HOLD OR AVERAGE Poultry Sector

raider wrote:The Island's biggest funds - EPF & ETF, also the largest institutional shareholders of BFL & GRAN apart from the controlling shareholders are selling out the sector at heavy discounts.

If we are to analyse this situation in detail:

Roughly 17.50% of BFL will be sold in the price range of 116.00 - 240.00
The 17.50% sale of BFL in two stages - 
9.10% between 116.00 and 207.00 - those who bought this quantity can still make a decent profit at CMP, so the selling session is understandable
8.40% between 220.00 and 240.00 - those who bought from this lot must not sell at a loss unless for credit clearing purposes as the share trades at heavy discounts to its immediate potential

Assuming that EPF triggered its sell of roughly 8.90% of GRAN during last quarter and is still in the process, this transaction is in the price band of 49.80 - 115.00.

The valuations of the three listed poultry companies - BFL, GRAN & TAFL are very attractive as of now which has convinced many HNI and institutional shareholders to enter the stock. 

Therefore, it is possible that these counters will soon take a rebound and rally towards a reasonable valuation during which at least a gain of 10% from CMP could be expected.


Also, I'm looking at these counters as a mid-long term investment because the public holding is very satisfactory 40-50% plus, the shares in issue are in the range of 16-50 million. This could easily call for a share split that will encourage investors to revisit valuations and usually multiply prices.

I urge community not to panic sell and invest wisely.

raider wrote:......................Also, I'm looking at these counters as a mid-long term investment................
I urge community not to panic sell and invest wisely...........

peacockman wrote:

raider wrote:The Island's biggest funds - EPF & ETF, also the largest institutional shareholders of BFL & GRAN apart from the controlling shareholders are selling out the sector at heavy discounts.

If we are to analyse this situation in detail:

Roughly 17.50% of BFL will be sold in the price range of 116.00 - 240.00
The 17.50% sale of BFL in two stages - 
9.10% between 116.00 and 207.00 - those who bought this quantity can still make a decent profit at CMP, so the selling session is understandable
8.40% between 220.00 and 240.00 - those who bought from this lot must not sell at a loss unless for credit clearing purposes as the share trades at heavy discounts to its immediate potential

Assuming that EPF triggered its sell of roughly 8.90% of GRAN during last quarter and is still in the process, this transaction is in the price band of 49.80 - 115.00.

The valuations of the three listed poultry companies - BFL, GRAN & TAFL are very attractive as of now which has convinced many HNI and institutional shareholders to enter the stock. 

Therefore, it is possible that these counters will soon take a rebound and rally towards a reasonable valuation during which at least a gain of 10% from CMP could be expected.


Also, I'm looking at these counters as a mid-long term investment because the public holding is very satisfactory 40-50% plus, the shares in issue are in the range of 16-50 million. This could easily call for a share split that will encourage investors to revisit valuations and usually multiply prices.

I urge community not to panic sell and invest wisely.

well said RAIDER!

1. it is possible that these counters will soon take a rebound and rally towards a reasonable valuation - between Nov 2015-Mar 2016

2.  the public holding is very satisfactory 40-50% plus, the shares in issue are in the range of 16-50 million - Tafl : only 1 million in Public's Hand. Gran : only 1.16 million in Public's Hand. Bfl : only 1.2 million in Public's Hand. 
3. I urge community not to panic sell and invest wisely. - well said!