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ASI lowest since Feb. now what?

+7
Rajaraam
Redbulls
hariesha
Deva
K.Haputantri
Antonym
Slstock
11 posters

Go down  Message [Page 1 of 1]

1ASI lowest since Feb. now what? Empty ASI lowest since Feb. now what? Mon May 28, 2012 2:05 pm

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics

Market today broke the 4960 ASI low in feb. It seems weaker now as people seems to be panicking more. What now? Time to exit? time to buy? It all depends on your investment plans and goals and risk taking.

On one side if this keep up Market can head to ASI 4500-4800 as more and more panic is coming.
On the other side the volume has decreased a lot showing that many panic sellers would h ave exited. ( one time turnover was Rs 3 billion. Now it struggles to make Rs 200-400 million). Some companies are trading at half net asset value. some companies are trading at PE of 3-5. Some companies have shed it value from the top at 60-70%! To be frank this is becoming a bargain hunters paradise with selected shares.


Should we wait to collect lower? Should we sell and buy lower? The answer to that depends on patience and you investment plan. It you sell Rs 60 share now and it drops to Rs 40 then you loose 30+%. But if the share can run to rs 120 whenever the bull comes then it is a 100% gain. Whether you want to optimize and sell now and buy lower at rs 40 ( maybe it will go to
rs 40 maybe not) to gain 200% is up to you. So that involves risk too. As CSE is small market a few unexpected big transactions can make sudden u turns atleast short term. We cannot predict accurately as CSE is one heck of a market now that is not driven by fundamentals or logic. It is driven by panic, fear that shares will drop lower , loss of confidence , further sudden admin decisions that drives investor confidence lower and local and global issues. Now it seems lot of people opt for bank deposits that are offering higher interest rates as a safe haven . But note that there was an indication of Oil prices coming down, T'Bill rate marginally coming down. So this is two sided knife.

I recall a quote : "buy when blood is on the streets". Is it time to collect slowly or wait further to take a higher risk/gain.
Certain foriegn parties seems to be collecting slowly.

Plan and decide your strategy. If you buy now do not regret if share fall lower. IF you don;t and a market turns do not regret that opportunity missed too. CSE is now offering opportunities for 50-100% gain for the patient. If not FD are on offer at 15-17% rates.

What would you do?


2ASI lowest since Feb. now what? Empty Re: ASI lowest since Feb. now what? Mon May 28, 2012 2:28 pm

Antonym

Antonym
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics

slstock wrote:What would you do?

I would neither sell nor buy at this point... Instead, I would analyse which shares are likely to give me the best returns (in terms of capital appreciation/dividend yield) when the turnaround happens.

I would wait for a further decline before buying.

3ASI lowest since Feb. now what? Empty Re: ASI lowest since Feb. now what? Mon May 28, 2012 2:44 pm

K.Haputantri

K.Haputantri
Co-Admin

Antonym wrote:
slstock wrote:What would you do?

I would neither sell nor buy at this point... Instead, I would analyse which shares are likely to give me the best returns (in terms of capital appreciation/dividend yield) when the turnaround happens.

I would wait for a further decline before buying.

Absolutely correct. I too watch the market before jumping as technicals show further declines.Thanks slstock for your analysis of current situation. I appreciate your professional views.

4ASI lowest since Feb. now what? Empty Re: ASI lowest since Feb. now what? Mon May 28, 2012 3:27 pm

Deva


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

I feel this down trend would end by 31st May as the new regulation on selling restriction within 6 months comes into effect on 1st June. Currently, brokers and dealers are dispersing the stocks they have been holding, before the regulation comes into effect. Panic sellers also join the race being unable to resist.

Basically, next week market should reverse it's trend. Else, it could be the worst disaster of the CSE.

5ASI lowest since Feb. now what? Empty Re: ASI lowest since Feb. now what? Mon May 28, 2012 3:36 pm

K.Haputantri

K.Haputantri
Co-Admin

Deva wrote:I feel this down trend would end by 31st May as the new regulation on selling restriction within 6 months comes into effect on 1st June. Currently, brokers and dealers are dispersing the stocks they have been holding, before the regulation comes into effect. Panic sellers also join the race being unable to resist.

Basically, next week market should reverse it's trend. Else, it could be the worst disaster of the CSE.

Logical explanation. Unable to didagree.

6ASI lowest since Feb. now what? Empty Re: ASI lowest since Feb. now what? Mon May 28, 2012 4:57 pm

hariesha


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics

True. Dropping started with good shares. Those were the shares that brokers and connected parties bought under their names expecting future foreign buying.

But for long term investors this is a good period.
Ie: a person who can set aside Rs.50,000/- monthly do have better options now.

• A promising stock like PARQ may be able to buy bellow Rs.10/- in the next few days.
Even speculative counters will become more attractive day by day.
• Look at PHAR. One year back you need Rs.350,000/- to buy 100 shares. Today you can buy 100 for Rs.50,000/- and can buy 700 shares for Rs. 350,000/-. Their last asset valuation was in war time, before GREG buying the company. Latest valuations are due now and surely NAV will come close to Rs.900/-.

With regards to bottom: who knows where? If you are for long term, grab the opportunities as and when others throw them for nothing. When the market reaches the bottom you can’t buy as it quickly bounces back. Even now selling side of order books is weaker than the buying side. But nobody go up and buy. The turning will come with great news. Then people very quickly clear the available seller blocks and there want be any buying chances.

I am amazed the way people are selling. It’s like prices will hit zero. Face the reality in a logical way. Though the market is coming down, underling companies are there.

When I go through the comments in the forum, 99% are for short term. They expect the investment to double in few weeks. When it didn’t happen sell at what ever price buyer is giving.
BE SENSIBLE.



Last edited by hariesha on Mon May 28, 2012 9:28 pm; edited 1 time in total

7ASI lowest since Feb. now what? Empty Re: ASI lowest since Feb. now what? Mon May 28, 2012 7:36 pm

Redbulls

Redbulls
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics

Broker's Hut destroying the sentiment.
Thanks Slstock and Hariesha for the valuable comments.

8ASI lowest since Feb. now what? Empty Re: ASI lowest since Feb. now what? Mon May 28, 2012 11:02 pm

Rajaraam


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics

Any thing can happen. But I am collecting few selected shares including RICH.

9ASI lowest since Feb. now what? Empty Re: ASI lowest since Feb. now what? Mon May 28, 2012 11:18 pm

nkuda


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

NOW WHAT ?...,

As I feel ,

1. locals get panic more and more and sell to down the market more...,
2. When market get down and down Foreigners collect lover PE shares with absolute
bargaining price's.
3. Government badly need foreign exchange for huge balance of payment issue.

Isn't this happening dear Experts ?

10ASI lowest since Feb. now what? Empty Re: ASI lowest since Feb. now what? Mon May 28, 2012 11:38 pm

Rajaraam


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics

nkuda wrote:NOW WHAT ?...,

As I feel ,

1. locals get panic more and more and sell to down the market more...,
2. When market get down and down Foreigners collect lover PE shares with absolute
bargaining price's.
3. Government badly need foreign exchange for huge balance of payment issue.

Isn't this happening dear Experts ?

Dear nkuda, you are 100% correct. Every thing prearranged. CB target is US 500 mn net inflow in 2012 through Stock exchange. Until such time that target is acomplished ASI will remain at this level or lower.

11ASI lowest since Feb. now what? Empty Re: ASI lowest since Feb. now what? Mon May 28, 2012 11:55 pm

traderathome

traderathome
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

This is the time for the collectors....this is not a place for the pessimists.....so buy cautiously and you will be rewarded richly.............. Very Happy and thats what i am doing....i will place some limit orders.....as per my charts published....so it will be in black and white for future reference as well...no hidden agenda or no promoting what so ever. Suspect

12ASI lowest since Feb. now what? Empty Re: ASI lowest since Feb. now what? Tue May 29, 2012 1:25 pm

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics



Guys keeping wacthing, Right time buys can gain you short term turn profit. still market seems weak with selling.

13ASI lowest since Feb. now what? Empty Re: ASI lowest since Feb. now what? Tue May 29, 2012 2:32 pm

aj


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

At the moment I have feeling it's the brokers as always controlling the market as always. It's like mafia. Seems they don't like having laws. They won't be able to distribute the speculative junk shares to the retailers when the laws are implemented. I remember seeing the Crap trust holdings name in many of the the junk shares top 20 lists.
So think wisely and don't think like a Sri Lankan. This mafia wants you to blame everything on the laws and the officials. May be they'll go see the president and say the president said they're above the law when they come out of the meeting.

14ASI lowest since Feb. now what? Empty Re: ASI lowest since Feb. now what? Tue May 29, 2012 9:25 pm

econ

econ
Global Moderator

we are waiting market to rebound since April 2011.. still no sign of recovering.. have massive unrealised losses..

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