Technical Analytics & Charts (3)

Markets stopped around 7171. It is a key area. These types of short term volatility are part of market journey and they create opportunities especially in a major uptrend. I know why Shark changed his picture today? Good luck!

Yes I am a bit nervous and expecting a change

SHARK aka TAH wrote:[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]

Target Retracement @88.6% Lets see how this will progress from now onwards

I'm more towards on 7000 - 6800. Bcz look at the daily red bar, its size getting bigger and its lowest price and closing price almost same.
Sometimes, tomorrow will be green, if it not break todays lowest level and this week could retest the resistance of 7200...
Just hope..

I too think but a reversal can't be ruled out

Q3 results and budget will be main factors.

Don't expect a big correction as lot of money is still out there to be invested

7000-7150 is the lowest levels i think

6800 would be very good indeed. When I first said in the forum, some new members took it negatively and opened a thread asking 6800. If we fear the market then we are not going to make much out of this. The market can ping pong probably till elections are over. Just sharing my thoughts. Let's see how Thursday n Friday will fair.

6800 is strong technically as well mentally. total asi behaviour ln last 10 yrs are in my mind. i am fear when it is above 7000 and below 5500 . that range is effective for any one who understood market well. they can play safely during ups n down. i cannot expect next major up trend for another 5-6 months. u hv2 carefull before. buying correct stock for trading.

Good luck! Suba anagathayak.

NC wrote:

SHARK aka TAH wrote:[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]

Target Retracement @88.6% Lets see how this will progress from now onwards

I'm more towards on 7000 - 6800. Bcz look at the daily red bar, its size getting bigger and its lowest price and closing price almost same.
Sometimes, tomorrow will be green, if it not break todays lowest level and this week could retest the resistance of 7200...
Just hope..

Re: Technical Analytics & Charts
Post by SHARK aka TAH Yesterday at 6:09 pm


Post by SHARK aka TAH
-
6800 would be very good indeed. When I first said in the forum, some new members took it negatively and opened a thread asking 6800. If we fear the market then we are not going to make much out of this. The market can ping pong probably till elections are over. Just sharing my thoughts. Let's see how Thursday n Friday will fair.

NC & SHARK

As far as i know technical analysts do their forecasts based on past data & trends. And the above predictions on ASI to 7000 & 68000 (may happen as both of u said) are also based on such analysis. Correct me if i am wrong.

NC SAID THIS TOO-Sometimes, tomorrow will be green, if it not break todays lowest level and this week could retest the resistance of 7200...
Just hope..[/quote]

SHARK-]Let's see how Thursday n Friday will fair.

This is what i feel

What i feel is just a based graphical & technical analysis only decisions should not be taken.The environmental & economic factors also should be considered.
So please check the in the past ASI with Interest rate fluctuations & how it has behaved too as one key factor. And we definitely know there is a negative correlation (when interest rate goes up market comes down & vice versa) between those two.

When considering the current context there is no current negative impact in interest rate to the market for it to be come down for as 6,800 & 7,000. For me this is a temporary setback. which will come to positivity soon especially after the uncertainty of budget has cleared.

Plus we need to look at the market liquidity which is in actual terms around 300Bn which belongs in total to the finance sector kept short term with CBSL (OMO transactions). And as per yesterday the Market excess is Rs.14Bn. So there is no bubble as such.

There is no problems with inflation too. it is around 3.5% year on year.

Therefor i feel the market will bounce back within next 2 days.

Thank you.

We saw some new about Mobius trying to enter, Who knows they feel the Market is already too much UP and they want a correction of some sort.

The PE is to be held in few Months time, so there are many other factors.

I am not saying 6800 is a must but i am trying to mentally toughen up the Newbies, so that they prepare them self for the longer Run.

This way they will wait patiently without jumping too early.

This is the message i want to send across to broader members here.

We're coming down from 7400.

Anything below 7000 will have serious effects - specially on the retailers.

I am very sure market will not go below 7150-7000 range i mentioned.

SHARK aka TAH wrote:We saw some new about Mobius trying to enter, Who knows they feel the Market is already too much UP and they want a correction of some sort.

The PE is to be held in few Months time, so there are many other factors.

I am not saying 6800 is a must but i am trying to mentally toughen up the Newbies, so that they prepare them self for the longer Run.

This way they will wait patiently without jumping too early.

This is the message i want to send across to broader members here.

Just an idea brother.
I understand your point now.
You are right My only worry is market P/E (above 19 on paper). All other factors i am very comfortable at least till 31/12/2014.

The other point i want to stress is that we have be dynamic in our thinking especially in a stock market.

now just imagine a scenario like this ASI we are biased towards 6800 and assume from Thu onwards Market turns around @ 7175 and start appreciate again and we see 2 GREEN days. And eventually GAIN 200 points on ASI.

Should we then wait till 6800 or should we move on .....

IMO we should have one target @ 6800 and another possibly 7700, this is the range i am looking at. If market is going through possible pull back then it become essential to keep ready cash always to BUY when panic sellers come into play.
So I would suggest to accumulate around Support levels by keeping one EYE on the Index and the other On Individual counter.

Nitro 7 wrote:We're coming down from 7400.

Anything below 7000 will have serious effects - specially on the retailers.

I am very sure market will not go below 7150-7000 range i mentioned.

I too hope Nitro, but reality always differ, so are we ready if it drops, are you going sell thinking that tomorrow the world will end. Or Mentally tougher to hold them
If you have bought good shares in companies that will have solid future earnings, then one need not worry too much on current phase of correction that is taking place.

Anyway there are 2 approaches for Traders and Investors

The Pivot For Thursday

PP - 7202
S2-7140
S3-7125

Anything above 7202 means good for us short term change in the direction.

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The Key Candle to watch is THURSDAY, will it show Reversal Candle that will indicate a possible reversal or continuation the downward trend.
IMO the Last Support around 7145 should hold if we are anticipating a 7400 Test. A bouncing off around 7145 will give renewed enthusiasm for the Market participants.... to Re-enter.

Hoping this would not be a Bull Trap

hellow..


for me the most important factor which deside the path of cse is the " pappers in box " Budjet ... i have seen they bring it to the parliment in a brief case when i was a kid..but this effect even can not be determined by retailers, or small investors. which means even the budget show green HNWI can affect much.even the broker huts

as we have been discussing , there are favourable factos and negative factors which affects drastically to the content.

At this situation where market is having a battle between bull n bear , brokers should play a significant role. its a fact that they earn both at our profits , losses . but if the believe a healthy green market will earn them much .. that gives the pathway to green.
According to the observations on technical ground ASI is beeng testing 7150- 7175 ,, but as shark said there is a technical danger of going back to 6900.. it will happen if ASI starts dropping below the support and will get facilitated by both panic selling + selling of margin .

The govt up to date has created some favourable factors for green mkt , advertising , forums at NY ... like wise.. but for a big investor technically the market is not favourable due to this continous growth .most who bought on jan feb are with profits now. ..
so what i feel is that there is a force going on to make the market more receptive for investment , and it is done by creative downward dip in ASI , so it will facilitate the minds to enter back.
even most of you noticed when the market goes down how ppl collect at low, and how they encourage selling by placing big selling orders.

if the CSE strats collapse , UNP will take the advantage on them .. so i hope that gvt will not let that happen. and even the budget will be favourable for most both poor and rich. only one party cannot be benifited. salary increment will definietly reduce the profits of pvt sector but in the other hand they will be exposed to a population with high buying ability.

As the interest rates are comming down , we thing that cse is the most profitable place.. may be .mostly. but as this is is still the early stage properly planned investments in land , vehicle will be benifited too.. vehicles depend on budget too. cuz ppl will be looking forward to buy more with credit in near future . So if any bankers are present plz share your experience regarding loans ... weather the no of customers requesting loans are getting high continously.

with all these factors i still do believe in CSE as a profitable medium , but the entry point n exit is the most important . for this technical support is favourable. but i hate red .. cuz green means profits to all. if cse performs well all will be benifited


i hope for green , better than ever

Thanks Akalanka, for your views. You have spoken well. I too expect a GREEN around the 88.6% 7175 could see 7145 which was the LOW support which should hold in my opinion due to last Price Action around same level.
I feel going LOW will trigger some more selling by Retailers thinking the Trend has turned bearish.
So who ever playing with current game will not want too much panic to stir as this will have a bearing on the overall trend perception. So a reversal in the next 2 days would be welcome.
So before we speak 6800 lets see a near-term 7050 support on ASI would come in to play or will it be a distant memory

Market was due for some type of pull back or minor correction. So it is having now. It is good for the healthy market. Next couple of days are very crucial for the market. 7100 is the key point. This is where we will see some sort of reversal. Still noting will happen to market. When overheated stocks fall market will become more attractive. So it is time to build out portfolio for next wave. Nothing to worry much. Individual sectors/ stocks will shine. Where do we find sectors, stocks trading below the P/E ratio of 7? Then there are stocks trading below the P/E ratio of 13 which are going to have growth. Their forward P/E ratio will come down further once we see attractive results in the coming quarters. When an industry becomes favourable stocks in that industry will rocket. What about turnaround companies? Mid, Short and long term players have all types of stocks to select in the CSE now. In addition we can expect some concessions to some industries from the budget. We don’t get major uptrend all the time. If we miss some mega trend from some stocks sometimes we might not get it again. Some opportunity will be life time opportunity. Good luck!

Our biggest problem is we do not give due place to market forces
I do not say  we should follow  classical theory of Adom Smith

Higher authorities try to control or manipulate statistics for political and personal benefit

Economic and technical analysis predictions are based on rational behavior of economic man. No economic man at present.

economic man is killed by  by authorities  who control  SL Economy. Now no place  at all for market forces

Under present environment no one can predict  future Economic behavior

Even under  smoothly functioning social market economy there are limitations for technical and economic analysis predictions

RPPA wrote:

NC wrote:

SHARK aka TAH wrote:[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]

Target Retracement @88.6% Lets see how this will progress from now onwards

I'm more towards on 7000 - 6800. Bcz look at the daily red bar, its size getting bigger and its lowest price and closing price almost same.
Sometimes, tomorrow will be green, if it not break todays lowest level and this week could retest the resistance of 7200...
Just hope..

Re: Technical Analytics & Charts
Post by SHARK aka TAH Yesterday at 6:09 pm


Post by SHARK aka TAH
-
6800 would be very good indeed. When I first said in the forum, some new members took it negatively and opened a thread asking 6800. If we fear the market then we are not going to make much out of this. The market can ping pong probably till elections are over. Just sharing my thoughts. Let's see how Thursday n Friday will fair.

NC & SHARK

As far as i know technical analysts do their forecasts based on past data & trends. And the above predictions on ASI to 7000 & 68000 (may happen as both of u said) are also based on such analysis. Correct me if i am wrong.

NC SAID THIS TOO-Sometimes, tomorrow will be green, if it not break todays lowest level and this week could retest the resistance of 7200...
Just hope..

SHARK-]Let's see how Thursday n Friday will fair.

This is what i feel

What i feel is just a based graphical & technical analysis only decisions should not be taken.The environmental & economic factors also should be considered.
So please check the in the past ASI with Interest rate fluctuations & how it has behaved too as one key factor. And we definitely know there is a negative correlation (when interest rate goes up market comes down & vice versa) between those two.

When considering the current context there is no current negative impact in interest rate to the market for it to be come down for as 6,800 & 7,000. For me this is a temporary setback. which will come to positivity soon especially after the uncertainty of budget has cleared.

Plus we need to look at the market liquidity which is in actual terms around 300Bn which belongs in total to the finance sector kept short term with CBSL (OMO transactions). And as per yesterday the Market excess is Rs.14Bn. So there is no bubble as such.

There is no problems with inflation too. it is around 3.5% year on year.

Therefor i feel the market will bounce back within next 2 days.

Thank you.[/quote]

Yaaluwane okama thamai mamath kiyane kata kadenakan.

RPPA wrote:

RPPA wrote:

NC wrote:

SHARK aka TAH wrote:[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]

Target Retracement @88.6% Lets see how this will progress from now onwards

I'm more towards on 7000 - 6800. Bcz look at the daily red bar, its size getting bigger and its lowest price and closing price almost same.
Sometimes, tomorrow will be green, if it not break todays lowest level and this week could retest the resistance of 7200...
Just hope..

Re: Technical Analytics & Charts
Post by SHARK aka TAH Yesterday at 6:09 pm

Post by SHARK aka TAH
-
6800 would be very good indeed. When I first said in the forum, some new members took it negatively and opened a thread asking 6800. If we fear the market then we are not going to make much out of this. The market can ping pong probably till elections are over. Just sharing my thoughts. Let's see how Thursday n Friday will fair.

NC & SHARK

As far as i know technical analysts do their forecasts based on past data & trends. And the above predictions on ASI to 7000 & 68000 (may happen as both of u said) are also based on such analysis. Correct me if i am wrong.

NC SAID THIS TOO-Sometimes, tomorrow will be green, if it not break todays lowest level and this week could retest the resistance of 7200...
Just hope..

SHARK-]Let's see how Thursday n Friday will fair.

This is what i feel

What i feel is just a based graphical & technical analysis only decisions should not be taken.The environmental & economic factors also should be considered.
So please check the in the past ASI with Interest rate fluctuations & how it has behaved too as one key factor. And we definitely know there is a negative correlation (when interest rate goes up market comes down & vice versa) between those two.

When considering the current context there is no current negative impact in interest rate to the market for it to be come down for as 6,800 & 7,000. For me this is a temporary setback. which will come to positivity soon especially after the uncertainty of budget has cleared.

Plus we need to look at the market liquidity which is in actual terms around 300Bn which belongs in total to the finance sector kept short term with CBSL (OMO transactions). And as per yesterday the Market excess is Rs.14Bn. So there is no bubble as such.

There is no problems with inflation too. it is around 3.5% year on year.

Therefor i feel the market will bounce back within next 2 days.

Thank you.

[/quote]

Yes. I agree with you. Pullback creates opportunities in a major uptrend. Do not ignore single sector in a major uptrend. Stocks should adjust according to the current uptrend. There are plenty of stagnated and less appreciated sectors and stocks to adjust according to the current major uptrend. I am going to adjust my portfolio to take advantage in special situations in the market time to time while maintaining my credit level under control. Good luck!

VALUEPICK wrote:

RPPA wrote:

RPPA wrote:

NC wrote:

SHARK aka TAH wrote:[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]

Target Retracement @88.6% Lets see how this will progress from now onwards

I'm more towards on 7000 - 6800. Bcz look at the daily red bar, its size getting bigger and its lowest price and closing price almost same.
Sometimes, tomorrow will be green, if it not break todays lowest level and this week could retest the resistance of 7200...
Just hope..

Re: Technical Analytics & Charts
Post by SHARK aka TAH Yesterday at 6:09 pm

Post by SHARK aka TAH
-
6800 would be very good indeed. When I first said in the forum, some new members took it negatively and opened a thread asking 6800. If we fear the market then we are not going to make much out of this. The market can ping pong probably till elections are over. Just sharing my thoughts. Let's see how Thursday n Friday will fair.

NC & SHARK

As far as i know technical analysts do their forecasts based on past data & trends. And the above predictions on ASI to 7000 & 68000 (may happen as both of u said) are also based on such analysis. Correct me if i am wrong.

NC SAID THIS TOO-Sometimes, tomorrow will be green, if it not break todays lowest level and this week could retest the resistance of 7200...
Just hope..

SHARK-]Let's see how Thursday n Friday will fair.

This is what i feel

What i feel is just a based graphical & technical analysis only decisions should not be taken.The environmental & economic factors also should be considered.
So please check the in the past ASI with Interest rate fluctuations & how it has behaved too as one key factor. And we definitely know there is a negative correlation (when interest rate goes up market comes down & vice versa) between those two.

When considering the current context there is no current negative impact in interest rate to the market for it to be come down for as 6,800 & 7,000. For me this is a temporary setback. which will come to positivity soon especially after the uncertainty of budget has cleared.

Plus we need to look at the market liquidity which is in actual terms around 300Bn which belongs in total to the finance sector kept short term with CBSL (OMO transactions). And as per yesterday the Market excess is Rs.14Bn. So there is no bubble as such.

There is no problems with inflation too. it is around 3.5% year on year.

Therefor i feel the market will bounce back within next 2 days.

Thank you.

Yes. I agree with you. Pullback creates opportunities in a major uptrend. Do not ignore single sector in a major uptrend. Stocks should adjust according to the current uptrend. There are plenty of stagnated and less appreciated sectors and stocks to adjust according to the current major uptrend. I am going to adjust my portfolio to take advantage in special situations in the market time to time while maintaining my credit level under control. Good luck![/quote]


Yaaluwane okama thamai mamath kiyane kata kadenakan.

Wowww 88.6% another positive candle on the Retracement, will this continue tomorrow and for a change will this Friday be a GREEN, defa because Mr. President will be presenting the Budget on 1st Reading

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SHARK aka TAH wrote:Wowww 88.6% another positive candle on the Retracement, will this continue tomorrow and for a change will this Friday be a GREEN, defa because Mr. President will be presenting the Budget on 1st Reading

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Shark is positive on the outlook.

I will be concern only if 7140 Support is broken then a possible 100+ lose towards 7050

This is another Chart on ASPI

There is so many ways one could look a Chart.

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SHARK aka TAH wrote:I will be concern only if 7140 Support is broken then a possible 100+ lose towards 7050

There is no such reason for such a slide. For that to happen JKH also has to play a big negative role. If seams BLACKROCK has started buying in to it now.But Personally JKH @ 250/- is bit too high for me.

What i like to see is JKH to fluctuate between 250-265 rather than big depreciation or appreciation (say 300). If it goes to 300/- it will crash land to 250/- in 7 days then the whole market will crash. That i don't want to see. If so we have to make our decisions accordingly.

Currently things are stable. So we will see some positivity at least till 31/12/2014 with some fluctuations.

SHARK aka TAH wrote:This is another Chart on ASPI

There is so many ways one could look a Chart.

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I like this one... Hence, ASI is to start its 5th impulsive move, more noises could be expected...

My 1st Target 20.70 on Mini Symmetrical Triangle, Target is derived 18.80-20Rs ST Pattern on a Near Term B/O @19.50 + 1.2 = 20.70 (18.80-20=1.2) This 20.70 is inline with Mid Term Target or B/O point towards 23+Rs (161.8%) for the Deep Crab Pattern Completion.

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Good Luck