Sri Lanka's Investment Story Now

Courtesy: http://seekingalpha.com/article/1119771-sri-lankas-investment-story-now?page=2

On my Sri Lanka Investing Blog which will be the hub of all my work about Sri Lanka, one of my readers wrote:

It looks to me in a preliminary way that Sri Lanka is in that select category of frontier markets which have a decent chance to evolve and progress into becoming emerging markets. There was a time not that many decades ago when countries we now think as emerging markets, Indonesia, South Africa, India for example, were in the nascent frontier stages of economic development. I believe that is a worthwhile long-term investment theme to consider.

- Valley Boy on Seeking Alpha, December 27, 2012

Sri Lanka has everything necessary to emerge into a higher level middle income country. It is a question of if the right policies are implemented and if businesses are ready to take the next steps.

Why Sri Lanka? Why Now?

I visited Sri Lanka for two weeks in October of 2012 and plan to make a return trip in July 2013. In my opinion, this is an exciting market set up for steady growth for years to come. And then, the contrarian in me really likes Sri Lanka because I do not think the investment opportunity is getting the attention it merits.

There are things one looks for when investing in a frontier market (NYSEARCA:FM) such as solid GDP growth, improving corporate governance and improving infrastructure. Frontier markets (NYSEARCA:FRN) offer the potential for high returns in countries developing from low per capita income toward, and beyond, global average per capita GDP and income. Sri Lanka checks all these boxes.

Sri Lanka's GDP growth on a linear chart looks like a J-curve where as the logarithmic chart shows that GDP has grown steadily for decade.

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Sri Lanka's GDP Growth, Linear Chart. Source: World Bank, Google Finance.

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Sri Lanka's GDP Growth, Logarithmic Chart. Source: World Bank, Google Finance.

Sri Lanka is a country going through many transitions. As Valley Boy said, Sri Lanka's business people tell me it is more of an emerging market than a frontier market. It is challenging to define when a country crosses the line from frontier market to emerging markets as discussed in a prior article on that topic. As a country that had a 26 year civil war until 2009, Sri Lanka has different connotations to people of different beliefs about the civil war.

Objectively, regardless of moral connotations, countries emerging from war-time and civil wars, are often ready for an economic boom. In the case of Sri Lanka, during the two years that followed the civil war, returns on the All Shares Index of the Colombo Stock Exchange averaged a little over 100% per year.

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Source: Bloomberg, CSE All Shares Index 5-year chart as of December 25, 2012.

To provide some context, one should understand going back into 2009 the stock exchange had lost about 50% of its value in the year prior to the post-civil war rally. Thus, if you invested one year too early, you lost half your money, then got back to break even, then doubled your money, in 3 years.

This is in the past now. The market has corrected. The Central Bank of Sri Lanka intervened to pull the economy back to stable growth rates, as Deputy Governor of the Central Bank Dr. Weerasinghe discussed in an interview recently published on Seeking Alpha.

What Morgan Stanley thinks in less than 200 words

Mr. Ruchir Sharma is a Managing Director, Head of global emerging markets equity team, Portfolio Manager, and Member of global tactical asset allocation investment committee at Morgan Stanley Investment Management Inc.

In May 2012, he penned an article for the Economic Times of India on Sri Lanka's peace dividend. His book, Breakout Nations, from which the article was excerpted was voted one of Foreign Policy's "21 books to read in 2012."

When I returned in 2011, the civil war had ended with surprising finality [in 2009]...

During the war years Sri Lanka grew half as fast as Korea and Taiwan and became another country in the long line of emerging-market disappointments. In the 1960s Singapore's Lee Kuan Yew had visited Sri Lanka to study it as a leading model of development...

Today it seems that Sri Lanka's time has come...

The civil war is over, the process of healing is under way, and there is every chance that Sri Lanka will again become a breakout nation. Despite slowing sharply during the war years, the economy continued to grow at an average pace of nearly 5 percent.

Why contrarian?

I mentioned in the first paragraph that I like Sri Lanka in part as a contrarian play. In this interview from February 2010, Leopard Capital announced they were raising money for a fund to invest in Sri Lanka. If you look at Leopard's team and their consulting partners, there's a who's who of frontier market investing starting with chairman Marc Faber. Yet, in 2010, with the stock exchange skyrocketing, Leopard Capital was not able to raise sufficient funds to start the fund. This is per recent conversations with two people who work with Leopard in Sri Lanka and with Leopard Capital at a conference in December 2012.



Source: CNBC Doug Clayton interview on YouTube about the opportunity to invest in Sri Lanka in 2010.

Frontier and emerging markets trends are currently focused on the letter M: Mongolia, Myanmar, Mozambique, and MISTs (Mexico, Indonesia, South Korea, Turkey; also known as "the next BRICs"). Frontier and emerging market people are focused on leveraging China's growth story. Meanwhile, the Indian sub-continent is a massively populous region that has its own particular economic factors which provide diversification from other markets. Sri Lanka has more particular qualities which I will discuss more in future articles.



Source: CNBC Alisher Ali interview about M3 (Mongolia, Myanmar, and Mozambique).

Conclusion and select news clips from Sri Lanka in December 2012

I have set up an instablog that links to select news clips from December that will focus mainly on central bank news, economic news and some corporate governance steps that continue to move Sri Lanka in a very positive direction. There is a little bit of tourism news as well, though infrastructure and tourism will be discussed more in future articles.

Important to all this news that generally points in a positive direction is that Sri Lanka's ruling party has the majority of seats in parliament, and there are no parliamentary or presidential elections that need to be scheduled until 2015 in all likelihood.

This means the below policies and developments from the news have stability for 2013 and 2014. That's a good bit of time to invest.

Regarding the Colombo Stock Exchange and business practices: What Sri Lanka needs is moves to improve structure, corporate governance, market breadth, market float, and hedging mechanisms. Based on meetings I had in October with Sri Lanka's SEC and business leaders, all these changes are in the works and being discussed.

Below is local monthly magazine Business Today's corporate governance ranking for 2011 (yellow) and 2012 (blue) of Sri Lanka's Top 25 companies. Two things that were important to me with this: (1) public business news agencies are paying attention to corporate governance and rewarding companies with improving practices; (2) when I met with the CEO of a company that scored low and asked him about it, he took immediate note of it as something to rectify.

(click to enlarge)


Source: Accompanying Business Today article from October 2012, link to chart at bottom.

Overall, the government and Central Bank's policies should be conducive to growth with lowering interest rates and inflation going forward. Additionally, a stabilizing exchange rate after a difficult 2012 may result in increasing foreign inflows.

With that, here is a link to news from December 2012. I took a one-month snapshot to see if readers see the same trends I do, or not, without my comments getting in the way.

How you can invest in Sri Lanka

Currently iShares Frontier Markets ETF (FM) has two Sri Lankan holdings.

Outside of Sri Lanka, there are two publicly-traded companies.

John Keells, the largest single conglomerate in Sri Lanka, trades in Luxembourg as well as in Sri Lanka.
Virtusa (NASDAQ:VRTU) is a Sri Lankan based information technology firm that trades on the NASDAQ.
Interested investors can also refer to my instablogs linked from my Sri Lanka Investing Blog home page:

Investing with investment funds similar to mutual funds and ETFs in Sri Lanka.
Investing with a stock brokerage in Sri Lanka.
Investing in bank deposits and income in Sri Lanka.
There are notes on currency risk as well as other things to consider in each of these blogs.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Comments (74)
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D-inv
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Good article. Thanks, Jon.
18 Jan 2013, 09:20 AMReply! Report AbuseLike4

Jon Springer , Contributor
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Author’s reply » Thanks D-Inv. The embedded videos are now working above (Thank you Seeking Alpha).
18 Jan 2013, 10:40 AMReply! Report AbuseLike4

Pompano Frog , Contributor
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Great article. Why was this not an editor's choice?
18 Jan 2013, 10:37 AMReply! Report AbuseLike4

Jon Springer , Contributor
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Author’s reply » Hi PompanoFrog,

Thanks for the kind words. It is actually an Editor's Pick now http://bit.ly/onYkLm. Thank you Seeking Alpha.
18 Jan 2013, 10:42 AMReply! Report AbuseLike5

D-inv
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Nice to see good work recognized. Actionable ideas couched in context of pertinent macro background info.
18 Jan 2013, 11:11 AMReply! Report AbuseLike7

Stilldazed
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Hi JS,
Still lurking and digesting the great info you provide.
18 Jan 2013, 11:03 AMReply! Report AbuseLike4

Jon Springer , Contributor
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Author’s reply » SD,

There's always time. Always better to be informed and comfortable. I am personally slowly averaging into the market and have only recently funded 12% of my goal for my own brokerage account in Sri Lanka.
18 Jan 2013, 11:45 AMReply! Report AbuseLike5

alpine
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Great article on a country that is on my 2013 "watch & act" list. But the problem for me is none of the usual stockbrokers are able to trade in this market. Are you able to help name some stockbrokers in Sri Lanka, and are there legal restrictions to non-residents opening an account with them?

I'm sure you've never heard this "angle" before, but somehow, I feel bullish that the next 10 years are going to be great for "Buddhist" countries, and I mean by this, roughly speaking, Sri Lanka, Thailand (already ran up quite a bit last year), Vietnam, Cambodia, and oh yes, China, Japan and Korea!!
19 Jan 2013, 06:23 AMReply! Report AbuseLike6

Jon Springer , Contributor
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Author’s reply » Greetings alpine,

On my list of stock brokerages in Sri Lanka, there is one brokerage (S C Securities) that "is the exclusive executing broker for JP Morgan in Sri Lanka." Brokerages list & blog (also appears on resource list at end of article) http://bit.ly/V1IA3Q

To a certain extent, I agree with you about many Buddhist countries having a good run in the next few years, although I think its more that quite a few countries stretching from the Indian subcontinent to Mongolia are going to have good runs. Along with the list of countries you mentioned I'd add to your Buddhist list with Myanmar, Laos, Bhutan, etc. I'll be going to Myanmar in the spring and if I can sort out the visas and travel, going to Bangladesh, Bhutan, and Sri Lanka (trip 2) over the summer.
19 Jan 2013, 08:55 AMReply! Report AbuseLike5

Arugam
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After 34+ years in Sri Lanka.
I find that my vision of 1977 may soon come true:
"Arugam Bay" has Sri Lanka's greatest potential!
I have been (and worked in 117 Countries.
But still think that THIS Bay is something very special.
To invest in.

Strange policies & Government involvement may be the only obstacle.
22 Jan 2013, 02:47 AMReply! Report AbuseLike5

Jon Springer , Contributor
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Author’s reply » Wikipedia on Arugam Bay: http://bit.ly/Svhnat
22 Jan 2013, 07:33 AMReply! Report AbuseLike3

ccschons
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Thorough and very helpful.

As you know, I'm looking into putting some money to work in SL.

Thank you.

--Chris Schons
18 Jan 2013, 07:08 PMReply! Report AbuseLike4

Sean Bellamy McNulty , Contributor
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Jon, great article, I'll definitely be investigating investment opportunities in Sri Lanka because of it.
18 Jan 2013, 10:38 PMReply! Report AbuseLike4

Singha Bahu
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Be aware that there is no law & order in Sri Lanka. Now It’s a lawless country and heading towards constitutional dictatorship. Last week, US State Department and US Ambassador in Sri Lanka warn about it.
“We’ve also made very clear our view that actions undermining an independent judiciary would impact on Sri Lanka’s ability to attract foreign investment,” State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland said.
Read the statements made by International Bar Association, the Bar Association of Sri Lanka, the Canadian Bar Association, Australian Bar ,the International Commission of Jurists, Commonwealth Lawyers’ Association, LAWASIA and the Bar Human Rights Committee of England and Wales, Commonwealth Secretary-General Kamalesh Sharma, United Nations, Canadian Prime Minister Harper.
I can send you details.
- Singha Bahu
19 Jan 2013, 02:11 AMReply! Report AbuseLike4

Jon Springer , Contributor
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Author’s reply » 1) Greetings Singha Bahu. I welcome all critiques and informed counterpoints. If you can post hyperlinks to web addresses with articles, they would be appreciated. I am happy for critiques of what is going on in Sri Lanka to be out in the open, and would prefer these exchanges be public, not private, so everyone hears all sides and can make their own informed decisions. For my own information, I currently subscribe to Groundviews (http://groundviews.org) to get a view that is different than those expressed by the government and most business people.

2) I believe there is progress being made in your country, and that it is moving forward. The process of moving toward a democratic, free and open society is slow and lumpy. In my own country, the United States, this is indeed also still a work in progress with periodic steps backward. Nowhere is perfect, but work toward improving should never stop. As Martin Luther King, Jr., said, "The arc of the moral universe is long, but it bends toward justice."

3) I will probably be publishing an article one or two times per month about Sri Lanka. To get updates whenever I publish an article on Seeking Alpha:

- a - Register as a user with Seeking Alpha.

- b - Go to one of my articles or blogs about Sri Lanka. Below my name will be the word "follow", click it and it will change to "following".

- c - Click "Alerts" along the top menu tab (just left of the green Pro tab)

- d - Scroll all the way down, and check the box for "author alerts" (2nd box from the bottom)

- e - Then you'll be notified by Seeking Alpha once per day of new articles by all authors you follow (in a single e-mail), myself included.

4) I look forward to more comments from you.
19 Jan 2013, 08:48 AMReply! Report AbuseLike5

Singha Bahu
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Thanks John,
I am a Sri Lankan (Sinhalese) investor. I have got some investment in Sri Lanka, and now regretting due to recent developments in the country. At the moment I am considering my options to pull out from Sri Lanka.
There are pretty good articles about situation in Sri Lanka can be found in Colombo Telegraph (http://bit.ly/UgITbd)

1. There was an interesting article about Sri Lankan democracy written in the Wall Street Journal (http://on.wsj.com/Xv8n2d).

2. “The financial sector in Sri Lanka is further destabilize by the unethical and illegal disclosure of bank account details of the Chief Justice thereby prompting relatively richer people including senior bureaucrats and politicians to stash their money overseas”. - Waning Economic Euphoria on 17/01/2013.
(http://bit.ly/UgITbi)

3. Sri Lanka's business community concerned over Chief Justice Impeachment
( http://bit.ly/Xv8nPP )

4. US position on Sri Lanka
( http://bit.ly/UgITbm )

5. Undermining the judiciary may lessen foreign investments: US Ambassador.
( http://bit.ly/Xv8nPR )

6. US says impeachment may impact foreign investments - State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland.
( http://bit.ly/UgITrC )

7. US deeply concerned over Sri Lanka's deteriorating democracy (http://bit.ly/Xv8n2h )

8. Harper rebukes Sri Lanka
(http://bit.ly/UgITrG)

9. For Sri Lanka, it's all in the family Read more: Columnist - New Straits Times (http://bit.ly/Xv8n2j )

I will try to provide more information on Sri Lanka.
22 Jan 2013, 02:59 AMReply! Report AbuseLike6

Jon Springer , Contributor
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Author’s reply » Thanks for that list Singha Bahu, and for taking the time to put it together. Reading...
22 Jan 2013, 07:36 AMReply! Report AbuseLike2

alpine
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To the external, dispassionate observer, Jon's comments seem to make eminent sense, and for so much orphaned investment $s, SL offers a compelling chance to repeat the "magic" of the likes of Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, Philippines, etc. Esp since China is now the SL's 'de facto' banker, defence counsel/supplier, industrialist, and infrastructure provider of last resort.

To some extent, it is easy to logicise that Mahinda Rajapaksa is taking the same high road Chairman Mao took some 50 years ago: once the victor, he forced the losers and anyone who was likely to oppose him to be sent off into the wilderness and if that were not possible, there were just eliminated from the system through all sorts of ways. So it is, it could be with SL's President, except I am old enough to suddenly think, hey this is SL not China, and what if suddenly there is a group of "communists" (maybe they'll call themselves Maoists) who resurge from nowhere in the system just to give the President and his cohorts a hard time.

They derailed the system 40+ years ago, could there not be the chance of such opposition arising from the Sinhalese community itself, which would make the President's attempt to recreate a "Long March Forward-cum-Cultural Revolution" a failure. If this scenario is not likely to pan out, then SL must come out tops as one of the top investment opportunities over the next decade.
22 Jan 2013, 02:36 PMReply! Report AbuseLike5

FreeStateYank
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Thank you, Singha Bahu, for the links. I'd like to branch out a bit into FM's, but am proceeding with extreme caution.
6 Mar 2013, 08:04 AMReply! Report AbuseLike2

magounsq
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Jon...

Another "still lurking and digesting" reader.
Good article capturing the big picture intro.
19 Jan 2013, 08:45 AMReply! Report AbuseLike5

Jon Springer , Contributor
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Author’s reply » Thank you magounsq.

As I said to SD, "There's always time. Always better to be informed and comfortable."

Just in case any commenters missed them, the three blogs linked at the end of the article on investments funds, brokerages, and banking, have a lot of other data.

http://bit.ly/WygKJv
http://bit.ly/V1IA3Q
http://bit.ly/V1IA3S
19 Jan 2013, 09:42 AMReply! Report AbuseLike5

Jon Springer , Contributor
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Author’s reply » Also, if any readers missed the hyperlink in the article, this is my earlier article about Sri Lanka interviewing the Central Bank of Sri Lanka (http://bit.ly/VgJkPl). I'm guessing some of you didn't read it as this article now has more page views than that one.
19 Jan 2013, 09:43 AMReply! Report AbuseLike4

1234gel
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Thank you Jon, and congratulations on a very well written article.

When visiting the country, did you have a particular reason in mind as to what singular fact might be driving the economy upward to GDP increase of 5%. Was it mining, cheap labor, or ???.
19 Jan 2013, 12:51 PMReply! Report AbuseLike5

Jon Springer , Contributor
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Author’s reply » Greetings 1234gel,

Your question about a "singular fact" is my great challenge in writing a series of articles to define Sri Lanka's growth story. There isn't one thing. There are many factors helping the economy grow.

Industrial zones are being created, new highways criss-crossing the country are being built, new ports and a new international airport are underway, the major port is adding two terminals, the Central Bank and SEC and financial sector are meeting regularly to discuss development & governance (I bumped into these meetings multiple times over two weeks), China is investing to have a foothold around India, India is investing to offset Chinese investment, some irrationally expensive luxury homes and luxury hotels are being built in the Central Business District (the homes are more irrational, but that's a real estate story for later), and so on.

Thus, I'm trying to slowly build with each article, and discuss various issues. It is not a simple story like a country with a natural resource boom (although there is also potential for oil and gas in Sri Lanka's international waters that one firm is looking for currently; and others with rights to other waters are waiting and watching).
19 Jan 2013, 01:05 PMReply! Report AbuseLike6

crozz
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Excellent article, as always !!!
19 Jan 2013, 03:09 PMReply! Report AbuseLike5

Rokjok777
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"Caviar Emptor"
Be careful with some of the "sure bet" frontier markets like Mongolia, Myanmar, Sri Lanka. In Myanmar for example, Westerners act like the country has been starved for their capital for a generation and now the flood gates are opening. The truth is that the locals have plenty of cash already and have already snapped up the juiciest deals. Recall this was the largest economy in SE Asia after WWII, 80 million people. The military/elite have been feasting on it ever since; do people think they have had no economy or business there in the meantime? Huge fortunes have already been made in jade, mining, consumer products, textiles. Sweet deals for things like the Coca-Cola franchise have already been struck, and the locals are just waiting for Western "hot money" to flow in and take the "bigger fools" for a ride. There are a few exceptions (mining concessions, offshore oil/gas deals) but Myanmar is NOT some kind of isolated sure thing capital multiplier.
Sri Lanka is quite similar: Sri Lankans operate a VERY closed global mafia-like club for opportunities. If you're in the club, fine, if you're not, good luck.
And Mongolia has wised up quite a bit and is now in some high-profile property rights disputes with early mining investors. Very unclear how/whether contract rule of law will be enforced.
I am a big fan of emerging and frontier investing but just wanted to inject a note of caution. The final caution of course comes in currency translation. One example is the Myanmar currency: jumps 10X twice a year when the big jade bazaar is held, then sinks back. The black market rate can be 50X the official rate. Which rate will YOUR investments be priced at? Hmm....
19 Jan 2013, 05:13 PMReply! Report AbuseLike9

Jon Springer , Contributor
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Author’s reply » Greetings Rock Jock 777,

Don't disagree with your basic premise and I have a tendency to discuss risks. If you read any of the three linked blogs on brokerages, investment funds, and banks, currency risk and outlook is discussed every time. The currency outlook is positive for the Sri Lankan Rupee at the moment, but certainly that can change, and the recent drop from the past year is on a chart for all to see.

I'm going to Myanmar in the spring because its the hot frontier market of the moment, and I write about frontier markets, and I'm chairing part of the Myanmar Investment Summit in Hong Kong. However, I've heard some of the issues you've raised about Myanmar, and that real estate is already too pricey, and that there's a lot of westerners walking around that don't what to do, and I'm a bit concerned that the legal framework for investments is really in very early days.

Mongolia's President just called off the so-called high-profile rights dispute, again. Every time this has been a controversy for the past 18 months, its always been called off without any change. The problem exists in the international media, and in populist political posturing that comes in election years. There are certainly issues in the mining sector in Mongolia, but much of this is more posturing, and western international media running with the story about the posturing as if its "a fait accompli" when its anything but that (yes, I said the same thing two sentences in a row to make a point). Are there risks in Mongolia: absolutely. Are there a lot of flawed laws on the books currently - yes. Has this caused FDI to dry up in a manner that will cause a bold reversal - probably. So let us remember in Mongolia that a minority of government politicians can't change laws, and can't change the Oyu Tolgoi agreement, period.

As for your statement, "Sri Lankans operate a VERY closed global mafia-like club for opportunities. If you're in the club, fine, if you're not, good luck." I think that's taking a metaphor a bridge too far. The community of business people is small, and there are associated networks of businessmen. But what you're suggesting could as well be said of Japanese, European, or American businessmen. Or, it could just be how business is done.
19 Jan 2013, 07:02 PMReply! Report AbuseLike6

Rokjok777
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Hi Jon, excellent responses, I just wanted to inject a few notes of caution into what I think is an excellent investment thesis. Talk about skating to where the puck will be. I'll look forward to upcoming posts, cheers>>
19 Jan 2013, 10:55 PMReply! Report AbuseLike3

Jon Springer , Contributor
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Author’s reply » Fair enough. Thank you.

For the record, our exchange, plus a few heated personal messages from folks that think I'm underselling risks, made me go back and look at my list of articles to see how often I've written negative notes on current events in Mongolia and or the international media's coverage of it. I know Mongolia better than Sri Lanka because I've been covering it longer and have more contacts there. But I will critique... and I am always looking to learn more...

+ Ivanhoe Mines' Share Price: Should It Go Down Like This? http://bit.ly/Xq5H56
+ Aluminum Corporation Of China, Coking Coal, The Gobi Desert, And An Investment Dust-Up (Corrected Version) http://bit.ly/HSZziv
+ SouthGobi/Chalco/Ivanhoe Deal Possibly Blocked: Is Mongolia's Investment Climate Ready For The Global Stage? http://bit.ly/IVZOrc
+ Mongolia: Inexplicable Politics And 3 Investable Companies http://bit.ly/PnS4GM
+ Mongolia Investment Climate At The Moment: Uh-Oh (my most popular Mongolia article by page views) http://bit.ly/Tu3qq5
+ Rio Tinto Vs. Mongolia, Destination Unknown http://bit.ly/T6JRmZ
+ Mongolia: No Bottom Calling Zone http://bit.ly/TzRBQ6
+ Will New SouthGobi Troubles Wreak Havoc On Turquoise Hill? http://bit.ly/ZnKPTI (Had to do an about face on this 3 days later.)
19 Jan 2013, 11:13 PMReply! Report AbuseLike5

Vimal
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Thanks for the informative article. Keep up the good work. If you would like a technical perspective to the Sri Lankan stock market, let me know and I'd be happy to contribute your work
19 Jan 2013, 11:38 PMReply! Report AbuseLike7

Jon Springer , Contributor
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Author’s reply » Vimal works at a brokerage in Sri Lanka which I will do my best to organize a meeting with on my next trip to Sri Lanka (but did not meet with last time). We corresponded earlier in the day Saturday. For those considering opening a brokerage account, his expertise is technical analysis; and if that is how you like to invest, you may want to ask him for a research sample.

My articles about Sri Lanka will be more focused on the macro picture, and will not get into much detail about the Colombo Stock Exchange as that is a bit beyond Seeking Alpha's scope at this time. I will on the other hand, try to provide enough resources to help readers evaluate whether or not they want to invest in Sri Lanka, and how to evaluate the risks of investing there.
19 Jan 2013, 11:58 PMReply! Report AbuseLike7

alpine
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Re: "My articles about Sri Lanka will be more focused on the macro picture", I feel it would be particularly useful to think about an "investment matrix model" which looks at the best potential companies to invest in, as a function of the country's "macro" picture:
- where are the Govt development priorities;
- where are the FDI flows going into, in terms of industry sectors;
- which areas are presenting the best potential for export growth in 2013 and beyond;
- where are the foreign remittances going to (e.g. which cities, which sectors); and last but not least,
- where is Chinese FDI "radar" honed in on.

Knowing a little about how informal but fun-filled Colombo can be, I wish you a trip of great good work and loads of fun!
20 Jan 2013, 07:39 AMReply! Report AbuseLike6

Jon Springer , Contributor
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Author’s reply » Hi Alpine,

Am trying to focus on
"- where are the Govt development priorities;
- where are the FDI flows going into, in terms of industry sectors;
- which areas are presenting the best potential for export growth in 2013 and beyond;
- where are the foreign remittances going to (e.g. which cities, which sectors); and last but not least,
- where is Chinese FDI "radar" honed in on."

Will try to get you good data along this journey...

Understand what you're asking, but this journey is also about developing a relationship with readers, other authors and SA's editors... as we all figure out what the reach of SA can be into frontier markets (something that is still developing after much discussion).
20 Jan 2013, 08:42 AMReply! Report AbuseLike5

alpine
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Jon,

I hope you don't take it the wrong way, but, please forgive me, I see you as a fully equipped/knowledgeable... "Rambo", not in terms of fighting to get hostages out, but this is almost, perversely, and of course, unfortunately, there are so many "known and unknown unknowns" to be taken out of these countries/systems....but of course, if there is an economic opportunity, somebody has to get in there.....I think you're well on the way myself, as from the little I know of Sri Lanka, it is a "good" country, with none of the "evils/complexes/hangups" that so many other countries seem to succumb to, and you know, there are some right next to Sri Lanka.

Having said that, there is an "intelligent" challenge, and in simple Asian terms, one could sign up so easily to the likes of countries/systems that have signed up for adaptive "Buddhism" and come to think of it, "Catholic" values, including the naked adoption of modernity (incl. its ugliness no doubt) so the smart investor is going to be the one that can get into this jungle, be aware of all the risks/opportunities.... and come back with nothing less than the "Goblet of Fire".

Meantime, if there are still decent 'pub scenes' in Colombo, that were difficult to discover (other than the Oberoi some 12 years ago), you're going to be a Cary Grant of modern times.

Either way, methinks, you have a very good "risk/return" profile in SL. Best of luck!
20 Jan 2013, 10:28 AMReply! Report AbuseLike5

Jon Springer , Contributor
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Author’s reply » Alpine,

I just made that comment an author's pick in shear awe of your referencing Rambo, Harry Potter, and Cary Grant in one post, all referring to one pivotal point. However, I am just a regular guy who buys plane tickets, speaks to people, and tries to relay a composite of meaningful information in digestible snippets.
20 Jan 2013, 01:58 PMReply! Report AbuseLike6

Bob Johnson , Contributor
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Jon, Good job on an interesting topic. Thanks, Bob J
20 Jan 2013, 05:01 AMReply! Report AbuseLike5

Jon Springer , Contributor
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Author’s reply » Sri Lanka makes it into The Economist on negative news: http://econ.st/T4NXBv

On a positive note, please note that freedom of the press in the country has allowed multiple local outlets to criticize this action.
20 Jan 2013, 08:29 AMReply! Report AbuseLike6

poke salad annie
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I don't claim to know anything at all about Sri Lanka (other than what I just learned, thank you) but the following quotes from the article/comments stopped me cold since my life is closer to its end point than its starting point and my patience is even more limited than that. But interesting info nonetheless.

"There was a time not that many decades ago when countries we now think as emerging markets, Indonesia, South Africa, India for example, were in the nascent frontier stages of economic development"

"In the 1960s Singapore's Lee Kuan Yew had visited Sri Lanka to study it as a leading model of development..."

"The process of moving toward a democratic, free and open society is slow and lumpy. In my own country, the United States, this is indeed also still a work in progress..."
20 Jan 2013, 10:44 AMReply! Report AbuseLike4

richardgere12
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Good story. I am believe in long term investment and I am also say that financial literacy and advanced money management skills aren't taught in school, many men and women follow a predictable path when it comes to investing.
21 Jan 2013, 07:36 AMReply! Report AbuseLike4

ccschons
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Excellent, illuminating discussion. Thank you all.

--Chris Schons
23 Jan 2013, 03:56 PMReply! Report AbuseLike2

Singha Bahu
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Couple of articles on unethical behavior and governance of Sri Lankan banking system for your referance.
Written by
1. President of the Bar Association of Sri Lanka and President’s Counsel Wijayadasa Rajapakse (http://bit.ly/XEwT0O)
and
2.Dr. Chandra Jayaratne - Fellow of the Institute of Chartered Accountants of Sri Lanka and of the Chartered Institute of Management Accountants, UK. Former President of the Ceylon Chamber of Commerce and LMD Sri Lankan of the Year - 2001. (http://bit.ly/TvU165).
25 Jan 2013, 05:51 AMReply! Report AbuseLike6

Jon Springer , Contributor
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Author’s reply » Thank you Singha Bahu.

I greatly appreciate you posting these. It helps both myself and my readers gain perspective.

Am thinking about how to address near-term problems with long-term view.
25 Jan 2013, 08:07 AMReply! Report AbuseLike5

MARKETWINNER
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Happy new year to all.

Very informative. One of the good articles I ever read.

I believe selected Asian and African frontier markets such as Vietnam, Sri-Lanka and Bangladesh will have great run in 2013 and 2014.

Among frontier markets Egypt, Kenya, Philippine and Pakistan had great bull market in 2012 despite some political and economic problems. Contrarian investors and value masters became great winner in those markets.

I believe contrarian and value players will have great opportune in Sri-Lankan market.

Factors to consider:

Higher tourist arrival
Development in infrastructure
Higher tea prices

These frontier markets have few commodities such as palm oil, tea, rubber, maize and rice etc. There are going to create great demand for food and hot beverages in the coming decade. Currently both tea and maize having a bull market. We can find listed infrastructure, power, food and plantations companies such as tea and rubber companies in frontier markets such as Kenya, Sri-Lanka and Vietnam. In addition there are multi nationak companies such as Nestle and Unilever in addition to well managed locally grown companies.

If we analyse Colombo stock market not only local players but also foreigners and foreign funds have invested in banks, tea companies, food companies and other groups including diversified groups.
27 Jan 2013, 12:21 AMReply! Report AbuseLike7

Singha Bahu
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Another couple of enlightening articles on Sri Lankan economy.

Factories closing after GSP loss .
http://bit.ly/WjMKod

Sri Lanka Will Never Achieve The Projected 7.5% GDP Growth For 2013
http://bit.ly/VJ4yYE
28 Jan 2013, 02:58 AMReply! Report AbuseLike4

MARKETWINNER
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I hope following links will give some idea about frontier markets including Sri-Lanka.

Mark Mobius sees best value in frontier markets for 2013

http://bit.ly/WpLsZ6

He especially likes Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Vietnam.

http://bloom.bg/YegcLT-uTVttIugQ8~QrQKVIspEX...

Why Is Now the Time to Invest in Frontier Markets

http://bit.ly/WpLtfm

Sri-Lanka amongst ideal frontier markets - HSBC
29 Jan 2013, 05:01 AMReply! Report AbuseLike6

Jon Springer , Contributor
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Author’s reply » Thanks MW.

The 2nd link got broken. If you have the time for it, if you run it through http://tinyurl.com, we'll get a working link.

Going to Bangladesh (1st time) and Sri Lanka (2nd time) this summer during monsoon season.
29 Jan 2013, 06:53 PMReply! Report AbuseLike5

MARKETWINNER
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I will send you more details on frontier markets later.

http://bloom.bg/UBPygm

If you want to meet experienced and professional people in the financial sector to do you home work in Bangladesh please let me know. I can give their contact details.

I hope by the time you visit there market can go to the next level and can trade in the range of next box level.

Best regards
30 Jan 2013, 01:57 AMReply! Report AbuseLike5

Singha Bahu
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Interesting article appeared in Melbourne Age on Sri Lankan Economy.

"'People's dynasty' dampens Sri Lanka's boom"

http://bit.ly/1295ZoO
30 Jan 2013, 06:56 AMReply! Report AbuseLike4

Jon Springer , Contributor
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Author’s reply » Thank you Singha Bahu.
30 Jan 2013, 09:23 AMReply! Report AbuseLike3

Singha Bahu
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The American Bar Association urges the President Rajapaksa to restore judicial independence in Sri Lanka.

http://bit.ly/XTRAW6
5 Feb 2013, 11:48 AMReply! Report AbuseLike3

Jon Springer , Contributor
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Author’s reply » FDR tried to stack the Supreme Court in his favor when it suited him, and some still believe he intimidated them into voting in his favor. (http://bit.ly/VEcclC) There are still lingering questions about Justice Roberts vote on Obamacare and how he was convinced to flip-flop in favor of Obamacare.

The system for appointing judges in the U.S. leads to many questions about actual judicial independence, and federal judges are vetted in part based on their political beliefs being in-line with those of the current sitting president.

I'd be happy if the ABA worried a bit more about judicial independence, and how to improve it, in its own country. They could also work on tort reform and a few other things, but if I go on I will digress into my litany of complaints about my own country - and no one cares about that.
6 Feb 2013, 12:39 PMReply! Report AbuseLike3

MARKETWINNER
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On frontier markets including Sri-Lanka and few African countries:

http://on.wsj.com/11GH2Bg

February 1, 2013, 1:14 p.m. ET
.
Investors Look to Frontier Stocks as Larger Emerging Markets Stumble.

Some of the factors to watch in this article are:

We are not excited about every frontier nation that wants to become an emerging market," said Conrad Saldanha, managing director of Neuberger Berman's Emerging Markets Equity Fund.

In Pakistan, for example, Mr. Saldanha says the banks have sound financials but he hasn't bought shares in these companies because of potential political instability.

However in Sri Lanka--which is coming back from decades of civil war--the country's financial institutions, local food companies and tea exporters are attractive buys, Mr. Ghosh said.

Similarly, Lawrence Speidell, founding partner of Frontier Market Asset Management with $115 million in assets, is betting on consumer-goods maker Unilever in Ghana.

His firm has also bought stocks of several other companies in sub-Saharan Africa

Some predicted DOW will go to 5000. Now it climbed above14,000 and intelligent investors can reap their harvest now.

Investors are increasingly turning to remote stock markets as growth stagnates in emerging-market stalwarts like Brazil and Poland
Previously, frontier equity trades were popular mostly among short-term investors, but now the prospects of sustained growth are driving buy-and-hold investors to take the risk.

"The frontier countries are at the stages of development that emerging markets were at 10 to 15 years ago, so they have a lot of upside potential.

Kunal Ghosh, who manages the $166 million AllianzGI Emerging Markets Opportunities Fund, is building an equity fund that will focus on frontier assets and is expected to go live in the next few months.

Investor flows into these frontier-market stocks have totaled $90 million so far this year, almost half of the $194 million added in all of 2012, according to EPFR Global.
5 Feb 2013, 11:51 AMReply! Report AbuseLike3

Jon Springer , Contributor
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Author’s reply » Thank MW!
6 Feb 2013, 12:40 PMReply! Report AbuseLike0

TomasViewPoint
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I visited SL about 8 years ago and stayed at Negombo Beach in a very nice hotel with great service for a great price. The people were all great but the war was still going on so security was very tight in and out of the country and all over Colombo. I thought without the war going on this would be a huge tourist destination.

Another highlight was when I was in Colombo and went to the World Trade Center where the SL exchange is located. I wanted to visit the floor but it was a holiday and was closed. However the people were so nice they offered to open it up for me and give me a tour. Now if only I would have bought some stock.

Instead I went to one of the gold shops in the tower and bought some gold which did not work out bad either.
5 Feb 2013, 02:02 PMReply! Report AbuseLike5

Jon Springer , Contributor
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Author’s reply » Greetings TVP,

Tourism is expected to quarduple by 2020, and I think that's a very reasonable goal.

There is a lot Sri Lanka has to offer to tourists if the political stability is lasting.
6 Feb 2013, 12:47 PMReply! Report AbuseLike3

MARKETWINNER
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Hi TomasViewPoint

We all make mistakes in the investment world. All are busy with doing research on popular stocks, commodities, countries and markets. They forget out of favour stocks, commodities, countries and markets.

Remember one time countries such as Kenya, Egypt, Pakistan and Nigeria were out of favour markets due to political risk and violence. Some investors and investment funds took positions before others. They made some of the biggest capital gain due to bull markets there in 2012.

Today, there are hundreds of our of favour stocks with long bases for our research in addition to out of favour commodities
5 Feb 2013, 04:46 PMReply! Report AbuseLike6

alpine
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Do you care to share say, your top 10 "out of favour stocks", as it seems the rising tide has already lifted all stocks, worldwide!
5 Feb 2013, 10:58 PMReply! Report AbuseLike2

Schumpeter_1
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Hi Marketwinner

Nice to meet you. Seems like I share many interests, passions and enthusiasm with you. (As Jon can testify.. )

Though quite a few things continue to worry me.
Foremost the fact that Frontier Markets (FM) seem to lose their status as "contrarian" play. Stock values have sky-rocketed (Nagacorp, Kolao, Bolore SA, Yoma, Super Group, Viz Brands, First REIT), M&A has intensified (Portek International, CFAO) and there is this ever increasing pile of mutual funds and thickening investor reports on FM created by financial institutions.
I like to fly under the radar. Before being spotted by big banks and asset managers.

I also do not like the worldwide "consensus" on inflation (= glut of liquidity driving Frontier Markets). Does not feel right to me, as a true contrarian.
Likewise I do not like the notion of "China as an engine to global economy", which is heard everywhere and which MUST drive all FM growth-stories. It feels like there is a kind-a-like of Vietnam crisis for China in-the-make: an oversupply of real-estate, bad loans, etc.=> not very beneficial to FM.

Hope I will meet you with other SA contributions made by Jon.
8 Feb 2013, 02:48 PMReply! Report AbuseLike6

Singha Bahu
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Another local article on Sri Lankan economy.

http://bit.ly/VIwpXv
8 Feb 2013, 06:58 AMReply! Report AbuseLike4

TomasViewPoint
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What are the names of the families that really run SL and how much of the wealth do they control?

And what is the gap between the rich and the poor?
8 Feb 2013, 12:15 PMReply! Report AbuseLike3

MARKETWINNER
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Hi Schumpeter_

It is nice to meet you too

Yes I agree with you that some Frontier Markets (FM) seem to lose their status as "contrarian" play. However three are great value plays provided we do home work. Yes no market will go straight up or down. I agree with some of your points. Great.

Even in China we will see some sort of pullback or economic problems time to time. When that happens even countries like Australia can become vulnerable. Australia export lot of commodities to China. Now I am bearish on both Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar before others.

It is very simple what happened in stocks market in the past will happen again and again in the future in a different manner. Therefore we should have some sort of our own successful investment or trading strategy. I like business only which I can understandable.

Look because of some doom sayers in the past many lost opportunities in Europe. Only thing I can say is always there will be bull market for some commodities, some markets and some sectors. For example both Tea and Corn started their bull trend in the last quarters of 2012. Now there is shortage in black tea. Corn production has come down due to bad weather in USA. Then we need mid and long term trend analysis on some sectors, some commodities and some markets. So far in 2013 markets are up including frontier markets such as Vietnam, Sri-Lanka. You know some experienced and intelligent players both foreign and local know how to and when to invest in these markets. When valuations are very attractive we should not think twice as long as future look bright.

Future earnings, future intermediate and long term trends are my friends.

Time to time some sectors, markets and companies can become out of favor. So some contrarian players know how to play these markets. You know when CITI BANK was trading around $3 in the past nobody wanted to touch it due to big sell off in financial stocks globally. It became a more than $30 dollar baggar later. For my surprise one out of favor finance companies in New Zealand in the past have become more than three baggar now.

Remembers some markets, sectors, commodities and stocks have not appreciated yet. Some are in the out of favor brackets. Some were in bear market period and just start their next bull trend.

Stock market is a wonderful place. Everybody was talking about bad global economic shape especially about Europe, credit crisis etc. Still we had opportunities in different commodities, stocks and markets at different times.We will have more opportunities in the future.

Just like other markets in 2011 there were heavy foreign inflows to Sri-Lankan market in 2012. Even now some players are accumulating stocks slowly. We know market has stages. Early stage of bull market, second stage etc. When final stage comes we know how market look like?

May be I will talk about individual stocks globally when I am prepared to do it. I always concentrate on few stocks, commodities, sectors and few markets. I like only next most promising commodities, markets, sectors, groups and stocks now.

Among global investment gurus I respect few. Their ideas are great and very valuable to me when I pick wining stocks. In addition boring is beautiful to me.

Please see Bloomberg track on CSE Market:

http://bloom.bg/XkEZ1V

Snapshot for Sri Lanka Colombo Stock Exchange All Share Index (CSEALL)

Sri Lanka Colombo Stock Exchange All Share Index

CSEALL:IND 5,850.67 40.25 0.69% UP

Open: 5,812.72 Day Range: 5,812.72 - 5,859.65 Year To Date: +3.68%

Previous Close: 5,810.42 52-Week Range: 4,725.57 - 6,005.90 1-Year: +10.04%

Index Profile Information for CSEALL

Sri Lanka Stock Market Colombo All-Share Index is a market capitalization weighted index of all the companies listed on the Colombo Stock Exchange. It covers all the traded companies during a market day. The base value is established with average market value as of the year 1985.

Best regards
9 Feb 2013, 11:19 PMReply! Report AbuseLike5

Schumpeter_1
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I agree with you on what you are saying.

I got more a kind of a personal problem. I am no. 1 fan of front running liquidity and hardly accesible assets, i.e. Frontier Markets or niche asset classes. But as a supporter of contrarian investing more and more the forbidden "D" word comes in my mind.Which would ruin everything I am so excited of.

It reminds me also of what Marc Faber or jim Rogers was saying. He liked gold. But it discomforted him that it became public opinion.

I am getting a bit scared of heights in the FM.
10 Feb 2013, 06:31 AMReply! Report AbuseLike3

Schumpeter_1
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I also feel kind a discomfort with the notion of "China's century", like Jim Rogers is doing = "move to China, learn Chinese" and so on. Although I am quite young (32 yr) I heard from retired brokers it was the same with Japan late 80s. They told me because I was also one of these China proclaimers.

But still I believe in Frontier Markets, ...long term.
10 Feb 2013, 06:40 AMReply! Report AbuseLike4

MARKETWINNER
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Please see following link

http://bit.ly/VOJsXq
11 Feb 2013, 12:07 AMReply! Report AbuseLike3

Singha Bahu
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Few more articles on Sri Lankan Economy.

1. Bloomberg
http://bloom.bg/ZfTuDF
2. Without IMF, Lanka’s credit risk profile at risk
http://bit.ly/ZqYwkE
20 Feb 2013, 05:48 AMReply! Report AbuseLike5

MARKETWINNER
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Different frontier markets will have different opportunities at different times. In frontier markets there will be opportunities in finance, food and beverages, plantations, infrastructure and diversified sectors in the coming years and decade. However we should have strategy to pick future winners from these markets and we need some home work. If we analyse some of these markets there are different players such as long term investors, short term players and some other sophisticated players etc. At the moment we can see some foreign inflow to Colombo stock market. Some of them have targets diversified sector, retail and Tea plantations. For example if I am correct there were some foreign buying in plantations, diversified sector and retail related companies during last couple of days in the Colombo stock market.

In one period some frontier and emerging markets will have great bull markets. During last couple of months and in 2012 we had bullish markets in Kenya, Egypt, Pakistan and Philippine etc. Similarly Next couple of months and coming years we will see bullish trend in other frontier markets. Some intelligent players including Funds became bullish on above markets before others. Now they are bullish on few Asian markets such as Bangladesh, Sri-Lanka and Vietnam. Some of these intelligent players also became bullish on developed markets such as Japan, USA, UK and Germany before others. Similarly they became bullish on emerging world such as India as well.

In some other period some other frontier and emerging markets will have opportunities. Then some sectors can outperform other sectors due to great demand for their products within their own markets. In addition some sleeping giants in western countries such as USA, Germany, UK and Netherland will have great growth during coming years and decade due to great demand for their products from emerging world and frontier world.

In short we will have opportunities in all types of markets in the coming decade. Just like stocks market different commodity will have bull markets at different times. WE can also find commodity oriented stocks in frontier and emerging world. Some soft commodities and some hot beverages will have demand and supply mismatch in the coming years and decade due to strong demand from emerging and frontier markets.
15 Mar 2013, 07:41 PMReply! Report AbuseLike4

MARKETWINNER
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I believe in the short run we will see market volatility, pull back and correction in over valued markets, sectors and commodities in all types of markets such as developed, emerging and frontier markets. In the short run we will see some volatility in Sri-Lankan market just like other markets. In the mid and long run we will see bull markets everywhere. It is time to think about great value and mid and long term growth opportunities. It is also time to identify next bullish sectors in Sri-Lankan market. Finally it is time to study positive affects of tapering rather than taking it negatively.

Tapering is not the end of the world. Actually some areas in the global economy will benefit lot after this tapering. It is time to identify coming bull sectors globally in developed, emerging and frontier world. In short tapering will bring sustainable development. This is good for mid and long term developments in all types of assets markets. Sooner we see tapering it is better.
1 Sep 2013, 03:58 AMReply! Report AbuseLike1

Jon Springer , Contributor
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Author’s reply » This article - http://onforb.es/18GUzbu - about Sri Lanka was also in the print edition of Forbes Asia, now has over 60,000 page views (despite numerous illegal reprintings), and led to me getting contracted as a contributor at Forbes Asia's website.

It's a new year, and I give thanks to that interview for a new start after a 2013 riddled with health an personal issues. I apologize for the lack of responsiveness to comments above due to those issues.

You can find and follow me on the Forbes Asia website here: http://onforb.es/18GUwwn

I will also be writing periodically on Seeking Alpha as well.
2 Jan 2014, 09:53 PMReply! Report AbuseLike5

alpine
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As is the case with living "live" fully, and searching relentlessly for one's "true calling", roadblocks do appear along the way, from time to time. In your case, you've gone out of your way to find "unpolished gems, polished them, and gracefully shared its rarity" to SA readers.

Hence, your life is a precious one, so I pray you will treasure it, honour it, put impediments of any kind behind you, and carry on living your passion.

For people like me, we appreciate your insightful, well researched, highly referenced research work, and since it focuses on undiscovered "gems", I appreciate that the work is that much more demanding and harder.

Best wishes for continuing in 2014 with good health, personal joy and a 'major issues'less life.
4 Jan 2014, 04:03 AMReply! Report AbuseLike5

Jon Springer , Contributor
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Author’s reply » Dear Alpine,

Thanks so much for the incredibly kind note. Read it three times and paused for a few minutes to appreciate it.

All the best to you and your family in the new year,
Jon
5 Jan 2014, 03:32 AMReply! Report AbuseLike3

MARKETWINNER
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Hi Jon

Hope you have recovered fully. Thank you for sharing your research work and sending me your message through LinkedIn.

I wish you a New Year Filled With Peace, Joy, Health and Happiness!
5 Jan 2014, 02:39 PMReply! Report AbuseLike2

Jon Springer , Contributor
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Author’s reply » Here is a link to a long interview with Leopard Capital that is very positive on Sri Lanka, as well as touching on a number of other interesting countries including Cambodia, Bangladesh & Myanmar. http://onforb.es/1jgti8N
19 Jan 2014, 10:24 PMReply! Report AbuseLike3

Jon Springer , Contributor
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Author’s reply » Real Estate Gems In Sri Lanka With Steradian Capital http://onforb.es/1fPba39
28 Feb 2014, 09:17 PMReply! Report AbuseLike2

Jon Springer , Contributor
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Author’s reply » For a current update on this article, please see my interview with Softlogic Stockbrokers of Sri Lanka on Forbes Asia:
http://onforb.es/1iEuDUw

To stay up-to-date on my posts you can follow me on Forbes, on Twitter @FrontierWriter (http://bit.ly/1iEuDUy) or check this blog on Seeking Alpha where I keep my 5 most recent articles up-to-date at the top and sort my posts by country:
http://bit.ly/1fqlgYJ