Have we hit rock bottom or is it deeper!!

MoneyMaker · 1 Have we hit rock bottom or is it deeper!! Tue Mar 15, 2011 2:16 pm

MoneyMaker

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The share prices have dropped drastically in the past 3 weeks. The ASPI and MPI have gone down by 12-15%.
Will it drop further is the million rupee question? but I guess its still to early. I feel the pool is deeper than many of us think .
Predictions are set for March End to April 1st week for shares to gain momentum, but whats important to me is how long will it take to gain the 12-15% the market lost in the last 3 weeks???

Our stock market is behaving like the Sub prime mortgage issue in the US.

Many people have lost millions of rupees in the last 3 weeks, how long will it take for them to make it back?

People have been talking about the Banks & Finance companies having a bull run since Jan/Feb. But it never happened.

Where do we go from here? Is the CSE cyclic??

Easy come, Easy go!!

wikum100 · 2 Re: Have we hit rock bottom or is it deeper!! Tue Mar 15, 2011 2:27 pm

wikum100

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MoneyMaker wrote:The share prices have dropped drastically in the past 3 weeks. The ASPI and MPI have gone down by 12-15%.
Will it drop further is the million rupee question? but I guess its still to early. I feel the pool is deeper than many of us think .
Predictions are set for March End to April 1st week for shares to gain momentum, but whats important to me is how long will it take to gain the 12-15% the market lost in the last 3 weeks???

Our stock market is behaving like the Sub prime mortgage issue in the US.

Many people have lost millions of rupees in the last 3 weeks, how long will it take for them to make it back?

People have been talking about the Banks & Finance companies having a bull run since Jan/Feb. But it never happened.

Where do we go from here? Is the CSE cyclic??

Easy come, Easy go!!

i think market will come back to normal after march 20th march
after election results on 18th and so called "'super moon effect "' on 19th march
Rolling Eyes

StocksWatch · 3 Re: Have we hit rock bottom or is it deeper!! Tue Mar 15, 2011 2:30 pm

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If this trend continues tomorrow, there is all possibility that ASI will go below famous 7000 mark. I remember the investors were so enthusiastic of ASI breaking 7000 mark early January 2011. Some said if ASI break 7000 it will go on and break 8000 easily. It actually went 7800+ in early Feb thanks to some illiquid shares performing irrationally.

Aamiable · 4 Re: Have we hit rock bottom or is it deeper!! Tue Mar 15, 2011 2:35 pm

Aamiable

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Super credit moon effect and the credit melt down effect will also be over. I do not think there is lot of credits left, volumes getting smaller. Those investors do not have credit do not seem to sell with losses at current prices. Unnecessary panic only creates trouble. If the investors understand the situation, they will remain calm.

duke · 5 Re: Have we hit rock bottom or is it deeper!! Tue Mar 15, 2011 2:48 pm

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now what happens is that the buyers are not buying because tomorrow they can buy them cheaper. sellers can't sell because they have to clear but at a loss.

StocksWatch · 6 Re: Have we hit rock bottom or is it deeper!! Tue Mar 15, 2011 2:53 pm

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duke wrote:now what happens is that the buyers are not buying because tomorrow they can buy them cheaper. sellers can't sell because they have to clear but at a loss.

Even the brokers are advising to delay the buying decisions.

Slstock · 7 Re: Have we hit rock bottom or is it deeper!! Tue Mar 15, 2011 3:01 pm

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StocksWatch wrote:If this trend continues tomorrow, there is all possibility that ASI will go below famous 7000 mark. I remember the investors were so enthusiastic of ASI breaking 7000 mark early January 2011. Some said if ASI break 7000 it will go on and break 8000 easily. It actually went 7800+ in early Feb thanks to some illiquid shares performing irrationally.

Yes the curios thing will be how long this 2% ( or even 1%) drops in a day can continue. If it does further there will be blood shed for certain shares and small retailers. Some fundamental share as I mentioned in several other threads are trading at over 6 month lows.

Market is already over sold. It seems panic sellers are ruining the market looking at the volumes traded in the last 2 days. Force selling must have been covered to a greater extend by now after this massive drop. So who is killing the market now is the question?

$$$ · 8 Re: Have we hit rock bottom or is it deeper!! Tue Mar 15, 2011 5:45 pm

$$$

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Ideal scene to create pnic selling as well 50% Credit clearing, Middle east crisis, Japan earth quake , Elections , Lack of foreign funds, CSE expensivest in the world etc etc.....put all this together and a lot of in expereinced reatilers will bail out ....in the past two years thare have been many new comers they are the guys who panic Smile

... I have relations who have got in to the market this year panicking when the ASPI drops 1 point or gets red for two consecutive days ...also stories lik the Bangladesh stock exchange ad fuel to fire .....it's easier to create pnic selling now as opposed to say a couple of years ago Smile

....peole who hold on and specailly who avaerage or buy at these rates are in for a good year ....

godswen · 9 Re: Have we hit rock bottom or is it deeper!! Tue Mar 15, 2011 6:53 pm

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Anyways anyways, I started buying again, most of em won't agree with me with if it's the best time but for me this looks much deep, so i started buying in small quantities, I will continue the buying till Friday.. Twisted Evil

mark · 10 Re: Have we hit rock bottom or is it deeper!! Tue Mar 15, 2011 7:10 pm

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godswen wrote:Anyways anyways, I started buying again, most of em won't agree with me with if it's the best time but for me this looks much deep, so i started buying in small quantities, I will continue the buying till Friday..

Till next week?

godswen · 11 Re: Have we hit rock bottom or is it deeper!! Tue Mar 15, 2011 7:51 pm

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mark wrote:

godswen wrote:Anyways anyways, I started buying again, most of em won't agree with me with if it's the best time but for me this looks much deep, so i started buying in small quantities, I will continue the buying till Friday..

Till next week?

Well if it continues to fall next week also, yeah then i will continue buying that's why I buy in smaller quantities... I have some capital ready! Smile

Chinwi · 12 Re: Have we hit rock bottom or is it deeper!! Tue Mar 15, 2011 8:56 pm

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Technical Indicators like EMA(60d) and RSI(14d) tell us we are nearing the bottom. For past 1 & 1/2 years we saw market dip to these levels in 3 times and each time it touched 55/60 day expo. moving average or when RSI dip below 40, buying started.

Today I started buying slowly some shares. Even these levels prevails for some more days I feel prices are OK to collect.

million · 13 Re: Have we hit rock bottom or is it deeper!! Tue Mar 15, 2011 9:13 pm

million

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there are many good shares i agree but dont have money to collect all so going with these 3.
BFL
KGAL
CFLB

what are the other shares you guys think which are much attractive at this stage ????

godswen · 14 Re: Have we hit rock bottom or is it deeper!! Tue Mar 15, 2011 9:28 pm

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Chinwi wrote:Technical Indicators like EMA(60d) and RSI(14d) tell us we are nearing the bottom. For past 1 & 1/2 years we saw market dip to these levels in 3 times and each time it touched 55/60 day expo. moving average or when RSI dip below 40, buying started.

Today I started buying slowly some shares. Even these levels prevails for some more days I feel prices are OK to collect.

Hey chiniwi!
I remember you were discussing this last November also and it worked... Last time there was turn when it hits the 60d EMA and but slowed down again and later picked up... I think it might turn upward within this week for a shorter period,, But it might fall again! The real scenario could be different so we will have to play safe!

And good luck with buying! cheers

UKboy · 15 Re: Have we hit rock bottom or is it deeper!! Tue Mar 15, 2011 11:26 pm

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godswen wrote:Anyways anyways, I started buying again, most of em won't agree with me with if it's the best time but for me this looks much deep, so i started buying in small quantities, I will continue the buying till Friday..

Yes can agree with godswen. Its time to buy some good shares in small quantities.
I'm trying to explore places where I never been.

Academic · 16 Re: Have we hit rock bottom or is it deeper!! Tue Mar 15, 2011 11:35 pm

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Chinwi wrote:Technical Indicators like EMA(60d) and RSI(14d) tell us we are nearing the bottom. For past 1 & 1/2 years we saw market dip to these levels in 3 times and each time it touched 55/60 day expo. moving average or when RSI dip below 40, buying started.

Today I started buying slowly some shares. Even these levels prevails for some more days I feel prices are OK to collect.

The technical indicators are meaningful when the market goes on a random work. Current situation is mainly created by credit clearance which is an artificial factor. Thus, it is unlikely that EMA provides an indication of turning point.

For example, if the market crossed EMA(60) and many more debt to be cleared, do you think market would go up because of it crossed EMA(60)?

ss7097 · 17 Re: Have we hit rock bottom or is it deeper!! Wed Mar 16, 2011 12:36 am

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godswen wrote:

mark wrote:

godswen wrote:Anyways anyways, I started buying again, most of em won't agree with me with if it's the best time but for me this looks much deep, so i started buying in small quantities, I will continue the buying till Friday..

Till next week?

Well if it continues to fall next week also, yeah then i will continue buying that's why I buy in smaller quantities... I have some capital ready!

godswen,

Give us what shares are worth to invest in these days according to your knowledge.

godswen · 18 Re: Have we hit rock bottom or is it deeper!! Wed Mar 16, 2011 7:24 am

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ss7097 wrote:

godswen wrote:

mark wrote:

godswen wrote:Anyways anyways, I started buying again, most of em won't agree with me with if it's the best time but for me this looks much deep, so i started buying in small quantities, I will continue the buying till Friday..

Till next week?

Well if it continues to fall next week also, yeah then i will continue buying that's why I buy in smaller quantities... I have some capital ready!

godswen,

Give us what shares are worth to invest in these days according to your knowledge.

Hey! Most of em seems to be worth at the moment, But carefully pick the ones which can again go back to the levels they were in before this fall... For now I'm buying CFIN, BFL, GRAN,, Let's see how it gona be today!

duke · 19 Re: Have we hit rock bottom or is it deeper!! Wed Mar 16, 2011 8:15 am

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i tried technical analysis with CSE stocks in the past but they are reliable as much as picking stocks in random

gann · 20 Re: Have we hit rock bottom or is it deeper!! Wed Mar 16, 2011 8:33 am

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duke wrote:i tried technical analysis with CSE stocks in the past but they are reliable as much as picking stocks in random

Technical analysis is the hardest part to learn. Many new comers think technical analysis is just reading indicators.
Why do u think the foreign buyers exited the market in time? Those guys are pros in technical analysis. They knew the market was in the 5th stage and the next correction is going to be severe.

for an example: if you study the weekly chart of ASI... you would notice the index is dropping like a waterfall. No side ways movement. Which implies less people try to average the losses... which implies diminished buying power. All are waiting to catch the bottom to average with the low levels of CIH

We had a correction with some degree of sideways movement back in October when the investors had some funds in hand.

But the consequence of everyone waiting to jump in, till the very moment they see a move up, would give a sudden boost to the market sunny

Last edited by gann on Wed Mar 16, 2011 8:54 am; edited 4 times in total

Analytic · 21 Re: Have we hit rock bottom or is it deeper!! Wed Mar 16, 2011 8:38 am

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I thought I will share my technical analysis on the market with you and appreciate your thoughts on this.

Set Up – The market is approaching Fibonacci retracement level of 61.8%. It is unlikely that market will go further beyond this level however it is a possibility. The level is 6900. All three oscillators are either in oversold region of approaching oversold region. Both Williams %R and Stochastic Oscillator are into the deep oversold territory. RSI, the most popular one is 35 and approaching oversold territory. There is still chance that this could go down.

Trend – The trend is downward and reversal must be a upward trend.

Confirmation – The upward confirmation is still not there. Hopefully we will see it during this week. Both 7050 and 6900 levels are good support levels and 6900 will be very tough to break and we will need to decide confirmation at 6900. However all indicators are point to somewhat correction in the coming days.

What do you think? What would be the attractive sectors if market is going to move up?

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Have we hit rock bottom or is it deeper!!

1 Have we hit rock bottom or is it deeper!! Tue Mar 15, 2011 2:16 pm

MoneyMaker

2 Re: Have we hit rock bottom or is it deeper!! Tue Mar 15, 2011 2:27 pm

wikum100

3 Re: Have we hit rock bottom or is it deeper!! Tue Mar 15, 2011 2:30 pm

StocksWatch

4 Re: Have we hit rock bottom or is it deeper!! Tue Mar 15, 2011 2:35 pm

Aamiable

5 Re: Have we hit rock bottom or is it deeper!! Tue Mar 15, 2011 2:48 pm

duke

6 Re: Have we hit rock bottom or is it deeper!! Tue Mar 15, 2011 2:53 pm

StocksWatch

7 Re: Have we hit rock bottom or is it deeper!! Tue Mar 15, 2011 3:01 pm

Slstock

8 Re: Have we hit rock bottom or is it deeper!! Tue Mar 15, 2011 5:45 pm

$$$

9 Re: Have we hit rock bottom or is it deeper!! Tue Mar 15, 2011 6:53 pm

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10 Re: Have we hit rock bottom or is it deeper!! Tue Mar 15, 2011 7:10 pm

mark

11 Re: Have we hit rock bottom or is it deeper!! Tue Mar 15, 2011 7:51 pm

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12 Re: Have we hit rock bottom or is it deeper!! Tue Mar 15, 2011 8:56 pm

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13 Re: Have we hit rock bottom or is it deeper!! Tue Mar 15, 2011 9:13 pm

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15 Re: Have we hit rock bottom or is it deeper!! Tue Mar 15, 2011 11:26 pm

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16 Re: Have we hit rock bottom or is it deeper!! Tue Mar 15, 2011 11:35 pm

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17 Re: Have we hit rock bottom or is it deeper!! Wed Mar 16, 2011 12:36 am

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18 Re: Have we hit rock bottom or is it deeper!! Wed Mar 16, 2011 7:24 am

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19 Re: Have we hit rock bottom or is it deeper!! Wed Mar 16, 2011 8:15 am

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20 Re: Have we hit rock bottom or is it deeper!! Wed Mar 16, 2011 8:33 am

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21 Re: Have we hit rock bottom or is it deeper!! Wed Mar 16, 2011 8:38 am

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