The bet against chicken producers amid stock rise

What we can see in chicken companies globally!
 
 
 
 
 
Please do home work before buying and selling stocks especially in market situation like today.

http://www.nasdaq.com/article/top-6-consumer-staples-stocks-for-the-q4-earnings-season-cm573772
 
Top 6 Consumer Staples Stocks For the Q4 Earnings Season

The Way to Pick the Right Stocks 

Obviously, there are quite a few companies in the consumer staples space, so it may be difficult to pick the right stock for your portfolio. One way to narrow down the list of choices is by looking at stocks with a favorable Zacks Rank of #1 (Strong Buy), #2 (Buy) or #3 (Hold) - and a positive Earnings ESP . 

Earnings ESP is our proprietary methodology to determine which stocks have the best chance to surprise in their next earnings announcement. It shows the percentage difference between the Most Accurate estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate. Our research shows that for stocks with this combination, the chance of positive earnings surprise is as high as 70%. 

Here are six consumer staple stocks currently equipped with the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat: 

6 Prominent Choices 

Dean Foods Company ( 
DF
 ), which processes and distributes milk, and other dairy and dairy case products in the United States. The stock carries a Zacks Rank #3 and has an Earnings ESP of +5.88%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the fourth quarter of 2015 stands at 34 cents a share. The Dallas, TX-based company delivered an average positive earnings surprise of 17.03% over the trailing four quarters and has a long-term earnings growth rate of 10.5%. The company is slated to report results on Feb 9. 

B&G Foods, Inc. ( 
BGS
 ), which makes and markets packed and easy-to-store food and household products. The stock holds a Zacks Rank #3 and has an Earnings ESP of +6.52%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the fourth quarter of 2015 stands at 46 cents a share. 
This Parsippany, NJ-based company registered an average positive earnings surprise of 6.72% over the trailing four quarters, and has a long-term earnings growth rate of 12.97%. The company is expected to report results on Feb 17. 

Tyson Foods, Inc. ( 
TSN
 ), the world's largest fully-integrated producer, processor and marketer of 
chicken and poultry-based food products. Based in Springdale, AR, Tyson Foods carries a Zacks Rank #2 and has an Earnings ESP of +1.15%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the first quarter of fiscal 2016 (ending December) stands at 87 cents a share. The stock has a long-term earnings growth rate of 11.00%. The company is expected to report results on Feb 5. 

Dr Pepper Snapple Group Inc . ( 
DPS
 ) can also be an attractive stock for investors. This beverage company has a Zacks Rank #3 and an Earnings ESP of +2.06%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the fourth quarter of 2015 stands at 97 cents a share. The stock has a long-term earnings growth rate of 7.74%. The company is expected to report results on Feb 11. 

PepsiCo Inc. ( 
PEP
 ), this Purchase, NY-based company registered an average positive earnings surprise of 5.81% over the trailing four quarters. Currently, it has a Zacks Rank #3 and an Earnings ESP of +0.94%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the fourth quarter of 2015 stands at $1.06 a share. The stock has a long-term earnings growth rate of 6.90%. The company is expected to report results on Feb 11. 

Treehouse Foods, Inc. ( 
THS
 ), a food manufacturer, which holds a Zacks Rank #3 and has an Earnings ESP of +2.97%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the fourth quarter of 2015 stands at $1.01 per share. 
This Oak Brook, IL-based company has a long-term earnings growth rate of 6.33%. The company is expected to report results on Feb 11. 

Bottom Line 

We believe that investing in these companies, which have an earnings beat potential, should yield strong returns for your portfolio in the short term.

VALUEPICK wrote:

Currently poultry related stocks are trading around P/E ratio 7 to 17 in global markets.

 

Therefore, I believe there could be more demand for lower P/E stocks having attractive financial ratios and good prospects. There is a chicken play in global markets now.

 
Please do home work before buying and selling stocks especially in market situation like today.

Yes VP. Extremely correct.
In sri Lankan market, BFL is very strong & they are under further massively growth stage. Already BFL reports 27 EPS for their 09 months and I expect 36 to 40 Year end EPS. Currently BFL is trading around 5 EPS.

But, strongly I belive TAFL is under massive and massive and massively growth stage & already 09 months they reports 14 around EPS. But, I expect from TAFL to report around 10 EPS for their last quarter and end up with 23 to 25 range. I think they can achieve my target. So, 25 EPS x 7 PER seems , TAFL can trade Rs.175/- range in coming months. I strongly belive, people are not late and TAFL would be a biggest winning stock in coming 03 months.
Accordingly BFL will reach Rs.240/- target and GRAN will trade Rs.120/-.

Good luck.

TOP-DOWN, BOTTOM-UP, OR SOMETHING IN-BETWEEN?


by TIM SEYMOUR on FEBRUARY 4, 2016 · LEAVE A COMMENT
 
http://emergingmoney.com/uncategorized/top-down-bottom-up-or-something-in-between/
 
Quoted following information from the above link.
 
What to do? Our approach is rooted in fundamental company analysis; we scour markets for good companies first and perform inordinate diligence on the real world business and its prospects. However, we then employ what we call a “macro overlay”, highlighting the big picture variables that can frustrate the process of value realization for the individual company. One added benefit of assessing these variables is they often form into themes that narrow the bottom-up stock picking process.
 
For example, declining commodity prices have resulted in low inflation in commodity-importing South Asian nations and are good for consumer stocks. Our macro overlay is also used to eliminate certain countries altogether, such as Iraq where the security situation prevents investors’ from conducting on the ground due-diligence and Ukraine where exceedingly high levels of toxic assets in the banking sector profoundly inhibit economic activity.
 
Let’s move away from theory and look at a few case studies. All three examples are from South Asia, my area of focus as an analyst.

The Return of Orthodox Policy
 
In 2013 a large number of political analysts had forecast a hung parliament in the run-up to Pakistan’s legislative elections. This came despite a highly unsuccessful stint at the helm of government by the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP). Widespread corruption allegations, an inability to exercise economic reforms demanded by the IMF and high inflation, due to printing large amounts of money to finance the country’s deficits, all lead to a decided lack of popularity. Despite this dynamic, the party was perceived to be entrenched.
The election results surprised most everyone as the conservative Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N) consolidated enough seats to form an independent government. The new government moved swiftly and entered a new IMF program to avoid a balance of payments crisis, injected liquidity into an energy sector burdened with circular debt and realigned towards orthodox economic policies overall. Unsurprisingly, stock market returns from the election date till end of 2014 were a massive 68% in local currency terms.

End of War
 
Sri Lanka experienced a major inflection point in 2009. In May of that year Sri Lanka’s civil war ended after a 26 year conflict. The war had led to massive expenditures by the government, with the bulk of the funds allocated to financing the fighting. The result was high levels of debt, a high fiscal deficit, lots of money printing and severe inflation. The end of the war was a watershed moment as the government could finally shift wasteful military expenditure and refocus on the development of the country, bringing large infrastructure projects to formerly war torn areas. The outcome was an immediate reduction in inflation as supply chains improved, a declining fiscal deficit and a big jump in GDP growth. Between the end of 2008 and early 2011, the equity market returned 381%. It’s worth mentioning that there was definitely an overreaction in equity prices, as the index is yet to exceed its 2011 high. Nevertheless, the structural change in the Sri Lankan economy caused by the end of the war transformed the fortunes of the country.

Structural Change
 
After two years of rule by an interim government backed by the army, Bangladesh held an election in December 2008 which resulted in the Awami League’s return to power with a massive majority, winning 76% of the electoral seats. On the new government’s immediate agenda was to increase power generation. But instead of building large, long-duration fixed asset power plants, they relied on oil-fueled rental power plants. The end result was a large change in the energy mix towards oil instead of natural gas. Meanwhile, oil prices which had hit $44 per barrel in early 2009 rose rapidly and exceeded $100 by the same time in 2011. This resulted in a deteriorating current account position and lead to currency depreciation of about 18% in 2011. In addition, the government couldn’t pass through the increased costs resulting in high subsidies financed by bank borrowing (crowding out the private sector). High double digit inflation coupled with this crowding out lead to a massive liquidity crunch as banks had to take time deposits at 14%. The country was forced to take IMF support and implement reforms such as energy price hikes and tight monetary policy to get the economy back on track. By 2013, the situation started to normalize, and from late 2013 to the end of 2014 the MSCI Bangladesh index returned an impressive 36%.

As these examples illustrate, economic conditions can change quite rapidly in developing markets. And these changes directly impact company fundamentals through cash flows or discount rates (i.e. risk free rates and risk premiums). Having a means of filtering the effects of global movements in interest rates, currencies and commodities can avoid costly investment errors.