Few fundamental stocks for short term gains

I have suggested below a list of undervalued shares which might give some short term gains.

Mkt Price: Yesterday's close price
Fair value: Valuation based on NAV and expected future earnings
exp. Gain: Expected short term* appreciation of market price based on current price momentum ( If the overall market become bullish this could be higher and other way round)
* short term means couple of weeks if not days.

Share |Mkt Price| Fair value| exp. Gain

FLCH.N 4.40 7.01 14%
JINS.N 16.30 23.44 13%
CSEC.N 20.20 21.13 19%
TWOD.N 27.20 65.90 10%
CTLD.N 28.80 57.35 15%
TPL.N 36.40 71.80 15%
BALA.N 48.10 93.75 16%
HOPL.N 66.00 82.29 12%
TAFL.N 101.00 79.43 19%

Sorry about the poor look of the table (pls someone tell me how to make it look better next time)
Kindly make our own judgement when buying or selling (No one is correct 100%).

TAFL market price is 101, while fair value is 79.43, then how come this would yield a 19% gain.

Please explain us the calculations

thanks

hunter wrote:I have suggested below a list of undervalued shares which might give some short term gains.

Mkt Price: Yesterday's close price
Fair value: Valuation based on NAV and expected future earnings
exp. Gain: Expected short term* appreciation of market price based on current price momentum ( If the overall market become bullish this could be higher and other way round)
* short term means couple of weeks if not days.

Share |Mkt Price| Fair value| exp. Gain

FLCH.N 4.40 7.01 14%
JINS.N 16.30 23.44 13%
CSEC.N 20.20 21.13 19%
TWOD.N 27.20 65.90 10%
CTLD.N 28.80 57.35 15%
TPL.N 36.40 71.80 15%
BALA.N 48.10 93.75 16%
HOPL.N 66.00 82.29 12%
TAFL.N 101.00 79.43 19%

Sorry about the poor look of the table (pls someone tell me how to make it look better next time)
Kindly make our own judgement when buying or selling (No one is correct 100%).

Expected gain: is this a result of any calculation or merely your expectation?

My replies are not getting posted: this is a test.

Re-typing:

tinyman,
Good observation.

Fair value is based on the present NAV and the expected minimum income in next five years. (This is what I use, others may use different ways of arriving at 'fair value'). TAFL looks to have a great future earning potential but the present NAV is low. Therefore, the fair value I have arrived is lower than the market price. (Yes, in my view, this is a little speculative)

Please note the expected gain I have mentioned is not based on the 'fair value' but based on the current price momentum (Short term).

'Fair value' and the 'short term gain's I have suggesed are not directly linked to each other

Hunter,
Calrification on TAFL

You expect TAFL price to drop further to 79?


TAFL.N 101.00 79.43 19%

slstock wrote:Hunter,
Calrification on TAFL

You expect TAFL price to drop further to 79?


TAFL.N 101.00 79.43 19%

(Sorry to say) I wanted TAFL to drop to 85 to collect some but the market pattern suggest a reversal around 95~100.

( I hope I have clarified my calculations in my previous reply)

Is LGL fundamentally sound?

Hiru,

The mentioned 'expected gain' is the result of some calculations based on price range (swing) and MACD. However, this is more subjective than mechanical.

Soundchips wrote:Is LGL fundamentally sound?

My present valuation of LGL.N is Rs 30~35. (it does not mean the price will come down)

Kudos for you for the brilliant gem hunt based on fundamentals as well as technicals hunter.

For me FLCH, CSEC, CTLD are clear cut undervalues and possibly have good returns when the market gains the momentum back. They are in to wonderful businesses.

However TWOD might be highly dependent on the case outcome on 18th July and it has some possibility of getting postponed too. But I'm longing a range bound in TWOD in the near future and see its already in the up trend. If the case outcome is favorable it can possibly have a leap.

BALA, TPL, HOPL are some other good businesses which are undervalued. Hike in cost of production in tea and the drop in tea prices might have negative impacts on tea margins in the quarterly reports but the impact could be mitigated with higher margins for rubber in case of HOPL and BPL and TPL's Hydor arm will also contribute to the margins.


I have doubts on TAFL and my valuation is way below even to the current market price and you must have predicted solely based on the technos.

Can someone kindly send me JINS last quarterly reports cause it's not uploaded in cse.lk

All in all great to see a spot on analysis based on both funda and techno.

Keep up the good work hunter.

Thanks for your great feedback RichDad.

Regarding JINS.. I guess they publish reports every 6 months (Not quarterly). I am also waiting for their June reports.

hunter wrote:I have suggested below a list of undervalued shares which might give some short term gains.

Mkt Price: Yesterday's close price
Fair value: Valuation based on NAV and expected future earnings
exp. Gain: Expected short term* appreciation of market price based on current price momentum ( If the overall market become bullish this could be higher and other way round)
* short term means couple of weeks if not days.

Share |Mkt Price| Fair value| exp. Gain

FLCH.N 4.40 7.01 14%
JINS.N 16.30 23.44 13%
CSEC.N 20.20 21.13 19%
TWOD.N 27.20 65.90 10%
CTLD.N 28.80 57.35 15%
TPL.N 36.40 71.80 15%
BALA.N 48.10 93.75 16%
HOPL.N 66.00 82.29 12%
TAFL.N 101.00 79.43 19%

Sorry about the poor look of the table (pls someone tell me how to make it look better next time)
Kindly make our own judgement when buying or selling (No one is correct 100%).

What do you think of following stocks. Couldn't we include these to your list?. Please be kind enough give your opinion if not.

LGL.X, BRWN, LCEY,

I think nothing goes with fundamental stocks now. With the current market conditions everything is going with mere speculation.

nkalansu wrote:

hunter wrote:I have suggested below a list of undervalued shares which might give some short term gains.

Mkt Price: Yesterday's close price
Fair value: Valuation based on NAV and expected future earnings
exp. Gain: Expected short term* appreciation of market price based on current price momentum ( If the overall market become bullish this could be higher and other way round)
* short term means couple of weeks if not days.

Share |Mkt Price| Fair value| exp. Gain

FLCH.N 4.40 7.01 14%
JINS.N 16.30 23.44 13%
CSEC.N 20.20 21.13 19%
TWOD.N 27.20 65.90 10%
CTLD.N 28.80 57.35 15%
TPL.N 36.40 71.80 15%
BALA.N 48.10 93.75 16%
HOPL.N 66.00 82.29 12%
TAFL.N 101.00 79.43 19%

Sorry about the poor look of the table (pls someone tell me how to make it look better next time)
Kindly make our own judgement when buying or selling (No one is correct 100%).

What do you think of following stocks. Couldn't we include these to your list?. Please be kind enough give your opinion if not.

LGL.X, BRWN, LCEY,

nowadays,…. RICH ,BRWN, Blue chips , Banks MPI etc. ..cannot be ignored,….. ultimately market drives on corporate earnings.... institutional buying, foreign funds, listing on London stock exchange, EPF funds and many other large scale actual investments without dependent on credit comes to well slashed large scale conglomerates with a proven history and track record…… new CSE regulations make it more and more difficult for the market to grow on credit……