Trend reversal has started! ?

hunter · 1 Trend reversal has started! ? Thu May 24, 2012 2:38 pm

hunter

Moderator

Posts : 786
Equity Stars : 6938
Reputation : 114
Join date : 2011-04-27

I am neither optimistic nor pessimistic. However, I notice a difference in the market behavior this time (after about one year). Market may be still slowly going down but some selected (value) shares are slowly going up. The demand for 'future winners' are increasing.

All these give me a feeling of a sweet tomorrow.
Anybody feeling a difference this time?

Antonym · 2 Re: Trend reversal has started! ? Thu May 24, 2012 2:52 pm

Antonym

Vice President - Equity Analytics

Posts : 1090
Equity Stars : 7450
Reputation : 275
Join date : 2011-02-09

My opinion: The trend reversal has not yet started - but it is not very far away.
I believe that there will be one big sell-off before we start climbing again. Keep some money available for opportunistic buying. Get rid of junk; stock up on fundamentals.

yellow knife · 3 Re: Trend reversal has started! ? Thu May 24, 2012 3:00 pm

yellow knife

Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

Posts : 436
Equity Stars : 6069
Reputation : 21
Join date : 2011-10-07

agree with you antonym

at the rate market is drying up and the turning signals are seen like reducing the volume...once again the first to climb will be fundamentally sound stocks...and soon mpi has to overtake aspi...

Then there will be a stable growth for few years until next cycle peak up...however we have learned a good lesson regarding junks..and also about brokers behind selling junks...

sanjeewa88 · 4 Re: Trend reversal has started! ? Thu May 24, 2012 3:08 pm

sanjeewa88

Manager - Equity Analytics

Posts : 190
Equity Stars : 5002
Reputation : 18
Join date : 2011-06-25
Age : 35
Location : Colombo

My broker (Bartleet) said that the ASI will touch 4000 or recent value by reviewing the technical analysis.

Are there any idea about this?

Antonym · 5 Re: Trend reversal has started! ? Thu May 24, 2012 3:30 pm

Antonym

Vice President - Equity Analytics

Posts : 1090
Equity Stars : 7450
Reputation : 275
Join date : 2011-02-09

sanjeewa88 wrote:My broker (Bartleet) said that the ASI will touch 4000 or recent value by reviewing the technical analysis.

Are there any idea about this?

With due respect to Bartleet, I think they are being alarmist... Technical analysis only indicates likely movements; don't treat it like God's word... In my humble opinion, the bottom is just 5-10% away.
Again, the safest option is to buy shares of good companies - with low P/E Ratios, high Dividend Yields and a reliable future.

bullrun · 6 Re: Trend reversal has started! ? Thu May 24, 2012 4:26 pm

bullrun

Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

Posts : 780
Equity Stars : 5903
Reputation : 78
Join date : 2011-01-31

Everyday you find net foreign buying. I have a doubt as to whether the foreigners themselves sell at low and collect little by little with the exceptional opportunity they have got. We all are in side line. So they can make fear psychosis among new comers and collect what they want at lower price. This is what I feel. Can anybody check what counters they sell and what counters they buy?

Whitebull · 7 Re: Trend reversal has started! ? Thu May 24, 2012 4:50 pm

Whitebull

Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

Posts : 876
Equity Stars : 5392
Reputation : 33
Join date : 2012-05-15

Antonym wrote:

sanjeewa88 wrote:My broker (Bartleet) said that the ASI will touch 4000 or recent value by reviewing the technical analysis.

Are there any idea about this?

With due respect to Bartleet, I think they are being alarmist... Technical analysis only indicates likely movements; don't treat it like God's word... In my humble opinion, the bottom is just 5-10% away.
Again, the safest option is to buy shares of good companies - with low P/E Ratios, high Dividend Yields and a reliable future.

On what basis do you tell that bottom is just 5-10% away ?

hariesha · 8 Re: Trend reversal has started! ? Thu May 24, 2012 5:04 pm

hariesha

Vice President - Equity Analytics

Posts : 1058
Equity Stars : 7284
Reputation : 34
Join date : 2011-03-14

yellow knife wrote:agree with you antonym

at the rate market is drying up and the turning signals are seen like reducing the volume...once again the first to climb will be fundamentally sound stocks...and soon mpi has to overtake aspi...

Then there will be a stable growth for few years until next cycle peak up...however we have learned a good lesson regarding junks..and also about brokers behind selling junks...

In order to MPI to overtake ASI a strong GREG rally is vital. And a good performance of CLND, VONE and LHCL also. This is under current basket of Milanka shares.

We will get the new basket by couple of weeks time. Since it's unlikely that GREG will be dropped off as it maintained its liquidity in the 1st half 2012, a strong GREG rally is vital.

What will be the new shares that will join Milanka for the 2nd half? I think they will include PCH as it was the most liquid share in the 1st half.

Just my observation. Banks might recover strongly.

Antonym · 9 Re: Trend reversal has started! ? Thu May 24, 2012 5:05 pm

Antonym

Vice President - Equity Analytics

Posts : 1090
Equity Stars : 7450
Reputation : 275
Join date : 2011-02-09

Whitebull wrote:

Antonym wrote:

sanjeewa88 wrote:My broker (Bartleet) said that the ASI will touch 4000 or recent value by reviewing the technical analysis.

Are there any idea about this?

With due respect to Bartleet, I think they are being alarmist... Technical analysis only indicates likely movements; don't treat it like God's word... In my humble opinion, the bottom is just 5-10% away.
Again, the safest option is to buy shares of good companies - with low P/E Ratios, high Dividend Yields and a reliable future.

On what basis do you tell that bottom is just 5-10% away ?

Check your charts... After the ASI bottomed out at 1,608 in March-09, it went all the way to 7,864 in Feb-11 without a proper retracement - until now!
ASI @ 4736 would be a 50% (Fibonacci) retracement of that long upmove...

(But, as I was saying, TA only indicates likely movements; don't treat it like God's word.)

Whitebull · 10 Re: Trend reversal has started! ? Thu May 24, 2012 6:36 pm

Whitebull

Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

Posts : 876
Equity Stars : 5392
Reputation : 33
Join date : 2012-05-15

Antonym wrote:

Whitebull wrote:

Antonym wrote:

sanjeewa88 wrote:My broker (Bartleet) said that the ASI will touch 4000 or recent value by reviewing the technical analysis.

Are there any idea about this?

With due respect to Bartleet, I think they are being alarmist... Technical analysis only indicates likely movements; don't treat it like God's word... In my humble opinion, the bottom is just 5-10% away.
Again, the safest option is to buy shares of good companies - with low P/E Ratios, high Dividend Yields and a reliable future.

On what basis do you tell that bottom is just 5-10% away ?

Check your charts... After the ASI bottomed out at 1,608 in March-09, it went all the way to 7,864 in Feb-11 without a proper retracement - until now!
ASI @ 4736 would be a 50% (Fibonacci) retracement of that long upmove...

(But, as I was saying, TA only indicates likely movements; don't treat it like God's word.)

Ok you are telling on basis of Fibonacci......I thought as you had critisized TA your basis is on somethingelse.My mistake....Thanks anyway.

UKboy · 11 Re: Trend reversal has started! ? Thu May 24, 2012 6:38 pm

UKboy

Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

Posts : 1943
Equity Stars : 7337
Reputation : 391
Join date : 2011-02-08
Location : Earth

Not to miss the given opportunities is so crucial in this market.

We can’t change many things which are affecting at CSE. In my 11 years at CSE I never blamed SEC, manipulators or any system. In a 3rd world country you have to live with these things. That’s inevitable.
If a ruling body does something against these things, Yes that is great but you should not be disappointed when its not happening as you think.
Surviving should be your number 1 priority.

If you are not success at least 5.1 out of 10 occasions then you better give up the market. Ideally this should be 7 or 8 out 10.
Making Rs100 profit from one transaction and losing 1000 from another counter does not really recognise you are a survivor.

However my gut feelings say that there’s one more major setback is due before SEC introduce the DVP.

smallville · 12 Re: Trend reversal has started! ? Thu May 24, 2012 7:01 pm

smallville

Associate Director - Equity Analytics

Posts : 4119
Equity Stars : 10107
Reputation : 530
Join date : 2011-02-03
Location : Back on Earth

hariesha wrote:
In order to MPI to overtake ASI a strong GREG rally is vital. And a good performance of CLND, VONE and LHCL also. This is under current basket of Milanka shares.

Just my observation. Banks might recover strongly.

That's a good one.. GREG seems to be a showstopper anyways.. But why MPI has to overtake ASI?

ASI has been on a falling wedge since January and it continues to go down without a turning point being created.

However, we've passed 38.2% rertacement level of Fibocacci and the only hope left is the strong 50% Fibonacci Retracement level. This could fall in 4650- 4750 range, so Antonym's assumption is valid.
Lets see Wink

My assumption is based purely on TA grounds.. So I may be bias or wrong Wink

Antonym · 13 Re: Trend reversal has started! ? Thu May 24, 2012 7:07 pm

Antonym

Vice President - Equity Analytics

Posts : 1090
Equity Stars : 7450
Reputation : 275
Join date : 2011-02-09

Whitebull wrote:
Ok you are telling on basis of Fibonacci......I thought as you had critisized TA your basis is on something else. My mistake....Thanks anyway.

No, no, I did not criticize TA; TA is good at predicting future price movements. I was just saying that it has its limitations because it is not a perfect science.

In fact, IF the Fibonacci retracement happens at 61.8% (instead of 50%), the ASI can go down to 3998. But that's a very big IF - and I am not even considering that improbable scenario.

kasun333 · 14 Re: Trend reversal has started! ? Thu May 24, 2012 7:24 pm

kasun333

Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

Posts : 308
Equity Stars : 5285
Reputation : 2
Join date : 2011-03-04

never comes AIS to 4000 its sure........

Dr_CSE · 15 Re: Trend reversal has started! ? Thu May 24, 2012 11:46 pm

Dr_CSE

Manager - Equity Analytics

Posts : 152
Equity Stars : 4683
Reputation : 10
Join date : 2012-01-20
Location : Colombo 05

Retailers are a vital part of CSE. If a DVP system to be implemented in the future how can we expect the market to rise when the retailers are dried out of cash. DVP system would have been beneficial to the market had it been introduced to follow the 50% and 25% credit clearance during the past year. Then the market would have dropped and stabilized by now without causing this much of portfolio loss.

sanjeewa88 · 16 Re: Trend reversal has started! ? Fri May 25, 2012 12:17 am

sanjeewa88

Manager - Equity Analytics

Posts : 190
Equity Stars : 5002
Reputation : 18
Join date : 2011-06-25
Age : 35
Location : Colombo

I think this is a problem of losing economic expectation rather than a fundamental or technical problem.

hariesha · 17 Re: Trend reversal has started! ? Fri May 25, 2012 4:27 pm

hariesha

Vice President - Equity Analytics

Posts : 1058
Equity Stars : 7284
Reputation : 34
Join date : 2011-03-14

Dr_CSE wrote: Retailers are a vital part of CSE. If a DVP system to be implemented in the future how can we expect the market to rise when the retailers are dried out of cash. DVP system would have been beneficial to the market had it been introduced to follow the 50% and 25% credit clearance during the past year. Then the market would have dropped and stabilized by now without causing this much of portfolio loss.

DVP is not against retailers. You can buy within approved margins. Leveraging more than 100% of the portfolio is not acceptable. It will put everybody in risk. Rather than artificial money, real money should come to bourse.

But they are planning DVPS in next January and this is Sri Lanka, so it might delay further.

sanjeewa88 · 18 Re: Trend reversal has started! ? Sat May 26, 2012 3:06 pm

sanjeewa88

Manager - Equity Analytics

Posts : 190
Equity Stars : 5002
Reputation : 18
Join date : 2011-06-25
Age : 35
Location : Colombo

Antonym wrote:

sanjeewa88 wrote:My broker (Bartleet) said that the ASI will touch 4000 or recent value by reviewing the technical analysis.

Are there any idea about this?

With due respect to Bartleet, I think they are being alarmist... Technical analysis only indicates likely movements; don't treat it like God's word... In my humble opinion, the bottom is just 5-10% away.
Again, the safest option is to buy shares of good companies - with low P/E Ratios, high Dividend Yields and a reliable future.

This is the news article written by one of their analysts.

http://www.island.lk/index.php?page_cat=article-details&page=article-details&code_title=51838

Redbulls · 19 Re: Trend reversal has started! ? Sat May 26, 2012 3:14 pm

Redbulls

Director - Equity Analytics

Posts : 6053
Equity Stars : 16068
Reputation : 770
Join date : 2012-02-14

sanjeewa88 wrote:

Antonym wrote:

sanjeewa88 wrote:My broker (Bartleet) said that the ASI will touch 4000 or recent value by reviewing the technical analysis.

Are there any idea about this?

With due respect to Bartleet, I think they are being alarmist... Technical analysis only indicates likely movements; don't treat it like God's word... In my humble opinion, the bottom is just 5-10% away.
Again, the safest option is to buy shares of good companies - with low P/E Ratios, high Dividend Yields and a reliable future.

This is the news article written by one of their analysts.

http://www.island.lk/index.php?page_cat=article-details&page=article-details&code_title=51838

http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t17982-the-dangerous-reality-of-a-bear-market-wake-up-sri-lanka?highlight=wake+up

Whitebull · 20 Re: Trend reversal has started! ? Sun May 27, 2012 8:44 pm

Whitebull

Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

Posts : 876
Equity Stars : 5392
Reputation : 33
Join date : 2012-05-15

http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t18385-how-to-identify-a-stock-market-bottom#120331

Sponsored content

Name*:
Phone number:
Email address*:
Comments*:
* - required fields	Learn

Name*:
Phone number:
Email address*:
Comments*:
* - required fields	Learn

Latest topics

Trend reversal has started! ?

1 Trend reversal has started! ? Thu May 24, 2012 2:38 pm

hunter

2 Re: Trend reversal has started! ? Thu May 24, 2012 2:52 pm

Antonym

3 Re: Trend reversal has started! ? Thu May 24, 2012 3:00 pm

yellow knife

4 Re: Trend reversal has started! ? Thu May 24, 2012 3:08 pm

sanjeewa88

5 Re: Trend reversal has started! ? Thu May 24, 2012 3:30 pm

Antonym

6 Re: Trend reversal has started! ? Thu May 24, 2012 4:26 pm

bullrun

7 Re: Trend reversal has started! ? Thu May 24, 2012 4:50 pm

Whitebull

8 Re: Trend reversal has started! ? Thu May 24, 2012 5:04 pm

hariesha

9 Re: Trend reversal has started! ? Thu May 24, 2012 5:05 pm

Antonym

10 Re: Trend reversal has started! ? Thu May 24, 2012 6:36 pm

Whitebull

11 Re: Trend reversal has started! ? Thu May 24, 2012 6:38 pm

UKboy

12 Re: Trend reversal has started! ? Thu May 24, 2012 7:01 pm

smallville

13 Re: Trend reversal has started! ? Thu May 24, 2012 7:07 pm

Antonym

14 Re: Trend reversal has started! ? Thu May 24, 2012 7:24 pm

kasun333

15 Re: Trend reversal has started! ? Thu May 24, 2012 11:46 pm

Dr_CSE

16 Re: Trend reversal has started! ? Fri May 25, 2012 12:17 am

sanjeewa88

17 Re: Trend reversal has started! ? Fri May 25, 2012 4:27 pm

hariesha

18 Re: Trend reversal has started! ? Sat May 26, 2012 3:06 pm

sanjeewa88

19 Re: Trend reversal has started! ? Sat May 26, 2012 3:14 pm

Redbulls

20 Re: Trend reversal has started! ? Sun May 27, 2012 8:44 pm

Whitebull

21 Re: Trend reversal has started! ?

Sponsored content

New topics