BFL & poultry Stock

Deen79 · 1 BFL & poultry Stock Thu Oct 04, 2018 2:47 pm

Deen79

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I noticed BFL Chairman is buying up stock at current levels. Anyone else think Poultry will pick up soon? I hold Gran and BFL and BPPL. Lost almost 2M LKR on LLUB and Parq and TJL. Determined to hold onto these and not lose more or sell at a loss.

janith123 · 2 Re: BFL & poultry Stock Thu Oct 04, 2018 9:01 pm

janith123

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With the dawn of tourist season and festivals .this sector can be good .but still highly riskier area with media report and health problem s with chicken.

DS Wijesinghe · 3 Re: BFL & poultry Stock Fri Oct 05, 2018 10:49 pm

DS Wijesinghe

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Dear Deen
Both GRAN & BFL stocks are trading around 58% and 52% of their Net Assets Values (NAVPS) respectively. Any investor who buy these stocks at current levels enjoy a huge Margin of Safety on their investment against any possible price declines in future

In addition GRAN is one of the most undervalued stocks in the CSE currently as it is trading even below the Net Current Asset(net working capital) Value per share. So in current market, investors will not have to pay for GRAN's fixed assets and it is very uncommon to find hugely undervalued stocks of this nature in a stock market

Net Current Asset (Working Capital )value per share = Total CURRENT ASSETS - TOTAL LIABILITIES(including Long Term Liabilities)/ No. of Shares

	GRAN	BFL
Last traded price	Rs. 58.10	Rs.120
NAVPS-2Q 2018	100.15	230.38
Stock price as % of NAVPS	58%	52%
Net current asset value per share	Rs. 68.30	Rs. 30.48
Stock price as % of NCAVPS	85%	394%
Price difference of Stock price & NCAVPS	(Rs. 10)	+Rs.90

CAGR = Compounded Annual Growth Rate

	GRAN 6 year CAGR	BFL 8 year CAGR
Turnover	6%	9%
Net Profit after tax	17%	15%
Earnings per share	15%	15%
Net asset value per share	12%	21%
Dividend per share	Not consistent	9.8%

Please note that Net Profits and EPS of both companies are doubling roughly around every 5 years

Though past performances are no guarantee of future they give glimpses of the future ahead. The annual Chicken meat consumption per person has grown to 7.5 Kg from 5.7 Kg in 2011 at a CAGR of 5%. Also during the last 3 years the Return on Equity (ROE) have been in double digits for both GRAN & BFL

The downside are LKR depreciation, price and quality of maize upon which their results depend

I do not hold any BFL but have bought GRAN @ 82/- @ mid 74/- and @ 62/- and looking to hold for a minimum of another 5 years. Will probably buy a further quantity if the price drops to 50.

Deen79 · 4 BFL & poultry Stock Mon Oct 08, 2018 1:23 pm

Deen79

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Hello DS Wijesignghe,

Thank you very much for your analysis and views. I agree with you too and i am holding. I really do appreciate your in depth analysis. Thanks a lot!

Deen