Is LCEY and BRWN worth at 230?

Light of Hope · 1 Is LCEY and BRWN worth at 230? Tue Dec 27, 2011 2:40 pm

Light of Hope

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Any body following these two? or done any analysis? Are these fundamentally good stocks?

Once LCEY was 570 and BRWN was 400

is it good to collect Very Happy

Hawk Eye · 2 Re: Is LCEY and BRWN worth at 230? Tue Dec 27, 2011 3:08 pm

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BRWN yes, LCEY no at the moment

Think9 · 3 Re: Is LCEY and BRWN worth at 230? Tue Dec 27, 2011 4:26 pm

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BRWN no ! LCEY yes..

aj · 4 Re: Is LCEY and BRWN worth at 230? Tue Dec 27, 2011 4:53 pm

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Both are investor unfriendly stocks unless you're a director of the companies. Good for trading.

Last edited by aj on Tue Dec 27, 2011 4:58 pm; edited 1 time in total

Kumar · 5 Re: Is LCEY and BRWN worth at 230? Tue Dec 27, 2011 4:54 pm

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Think9 wrote:BRWN no ! LCEY yes..

Agreed.

cseguide · 6 Re: Is LCEY and BRWN worth at 230? Tue Dec 27, 2011 5:50 pm

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Hawk Eye wrote:BRWN yes, LCEY no at the moment

LCEY heavily depended on their plantation income. time is not good for plantations

insidertrader · 7 Re: Is LCEY and BRWN worth at 230? Tue Dec 27, 2011 7:41 pm

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Both BRWN and LCEY made one time gain from the plantations once. That won't be repeated. Otherwise both companies performance have been nothing. One has done some accounting book magic to show profits. Both shares will look very expensive when the PER double sooner.

LCEY and family (CFLB, LDEV etc...) should be avoided by the retail investors. These companies eat their profits among themselves either through share purchases between them, rights issues etc. The owners of this family of shares take the minority investors on a ride. At the end small investors get nothing.

opfdo · 8 Re: Is LCEY and BRWN worth at 230? Tue Dec 27, 2011 10:18 pm

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Light of Hope wrote:Any body following these two? or done any analysis? Are these fundamentally good stocks?

Once LCEY was 570 and BRWN was 400

is it good to collect

Howk Eye said - BRWN yes
Think 9 & Kumar with LCEY
aj refused both

I have a question for all of you. How did you come to that answer ? did you analyze ?

LCEY EPS at at 31/03/2011 was 47.16 but for the last 6 months (as at 30/09/2011) it was 4.46. Turnover has been declined massively. PAT is down by 92 % when comparing with the last year 2nd qt.

BRWN EPS as at 31/03/2011 was 30.87. As at 30/09/2011 it was 17.18.
At the end of last year 2nd qtr eps was 13.41. when comparing with the last year same qtr eps up by 28 %.

PAT Attributable to equity holders as at 31/03/2011 was 2,188,219,000
as at 30/09/2011 (six months) it was 1,217,346,000

There was a huge other income about 3,000,000,000 + as at 30/09/2011. It may be because of revaluation of investments.

Actually BRWN was manipulated by few parties when it RUN towards the 400/- last time. lots of retailers also jumped in to the running train. Because of that price came down rapidly when the market coming down.

But seems the environment is developing for a run may be beyond 400 this time. If the 3rd qtr earnings good, there will be a run. when calculate the PE by assuming the APE as 34.36 (17.18*2), it is around 6.63 as at today. Even by 25 it is around 9.12.

So that to me BRWN is worthy at this level. it is up to you. you decide & take a decision.

Remember EPF has been bought 1,000,000 @ 290/- from Mr. Rishan few months ago.

Will see Smile

[quote]

Kumar · 9 Re: Is LCEY and BRWN worth at 230? Tue Dec 27, 2011 10:35 pm

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Osmand I appreciate your analysis.
From the past experiences I prefer LCEY.
(Hoping Plantation and agriculture sector will boom in 2012)
That doesn't mean BRWN is not good.

Hawk Eye · 10 Re: Is LCEY and BRWN worth at 230? Tue Dec 27, 2011 10:44 pm

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[quote="osmand"]

Light of Hope wrote:Any body following these two? or done any analysis? Are these fundamentally good stocks?

Once LCEY was 570 and BRWN was 400

is it good to collect

Howk Eye said - BRWN yes
Think 9 & Kumar with LCEY
aj refused both

I have a question for all of you. How did you come to that answer ? did you analyze ?

LCEY EPS at at 31/03/2011 was 47.16 but for the last 6 months (as at 30/09/2011) it was 4.46. Turnover has been declined massively. PAT is down by 92 % when comparing with the last year 2nd qt.

BRWN EPS as at 31/03/2011 was 30.87. As at 30/09/2011 it was 17.18.
At the end of last year 2nd qtr eps was 13.41. when comparing with the last year same qtr eps up by 28 %.

PAT Attributable to equity holders as at 31/03/2011 was 2,188,219,000
as at 30/09/2011 (six months) it was 1,217,346,000

There was a huge other income about 3,000,000,000 + as at 30/09/2011. It may be because of revaluation of investments.

Actually BRWN was manipulated by few parties when it RUN towards the 400/- last time. lots of retailers also jumped in to the running train. Because of that price came down rapidly when the market coming down.

But seems the environment is developing for a run may be beyond 400 this time. If the 3rd qtr earnings good, there will be a run. when calculate the PE by assuming the APE as 34.36 (17.18*2), it is around 6.63 as at today. Even by 25 it is around 9.12.

So that to me BRWN is worthy at this level. it is up to you. you decide & take a decision.

Remember EPF has been bought 1,000,000 @ 290/- from Mr. Rishan few months ago.

Will see Smile

Th question was whether its worth for 230. and i gave my answer, and I ddint reject LCEY, I said not at this moment

Light of Hope · 11 Re: Is LCEY and BRWN worth at 230? Wed Dec 28, 2011 7:41 am

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osmand, thanks for the info. do have a fair value for BRWN?

seyon · 12 Re: Is LCEY and BRWN worth at 230? Wed Dec 28, 2011 8:20 am

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Hi Friends

LCEY reached to very bottom level due to it bottom line was severely affected by the plantation reported 139Mn loss where as 319 Mn profit last year. Onething i have to point out LCEY 3rd & 4th quarter results will be very much attractive due to the MAHA paddy season, Company's Chemical and Consumer segmet will perform this year as well. Everyone expect after new year there will be small bull run and ASI will hit ti atleast 6500 level, with this upward trend LCEY also will perform.

Related Discussion
http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t10592-lcey-focuses-to-diverse-strategic-annual-report-review?highlight=LCEY

Think9 · 13 Re: Is LCEY and BRWN worth at 230? Wed Dec 28, 2011 8:46 am

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LCEY EPS at at 31/03/2011 was 47.16 but for the last 6 months (as at 30/09/2011) it was 4.46. Turnover has been declined massively. PAT is down by 92 % when comparing with the last year 2nd qt.e financial

true enough! nothin special on both.... ! im just saying from the fact that if ASI climbs up which on will run sooner.

Hawk Eye · 14 Re: Is LCEY and BRWN worth at 230? Wed Dec 28, 2011 9:02 am

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What is the annualised / any other methods of EPS forecasted for LCEY & BRWN and what PE can we apply for these sectors.

aj · 15 Re: Is LCEY and BRWN worth at 230? Wed Dec 28, 2011 9:25 am

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Hawk Eye wrote:What is the annualised / any other methods of EPS forecasted for LCEY & BRWN and what PE can we apply for these sectors.

By looking at the past numbers in quarters and through years I discovered there are several ways to forecast the EPS of these companies.
Think of a random number.
Really.
Check the profits numbers they have no consistent growth. It's just a random number.

Some people talk about MAHA season, MAHA season, MAHA season, seasonal effect, seasonal effect, seasonal effect. I haven't see any consistent growth in the records.

seyon · 16 Re: Is LCEY and BRWN worth at 230? Wed Dec 28, 2011 10:39 am

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aj wrote:

Hawk Eye wrote:What is the annualised / any other methods of EPS forecasted for LCEY & BRWN and what PE can we apply for these sectors.

By looking at the past numbers in quarters and through years I discovered there are several ways to forecast the EPS of these companies.
Think of a random number.
Really.
Check the profits numbers they have no consistent growth. It's just a random number.

Some people talk about MAHA season, MAHA season, MAHA season, seasonal effect, seasonal effect, seasonal effect. I haven't see any consistent growth in the records.

Hi Aj

I did not blindly mention without analysing the financial, LCEY has seasonal effect due to MAHA season, Look at the past 2 years 3rd and 4th quarter

If u have a time even u can analyse past five years trend. 3rd and 4th quarter results are much better than first two quarters.

------------------------ EPS----------- --------- NAV

------------------2011 --------------2010

1st quarter-------- 6.24------------- 2.70---------89.51

2nd quarter --------3.04---------- --(2.52)------- 92.55

3rd Quarter--------23.63------------12.99-------- 110.00

4the Quarter-------8.43-------------- 3.15--------122.74

Think9 · 17 Re: Is LCEY and BRWN worth at 230? Wed Dec 28, 2011 11:22 am

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LCEY EPS at at 31/03/2011 was 47.16 but for the last 6 months (as at 30/09/2011) it was 4.46. Turnover has been declined massively. PAT is down by 92 % when comparing with the last year 2nd qt.e financial

true enough! nothin special on both.... ! im just saying from the fact that if ASI climbs up which on will run sooner.

results wat matters not the explanation. Wink

Light of Hope · 18 Re: Is LCEY and BRWN worth at 230? Wed Dec 28, 2011 7:09 pm

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wow, what timing, it's at 250 now

Think9 · 19 Re: Is LCEY and BRWN worth at 230? Wed Dec 28, 2011 10:08 pm

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Is LCEY and BRWN worth at 230?

1 Is LCEY and BRWN worth at 230? Tue Dec 27, 2011 2:40 pm

Light of Hope

2 Re: Is LCEY and BRWN worth at 230? Tue Dec 27, 2011 3:08 pm

Hawk Eye

3 Re: Is LCEY and BRWN worth at 230? Tue Dec 27, 2011 4:26 pm

Think9

4 Re: Is LCEY and BRWN worth at 230? Tue Dec 27, 2011 4:53 pm

aj

5 Re: Is LCEY and BRWN worth at 230? Tue Dec 27, 2011 4:54 pm

Kumar

6 Re: Is LCEY and BRWN worth at 230? Tue Dec 27, 2011 5:50 pm

cseguide

7 Re: Is LCEY and BRWN worth at 230? Tue Dec 27, 2011 7:41 pm

insidertrader

8 Re: Is LCEY and BRWN worth at 230? Tue Dec 27, 2011 10:18 pm

opfdo

9 Re: Is LCEY and BRWN worth at 230? Tue Dec 27, 2011 10:35 pm

Kumar

10 Re: Is LCEY and BRWN worth at 230? Tue Dec 27, 2011 10:44 pm

Hawk Eye

11 Re: Is LCEY and BRWN worth at 230? Wed Dec 28, 2011 7:41 am

Light of Hope

12 Re: Is LCEY and BRWN worth at 230? Wed Dec 28, 2011 8:20 am

seyon

13 Re: Is LCEY and BRWN worth at 230? Wed Dec 28, 2011 8:46 am

Think9

14 Re: Is LCEY and BRWN worth at 230? Wed Dec 28, 2011 9:02 am

Hawk Eye

15 Re: Is LCEY and BRWN worth at 230? Wed Dec 28, 2011 9:25 am

aj

16 Re: Is LCEY and BRWN worth at 230? Wed Dec 28, 2011 10:39 am

seyon

17 Re: Is LCEY and BRWN worth at 230? Wed Dec 28, 2011 11:22 am

Think9

18 Re: Is LCEY and BRWN worth at 230? Wed Dec 28, 2011 7:09 pm

Light of Hope

19 Re: Is LCEY and BRWN worth at 230? Wed Dec 28, 2011 10:08 pm

Think9

20 Re: Is LCEY and BRWN worth at 230?

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