thanks SriRanga for helping on the excel.
https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B-iWbYdaT3TTcnRpUDU5YlRkN2s/edit?usp=sharing
Last edited by lion on Thu May 23, 2013 8:28 am; edited 2 times in total (Reason for editing : Link was not posted)
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Last edited by lion on Thu May 23, 2013 8:28 am; edited 2 times in total (Reason for editing : Link was not posted)
slstock wrote:I think ALchemist can comment on this, He did a valuation of BUKI sometime ago if I recall.
lion wrote:Im trying to estimate a minimum market value of BUKI.N, I have considered only the market values of the subsidiaries, ignoring all the other assets of the company if I consider the minimum market value of the company I get an unrealized gain of atleast Rs. 800/- Below is the analysis based on yesterdays closing price and holding balances as at March 2012. i'm planing to buy the share, would like to know the comments on the analysis, whether its fair enough to buy
thanks SriRanga for helping on the excel.
https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B-iWbYdaT3TTcnRpUDU5YlRkN2s/edit?usp=sharing
Last edited by The Alchemist on Thu May 23, 2013 5:08 pm; edited 1 time in total
seek wrote:@TheAlchemist,
Just a question, if you are allowed to invest only one company from CARS, BUKI and GOOD, which one you select?
I know it is a lazy question from a novice to this group.
lion wrote:Alchemist, thank you very much for the detailed analysis, please give me some time get a grasp of the facts you have mentioned.
meantime can you please explain little more on this para -"CINV Buki stake at Rs 720 amounts to Rs 75. GUAR Buki stake at Rs 720 amounts to Rs 150"
what do you mean by this?
The Alchemist wrote:lion wrote:Im trying to estimate a minimum market value of BUKI.N, I have considered only the market values of the subsidiaries, ignoring all the other assets of the company if I consider the minimum market value of the company I get an unrealized gain of atleast Rs. 800/- Below is the analysis based on yesterdays closing price and holding balances as at March 2012. i'm planing to buy the share, would like to know the comments on the analysis, whether its fair enough to buy
thanks SriRanga for helping on the excel.
https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B-iWbYdaT3TTcnRpUDU5YlRkN2s/edit?usp=sharing
Hi Lion
i think your computation is incorrect as you have not discounted minority interest and sometimes double counted some of the assets. i will show you step by step, a simplistic "back of the envelope" type method to value both carsons and buki
1. Buki owns approx 45 % of Carsons and 35 % of GoodHope Asia. those are its only two assets.
2. In order to Value Carsons, we need to consider what they own approx 53 % of Goodhope Asia, 67 % of GUAR, 75 % of BREW and other assets such as the properties and hotels (EQUIT 1&2 and PEGS)
3. For the Brew sector, since CARS owns 15.7 Million shares of BREW, i took a price of Rs 850 for BREW (although market price is rs 550 - a price arbitrage opportunity is there for you boys & girls ! ) since BREW owns 42 million shares of LION which foreign funds are snapping up at Rs 425.
Therefore, value of BREW to CARS is rs 70 per share
4. For the EQUITY and Hotels, i took the NAV from the balance sheet for these assets and this amounted to Rs 40 per share for CARS.
5. For the Investments sector, i took CARS 67 % stake in GUAR only valued at Rs 300 which is now close to its NAV. you cannot count the CINV and WAPO stakes as they are included in GUAR.
This amounts to a further Rs 70 per share for CARS.
6. Now comes the tricky one - Goodhope Asia Holdings !
a. They own the followings assets -
- 50,000 hectares - mature
- 20,000 hectares - immature
- 90,000 hectares - land bank
- Milling capacity to make CPO (i forget the rated capacity)
- downstream Premier Nutrients group - 2 refineries in malaysia, 1 in india, brands and goodwill.
- 1500 hectares prime commercial property (palm oil estates) in selangor, KL
b. My call is this is all worth between usd 1 to 1.5 Billion dollars nett of approx usd 200 mill debt
based on following assumptions and facts
- they made usd 100 million in 2012 - check the usd accounts figure including fair value for immature property
- some time ago, i was checking on the internet and came across a palm oil company research report " a billion dollar baby " which has only 30,000 hectares mature.
- if you check the latest malaysian palm oil companies accounts / reports, you will notice the NAV has almost tripled from last year (from Rs 300 to Rs 900). This is due to the fair valuation of unquoted securities i.e. Rs 3.5. Billion for 13.33 % of Shalimar Developments which owns 80 % of PT Agro Indomas, a 24,000 hectare fully matured plantation. therefore if Rs 3.5 Billion is 10 % of 24,000 fully matured, PT Agro Indomas is then valued at Rs 35 Billion.
- Also note that the 1500 Hectares in Malaysia could be worth over usd 200 Million. (in 2003, they sold the Bukit Darah estate of approx 400 hectares for usd 35 Million)
c. So all things above considered, lets keep the Goodhope Asia valuation at a conservative usd 1 Billion, although as time goes on, more maturity of plantations, better palm oil prices, improving down stream operations and possible sale of malaysian properties etc etc, the valuation can become usd 1.5 to 2.0 Billion in the near future.
7. Since Carsons owns 53 % directly in Goodhope and further 10 % indirectly through its stake in Buki directly and through GUAR/RIT, we have to assume that CARS owns approx 63 % in Goodhope Asia that works out to usd 630 Million divided by 196 million shares = usd 3.28 per share or Rs 413
8. Now lets add up the CARS components = Rs 414 (goodhope) + Rs 70 (BREW) + Rs 70 (GUAR)+
Rs 40 (property/hotels) = CARS intrinsic value Rs 594
9. Finally for BUKI, since it owns approx 90 million shares in Carsons and 35 % directly in Goodhope Asia Holdings, the equation is (90 million shares into Rs 594) + (35 % into usd 1 billion into Rs 126) divided by 102 million buki shares = Buki intrinsic valure = Rs 956
Pls note that all these are very rough calculations. please excuse errors of omission or commission.
Also note that above calculation acknowledges a slight circular / cross holding problem between buki & cars in relation to its value of holdings in Goodhope Asia and the Investment sector as RIT, which in jointly owned by CINV & GUAR, owns 20 % of BUKI.
seek wrote:Who is the big boy of this group or the ultimate owner?
The Alchemist wrote:I fished out a Colombo Brokers Association Hand book of Rupee companies from 1979-1983.
Details for Buki in 1978/1979
Profit - Rs 2.5 million
Number of shares issued - 100,000 (increased to 400,000 in 1979/1980)
NAV - Rs 333
EPS - Rs 25
Dividend - Rs 12.50
Share Price as at 31st March 1979 - Rs 55
Can you imagine the value proposition 34 years ago ? Oh God - Why was it A'Level time for me ?
[/quote]slstock wrote:You still have a 34 year old Broker guide at home!
Alchem was your father an investor then( and maybe bought BUKI)? You would be a billionaoire.
The Alchemist wrote:slstock wrote:You still have a 34 year old Broker guide at home!
Alchem was your father an investor then( and maybe bought BUKI)? You would be a billionaoire.
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