VPEL - News Just in

What is the support level?
I feared after the xd date,,,

RPPA wrote:

SHARK aka TAH wrote:Your valuation 1st H looks a bit high compared to BRR I am waiting for the Report if your valuation stands right, then we should see good in VPEL way above i mean 8rs

Shark

There is another news that the tariff (main income) for the these hydro power plants also to be increased by CEB. No dates has given as yet.

I again checked and news is that the price will appreciate further. So i think VPEL will break 8/- sooner rather than later.

Hope for the best

Good luck

But already increased effective September 2014, this is what i know Another Hike i am afraid about that info.

SHARK aka TAH wrote:

RPPA wrote:

SHARK aka TAH wrote:Your valuation 1st H looks a bit high compared to BRR I am waiting for the Report if your valuation stands right, then we should see good in VPEL way above i mean 8rs

Shark

There is another news that the tariff (main income) for the these hydro power plants also to be increased by CEB. No dates has given as yet.

I again checked and news is that the price will appreciate further. So i think VPEL will break 8/- sooner rather than later.

Hope for the best

Good luck

But already increased effective September 2014, this is what i know Another Hike i am afraid about that info.

I'll post another update tomorrow after searching further.

The one i see given by tinyman is effective 01.01.2014 but as per BRR they stated another increase effective Sept 2014

Thanks for the update:D

Quote from BRR 20.10.14

Measured revenue growth supported by high margins

Given the performance in Q1 FY 15, we believe the company would generate lower at an esti-mated cumulative capacity of 82mn/kWh in FY 2015E. We believe the turnaround in weather during the latter half of Q2 FY 15 coupled with an average increase of 28% in tariff during the end of September, would help VPEL boost revenue for FY 2015E. The growth however, we estimate to be flat. We have increased our estimated generation to 84mn/kWh and 87mn/ kWh in FY 2016E and FY 2017E respectively, with an eye on the volatility of weather. EBIT margins in the forecast period average at 76% driving bottom line.

Though the equity market is always being orchestrated by a handful of HNWI s, VPEL definitely ranks among the most fundamentally sound stocks of the CSE. Public holdings is about 13.97% and order book scrum is always tight. Whoever push and dispose VPEL at LKR 7 - 8, it should obviously pass the single digit price. My assumption is somewhere around LKR 11.90 VPEL should settle if all the factors are in place accordingly .. Remember, the most dividend friendly DP managed PLC s equity of P & E sector .. And deserves little respect .. Happy trading folks !

gayanath1983 wrote:

RPPA wrote:

gayanath1983 wrote:

schemer wrote:mechchara ikmanata rs 7.50 ta giyoth marune.

OYATH ATHA GAHALA WAGE.

ow ow mama nam gaththa...

.
this is one of my old investment. i keep it for dividend. i have non trading portfolio that I keep only for dividend.
namu kgal ,hnb.x,comb.x ,vpel,glas. this portfolio I do not trade. but any of stock shoot up rapidly I will sell to buy cheap later.

Chanuque wrote:Though the equity market is always being orchestrated by a handful of HNWI s, VPEL definitely ranks among the most fundamentally sound stocks of the CSE. Public holdings is about 13.97% and order book scrum is always tight. Whoever push and dispose VPEL at LKR 7 - 8, it should obviously pass the single digit price. My assumption is somewhere around LKR 11.90 VPEL should settle if all the factors are in place accordingly .. Remember, the most dividend friendly DP managed PLC s equity of P & E sector .. And deserves little respect .. Happy trading folks !

if we average VLL and PAP PE on annulised we end up at 16 PE whilst VPEL stands at 8.8 at CMP 7.10 (btw VPEL .20 EPS 1st quarter) as we know VPEL 2nd qtr should do well setting aside this better performance, if we apply avg 16 PE to VPEL then we get 12.80rs

Something has to get corrected either VLL/PAP or VPEL

RPPA wrote:

SHARK aka TAH wrote:

RPPA wrote:

SHARK aka TAH wrote:Your valuation 1st H looks a bit high compared to BRR I am waiting for the Report if your valuation stands right, then we should see good in VPEL way above i mean 8rs

Shark

There is another news that the tariff (main income) for the these hydro power plants also to be increased by CEB. No dates has given as yet.

I again checked and news is that the price will appreciate further. So i think VPEL will break 8/- sooner rather than later.

Hope for the best

Good luck

But already increased effective September 2014, this is what i know Another Hike i am afraid about that info.

I'll post another update tomorrow after searching further.

Dear RPPA below is a quote from BRR

The rising average tariff per unit paid by the CEB

The government has raised the tariffs paid to IPPs for both wet and dry sea-son. In September 2014, the CEB revised the rates to LKR 15.90/kWh (+29.16%) during the dry season and LKR 14.87/kWh (+28.08%) during the wet season (FY 2013: dry - LKR 12.31, wet - LKR 11.61). The increase in the

‘avoided cost tariff estimation’ is the main top line driver for VPEL. unquote So Tariff is already increased so there cant be another unless they compensate for the 01.01.2014 effective notification or update it 01.01.2015 with a new one, i doubt CEB will do another revision given the circumstances ....

SHARK aka TAH wrote:

RPPA wrote:

SHARK aka TAH wrote:

RPPA wrote:

SHARK aka TAH wrote:Your valuation 1st H looks a bit high compared to BRR I am waiting for the Report if your valuation stands right, then we should see good in VPEL way above i mean 8rs

Shark

There is another news that the tariff (main income) for the these hydro power plants also to be increased by CEB. No dates has given as yet.

I again checked and news is that the price will appreciate further. So i think VPEL will break 8/- sooner rather than later.

Hope for the best

Good luck

But already increased effective September 2014, this is what i know Another Hike i am afraid about that info.

I'll post another update tomorrow after searching further.

Dear RPPA below is a quote from BRR

The rising average tariff per unit paid by the CEB

The government has raised the tariffs paid to IPPs for both wet and dry sea-son. In September 2014, the CEB revised the rates to LKR 15.90/kWh (+29.16%) during the dry season and LKR 14.87/kWh (+28.08%) during the wet season (FY 2013: dry - LKR 12.31, wet - LKR 11.61). The increase in the

‘avoided cost tariff estimation’ is the main top line driver for VPEL. unquote So Tariff is already increased so there cant be another unless they compensate for the 01.01.2014 effective notification or update it 01.01.2015 with a new one, i doubt CEB will do another revision given the circumstances ....

.

So there are 2 possibilities for the price movement.

One would be that the 2nd QTR earnings should be great,

And the Second would be that some one want to liquidate their quantities at a higher price.

Otherwise there is no reason for sudden upward movement in prices.

Will see what will happen tomorrow. I wish for a upward trend,

Shark-ThanKs for the effort put in.

i think we have discussed about power and energy stocks
specially vpel before months.
i think SLEF followers got good return.
I think we discussed at 5.80 level.

Dr Stock wrote:VPEL moved as we expected.
the day thread started it was Rs 5.80 now  Rs 6.80.
Nearly 17 % upward price movement.

i think more to come.

SHARK aka TAH wrote: .. if we average VLL and PAP PE on annulised we end up at 16 PE whilst VPEL stands at 8.8 at CMP 7.10 (btw VPEL .20 EPS 1st quarter) as we know VPEL 2nd qtr should do well setting aside this better performance, if we apply avg 16 PE to VPEL then we get 12.80rs

Something has to get corrected either VLL/PAP or VPEL ..

@SHARK aka TAH | in my understanding the disadvantage with PAP.N is that the greater public holding ( 56.58% ) where the manipulators have little room to play. So, we would not be able to catch any wave. The other hand VLL.N has already started its run before VPEL.N .. Cheers !

RPPA wrote:

SHARK aka TAH wrote:

RPPA wrote:

SHARK aka TAH wrote:

RPPA wrote:

SHARK aka TAH wrote:Your valuation 1st H looks a bit high compared to BRR I am waiting for the Report if your valuation stands right, then we should see good in VPEL way above i mean 8rs

Shark

There is another news that the tariff (main income) for the these hydro power plants also to be increased by CEB. No dates has given as yet.

I again checked and news is that the price will appreciate further. So i think VPEL will break 8/- sooner rather than later.

Hope for the best

Good luck

But already increased effective September 2014, this is what i know Another Hike i am afraid about that info.

I'll post another update tomorrow after searching further.

Dear RPPA below is a quote from BRR

The rising average tariff per unit paid by the CEB

The government has raised the tariffs paid to IPPs for both wet and dry sea-son. In September 2014, the CEB revised the rates to LKR 15.90/kWh (+29.16%) during the dry season and LKR 14.87/kWh (+28.08%) during the wet season (FY 2013: dry - LKR 12.31, wet - LKR 11.61). The increase in the

‘avoided cost tariff estimation’ is the main top line driver for VPEL. unquote So Tariff is already increased so there cant be another unless they compensate for the 01.01.2014 effective notification or update it 01.01.2015 with a new one, i doubt CEB will do another revision given the circumstances ....

.

So there are 2 possibilities for the price movement.

One would be that the 2nd QTR earnings should be great,

And the Second would be that some one want to liquidate their quantities at a higher price.

Otherwise there is no reason for sudden upward movement in prices.

Will see what will happen tomorrow. I wish for a upward trend,

Shark-ThanKs for the effort put in.

Shark

What you have said is perfectly correct i am wrong. The prices has increased in Sept'2014 & VPEL will earn an average additional income of Rs.200,000 on daily basis known sources said.

If more rainfall receives plus increased generation of power with increased tariffs effective sept 2014, all we could assume better dividend yield in coming periods will automatically push to double digits. so we need VPEL to do well in coming quarters

SHARK aka TAH wrote:If more rainfall receives plus increased generation of power with increased tariffs effective sept 2014, all we could assume better dividend yield in coming periods will automatically push to double digits. so we need VPEL to do well in coming quarters

Good Luck all VPEL lovers and fans...!

SHARK aka TAH wrote:If more rainfall receives plus increased generation of power with increased tariffs effective sept 2014, all we could assume better dividend yield in coming periods will automatically push to double digits. so we need VPEL to do well in coming quarters

But i think there will be some twist very very soon. May be today, tomorrow as Big bosses 2 brothers & sister is holding sisable quantities (SHAREHOLDERS 4,5 & 6).

Ayyo monawa weido

mokak hari wei wage thamai...

If we analyse the dividends payment dates as indicated in cse website, except 1 year 2011/2012 dividend was paid as interim and in november. no follow up with a final. rest and majority of time it was announced in January every year and though it mentioned interim dividends we got 1 payment.
This year interim came in September so i am taking a calculated guess that in 2 or 2 and half months we should get a final dividend in January 2015.

So who ever holding should consider this point.

If they match up to the interim or slightly better then .50c or 60c will this be a futire GEM like PLC and JINS and TJL to trade in the Double Digit.

So please do not need to panic with what you hear or people say.

We should go by what is declared on the table yes

VPEL has paid regular dividends, some times 1 interim or sometimes 2 like in the case of last year.

So i am optimistic on this for them to declare one more for 2014/2015

Looking at 2013/2014 2 dividends paid, they have broken being stereo type thinking and given back to shareholders.

So think wise and look longterm with this share, as i see something in this share going forward

As far as we see AIA one of T20 shareholder is shedding its stake since 2013, which should not be taken as seriously. VPEL dividend policy should rally small investors like us around it.

Good luck

SHARK

VPEL in the T20 the company and related family parties hold around 85%. Thh free float is less than 20% I think. As such I hear that there board meeting is 29th and they are looking at a bonus issue. They have closer to 2 billion reserves so they can capitalise that. Well the earnings as I posted and dividends in my previous posts still stands. I am very bullish on this. I have bought at 5.80, 6.70 and today at 7 again. I hold more than 200,0000 share now. Hoping for the best...short to medium term.

Invest-Wise wrote:VPEL in the T20 the company and related family parties hold around 85%. Thh free float is less than 20% I think. As such I hear that there board meeting is 29th and they are looking at a bonus issue. They have closer to 2 billion reserves so they can capitalise that. Well the earnings as I posted and dividends in my previous posts still stands. I am very bullish on this. I have bought at 5.80, 6.70 and today at 7 again. I hold more than 200,0000 share now. Hoping for the best...short to medium term.

Man you have nailed it.
Not sure about share split/capitalisation of reserves.

But some one want to sell.

I have the same sentiments. I hold around 400,000 now. Even I heard something in the wind about the bonus issue. Didn't want to bring it up as I was not sure, but since someone I don't know brought it up I am much more likely to believe it now. Let's see how it plays out.

I did some numbers and came out with the forecasted Q2 profit of 441mn, and 816 for the FY. Hope you would find this interesting. I did this few weeks back, that's why price is taken at 6.30 to compute PE ratio

Thanks Tiny

Bonus Issue Now or Jan 2015 No problem, that is what i was trying to get at, why would they give an early Interim when the 2nd and 3rd quarters are the strongest.
This is further evidenced by your forecast.

Thanks for that Tiny.

So chances are wait till 29th Meeting, and if the disclosure come good otherwise will wait till Jan 2015 to see any possibility of Final Dividend this time around

BTW i just saw you have forecasted a further 0.50c dividends, is this after my post or you also thought in same lines

Fantastic work TM

Go VPEL Go

200K order @7.10 is it one of our SLEF brothers

SHARK aka TAH wrote:Thanks Tiny

Bonus Issue Now or Jan 2015 No problem, that is what i was trying to get at, why would they give an early Interim when the 2nd and 3rd quarters are the strongest.
This is further evidenced by your forecast.

Thanks for that Tiny.

So chances are wait till 29th Meeting, and if the disclosure come good otherwise will wait till Jan 2015 to see any possibility of Final Dividend this time around

BTW i just saw you have forecasted a further 0.50c dividends, is this after my post or you also thought in same lines

Fantastic work TM

Go VPEL Go

I did this forecast few weeks back and mentioned about on forum.srilankaequity.com/t36717-look-at-vll-vpel-and-power-sector

Forecasted Dividend is based on their cash build up. however if you notice the DPS & the addition to reserves are not exactly tallying with the last year figures, worst case scenario they will declare a 0.35 dividend.

Although the public float & reserves support the bonus speculation, I purchased this share only bases on dividend income. If bonus is announced it will be a real bonus to me.

tinyman wrote:I did some numbers and came out with the forecasted Q2 profit of 441mn, and 816 for the FY. Hope you would find this interesting. I did this few weeks back, that's why price is taken at 6.30 to compute PE ratio

Good Job. " tinyman"

Is really useful.

tinyman wrote:

SHARK aka TAH wrote:Thanks Tiny

Bonus Issue Now or Jan 2015 No problem, that is what i was trying to get at, why would they give an early Interim when the 2nd and 3rd quarters are the strongest.
This is further evidenced by your forecast.

Thanks for that Tiny.

So chances are wait till 29th Meeting, and if the disclosure come good otherwise will wait till Jan 2015 to see any possibility of Final Dividend this time around

BTW i just saw you have forecasted a further 0.50c dividends, is this after my post or you also thought in same lines

Fantastic work TM

Go VPEL Go

I did this forecast few weeks back and mentioned about on forum.srilankaequity.com/t36717-look-at-vll-vpel-and-power-sector

Forecasted Dividend is based on their cash build up. however if you notice the DPS & the addition to reserves are not exactly tallying with the last year figures, worst case scenario they will declare a 0.35 dividend.

Although the public float & reserves support the bonus speculation, I purchased this share only bases on dividend income. If bonus is announced it will be a real bonus to me.

In fact i too think going by the prediction 50c a tad high, if the diff can be compensated by some other mean share will appreciate to DD and stay as a support.

Lets wait for this announcement .......
ada ne heta wage ekak the danne nehe ne

VPEL Q2 results are out.. at 1st glance the profit is 370mn (attributable to SH) against my prediction of 441mn. However looking at the details I noticed that they have not recognized the additional revenue arising from generation during Jan - June due to the tariff change. Which is worked out to be

Erathna power plant -  45,366,124
Country Energy plants (Share attributable to Parent) -  47,168,695

Thus the total addition to the bottom line would be  92,534,819.

I presume they have not recognized this in to the account to avoid a spike in their performance and to recognize in upcoming dry period. One other reason I can think of is that although the tariff publication is made by CEB, VPEL may have not received the payment for the additional revenue for the past period yet.

Just Posting a comparison against my initial forecast.



Disclosure : I'm working out the revenue based on the generation units published on VPEL website and the recent tariff publication which can be found on the other thread I referred in this thread. All other numbers are extrapolation & rational estimates to the historical figures. MI is worked out based on the MI shareholding disclosed in their annual report which is 12.8%.

I'm in no way associated with VPEL or with the related parties directly or indirectly. I acquired nearly 100,000 shares of VPEL since the new tariff announcement was made.