LLUB - my projections

salt · 1 LLUB - my projections Sat Mar 30, 2013 12:57 pm

salt

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LKR millions 2013 2014
Sales 12,342 12,960
Net profits 2,105 2,130
Dividends 1,320 1,680

EPS ( LKR) 17.56 17.80
DPS (LKR) 11.00 14.00
Dividend Payout: 63% 80%

Capex : 1,950 normal ( around 100)

PER 12x 12x
DY 5% 6.5%

rainmaker · 2 Re: LLUB - my projections Sat Mar 30, 2013 1:28 pm

rainmaker

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Is this a buy recommendation?

I don't think this is a BUY until we know more about what the rest of the market is planning (especially LIOC). Also the SL govt will most likely prevent lubricant exports as 13% of the market is direct importation.

The LLUB exports are usually internal sales to the SING account which onsell to Maldives and Bangla. Hence an FX drain.

Here is a recent research report

http://kenangasl.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/Chevron-Lubricants-Lanka-PLC-Research-Report-.pdf

Redbulls · 3 Re: LLUB - my projections Sat Mar 30, 2013 1:47 pm

Redbulls

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rainmaker wrote:Is this a buy recommendation?

I don't think this is a BUY until we know more about what the rest of the market is planning (especially LIOC). Also the SL govt will most likely prevent lubricant exports as 13% of the market is direct importation.

The LLUB exports are usually internal sales to the SING account which onsell to Maldives and Bangla. Hence an FX drain.

Here is a recent research report

http://kenangasl.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/Chevron-Lubricants-Lanka-PLC-Research-Report-.pdf

Even the Kenangal recommending Long term buy no?

rainmaker · 4 Re: LLUB - my projections Sat Mar 30, 2013 2:17 pm

rainmaker

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I wouldn't go by their word. The Kenanga report is good to get a better understanding of the business.

The new plant will cost about the same amount as that dividend.

salt · 5 Re: LLUB - my projections Sat Mar 30, 2013 2:18 pm

salt

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@redbuls,
Projections has taken into considerations of actions of competitive forces though Poter's five forces model
However, kindly note that i purposefully skipped recommendation. Its upto the readers to decide the course of action based on numbers

salt · 6 Re: LLUB - my projections Sat Mar 30, 2013 2:25 pm

salt

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If you need to get better understanding of industry, read JBS report which dated though. it has in depth analysis by its word

salt · 7 Re: LLUB - my projections Sat Mar 30, 2013 2:28 pm

salt

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rainmaker wrote:I wouldn't go by their word. The Kenanga report is good to get a better understanding of the business.

The new plant will cost about the same amount as that dividend.

look at pay out ratio for last 4 years
2009 96%
2010 98%
2011 54%
2012 58%

They have built up cash of LKR 2 billion required for the investments