Rubber price!!

Rajitha · 1 Rubber price!! Mon Jun 13, 2011 9:04 am

Rajitha

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As I predicted and I been saying Rubber prices are on increase since last April and they are now near Rs 700 range again for near a month!! Well I'm not surprised like most experts here talking of the demise and downfall of rubber prices when its trading at Rs 550s saying it will go down even more !!
So once again as I expected these are the latest rubber prices!!
June 7
LC No.1X 690.00 - 690.25
LC No.1 675.00 - 690.00
LC No.2 650.00 - 685.25

Junes 2nd
Latex Crepe No.1X 689.25 - flat 689.25
Latex Crepe No.1 665.00 - 689.25 677.13
Latex Crepe No.2 640.00 - 665.00 652.50

Lets see some anicdotes of the so called forum experts said rubber price was below Rs 600 now!!

innam wrote:
One in-between thing that you've missed is yesterday's oil price collapse
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/commodities/8497774/Oil-price-extends-sharp-falls-on-growth-fears.html

when oil falls, synthetic rubber prices fall and since it is a substitute for NR in certain industries NR prices can face downward pressure. NR prices will also be hurt if global economic growth slows

of course you can never accurately predict commodity prices so who knows what will happen next week.....

tubal wrote:
Thanks innam, I had actually just hit the send button when the system notified me of your post. Your have said what I have to and done it much better but i will add my 2 cents anyway:

Kindly refer these news items: Sri Lanka Tea Prices Fall: http://lbo.lk/fullstory.php?nid=92285926

And this more recent link on the business-standard.com which contradicts their previous article linked to by milanka. http://www.business-standard.com/india/news/natural-rubber-prices-dip-17-inweekimproved-supplies/434598/

And this link about global commodity prices falling. Crude price drop is bad news for rubber:
http://www.newstatesman.com/economy/2011/05/crude-consecutive-prices-drop

Please also note that rubber prices started declining before the Japanese tsunami, what was seen in recent weeks is temporary uptrend. This is pretty much like how people were saying in the second week of october that the share prices will keep on going up.

And best one to insult me after posting of my father even and deleting it afterwards!!

tubal wrote:

Rajitha don't assume that you are the only one who knows about rubber prices. In fact, what I can tell you is that little knowledge is dangerous. As I mentioned in my post what we are seeing is a temporary uptrend in a medium term down trend..

The rubber prices have not been updated since the global decline. Please also note that the thai, malaysian and indonesian plantations will be out of wintering soon.

But you are free to dream on, and I will be gloating at you just like you were gloating at the chicken farmer. Oh and BTW, I've been warning about the chicken run since the days of investnow and most recently, I called the recent high on BFL as a double top.

I'm still waiting for those rubber prices drop below Rs 500 mark!! Lets wait a more and see I Guess as they might say!!

Max · 2 Re: Rubber price!! Mon Jun 13, 2011 9:24 am

Max

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I guess the wage issue brought down the plantations as a whole....

But plantations with significant rubber and palm sections would be able to absorb the hit, as less manpower needed,
And as prices are on the rise, as rajitha pointed out.
but unfortunately tea will take a hit.
I think some concessions for the tea plantations should be given by govt, but don't know if they will receive any.

It is up to the people who invest in plantations to see which companies hold what type of sectors (eg.Tea,Rubber,)
and decide if to buy.

Personally I expect it to be profitable, but nothing is certain in CSE-Sri Lanka Smile

Chinwi · 3 Re: Rubber price!! Mon Jun 13, 2011 10:04 am

Chinwi

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Max wrote:

It is up to the people who invest in plantations to see which companies hold what type of sectors (eg.Tea,Rubber,)
and decide if to buy.

I prefer Rubber + palm

aladdin · 4 Re: Rubber price!! Mon Jun 13, 2011 3:33 pm

aladdin

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rubber shares might be the future

smallville · 5 Re: Rubber price!! Wed Jun 15, 2011 9:45 pm

smallville

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Chinwi wrote:

Max wrote:

It is up to the people who invest in plantations to see which companies hold what type of sectors (eg.Tea,Rubber,)
and decide if to buy.

I prefer Rubber + palm

Chinwi, I read an article abt a month back on Palm oil.. It was written by a famous person actually the ex- head (retd) of research of this rubber research team in SL, a govt project. In that he was explaining the oil plam was getting rejected by most countries now adays and how he involved in safeguardig rubber growing lands without converting those to oil palm..

As he clearly shows with facts and figures I tend to think there could be a problem in oil plam demand.

widanage · 6 Re: Rubber price!! Wed Jun 15, 2011 10:19 pm

widanage

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At present trends if rubber touch 800LKR level in next couple of weeks come I would not be surprised.
1. Main reasons for price increase is the lower crop which eventually leads to the lower supply. RPC's are experiencing a overall decline in the crop apart from the persistent rain which hinders tapping even most of them have mitigatory measures.
2. Most of the estates for RPCs are behind the budgeted quantities for the year 2011. In contrast last year they have exceeded the budget.
3. Some of the plantation companies, who have forward contracts, just shipped the April contracts in last week.
4. Company's who have forward contracts earn around 80-90 US cents more than the normal auction prices, even at present levels.

factFINDER · 7 Re: Rubber price!! Wed Jun 15, 2011 10:34 pm

factFINDER

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Max wrote:

It is up to the people who invest in plantations to see which companies hold what type of sectors (eg.Tea,Rubber,)
and decide if to buy.

Personally I expect it to be profitable, but nothing is certain in CSE-Sri Lanka

I still like planataion stocks and my preference is basically on valuation of each stock. I'm holding a few plantation counters and plantation holding companies in my portfolio .... According to my openion stock perices are already OVER ADJUSTD for wage hike and risk of corp price fluctuations ... !! ... that is why they traded PER 4-6 levels.

my favorits are;
KGAL - more Rubber exposure (relatively low PER)
MAL - more Tea exposure (lowest PER in the sector)
NAMU - a mix of Oil palm, Rubber and Tea (moderate PER)

and
RICH
FLCH
BRWN

for a comparison on plantation stocks http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t4360-a-quick-comparison-of-plantation-stocks-valuation-guide (update current prices)