Panasian Power PLC (PAP)

Will PAP reach 10 very soon ? I think it should, it should because its the only power company trading very low. More over emage wise purchase is at average of 5.50 to 6 range. This is not a recommendation.

I do not think so.
According my knowledge ur reason is not valid.
Hope experts will comment.

At current price this share is very attractive. I calculated the PE assuming Share price is 5.00 then PE comes to 15 , The best among hydro power. But still Hemas power (wkich is a mix Hydro+Thermal) PE is below 10. Only thing is they are heavily depend on thermal and future selling risk is a problem.

If we think logically, why would emage wise purchase at premium. As far as i know its a strategic investment and quickly growing with increasing profits. Further if u see its has been heavily traded at the range of 4.80 to 6. The moment market starts moving up it can flourish. Its a strategic investment by dilith. Therefore its has to move once the credits are cleared.

Further the upward threshhold is 6 which is not too far away

Agree with marketinvest. People even in countries like us now understand the problem of envioronment pollution and its impact on their health. Therefore with the increasing public presure high poluting thermal power genarating systems will be disappered in the future. That is why investors are now looking for reneable energy projects for their investment. Dr. S too buying still VLL shares and now he is the major shareholder of VLL. This indicates us something about PAP.

Rajaraam wrote:At current price this share is very attractive. I calculated the PE assuming Share price is 5.00 then PE comes to 15 , The best among hydro power. But still Hemas power (wkich is a mix Hydro+Thermal) PE is below 10. Only thing is they are heavily depend on thermal and future selling risk is a problem.

Well, it looks like you haven't got it all correct. First, I'd like to point out that HPWR has a PER of 9.6 when priced at 32.00 . It "was" heavily dependent on fuel, but they have increased their hydro power capacity in the past years. If you look at their annual report ( http://www.cse.lk/cmt/upload_report_file/881_1308221591635.pdf ) you will see. I'm not promoting Hemas Power but just correcting what you said.

Then, the matter of PAP reaching 10. It looks unlikely that it would anytime soon based on their financials and the market situation.There have been many discussions about it and you may find them by searching.

To me, it looks like you and MarketInvest both bought PAP at high prices. If that is the case then (you'd probably give me negative rep for this but) i suggest that you both hold it as a long term investment and try not to promote shares in this forum.

rijayasooriya wrote:I do not think so.
According my knowledge ur reason is not valid.
Hope experts will comment.

According to the your knowledge why you are telling so?

Marketinvest wrote:Will PAP reach 10 very soon ? I think it should, it should because its the only power company trading very low. More over emage wise purchase is at average of 5.50 to 6 range. This is not a recommendation.

There may be lots of people who bought PAP around Rs. 7-8 during the recent rally and holding with massive unrealized losses. I am sure they will love to hear this.

But the point is it was not so long ago that PAP was trading around Rs. 3.90-4.00. PAP is already up by 25% at Rs. 5.00 when you compare with this price. Has the earnings increased by the same margin during the period? I doubt, correct me if I am wrong.

Anticipating the price to increase further is clearly beyond the fundamentals of this counter but not an impossibility if you take speculation into accout which plays a significant role in regular price fluctuations of these manipulated shares.

This is what some broker firms say. Asia Capital in their conclusion advice investors to curb their pursuit on low and mid cap speculative counters as the risks and adversities are high.



“Beware” of Speculative Counters and “Hold” Fundamentally Robust
Stocks The ASI was down 47.85 points (WoW) and the MPI was down 94.90
points (WoW) during the week ended 01.07.2011. The Colombo bourse
continued its downward momentum despite higher turnover contributions
by high cap counters. Big block crossings were seen on few large caps
such as Aitken Spence & Co. and Aitken Spence Hotel Holdings with
Distilleries Company of Sri Lanka which had crossings throughout the
trading week mainly due foreign interest. We advice investors to curb
their pursuit on low and mid cap speculative counters as the risk
adversities are high. This may create a negative sentiment on the
potential and incumbent investors about the bourse. We anticipate the
market to prolong with negative momentum, nonetheless, we advice our
investors to accumulate fundamentally robust counters at these
attractive prices to gain on the subsequent bull run.


They seem to except a subsequent bull run. That is what they say..

Asiri_I wrote:

rijayasooriya wrote:I do not think so.
According my knowledge ur reason is not valid.
Hope experts will comment.

According to the your knowledge why you are telling so?

Comparing of share prices in different companies even in the same sector is misleading.
Just look at the share prices of banks.
Above explanation is according to my knowledge.
If it does not suit with ur knowledge U are free to express that

traderJack wrote:

Rajaraam wrote:At current price this share is very attractive. I calculated the PE assuming Share price is 5.00 then PE comes to 15 , The best among hydro power. But still Hemas power (wkich is a mix Hydro+Thermal) PE is below 10. Only thing is they are heavily depend on thermal and future selling risk is a problem.

Well, it looks like you haven't got it all correct. First, I'd like to point out that HPWR has a PER of 9.6 when priced at 32.00 . It "was" heavily dependent on fuel, but they have increased their hydro power capacity in the past years. If you look at their annual report ( http://www.cse.lk/cmt/upload_report_file/881_1308221591635.pdf ) you will see. I'm not promoting Hemas Power but just correcting what you said.

Then, the matter of PAP reaching 10. It looks unlikely that it would anytime soon based on their financials and the market situation.There have been many discussions about it and you may find them by searching.

To me, it looks like you and MarketInvest both bought PAP at high prices. If that is the case then (you'd probably give me negative rep for this but) i suggest that you both hold it as a long term investment and try not to promote shares in this forum.

I just expressed my view only. I have some quantity of PAP shares in my PF. But at a cost of below 5.03 which I bought recently since I thought even to hold that is a good price for me.(o.25 dividend yield also attractive compared to many low price counters.( Eg; RICH 0.10,GLASS 0.30 NHL 0.05)

traderJack wrote:

Rajaraam wrote:At current price this share is very attractive. I calculated the PE assuming Share price is 5.00 then PE comes to 15 , The best among hydro power. But still Hemas power (wkich is a mix Hydro+Thermal) PE is below 10. Only thing is they are heavily depend on thermal and future selling risk is a problem.

Well, it looks like you haven't got it all correct. First, I'd like to point out that HPWR has a PER of 9.6 when priced at 32.00 . It "was" heavily dependent on fuel, but they have increased their hydro power capacity in the past years. If you look at their annual report ( http://www.cse.lk/cmt/upload_report_file/881_1308221591635.pdf ) you will see. I'm not promoting Hemas Power but just correcting what you said.

Then, the matter of PAP reaching 10. It looks unlikely that it would anytime soon based on their financials and the market situation.There have been many discussions about it and you may find them by searching.

To me, it looks like you and MarketInvest both bought PAP at high prices. If that is the case then (you'd probably give me negative rep for this but) i suggest that you both hold it as a long term investment and try not to promote shares in this forum.

I don't know whether they promote or not. But reaching 10 looks impossible. It should touch atlest 6 which can yield at-least 25% return. One rally during upmarket can turn-around. Yes it is lower PE with higher growth( ref last qtr report). March qtr is the worst qtr for hydro power but PAP out-performed. More than 2 times of issued qty had been traded price above 5.5. Wait and see.... Hemas power looks lower PE but they have 100MW of thermal power. According Govt sources they want to reduce thermal power that is not sustainable.

Rajaraam wrote:At current price this share is very attractive. I calculated the PE assuming Share price is 5.00 then PE comes to 15 , The best among hydro power. But still Hemas power (wkich is a mix Hydro+Thermal) PE is below 10. Only thing is they are heavily depend on thermal and future selling risk is a problem.

@Rajaraam : I think it will be great if you can share your calculations.

Experts what is the actual EPS of PAP?
according to the interim financial statement EPS for 1st quarter is 0.018. so EPS 0.018*4 = 0.072. Hence P/E would be 5 / 0.072 = 69

Am i correct?? (i think i may be making a mistake, please correct me)

How come this be attractive?
(i have considered PAP as a company not as a group)
Link for PAP Interim financial statement

You need to consider Group EPS not company. However due to the IPO the calculation are done on weighted verage.


Just consider the number of share to be 500,000,000 for calculations to get a better picture

slstock wrote:You need to consider Group EPS not company. However due to the IPO the calculation are done on weighted verage.


Just consider the number of share to be 500,000,000 for calculations to get a better picture

Could you please explain me when i should consider "company" and when i shld consider "group"?
or is that i shld always consider gropup financials?

Anyway PAP is really attractive at current price levels and even the parcels sizes its traded

Marketinvest wrote:Anyway PAP is really attractive at current price levels and even the parcels sizes its traded

Could u please tell me why its attractive??

thanks.

Thanks "slstock"

Sl stock , if u see the 177 mn shares by D is around the average of 5.2 to 6. He has paid a premium. This is clearly a strategic investment by him. Therefore its e good time to collect now.

Marketinvest wrote:Sl stock , if u see the 177 mn shares by D is around the average of 5.2 to 6. He has paid a premium. This is clearly a strategic investment by him. Therefore its e good time to collect now.

If DJ has purchased 177 million shares, it's 1/3 of the total shares. Then he should disclosure it to CSE as an announcement in two working days. But as my understanding, there was no such announcement. My doubt, is he still holding the shares he bought it at premium price? My doubt will be clear, once they release the quarter report.

ccsentha wrote:

slstock wrote:You need to consider Group EPS not company. However due to the IPO the calculation are done on weighted verage.


Just consider the number of share to be 500,000,000 for calculations to get a better picture

Could you please explain me when i should consider "company" and when i shld consider "group"?
or is that i shld always consider gropup financials?

Just to simplfy if you see "Group" and Consolidated" use those figure instead of Company.

When entity owns or have subsidiaries it can be a Group.

Calculqtion of PE (PAP) =

EPS(Earning Per Share) As per last financial year Accounts =0.33
Market Price =Rs. 5.00
PE calculation = 5.00/0.33= 15.15

ccsentha wrote:Experts what is the actual EPS of PAP?
according to the interim financial statement EPS for 1st quarter is 0.018. so EPS 0.018*4 = 0.072. Hence P/E would be 5 / 0.072 = 69

Am i correct?? (i think i may be making a mistake, please correct me)

How come this be attractive?
(i have considered PAP as a company not as a group)
Link for PAP Interim financial statement

You have taken Cmpany figure and that is also 2010 March Q figure. We have to take annual Group figure to work out the ratios. Accordingly EPS of PAP could be calculated as given below;

EPS for Last financial year ending 31.03.2011 = 0.33
Closing market price (Friday) = 4.90.
Then the PE =4.90/0.33= 14.84