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HNB N and X: Trading Below Rights Issue Price: For better or for worse?

4 posters

Go down  Message [Page 1 of 1]

DK


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

We have another unique situation (and wonder if someone somewhere would be doing a thesis on market sentiment in CSE, we seem to get a lot of case studies) with regards to HNB.N and HNB.X

HNB.N:
Currently trading at: 209.90 (current spread is 200.40 - 208.90)
Rights issue: 1 for 10 at 219.50
XR: 4th July 2011 (two more days till cum-rights)

HNB.X:
Currently trading at: 116.50 (current spread is 116.50 - 117)
Rights issue: 1 for 10 at 119.50
XR: 4th July 2011 (two more days till cum-rights)

If everything to go sane, then the share prices have to reach at least 219.50 and 119.50 (it's slightly higher than that, but when you round to two decimals, it rounds to this. The effect of dilution is low). If so, HNB.N will rise by 4.77% and HNB.X will rise by 2.57% within two days. Granted not a big amount (i.e. not a 20-30% move), but it's good enough.

OR would this be worse than LDEV?

Note: This is not a buy/sell/hold suggestion at all. Do your own research.

DK


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

Also note that I have not included transaction costs in the above

CSE Today

CSE Today
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

DK wrote:We have another unique situation (and wonder if someone somewhere would be doing a thesis on market sentiment in CSE, we seem to get a lot of case studies) with regards to HNB.N and HNB.X

HNB.N:
Currently trading at: 209.90 (current spread is 200.40 - 208.90)
Rights issue: 1 for 10 at 219.50
XR: 4th July 2011 (two more days till cum-rights)

HNB.X:
Currently trading at: 116.50 (current spread is 116.50 - 117)
Rights issue: 1 for 10 at 119.50
XR: 4th July 2011 (two more days till cum-rights)

If everything to go sane, then the share prices have to reach at least 219.50 and 119.50 (it's slightly higher than that, but when you round to two decimals, it rounds to this. The effect of dilution is low). If so, HNB.N will rise by 4.77% and HNB.X will rise by 2.57% within two days. Granted not a big amount (i.e. not a 20-30% move), but it's

Take the SEYB as an example buddy...! same pattern...on both N & X...then finally after the Rights issue both are now trading much below the Rights price of 75 & 35...!
(SEYB N now 65 & X 34) scratch

kam2011


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

This is a similar experiance as in the case of Seylan Bank. Isn't it? This is not a good time for companies to go for Right issues. Because investors little reluctant to invest more money in Rights in a bearish market. . Another reason may be investors intend to go for new IPOs to divesify their PF and therefore they have little interest on rights.

limestone

limestone
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

SEYB syndrome ?

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