Sri Lanka Newspapers Thursday 15/03/2012

Lanka prepares for oil find
Another round of international licensing auction soon
* Businesses asked to engage with PRDS to search for opportunities
* University courses on petroleum engineering, operations and management planned
* India’s proposal on hold

Petroleum Resources Development Secretariat (PRDS) Director General Saliya Wickramasuriya engaging the private sector. Pic Saman Abeysiriwardena

The government is planning to conduct an international licensing auction for several exploratory offshore oil blocks located off the coast of the country to the North and Northwest in three months or so, Petroleum Resources Development Secretariat (PRDS) Director General Saliya Wickramasuriya told business leaders yesterday as the organisation commenced engaging the country’s private sector in a bid to building up local content in this industry.

He was addressing a seminar on ‘New Business Opportunities Related to Oil and Gas Exploration in Sri Lanka’ organised by the National Chamber of Commerce of Sri Lanka which was perhaps the start of a series of events where the PRDS hopes to engage the local business community in a bid to involving them fully in this emerging industry.

A trained physicist with experience in both onshore and offshore oil exploration activities during his tenure with Schlumberger Oilfield Services, a unit of New York Stock Exchange listed Schlumberger, he is also a former Chairman of the Sri Lanka Ports Authority and Board of Investment.

Sri Lanka’s side of the Mannar Basin located in the North West and the Cauvery Basin in the North total 50,000SqKm in extent and preliminary studies for hydrocarbons commences in the 1960s. The present government had divided 15 blocks ranging from about 3,000SqKm to 4,000SqKm with 10 in the Mannar Basin and five in the Cauvery Basin.

Wickramasuriya said the government was planning to conduct an international auction for some of the blocks, especially those in shallower waters, in the three months, plus or minus. "Not all the blocks would be auctioned because we would not want to do so all at once, we would like to hold on to some," he told journalists on the sidelines of the seminar.

He said India had made a comprehensive proposal to conduct oil explorations through its state owned ONGC in all five blocks in the Cauvery basin. "We are not under compulsion or pressure to grant their request. The government is yet to decide but it is good to have diverse players in the field," Wickramasuriya said.

Several years ago, the government had offered a block each in the Mannar Basin to India and China but they were not taken up.

Cairn India was the first to receive an offshore oil exploratory license in 2009 and so far drilled three exploratory wells with two striking potential hydrocarbon deposits. Wickramasuriya said Cain Lanka, fully owned by Cairn India, had issued a commercial notification indicating that prospects for finding oil were good. Cairn would have to conduct several more drills to gauge the extent and boundaries of the hydrocarbon deposits which would conclude by 2014, after which a field plan would have to be done which would take the exploratory work to a whole new level.
http://island.lk/index.php?page_cat=article-details&page=article-details&code_title=47437

* Key interest rates left unchanged, inflation to remain subdued
* New policy measures will cut energy consumption
* Banks asked to be prudent lending to vehicle importers

The Central Bank yesterday cut Sri Lanka’s economic growth forecast to 7.2 percent for 2012 less than three months after it said the economy would grow at 8 percent. It also kept key policy interest rates unchanged with inflation expected to remain subdued this year.

Releasing its Monetary Policy Review for March 2012, the Central Bank said recent policy changes would help contain credit growth, dampen demand for energy leading to low inflation numbers.

After more than six months of ignoring a balance of payments crisis, the Central Bank was forced to make a u-turn in its exchange rate policy, increased policy interest rates and placed a cap on commercial bank credit growth. The government too increased domestic fuel prices in order to wipe out longstanding price distortions that took a toll on the balance of payments.

Currency dealers said import demand was still strong which was weakening the rupee, with the Central Bank pumping in rupee liquidity to off set shortages in the banking system and keeping import demand alive.

The bank’s Monetary Policy Statement follows in full:

"Sri Lanka’s economy recorded a high growth rate of above 8 per cent for the second consecutive year in 2011. The continued favourable performance of domestic supply also helped offset, to a large extent, the adverse impact of rising commodity prices in international markets. As a result, inflation remained at single-digit levels over the last thirty seven months, and by February 2012, year-on-year inflation as measured by the CCPI (base=2006/2007) decreased to 2.7 per cent while annual average inflation receded to 6.1 per cent. Against this background, domestic interest rates, having declined to single digit levels in 2009, had remained at relatively low levels until well into 2011, thereby supporting the investment momentum.

"However, the improved investor confidence that led the expansion in domestic economic activity, also resulted in imports increasing substantially during the last year. This in turn, led to a higher than expected deficit in the trade account of the balance of payments. In the meantime, broad money growth continued to remain high in January 2012 with broad money (M2b) increasing by 20.1 per cent, year-on-year, with credit obtained by both the private sector and the public sector contributing to this growth. Year-on-year growth of credit obtained by the private sector continued to be high at 34.3 per cent in January 2012. In response to these developments, a series of policy measures were implemented by both the government and the Central Bank in February 2012, which were intended to deal with the challenge of lowering the trade deficit to a sustainable level, as well as to effectively remedy the resultant emerging imbalances in broad money growth, credit growth and import growth.

"Nevertheless, such measures, while leading to the achievement of the desired outcomes, will also impact the hitherto rapid pace of growth in domestic economic activity, particularly due to the resultant higher energy costs, decline in credit flows, and lower import related activity. In that background, the Central Bank’s projections now indicate that Sri Lanka’s GDP is likely to record a growth of 7.2 per cent in 2012, from the earlier projection of 8 per cent. At the same time, the recent policy measures are expected to lead to a decline in aggregate demand which will have a moderating effect on prices, thereby offsetting to some extent, the supply side pressures on prices as a result of the recent upward adjustments to administered prices. As a consequence, the Central Bank expects inflation in 2012 to remain subdued at mid-single digit levels. The Central Bank also expects the recent policy measures to decelerate broad money growth during the course of 2012 towards the targeted levels, thereby further easing future inflationary pressures.

"In the Central Bank’s view, the new measures will also provide the opportunity for all stakeholders of the economy to search for new productivity gains in the use of petroleum and energy products in relation to both transportation and thermal power generation, with the general public also being encouraged to actively conserve energy, thereby reducing expenditure on petroleum imports to some extent. Further, given that significant inventories of vehicles have built up with dealers of motor vehicles over the past few months, banks and other financial institutions may also prudently consider the limitation of credit for the import of motor vehicles, which would, in turn, lead to the easing of pressure on import expenditure.

"In the light of the above mentioned expected results due to the various policy measures on the monetary as well as macroeconomic landscape, the Monetary Board, at its meeting held on 13 March 2012, was of the view that its current monetary policy stance is adequate to appropriately deal with the issues at hand. Therefore, the Monetary Board decided to maintain the Bank’s policy platform unchanged for the time being, and accordingly, the Repurchase rate will remain at 7.50 per cent, the Reverse Repurchase rate at 9.00 per cent, and the Statutory Reserve Ratio at 8.00 per cent. The next monthly statement on monetary policy would be released on 18th April 2012."
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Renuka City invests Rs. 218mn on expansion

The Colombo bourse posted a turnover topping billion rupees after several days with the indices closing in opposite directions – the All Share down 5.19 points (0.10%) and the Milanka up 18.80 points (0.29%) on a turnover of Rs.1.2 billion, up from the previous day’s Rs.522.4 million, with 93 gainers slightly behind 98 decliners.

The day’s turnover was assisted by heavy trades in Citrus Leisure where nearly 2 million shares were transacted, Bimputh Lanka with nearly 1.2 million shares done, JKH with 0.6 million, Dipped Products (0.3 million shares) and Orient Garments (1.2 million shares).

JKH was up a rupee to close at Rs.195 while Citrus Leisure closed flat at Rs.30, Bimputh was up Rs.3 to close at Rs.36 and Dipped Products up Rs.3 to close at Rs.91.

Trades in Orient Garments included a crossing at Rs.15.20.

Renuka City Hotels PLC in a stock exchange filing announced a Rs. 218 million investment to expand its Kollupitiya property by adding 18 guest rooms, a swimming pool, gym, staff facilities and a ground floor car park

The company said approval has been granted for the expansion and construction will commence shortly.

Three companies, JKH, HNB and Richard Pieris announced the exercising of Employees Share Options with JKH listing nearly a million shares raising the stated capital to nearly Rs.25 billion, HNB listing 19,374 voting shares and 4,177 non-voting shares raising the stated capital to nearly 11.5 billion and Richard Pieris listing 350,000 shares raising its stated capital to over Rs.1.6 billion.
http://island.lk/index.php?page_cat=article-details&page=article-details&code_title=47441

Reuters: The rupee hit a new record low of 124.80 on Wednesday due to importer dollar demand ahead of the April festive season, currency dealers said, after the Central Bank kept key policy rates unchanged. The rupee slightly recovered to close at 124.40/60 a dollar, down from Tuesday’s close of 123.30/70. Dealers said that the highest trade was done at 124.80. “The Central Bank made a wrong decision in keeping the rates steady,” said a currency dealer on condition of anonymity.

“That means heavy pressure on the exchange rate now. But we hope the rupee will recover to around 121 levels towards the end of this month on declining importer dollar demand and expected exporter conversions.”
The rupee has depreciated 8.4 per cent since the Central Bank on 9 February stopped defending a specific exchange rate. A Reuters monthly forex poll has forecast the rupee to fall as far as 128.50 by the end of August.

The Central Bank on Wednesday kept its policy rates steady, contrary to market expectations of an increase, and cut this year’s economic growth target to 7.2 per cent from eight per cent.
T-bill rates rose between 28 to 31 basis points at a weekly auction, despite the Central Bank holding policy rates firm.

The stock market meanwhile edged down as investors stayed away on negative sentiment due to slower economic growth forecasts and fears of high interest rates.

The main share index barely moved down to 5,418.07. The day’s turnover was Rs. 1.21 billion ($ 9.80 million), highest since 1 March, but below last year’s daily average of Rs. 2.3 billion. Volume was Rs. 45.4 million. Last year’s daily average was a record Rs. 102.7 million.

Foreign investors bought shares worth Rs. 71 million, extending the offshore net foreign inflow to Rs. 3.13 billion so far this year, after a net outflow of Rs. 19.1 billion last year.

The Colombo Bourse is one of the worst performers this year among Asian markets, with a 10.8 per cent loss.
http://www.ft.lk/2012/03/15/rupee-at-record-low/