CSE and future

Hello All,

Thought it was time to make an update on market.  ( actually I wrote the below lat week , but forgot to post).

Hope some of you already read
http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t29674-future-at-cse
http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t30452-market-situation-and-what-to-do


Lets start off with some facts

1) ASI hit nearly 5600 and market was over sold by a lot . Some shares hit 2012 june prices and lower even
2) Next month is a big one for Sri Lanka  due to  CHOGM
3) Also Budget is coming up
4) The expectation for Super September did not come.
5)  The high interest rate times are behind  and Govn is now focused on growth  ;-)  . Most companies with debt should start
   reporting      lower interest payments in due course
6) Gold seems to have settled down to lesser volatility ,  and financial institutions would already have made gold provision based on June 31st. ( Ie Gold is now higher than June 31st)


Now let look at the present Market

1)  Our neighboring countries have reported much better YTD gains  while  CSE is lagging behind.
  (  Our forward market PEs  for overall market and selected share are not bad at all )
 http://www.ft.lk/2013/10/07/sri-lankas-valuations-still-attractive-broker/
2)  Good companies will in due course try to mediate high energy  cost issues   and their reports should start showing positivity
 ( June quarter was bad for specially the industrial segment)
3) Trader who were starved for money got a new life , with massive TWOD, CIFL  fluctuations .
  Small priced stock are one by one going up bringing  hope and important Traders  back to market.
  ( Traders are  the ones  who push prices up) .
4) Order books are showing improvement. Large order come and go (  Means people are there on the side line   waiting for the time)
 Ex :



Technicals :  Some good indication are there  in Technicals like the ASI crossing  the 50 and 200 MA  ( techies already talked about it ),  MACD been positive  ,   RSI been in a region which is decent  ;-)


Investors :
Have your fundamental share not gone up while  crap with no/ess  fundamentals have shot up 50-200%.  Do not worry. There will be time for everything. Await your time . When markets are beaten up, it is not unsual for trading shares to go up first. This is good thing for liquidity.



For Trading :  
Also watch some penny stocks and small cap stock that did not move much since hitting ASI 5600.

Becareful :  

I know it is useless to say but will say so I can use the famous quote here " I told you so" .   Do not run after, speculatives shares that already have a run . Though it might get pushed up , the chances of something going wrong to loose 50% in a day or 2 is high also.




Disclosure:

I have reasons to believe things are  getting  brighter now :-) But  please read my signature.  Stock market is a psychological game and I can be proven to be wrong.  Btw,  true share worth is not shown at times and it depends on who and when enters to push it. (  Raises the question  is Market always right?)
  

Also though I am more into fundamentals , I do pay attention to technical and pattern reading.

BTw, we need to add the 50pts policy cut today as another positive.

Please share your sentiments and opinions. Collective sentiments sometimes can give an indication for market direction .

Btw, we are not talking continous green here . there will be RED days , which are needed for a healthy market.

Another good post in timely manner  

I also sense a good period in CSE. many reputed counters given investors to stand up JKH,SAMP,CIC,HDFS etc:

The severe cases which likely to be a huge disaster (TWOD,CIFL) handling smoothly. So both investors in CSE and company have chances to recover.

Hotel sector to be boost in future with parallel to CHOGM.
Observed almost all the sectors to be boost

I too hope 2014 will be a good year for SL and CSE.

hmm.

Seems mkt is heading to North without any attention to its historical month formula (Oct and Nov is worst)...

Its all in the mind .   Still there are shares that are 0.5 - 0.6 book value and trading at PE of 4-5. Some of these  pay good dividends too.  But no  market interest.  

Right now I see 185 people in the forum. When market start running, let see  how  much it will go up by to join in the fun.
Then many will buy some shares at 20-50% more than now.  ( This is not a recommendation to jump in and load you cart immediately.   Study what are short term shares and long term shares and invest wisely.)

Today afternoon ,  can it get more interesting or will there be a delay for CSE to respond further  like after the last  rate cut ?
( partly market was expecting this with  the green  period over the last few weeks )

Jana1 wrote:hmm.

Seems mkt is heading to North without any attention to its historical month formula (Oct and Nov is worst)...

Market Turnover: Rs 2.500 billion. More than 84% from JKH & JKH(R). Today certainly belonged to John Keells Holdings PLC.

And the future is looking good...!

Since the macro plan is to significantly broaden the market cap, a market environment conducive to introducing big ipo s will be created. Support of the govt controlled institutions will be obtained. Will the future earnings of companies keep pace ?

Nice to see a cautious man like Antony with bullish enthusiasm.

When listing an IPO, a decent valuation needs to be done on the introductory price.     People will be smarter now after the fiasco on SHL, EXPO , CIFL etc   when they chase after IPOs  ( I hope).   As we have seen, the bear made most of the overvalued counters to kneel and touch the ground, and sometimes even crawl with belly up.  

With regard to large market caps being listed , as long as their individual valuations remain  decent , its effects on over valuing overall market will be lesser.  

Broker also should behave ethically, not to make a joke of themselves to value the way they did with share like SHL,EXPO. Big shots and retailer should not make a mockery to value share the way they did on GREG for example  


A collective effort needs to be made this time not to harm the hen that can lay golden eggs.  
BTw,   most of the companies requested to list are not directly under Govn control ( BRandix, MAS, Biscuit manufactures etc) .  

Backstage wrote:Since the macro plan is to significantly broaden the market cap, a market environment conducive to introducing big ipo s will be created. Support of the govt controlled institutions will be obtained.  Will the future earnings of companies keep pace ?

Nice to see a cautious man like Antony with bullish enthusiasm.  

Me too!
Getting ready for action packed couple of months ahead.!!
 

there are some penny counters that can be perform well as well as a lot of counters that can expect better performance. Shall we list the shares which trade lower than the BV first to get an idea?

slstock wrote: Ex :

So can anyone guess what company's order book this is in above example ?

Haha , I was waiting for someone to note/ask  :-)    

For further info, I saw a large order of 400,000 shares there whole day yesterday at Rs 32.  I will keep the guessing exercise  open.
( I am sure Alchemist knows )

Also Bullrun suggested we discuss some shares here. Good idea.  

As I have  time to time in the forum  mentioned / discussed some shares I am  watching, ( still am)  , I will not state them here again.
Some of those share ( which are long term  fundamentals )  have increased in value further  but amazingly still no big interesst  have got in.  Some of them also pay  5-10% divinded yield to current market price. So until the retailer get in they will keep silent.

As a start for a discussion ,  I believe  selected Fin/Bank sector shares are trading at fractions of values they are worth ( Contrary to some people's opinion )

Other are welcome to discuss shares with some reasons or  stats.  

The Alchemist wrote:

slstock wrote: Ex :

So can anyone guess what company's order book this is in above example ?

The Alchemist wrote:

slstock wrote: Ex :

So can anyone guess what company's order book this is in above example ?

Seems to be HHL.

Another good news ( global effect)

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/senate-votes-avoid-default-open-government-20593201

Kumar wrote:

The Alchemist wrote:

slstock wrote: Ex :

So can anyone guess what company's order book this is in above example ?

Seems to be HHL.

It could be but i dont think so. I am thinking of another one. you know the one that has land in the fort. i could be wrong. sls will be able to confirm this.

The Alchemist wrote:

Kumar wrote:

The Alchemist wrote:

slstock wrote: Ex :

So can anyone guess what company's order book this is in above example ?

Seems to be HHL.

It could be but i dont think so. I am thinking of another one. you know the one that has land in the fort. i could be wrong. sls will be able to confirm this.

In the recent past there were 3 options Colombo Fort Land, Seylan Bank Non Voting and HHL. My choice was HHL. Anyway Slstock could confirm later.

Time to time CSE is a good place to invest your money.
The issue with most Sri Lankan investors/traders or retailers (whatever the name) is that, they are always looking for a scapegoat if any negative result occur from their investment.

Very Good post. I missed it as I was out of Colombo for some times. Thanks slstock. I too hope that your predictions would come true.

Fully loaded few weeks ago and looking for new money. 

Finally after a long wait, ASI crossed 6000 2 times now.
Today and tomorrow is  crucial to see whether it stays above 6000 with large volume. If it does, and we seen a run till 6500 , we may never see 6000 Again ;-)


Except for the forthcoming,  March 2014 human right issues, the environment is set for one way in  the stock market. UP.  There can be hiccups in the middle, but CSE nearly had a 3 year dull period.  With CB clearly signalling a path for growth, interest rates/borrowing rate coming down, GSP back in the sack, US, European economies signalling a come back, CSE showing poor performance in 2013 when many stock markets recovered , 2014 appears  a overall good year for CSE ( again discounting the unexpected) .

So, time to be positive and believe. If everyone does , CSE is going to have a good time.  Pointless always being negative. We are here at CSE to gain and not to loose all the time right.  

Don;t make the mistake you made in the past. Don;t chase after speculatives to only hold them high and maybe never recover. Time for mind shift.

slstock wrote:Finally after a long wait, ASI crossed 6000 2 times now.
Today and tomorrow is  crucial to see whether it stays above 6000 with large volume. If it does,  we may never see 6000 Again ;-)


Except for the forthcoming,  March 2014 human right issues, the environment is set for one way in  the stock market. UP.  There can be hiccups in the middle, but CSE nearly had a 3 year dull period.  With CB clearly signalling a path for growth, interest rates/borrowing rate coming down, GSP back in the sack, US, European economies signalling a come back, CSE showing poor performance in 2013 when many stock markets recovered , 2014 appears  a overall good year for CSE ( again discounting the unexpected) .

So, time to be positive and believe. If everyone does , CSE is going to have a good time.  Pointless always being negative. We are here at CSE to gain and not to loose all the time right.  

Don;t make the mistake you made in the past. Don;t chase after speculatives to only hold them high and maybe never recover. Time for mind shift.

Nice to see slstock in aggressive mode.

Treasury rate almost not worth investing now.

http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t32276-tb-rate-down-08-01-2013-423353-bps

The volume on Jan 8th could have been better but it improved over last day. If this keeps up it will be good.

Else the danger is a selected few shares makes ASI go up, and when they fall the other shares are worse priced than before. We seen this dangerous cycle several times.

Anyway, at somepoint market needs to turn around and mentalities needs to shift. We all are so skeptical as the past 3 years was a total disappointment and repeated false ups happened with falls being brutal effecting sometimes the good more than the bad.

People sell off with smallest profit due to the worry, and it does not help the market to go higher up with sustainability. More people need to hold than sell.


Still there are many shares trading at 50%-70% NAV and PE of 5-10.


Can;t still say for sure as the trends is not super strong, but what we need is a run to upto 6300-6500 within january and then settle well above 6000 for the next hike.

Dec quarter may be still like Sept for most companies but staring from MArch 2014 I think companies will start recovering. Gold also seems to settle at around Rs 1200. Some Fin companies evaluated their portfolio around this figure and took safety measures so we might not see more impairments unless gold takes another big plunge ( unlikely )

slstock wrote:Treasury rate almost not worth investing now.

http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t32276-tb-rate-down-08-01-2013-423353-bps

Let;s hope for the best. May all those money come to CSE.

Just above half in market , and turnover Rs 1 bil and trades 8400. About half of it is HNB crossing.

Still not bad . Not bad. Confidence can do wonders.