* T-bill rates surge, CB seen absorbing rupee liquidity
* CB says credit growth, import demand decelerating; better results after New Year
The rupee weakened marginally against the dollar yesterday on thin volumes while state banks were seen selling dollars, currency dealers said. The Central Bank issuing a statement yesterday said foreign inflows amounting to around US$ 763 million had come in so far this year, but with a significant portion being absorbed into reserves, the rupee did not benefit at all.
The rupee closed at Rs. 129.90/130.10 against the dollar yesterday after opening the day at Rs. 129.80/130 with trades being quoted as high as Rs. 131.
"Importer demand is still apparent with the festive season around the corner, but volumes were rather low.
A state bank was seen selling dollars which helped stabilise the exchange rate but the quantum of dollars sold was not very significant," a currency dealer said.
Earlier this year Central Bank Governor Ajith Nivard Cabraal said nearly US$ 27 billion in foreign inflows was expected materialise this year. He told The Island Financial Review that a quantum of that inflow would come in during the first quarter of this year and significantly ease the pressure on the rupee.
"Since the dollar inflows had been absorbed by the Central Bank the exchange rate was not benefited by them, instead the import demand, fuelled by credit growth, continued to influence the exchange rate," a currency dealer said.
The Central Bank yesterday said recent policy measures were already beginning to have the desired effects on credit growth and import demand, with both expected to significantly ease further after the Sinhala and Tamil New Year next month.
"The Central Bank is probably right because they see the numbers much sooner than we do. There is some import demand and credit growth, but volumes are thin. After the festive season, we could see things easing up a little in the financial markets," another currency dealer said.
Meanwhile, benchmark Treasury bill rates increased yesterday with all bids for the six-month tenure being rejected in a move currency dealers said was aimed at keeping rates from increasing too much.
The three months Treasury bill yield increased to 10.75 percent from 10.42 percent a week earlier while the 12 months bill saw its yield move up to 11.11 percent from 10.76 percent.
The six months bill received bids amounting to Rs. 3.64 billion all of which were rejected by the Central Bank at yesterday’s primary market auction of maturing bills amounting to Rs. 10 billion. Total bids amounted to Rs. 18.66 billion (including bids for the six months bill) and only Rs. 8.1 billion was accepted.
Overnight interbank borrowing rates eased yesterday from what they were the previous day. The Sri Lanka Inter Bank Offered Rate was down to 9.47 percent from 9.58 percent the previous day.
The Central Bank had absorbed Rs. 19.3 billion from the banking system yesterday with Rs. 14.2 billion absorbed the previous day, in complete reversal from what had happened in recent months where the Central Bank has been printing money to keep interest rates low and help banks cover their overnight rupee positions.
The Central Bank last absorbed rupee liquidity when it bought dollars from the foreign exchange market to build up the reserves prior to the current balance of payments crisis.
The Central Bank statement regarding foreign currency inflows in full:
"As projected in the Central Bank of Sri Lanka Road Map, foreign currency inflows to the country increased substantially in recent weeks. These were from several sources. First, there were significant inflows to the Colombo Stock Exchange (CSE), with the net inflows to the CSE so far in 2012 amounting to USD 164 mn. Second, there were inflows in respect of investments in several commercial banks, amounting to about USD 127 mn during this week. Third, investments in Sri Lanka Development Bonds (SLDBs) were made to the value of USD 87 mn, comfortably exceeding the USD 45 mn, that was maturing and was on offer for re-investment. Fourth, net investments of USD 385 mn in Treasury Bills and Bonds were made by foreign investors so far in 2012.
"A significant part of above inflows was absorbed by the Central Bank, thereby adding to the gross official reserves of the country.
"Further foreign currency inflows are expected in the next few weeks, which would include inflows as a result of several commercial banks raising funds abroad for their Tier 2 capital, and an initial investment of approximately USD 73 mn in a mega hotel project.
"The Central Bank also wishes to indicate that in response to the recent policy measures implemented by the Central Bank and the government, there are clear signs of deceleration in private sector credit growth and import demand. A further moderation is expected once the New Year seasonal demand for imports is over, thereby substantially easing the deficit in the trade account.
"The increasing foreign currency inflows, and the easing of the import demand as stated above, are expected to stabilize the foreign exchange markets in the coming weeks," the Central Bank said.
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