Trade Summary Market 13/03/2012

164mn NET foreign inflow.

Would like to restate something I said else where today


But the question is until how much should ASI deserve to drop further? What is real reason CSE deserves to go down drastically as some say to 4000 , 3000. What Market PE or ASI does CSE deserve to stabilize at. Especially considering MArch 31 results are aroudn the corner. I am not talking about a bull run , am talking about when will be these drops stopping and then range bound stabilization will happen.

If 5000-5500 will happen for next few months I will be happy.

Else as I mentioned below there will be blood bath. But why ?
http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t16759-asi-4970-vs-5450#110098
http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t16753-is-march-15th-a-good-day-or-bad-day-to-cse#110054


We serious lack some self confidence, determination to meet and face challenges and plan to come out of temporary crisis ( geneva meeting, resolving LLRC etc, trade deficit.) Also these issue are temporariy and can be fixed over time with good foresight and thinking.

Looks like nobody has confidence with anybody in Sri Lanka. Maybe foreigner see something. Maybe thats why they were participating at CSE during these volatile situations. Sad story. [b]

"Looks like nobody has confidence with anybody in Sri Lanka. Maybe foreigner see something. Maybe thats why they were participating at CSE during these volatile situations. Sad story."

Amen to this.

I also don't have any confident in SL politics / economy at this point and I'm terribly puzzled by the foreign participation.

However, i wish to keep my grounds for couple of more weeks before jumping in. Trying to read "Mr. Market" is useless indeed, but I'm taking my chances. May be I'll miss a bull run and learn a lesson

Cheers!

slstock wrote:Would like to restate something I said else where today


But the question is until how much should ASI deserve to drop further? What is real reason CSE deserves to go down drastically as some say to 4000 , 3000. What Market PE or ASI does CSE deserve to stabilize at. Especially considering MArch 31 results are aroudn the corner. I am not talking about a bull run , am talking about when will be these drops stopping and then range bound stabilization will happen.

If 5000-5500 will happen for next few months I will be happy.

Else as I mentioned below there will be blood bath. But why ?
http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t16759-asi-4970-vs-5450#110098
http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t16753-is-march-15th-a-good-day-or-bad-day-to-cse#110054


We serious lack some self confidence, determination to meet and face challenges and plan to come out of temporary crisis ( geneva meeting, resolving LLRC etc, trade deficit.) Also these issue are temporariy and can be fixed over time with good foresight and thinking.

Looks like nobody has confidence with anybody in Sri Lanka. Maybe foreigner see something. Maybe thats why they were participating at CSE during these volatile situations. Sad story. [b]

I agree with your point of view. Increased net foreign buying & volumes (to some extent) are good signs amidst declining indices. With improved company performance (if any) at the end of March and streamlining of the ATS7 might push the market for some time (short term).

Btw, how can we make sure that those "foreign funds" are genuine? and not another ploy from controlling stake holders to keep the market up?

Yes, I'm that suspicious about SL politics / economics! given all the carrots they've been throwing for the last year.

Please someone enlighten us!

Cheers!

slstock wrote:

We serious lack some self confidence, determination to meet and face challenges and plan to come out of temporary crisis ( geneva meeting, resolving LLRC etc, trade deficit.) Also these issue are temporariy and can be fixed over time with good foresight and thinking.

Looks like nobody has confidence with anybody in Sri Lanka. Maybe foreigner see something. Maybe thats why they were participating at CSE during these volatile situations. Sad story. [b]

Well.. we can't blame our local investors for loosing confidence.. they had been suffering from 2011 due to CSE scams and frauds.. I agree that few may have gained a huge profit irrespective of market condition. But majority of locals failed and some still has big unrealized loss.. This is a one major reason why local investors lost confidence. Moreover majority of retailers vanished on the past year due to continuous downtrend. The traders remaining at CSE cannot afford to take a risk and buy due to this volatility of market since they have huge unrealized loss. Even if they want to, they will have to buy on credit. Then again if market not go up within 5 days, brokers will force sell their portfolio which would worsen the situation for them.
So credit won't be the answer. Fresh cash should come in to CSE in order to stable the market.

On the other hand Foreigners are more intelligent than locals. They know exactly when to buy and when to exit with profits. That's why they take advantage of the crushed local traders. When our people panic sell they will buy and when our people have a buying feast they will sell.

monash wrote:

slstock wrote:

We serious lack some self confidence, determination to meet and face challenges and plan to come out of temporary crisis ( geneva meeting, resolving LLRC etc, trade deficit.) Also these issue are temporariy and can be fixed over time with good foresight and thinking.

Looks like nobody has confidence with anybody in Sri Lanka. Maybe foreigner see something. Maybe thats why they were participating at CSE during these volatile situations. Sad story. [b]

Well.. we can't blame our local investors for loosing confidence.. they had been suffering from 2011 due to CSE scams and frauds.. I agree that few may have gained a huge profit irrespective of market condition. But majority of locals failed and some still has big unrealized loss.. This is a one major reason why local investors lost confidence. Moreover majority of retailers vanished on the past year due to continuous downtrend. The traders remaining at CSE cannot afford to take a risk and buy due to this volatility of market since they have huge unrealized loss. Even if they want to, they will have to buy on credit. Then again if market not go up within 5 days, brokers will force sell their portfolio which would worsen the situation for them.
So credit won't be the answer. Fresh cash should come in to CSE in order to stable the market.

On the other hand Foreigners are more intelligent than locals. They know exactly when to buy and when to exit with profits. That's why they take advantage of the crushed local traders. When our people panic sell they will buy and when our people have a buying feast they will sell.

Monash, I agree with your points. But we cannot always win all the time. It takes discipline and patience and knoweledge to pick the right ones. Loosing confidence completely /quiting or only entering when there is a bull run and then buying at the top is not the best tactic. There are period of bear like this. Sometimes we temporary lose some % on our long term holding due to market fluctuation but investors with patience and the right selection will win in the long term. Even for long term or short term we cannot say people who bought CFIN at RS 150, LFIN at RS 115 or JKH at RS 160 loosers right? With volatility maybe will will have drops again. But good stock will always recover when the time comes.

Of course I speak to investor with longer term goals. For traders is it different market and story as you said. Am also not talking about the people who want to optimize profit or always be in touch with the market minute to minute.( full time traders)

Yes of course SLstock 100% agreed.. in this volatile market buying solid stocks would be a safer and intelligent option. But unfortunately majority of local trader's mentality is exactly opposite of that and they always want to chase behind overvalued speculative counters and expect 100% profit within a week or perhaps a day.. They fail to adopt and change their tactics according to the situation. Instead they always expecting a bull run.. Don't get me wrong, i just mentioned what is happening in the market.. I have solid stocks such as RCL, DIMO, UML in my portfolio as well as some speculative counters.
I think lack of knowledge and greediness is being the main reason for this.

These days Sudda is collecting (Last 4days)(when market is cheap). Our Siripala, Sumana, kAMAL are panic selling. When Sudda ready to sell our guys are welcome to buy (When Market expensive)