Elliot Wave Analysis of ASI (all history)

I did bit elliot wave count, on all history and recent.. It shows me attractive forecast.
(Note: Sometimes, I may make some mistakes on counting waves.)

Above chart is all year history,
And this one is 3 years history, (minor counts)

NC wrote:I did bit elliot wave count, on all history and recent.. It shows me attractive forecast.
(Note: Sometimes, I may make some mistakes on counting waves.)

On major counting, (Black) seems its going 5th leg.
Possible targets are;
1.61 ext: 9750
or
2.61 ext: 12850

NC wrote:Above chart is all year history,
And this one is 3 years history, (minor counts)

On this minor countings, its still runs the 3rd wave:
possible targets (Red - capital roman nos)
1.61 ext: 7000 (already hit)
2.61 ext: 7850
4.23 ext: 9200

Possible targets (black- simple roman) (short counting)
1.61 ext: 6500 (already passed)
2.61 ext: 7000 (already hit)
4.23 ext: 7750

So, these all minor counting seems still running 3rd wave. And seems it haven't start its 5th (final impulse leg).  
So over all, I think ASI may have a long run than what we think.. Based on analysis, ASI will break 7800 in future, before any major correction...

Well Done NC ......

Thanks Shark...
If 3rd leg (black - simple roman) end around 7000, correction can be happened around 6500. If so the targets for the 5th leg are:
1.61 ext: 7300
or
2.61 ext: 7800

So, all over says 7800 in shortest impulse counting..
So I think CSE will have good future, so we can earn more >>>

NC wrote:

NC wrote:Above chart is all year history,
And this one is 3 years history, (minor counts)

On this minor countings, its still runs the 3rd wave:
possible targets (Red - capital roman nos)
1.61 ext: 7000 (already hit)
2.61 ext: 7850
4.23 ext: 9200

Possible targets (black- simple roman) (short counting)
1.61 ext: 6500 (already passed)
2.61 ext: 7000 (already hit)
4.23 ext: 7750

So, these all minor counting seems still running 3rd wave. And seems it haven't start its 5th (final impulse leg).  
So over all, I think ASI may have a long run than what we think.. Based on analysis, ASI will break 7800 in future, before any major correction...

As per mine we are in to 3W and could complete @7100 7200 or 7500 as long as 6500 is not broken correction.

Lets check this tonight

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elliott_wave_principle
Five wave pattern (dominant trend)

Wave 1: Wave one is rarely obvious at its inception. When the first wave of a new bull market begins, the fundamental news is almost universally negative. The previous trend is considered still strongly in force. Fundamental analysts continue to revise their earnings estimates lower; the economy probably does not look strong. Sentiment surveys are decidedly bearish, put options are in vogue, and implied volatility in the options market is high. Volume might increase a bit as prices rise, but not by enough to alert many technical analysts.

Wave 2: Wave two corrects wave one, but can never extend beyond the starting point of wave one. Typically, the news is still bad. As prices retest the prior low, bearish sentiment quickly builds, and "the crowd" haughtily reminds all that the bear market is still deeply ensconced. Still, some positive signs appear for those who are looking: volume should be lower during wave two than during wave one, prices usually do not retrace more than 61.8% (see Fibonacci section below) of the wave one gains, and prices should fall in a three wave pattern.

Wave 3: Wave three is usually the largest and most powerful wave in a trend (although some research suggests that in commodity markets, wave five is the largest). The news is now positive and fundamental analysts start to raise earnings estimates. Prices rise quickly, corrections are short-lived and shallow. Anyone looking to "get in on a pullback" will likely miss the boat. As wave three starts, the news is probably still bearish, and most market players remain negative; but by wave three's midpoint, "the crowd" will often join the new bullish trend. Wave three often extends wave one by a ratio of 1.618:1.

Wave 4: Wave four is typically clearly corrective. Prices may meander sideways for an extended period, and wave four typically retraces less than 38.2% of wave three (see Fibonacci relationships below). Volume is well below than that of wave three. This is a good place to buy a pull back if you understand the potential ahead for wave 5. Still, fourth waves are often frustrating because of their lack of progress in the larger trend.

Wave 5: Wave five is the final leg in the direction of the dominant trend. The news is almost universally positive and everyone is bullish. Unfortunately, this is when many average investors finally buy in, right before the top. Volume is often lower in wave five than in wave three, and many momentum indicators start to show divergences (prices reach a new high but the indicators do not reach a new peak). At the end of a major bull market, bears may very well be ridiculed


Three wave pattern (corrective trend)

Wave A: Corrections are typically harder to identify than impulse moves. In wave A of a bear market, the fundamental news is usually still positive. Most analysts see the drop as a correction in a still-active bull market. Some technical indicators that accompany wave A include increased volume, rising implied volatility in the options markets and possibly a turn higher in open interest in related futures markets.

Wave B: Prices reverse higher, which many see as a resumption of the now long-gone bull market. Those familiar with classical technical analysis may see the peak as the right shoulder of a head and shoulders reversal pattern. The volume during wave B should be lower than in wave A. By this point, fundamentals are probably no longer improving, but they most likely have not yet turned negative.

Wave C: Prices move impulsively lower in five waves. Volume picks up, and by the third leg of wave C, almost everyone realizes that a bear market is firmly entrenched. Wave C is typically at least as large as wave A and often extends to 1.618 times wave A or beyond.

SHARK wrote:

NC wrote:

NC wrote:Above chart is all year history,
And this one is 3 years history, (minor counts)

On this minor countings, its still runs the 3rd wave:
possible targets (Red - capital roman nos)
1.61 ext: 7000 (already hit)
2.61 ext: 7850
4.23 ext: 9200

Possible targets (black- simple roman) (short counting)
1.61 ext: 6500 (already passed)
2.61 ext: 7000 (already hit)
4.23 ext: 7750

So, these all minor counting seems still running 3rd wave. And seems it haven't start its 5th (final impulse leg).  
So over all, I think ASI may have a long run than what we think.. Based on analysis, ASI will break 7800 in future, before any major correction...

As per mine we are in to 3W and could complete @7100 7200 or 7500 as long as 6500 is not broken correction.

Lets check this tonight

Sometimes, I may have done some mistakes on ratios. I'll recheck it.
Thanx

Hey shark can u pls tell me, are we at the end of wave 3 or at the beginning??

Can we expect more prices increase or a slight bearish kind of situation like in wave 4?????

NC wrote:

SHARK wrote:

NC wrote:

NC wrote:Above chart is all year history,
And this one is 3 years history, (minor counts)

On this minor countings, its still runs the 3rd wave:
possible targets (Red - capital roman nos)
1.61 ext: 7000 (already hit)
2.61 ext: 7850
4.23 ext: 9200

Possible targets (black- simple roman) (short counting)
1.61 ext: 6500 (already passed)
2.61 ext: 7000 (already hit)
4.23 ext: 7750

So, these all minor counting seems still running 3rd wave. And seems it haven't start its 5th (final impulse leg).  
So over all, I think ASI may have a long run than what we think.. Based on analysis, ASI will break 7800 in future, before any major correction...

As per mine we are in to 3W and could complete @7100 7200 or 7500 as long as 6500 is not broken correction.

Lets check this tonight

Sometimes, I may have done some mistakes on ratios. I'll recheck it.
Thanx

Correction for the above, simple roman count:
3rd wave ext as follows:
1.61 ext: 6600 (break)
2.61 ext: 7250
4.23 ext: 8300

So I think most probable target for 3rd wave, I think 7250 - 7300. And 0.38 retracement will be around 6700.
Thnx Shark for notice it.. I'll correct above major counts ratios too. And I think I've done count correctly, plz correct if I'm wrong...

I don't understand............. This is like greek to me.......................

Can someone please tell me are we at 3rd wave, if so 3rd wave will run upto what extent??? I mean what is the highest point the ASPI will reach on 3rd wave??

As far as I understand 4th wave is something that the market having the correction.... If so market should come down.............. Please tell me upto what extent the market will come down???? Will it come down to 6500 levels or 6700 levels....................

Pls

indi009 wrote:I don't understand............. This is like greek to me.......................

Can someone please tell me are we at 3rd wave, if so 3rd wave will run upto what extent??? I mean what is the highest point the ASPI will reach on 3rd wave??

As far as I understand 4th wave is something that the market having the correction.... If so market should come down..............  Please tell me upto what extent the market will come down???? Will it come down to 6500 levels or 6700 levels....................

Pls

According to my counting, 3rd wave targets are 7250 or 8300. Since, 8300 looks unrealistic, possibly, 3rd wave will end up around 7300. But it doesn't mean that 8300 is not achieveble. We cannot exactly say it. but most of our psychological level is 7300. So if it end 7300, correction will be either 6700 or 6500.So mostly between those two levels.
And dont try to understand this elliotwave counting, its really hard to do correct count. So I may have done some mistakes too..

NC wrote:

indi009 wrote:I don't understand............. This is like greek to me.......................

Can someone please tell me are we at 3rd wave, if so 3rd wave will run upto what extent??? I mean what is the highest point the ASPI will reach on 3rd wave??

As far as I understand 4th wave is something that the market having the correction.... If so market should come down..............  Please tell me upto what extent the market will come down???? Will it come down to 6500 levels or 6700 levels....................

Pls

According to my counting, 3rd wave targets are 7250 or 8300. Since, 8300 looks unrealistic, possibly, 3rd wave will end up around 7300. But it doesn't mean that 8300 is not achieveble. We cannot exactly say it. but most of our psychological level is 7300. So if it end 7300, correction will be either 6700 or 6500.So mostly between those two levels.
And dont try to understand this elliotwave counting, its really hard to do correct count. So I may have done some mistakes too..

And I forgot to say, these targets are for the simple roman (black) counting.(mini trend), For capital roman counting 3rd wave targets are 7600 or 9400 or 12 200. Don't mess all. These are very long term targets.

Good to see Elliott wave being discussed on the forum.. As I have posted elsewhere on this forum(http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t34879-asi-technical-view-7100-11000?highlight=7100), the guy who generally gets his wave counts right told me somewhere in early July that our next target is 7100 provided we don't break 6000 or something like that. and you know what the next target is? 11,000 (he didnt tell me a time frame for that though).

@Puliyanam, I think next 2 months we can hope this run will hit 7100 -7200. And from November to 2015 first couple of months market will pull back market around 6700. After the pull back market will break 7500 and move towards 9100. And in between 2016 to 2017 market may hit 9100. So, I can only say to such period.
When, as long as we'are predicting such long period the accuracy becomes low and low. So, I think its useless, and its not easy task since, we're in end of 2014.  
So, break of 11,000 I think after 2020.  
Seems like palm readings ne (normally, we read our palms for fun, I also did this for fun. However, I think I count it correctly.)
(feels reading the horoscope of ASI )

@Puliyanam, who's that guy you're told? Do you know him?

NC wrote:@Puliyanam, I think next 2 months we can hope this run will hit 7100 -7200. And from November to 2015 first couple of months market will pull back market around 6700. After the pull back market will break 7500 and move towards 9100. And in between 2016 to 2017 market may hit 9100. So, I can only say to such period.
When, as long as we'are predicting such long period the accuracy becomes low and low. So, I think its useless, and its not easy task since, we're in end of 2014.  
So, break of 11,000 I think after 2020.  
Seems like palm readings ne (normally, we read our palms for fun, I also did this for fun. However, I think I count it correctly.)
(feels reading the horoscope of ASI )

Agreed NC. It feels like palm reading only.. but when many people use it, it becomes reality....The guy is from our neighboring country....I have contacts with him.. may visit Colombo this month Im told. Will update if he makes his pronouncements....

Dear Shark/NC,
I wish to learn the technical analysis & charts. Can you help me? Please tell the information sources to start with. Much appreciate your kind assistance

Maximillion wrote:Dear Shark/NC,
I wish to learn the technical analysis & charts. Can you help me? Please tell the information sources to start with. Much appreciate your kind assistance

Follow this website. There're more but, for a beginner this site is good. http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis

NC wrote:

Maximillion wrote:Dear Shark/NC,
I wish to learn the technical analysis & charts. Can you help me? Please tell the information sources to start with. Much appreciate your kind assistance

Follow this website. There're more but, for a beginner this site is good. http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis

Try to learn some basics above chaos and fractals..you can google. here are some valuable lecs by a Pro.
http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t36531-bill-williams-lec-about-choas-and-fractals