Sri Lanka’s Commercial Bank rejects rating revision by Fitch

http://www.colombopage.com/archive_20A/Jan24_1579837834CH.php

Hi Kavindu. Sorry to bother you. I am seeing many comments on the forum stating that CSE will not boom after GE given certain economic issues. GR & Team are doing so much (& much more will happen post GE) to put economy to high growth path. Under UNP we would have gone on a journey to the bottom. Do you see this as a issue that will impact your 90% Probability call on a huge bull. Await your response.Thanks.

Kavindu a reply please.

Kipling wrote:Hi Kavindu. Sorry to bother you. I am seeing many comments on the forum stating that CSE will not boom after GE given certain economic issues. GR & Team are doing so much (& much more will happen post GE) to put economy to high growth path. Under UNP we would have gone on a journey to the bottom. Do you see this as a issue that will impact your 90% Probability call on a huge bull. Await your response.Thanks.

Hi mate.

No bothering xD it's okay haha.
Actually some group wants a bear market. idk why. whether we want or not market will run with the government decisions for sure.

Yeah UNP retards killed the economy. Yeah tax cuts are essential for a economic growth (Specially which was downgraded to the bottom) and its done.

There are much more incoming. Yeah much more post GE. and it will be okay about 2/3 power in parliament. whether GR gets it or not (actually its better without 2/3) it won't matter. Now people are changed. Now they think before voting and floating votes are increased and traditional voting system for the color don't exist now. Majority of the parliament will help for good decisions for the country. 

Nah. It's still same. CSE Golden age is not much far away.

You know my stand is similar to your position. Problem is I sometimes start doubting that things will be good. Maybe my life experience. Once I read your comments my doubts vanish. Thanks so so much. Sincere appreciation.

Kipling wrote:You know my stand is similar to your position. Problem is I sometimes start doubting that things will be good. Maybe my life experience. Once I read your comments my doubts vanish. Thanks so so much. Sincere appreciation.

Haha Welcome. Maybe ASI won't able to pass the All time high in 2020 , but the journey will start for sure.

And the downtrend since new year is no more. Uptrend started. If it pass 6150 level this time, we can expect something big 

Currently trailing PE10 which will easily drop to 7-8 on a forward basis gives tax cuts, rate reductions (WD Laxman gave hint) & better TO &margins. Then even if it moves to 14 our market PE nowhere near 2011 29pe. So scope for rapid run up high. Is my reasoning correct?

Kavindu a reply please.

Kipling wrote:Currently trailing PE10 which will easily drop to 7-8 on a forward basis gives tax cuts, rate reductions (WD Laxman gave hint) & better TO &margins. Then even if it moves to 14 our market PE nowhere near 2011 29pe. So scope for rapid run up high. Is my reasoning correct?

Yeah i agree 

Kipling wrote:Kavindu a reply please.

Sorry i was afk.

99% chance for economical reversal in 2020. So ASI will follow.

Market is very much under valued. There is no argument on that. PE10+ means very cheap. But some basics remain wrong. Fear of Dollar depreciation, Inflation, Interest rate, High debt payments all due to high Govt spending for unproductive areas remain and due to that Foreigners keep waiting..There are other good markets for them to invest like Bangladesh, Maynmar, Vietnam etc.. Without Foreign Funds usually market is not able to run at its full potential. Pump and Dump cant attract good long term investors !!! I know so many investors wanted to come to Sri Lanka, have now looked elsewhere.. Share market is a easy way to attract Dollars to the country and its almost same as getting FDI. But Basics are paramount... Its proven that No economy will sustain when basics are wrong.. So are we trying to re-invent the wheel ? I difinitely agree GOTA and MR both capable, but there something wrong with their thinking or advisors...

Think about the cash flow for a share. Based on below 90% companies to be ignored. Not only that, there are 40+critical ratios proves CSE is over valued.

CFROI = Gocf / capital employed
Its upto you to buy,hold, or sell.

NANDANA2012 wrote:Market is very much under valued. There is no argument on that. PE10+ means very cheap. But some basics remain wrong. Fear of Dollar depreciation, Inflation, Interest rate, High debt payments all due to high Govt spending for unproductive areas remain and due to that Foreigners keep waiting..There are other good markets for them to invest like Bangladesh, Maynmar, Vietnam etc.. Without Foreign Funds usually market is not able to run at its full potential. Pump and Dump cant attract good long term investors !!! I know so many investors wanted to come to Sri Lanka, have now looked elsewhere.. Share market is a easy way to attract Dollars to the country and its almost same as getting FDI. But Basics are paramount... Its proven that No economy will sustain when basics are wrong.. So are we trying to re-invent the wheel ? I difinitely agree GOTA and MR both capable, but there something wrong with their thinking or advisors...

Yeah i m also agree with your logic of basics. And i m telling they will get correct.
Rupee appreciation and inflation rate will be corrected but it needs time and some bold decisions u know right. Yeah my opinion is they will bring our motherland to correct place and this time it will be better. Maybe it's about us. the way we think. Who knows their plans? maybe we are seeing some short term losses but if we investigate correctly we will find out. And no doubt they have good plans. And it's not that easy as we talking. last gov
destroyed our country. even it will affect the new gov for a considerable time. And we can see lot of groups are interested in CSE now compared to last 5 years. Highways , ports , road plans and bridges plans are started again (which was stopped by the last gov). We can expect more after GE.

Teller wrote:Think about  the cash flow for a share.  Based on below 90% companies to be ignored. Not only that, there are 40+critical ratios proves CSE is over valued.

CFROI = Gocf / capital employed
Its upto you to buy,hold, or sell.

But governments changed. We could exit CSE telling there's no future here if UNP won again as economic will keep the downtrend till death. but actually there's a future as GR won.

rupee appreciation will start sooner but recovering a economy of a country isn't easy as destroying. And i see this government effort to make the economy good. Tax cuts are 1 of them. Most of people seeing it as a (-) point for treasury but not me. Tax reliefs are essential for a economic growth of a country. Even when we had too much tax rates. Don't compare our country tax rates with the tax rates of developed countries.

My opinion :- This is a reversal point of our economy.

Comments from Ms.Page from FT.
To my simple mind this shows there is a considerable foreign interest.
Post GE, GR bold policies will be launched. All of us will be surprised. Recall the following 2 statements.
When MR said in 2005 that he will sweep out terroism many asked the brand of the broom.
When he said I will rebuild economy many asked whether he had Aladdin Magic lamp.
I have faith in GR. May SL race to prosperity.

We didn’t do a global roadshow on JKH stake but the market got wind of it and there were several inquiries. Locally too there was interest. All those for were smaller parcels instead of the entirety,” said the Singapore-based Page though declining to be specific. 


The fact that Citig-roup Global Markets Ltd., Agency Trading Prop Securities A/C picked up the big block in full reflects the confidence on JKH and in Sri Lanka. In that context the transaction is a big boost,” said Page who has been promoting equity investments into Sri Lanka for several decades. 

She opined that the Colombo stock market had been oversold and valuations are attractive going forward. 
“I believe foreign investor interest will gather momentum post General Elections. Post Presidential Poll, signs have been encouraging,” Page added.

As rupee has been predicted to touch 195.50 against USD, foreign interest to CSE is critical .

Kipling wrote:Comments from Ms.Page from FT.
To my simple mind this shows there is a considerable foreign interest.
Post GE, GR bold policies will be launched. All of us will be surprised. Recall the following 2 statements.
When MR said in 2005 that he will sweep out terroism many asked the brand of the broom.
When he said I will rebuild economy many asked whether he had Aladdin Magic lamp.
I have faith in GR. May SL race to prosperity.

We didn’t do a global roadshow on JKH stake but the market got wind of it and there were several inquiries. Locally too there was interest. All those for were smaller parcels instead of the entirety,” said the Singapore-based Page though declining to be specific. 


The fact that Citig-roup Global Markets Ltd., Agency Trading Prop Securities A/C picked up the big block in full reflects the confidence on JKH and in Sri Lanka. In that context the transaction is a big boost,” said Page who has been promoting equity investments into Sri Lanka for several decades. 

She opined that the Colombo stock market had been oversold and valuations are attractive going forward. 
“I believe foreign investor interest will gather momentum post General Elections. Post Presidential Poll, signs have been encouraging,” Page added.

Yeah i agree. Haters will hate till the job done and later they will say "We knew that"
Ye i also believe in them.
Hail to our pearl of the Indian ocean!

Sri lanka rupee prediction to 195+ with in a year
https://walletinvestor.com/forex-forecast/usd-lkr-prediction

Imagine how foreigners will loose

At Walletinvestor.com we predict future values with technical analysis for wide selection of Forex currency pairs like USD/LKR. If you are looking for Forex pairs with good return, USDLKR can be a profitable investment option. USD/LKR rate equal to 181.611 at 2020-01-25 (today's range: 181.611000 - 181.611000). Based on our forecasts, a long-term increase is expected, the Forex rate prognosis for 2025-01-17 is 251.261. With a 5-year investment, the revenue is expected to be around +38.35%. Your current $100 investment may be up to $138.35 in 2025.

Teller is not known. Page is with a proven track record. Better to trust her view on foreign interest than those with dubious & anti SL motivation.

Teller wrote:At Walletinvestor.com we predict future values with technical analysis for wide selection of Forex currency pairs like USD/LKR. If you are looking for Forex pairs with good return, USDLKR can be a profitable investment option. USD/LKR rate equal to 181.611 at 2020-01-25 (today's range: 181.611000 - 181.611000). Based on our forecasts, a long-term increase is expected, the Forex rate prognosis for 2025-01-17 is 251.261. With a 5-year investment, the revenue is expected to be around +38.35%. Your current $100 investment may be up to $138.35 in 2025.

Wth 250 is impossible. Their predictions are not wrong at all with the last 5 years acceleration. But governments changed. We can't expect such a bad economy from GR gov.Same happened in last 5 years (more than 30% gain if someone invested in dollars) . But UNP is no more. People may keep that on mind.

Teller wrote:At Walletinvestor.com we predict future values with technical analysis for wide selection of Forex currency pairs like USD/LKR. If you are looking for Forex pairs with good return, USDLKR can be a profitable investment option. USD/LKR rate equal to 181.611 at 2020-01-25 (today's range: 181.611000 - 181.611000). Based on our forecasts, a long-term increase is expected, the Forex rate prognosis for 2025-01-17 is 251.261. With a 5-year investment, the revenue is expected to be around +38.35%. Your current $100 investment may be up to $138.35 in 2025.

 
However those technical bots doesn't give a damn about rupee depreciation. They are just using charts. According to last 5 years , their predictions are not wrong. But now it will be totally different. People will lose who is investing in USD/LKR

No, kavindu , their predictions are correct . Mostly 90%

Teller wrote:
No, kavindu , their predictions are correct . Mostly 90%

 Ah is it? , Fine then this time it is one of that 10%