HDFC - Interim report released

Monster · 1 HDFC - Interim report released Fri Feb 18, 2011 6:59 pm

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http://www.cse.lk/cmt/upload_report_file/376_1298007462.pdf

Quarter EPS - 0.00
Annualised EPS - 38/-
NVPS - 278.70
Current Market Price - 889/-

Looks it's overvalued. Why it has appreciated heavily recently?

tubal · 2 Re: HDFC - Interim report released Fri Feb 18, 2011 7:10 pm

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That's the usual pattern at the CSE isn't it? Share price appreciates 50% earnings grow 10% Sometimes earnings decline like we have seen here and with CARS, BUKI, etc

Monster · 3 Re: HDFC - Interim report released Fri Feb 18, 2011 7:18 pm

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tubal wrote:That's the usual pattern at the CSE isn't it? Share price appreciates 50% earnings grow 10% Sometimes earnings decline like we have seen here and with CARS, BUKI, etc

Agreed. There are few shares, which has produced extra ordinary profit in 3Q and has future growth as well but those are still stagnated. I can't really undestand this pattern.

champion · 4 Re: HDFC - Interim report released Fri Feb 18, 2011 8:58 pm

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Some how it will go to 1500 very soon, most probably it will come out with a split......

smallville · 5 Re: HDFC - Interim report released Fri Feb 18, 2011 9:29 pm

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HDFC is a good bank to my knowledge but the current price is not sustainable.. not the best time to get into..

chabu · 6 Re: HDFC - Interim report released Fri Feb 18, 2011 10:32 pm

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Operating Profit for the Period
10,588 --------680 -------1456%
Basic earning per ordinary share - ( Rs.)
1.64----------- 0.11----- 1456%

What do u think about as BANk?

champion · 7 HDFC - Interim report released Fri Feb 18, 2011 11:06 pm

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I agree with smallville. this is not a good time to come in.

ShareShares · 8 Re: HDFC - Interim report released Fri Feb 18, 2011 11:18 pm

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smallville wrote:HDFC is a good bank to my knowledge but the current price is not sustainable.. not the best time to get into..

Agree.

I also have few HDFC shares. I never recommend putting all eggs in one basket. See, what has happened in ASHO. I stick to several good quality shares, some of them take months and years to appreciate.

tubal · 9 Re: HDFC - Interim report released Fri Feb 18, 2011 11:19 pm

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chabu wrote:Operating Profit for the Period
10,588 --------680 -------1456%
Basic earning per ordinary share - ( Rs.)
1.64----------- 0.11----- 1456%

What do u think about as BANk?

Chabu, what you have to look at is the group figure which is 0.00 EPS. The 1.64 figure isn't even worth the time spent reading it.

cse.alpha · 10 Re: HDFC - Interim report released Sat Feb 19, 2011 8:00 am

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HDFC business model differs from most commercial banks (it specialises in long term housing loans and has relatively high borrowing to finance assets, with lower deposits; it has modest non-interest income too, a big profit driver of other banks), with occasional write-backs against borrowers' EPF balances boosting quarterly profits at times.

Of its 2010 annual EPS of Rs38, a staggering Rs34.7 was reported in 1Q2010, where there were substantial writebacks against EPF balances. Other banks do not display such extreme volatility in earnings, and some degree of annualisation is possible – not the case with HDFC.

On trailing earnings and based on reported book value (of Rs279), considering portfolio quality (high non-performing loans) and business model etc, the share seems overvalued from a fundamental analysis at around Rs900.

This is an illiquid share though, which two groups with close connections to each other have been pushing the past few months - Perpetual Capital (connected to Free Lanka and Thurston group) and LOLC have been aggressively mopping up free float of HDFC, with PC having 14% as at 31.12.10 and LOLC 13%. Only 12,000 shares were needed to enter Top 20 shareholders as at 31.12.10. A takeover is not easy as NHDA has 49.7%, but strategic intent and possibly some degree of manipulation is visible.

Share split speculation has long existed about HDFC, in fact since the day it went public, but as we all know a share split or subdivision does not improve the fundamentals of the business - it only possibly contributes to boost sentiment and share liquidity, and it should be a very generous, unexpected split for that to happen too.

The share though already seems grossly overvalued from a fundamental viewpoint, and investors should be careful of getting caught out at the top or in a pump and dump game with an illiquid share.

chabu · 11 Re: HDFC - Interim report released Sat Feb 19, 2011 9:31 am

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Can we expect some thing (Share split) soon? i saw some of there director also bought some shares..
http://www.cse.lk/cmt/uploadAnnounceFiles/1321294917310_376.pdf

Dividend Announcement

02 February 2011

HOUSING DEVELOPMENT FINANCE CORPORATION BANK
Company ID:- HDFC
Date of Announcement:-02.Feb.2011
Rate of Dividend:- Rs.5.00 per share Final Dividend
Financial Year:- 2010
Dates to be notified

tubal · 12 Re: HDFC - Interim report released Sat Feb 19, 2011 10:43 am

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chabu wrote:Can we expect some thing (Share split) soon? i saw some of there director also bought some shares..
http://www.cse.lk/cmt/uploadAnnounceFiles/1321294917310_376.pdf

Dates to be notified

Chabu, it would save everyone's time, including yours if you could read the previous comments in a thread before adding to it. Your question has been answered above.