Technical Analytics & Charts (2)

Mr Shark - Thank you for your prediction on Lion. At RS 560 - is it a sell or hold?

Long Term HOLD - CTC NEST CINV Remember I told We can classify as the next GEM.

CTC - held Rs 1100 well (the rather big sell that happened was also handled well with price reaching Rs 1100 in a moment).

So 1200-1250 initial target and then 1400-1600 gets opened? I'm looking at Fib levels and that can happen. What do you say Mr Shark?

I would like to change my topic from a strong caps to somewhat Speculative Counter that too can give some decent profit on the coming periods.

So i had a look at PCH.N and found intersting 2 signals based on Technical Indicators that is worth having look at it.

Anybody noticed it what i noticed on PCH.N

Well if not so, please look at it carefully and share your comments.

To begin with i am seeing concerted accumulation on this share is visible. Have noticed it. There seem to be no Panic selling RUSH where as expectations on BUYERS side that the counter will start a RUN in near future.

However to be more spicy on the counter i am not discounting further 20c drops to add a twist to the play.

Any1 on board with me.

Post your Targets if so wish And i will share mine soon
Playing with a small quantity though.

The chart will follow later on ....   

BUY PCH @40c/30c or 20c

The Drop i was talking 20c = CMP 40c --->20c

Take a look at the MACD and BUY @ 20c

This is a common and fairly reliable signal on REVERSALs

Mr Shark,

Can I point out two things pl?

Is it ok to try to predict such a volatile and 'managed' counter as PCH?

I noted somewhere a prominent broker firm had advised to sell CTC as it's potential is running out due to number of reasons.

PCH i hold some qty for Speculative sake.

There must be reasons why Dr S & another Share Holder in Top 2 Positions in Top20 list.

Whilst Doctor took a stake in AINV.

The other 2 companies were pushed from LOW and appreciated on some speculative reasons.
Why PCH has got stucked in 40c.
But if you look at the Chart a buying will confirm around 50c technically. Whilst if you see MACD positive divergence in the making and it seem though some more collection going on around 40-30c and we may see a RUN on the counter afterwards.with positive news.
Speculative Shares thrive in NEWS so it could be something positive that will mark its RUN in coming periods.

So technically some collection is going on based on MACD Bullish Divergence. So for me BUY BUY and BUY until you see panic selling

PCH First Trxn was 30c x 1Share - wasnt that something
Last couple of days BIG chunks BUYING at 40c
Few Retailers or Individuals selling 30c probably to collect LOW or Retailers fear of further price drops.

Just watching this game ..   

A Bullish MACD Divergence is a strong Trend Reversal Pattern BTW

Divergences

Divergences form when the MACD diverges from the price action of the underlying security. A bullish divergence forms when a security records a lower low and the MACD forms a higher low. The lower low in the security affirms the current downtrend, but the higher low in the MACD shows less downside momentum. Despite less downside momentum, downside momentum is still outpacing upside momentum as long as the MACD remains in negative territory. Slowing downside momentum can sometimes foreshadows a trend reversal or a sizable rally.

The next chart shows Google (GOOG) with a bullish divergence in October-November 2008. First, notice that we are using closing prices to identify the divergence. The MACD's moving averages are based on closing prices and we should consider closing prices in the security as well. Second, notice that there were clear reaction lows (troughs) as both Google and its MACD Line bounced in October and late November. Third, notice that the MACD formed a higher low as Google formed a lower low in November. The MACD turned up with a bullish divergence with a signal line crossover in early December. Google confirmed a reversal with resistance breakout.

Conclusions

The MACD indicator is special because it brings together momentum and trend in one indicator. This unique blend of trend and momentum can be applied to daily, weekly or monthly charts. The standard setting for MACD is the difference between the 12 and 26-period EMAs. Chartists looking for more sensitivity may try a shorter short-term moving average and a longer long-term moving average. MACD(5,35,5) is more sensitive than MACD(12,26,9) and might be better suited for weekly charts. Chartists looking for less sensitivity may consider lengthening the moving averages. A less sensitive MACD will still oscillate above/below zero, but the centerline crossovers and signal line crossovers will be less frequent.

The MACD is not particularly good for identifying overbought and oversold levels. Even though it is possible to identify levels that are historically overbought or oversold, the MACD does not have any upper or lower limits to bind its movement. During sharp moves, the MACD can continue to over-extend beyond its historical extremes.

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Finally, remember that the MACD Line is calculated using the actual difference between two moving averages. This means MACD values are dependent on the price of the underlying security. The MACD values for a $20 stocks may range from -1.5 to 1.5, while the MACD values for a $100 may range from -10 to +10. It is not possible to compare MACD values for a group of securities with varying prices. If you want to compare momentum readings, you should use the Percentage Price Oscillator (PPO), instead of the MACD.
courtesy = chartschool

This is the PCH Chart.
Have a look at it... Any Resemblance to MACD Bullish Divergence

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If you are playing dont risk too much on PCH

Mr Shark, have you done the CTC chart pls?

slstock wrote:

traderathome wrote:LFIN must complete 120-110 before anymove UP

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What is the pattern or tech you are using for the prediction?


anyway bit of logic.

With a dividend of Rs 6.5 will it drop that low atleast until the xd date? 
If it does it mean there will be no major run within before XD right.

Something from the History of HPP on LFIN

By the way i have merged HPP & TA&Charts topics

SHARK wrote:By the way i have merged HPP & TA&Charts topics

Thanks.

The Selling will be there due to different mind sets and strategies of Retailers and big boys.

But when we know where is our ultimate goal the journey becomes that much easy and we will not ponder over small pullbacks or corrections.
I will refuse to call this as a correction on weekly based charts.
Because BULLS are in still in control.

Who Bought LION @582/-

You did:)

No not me, some one bought 1000 and now a 500 order placed.

DIST is making a Negative Divergence on MACD.

So better to wait for safe reentry level around 180-190

If you told Rs 1000 (rather than 110 above Rs 450, i would have bought all LIONs and cubs and everything)   

Anyway Thanks a lot Shark. Otherwise i would have sold at Rs 480-500 (which i bought at approx Rs 420 some time back).

Did any1 notice the LOFC Disclosure on CSE website Today. Thats about a Court Order Preventing the Sale of PCHH shares held by Dynaris Holding which as of 31.12.2013 Financials have closer to 40%

SHARK wrote:Did any1 notice the LOFC Disclosure on CSE website Today. Thats about a Court Order Preventing the Sale of PCHH shares held by Dynaris Holding which as of 31.12.2013 Financials have closer to 40%

Yes. Very Interesting episode going to unfold.

http://books.google.ae/books?id=lQ0OEmzM9tsC&pg=PA179&lpg=PA179&dq=stock+market+plateau&source=bl&ots=nsgmqS5uvj&sig=kE3uQp8W7oUhYd0o5lFkT_5urc8&hl=en&sa=X&ei=zLq_U7eFLYWwPKWDgIgB&ved=0CH8Q6AEwCA#v=onepage&q&f=false

Reading for the Week End Elliot Wave Principal

When it comes to starting a business, entrepreneurs will tell you that one of the hardest tasks is raising money. What’s even more daunting? The dreaded elevator pitch, which can make or break your chances to land an investment. Now imagine having to pitch on national TV in front of millionaire and billionaire investors on ABC’s Shark Tank.

Well Nate Holzapfel managed to do it with flying colors. The co-founder of the Mission Belt Co. appeared on Shark Tank last year and was offered a deal by fashion mogul and branding expert Daymond John. Since landing on Shark Tank, The Mission Belt Co. has helped over 7,0000 families learn to feed themselves while selling one million dollars worth of his belts in under a month. Nate has quickly emerged as one of the best pitches to ever appear on the show. He speaks to businesses and sales forces all over the country and teaches “The Nate State of Mind.” We caught up with the Shark Tank alum about what it takes for the perfect pitch.

1. Know your business. Most people don’t have the details worked out in their heads past the dream phase. You need to need to be the expert or no investor will want to partner with you.

2. Be passionate, not crazy. Investors are easily deterred by a person thats not excited about their product or service. if your not passionate about it, don’t expect anyone else to be.

3. Be yourself. We all admire people who do something new, different and unique. There is no praise for counterfeit. But sometimes we find ourselves mimicking or following the people we want to be like. And while there are some eternal truths — returning calls, being on time and treating people with respect — each one of us has a unique story to tell and a unique way of doing it.

4. From my 10 commandments of selling, Thou shalt hustle. Before you go to pitch, do the work necessary to make investors feel like they need to get involved now rather than later. Creating urgency through results works.

5. Know what you want out of your investor. Smart entrepreneurs know that its all about relationships, money is a tool, like a shovel, a truck or a computer it has its uses, but its not everything. My business partners all bring something unique to the table. Differentiate your self by placing money behind the right partner. The right partner will make or break your business.

6. Don’t get greedy. I hear 3-4 pitches a week, and most of them are asking for too much money for for to little in return. Money isn’t everything, but if your asking for it, you don’t have it, always respect money and what people who have it have done to get it. When you offer a little for a lot you are showing that you don’t respect them or what they have done.

7. Whats in it for them? Another thing I always hear in these pitches is why its good for the person asking for the money. an investor wants to hear whats in it for them. think of it as a sale, would you buy a car from someone that only talked about how great it will be to get their commission check? or would you prefer someone who showed you how to get the car you wanted and didn’t mention what was in it for them. same principal. show them whats in it for them.

8. Posture, don’t beg, thats what dogs do. Instead stand tall, not proud or arrogant, but confident and secure. People want to do business with people that will represent them and their money properly. If you don’t normally wear suit, don’t. Your looking for a partner not a loan. if you want a loan, go to a bank.

9. Don’t over do it. Many people seeking investment dollars tend to over emphasize their successes and strengths, be conservative, its nice to surprise them when they do their due diligence instead of them uncover disappointment.

10. Know your investor. Find out who they are and if they are a good fit for you, remember money is just a tool, you may as well find a great partner to go along with it.

Warren Buffett’s 6 Fundamentals Of Investing
“You don’t need to be an expert in order to achieve satisfactory investment returns.” Buffett goes on to say that you should keep things simple, know your limitations and don’t swing for the fences. He adds: “When promised with quick profits, respond with a quick ‘no’”. (More on this point later on)
“Focus on the future productivity of the asset you are considering.” He says if you aren’t comfortable making a rough estimate of an assets future earnings you should forget it, and move on. This is a reiteration of sorts of his famous quote that you should “never invest in a business you don’t understand.” If you look at Berkshire Hathaway’s holdings you’ll see he puts this theory to work, as just about all of the top holdings have very easy business models to understand.
“If you instead focus on the prospective price change of a contemplated purchase, you are speculating.” This is an important point. Know the difference between speculating and investing. As Buffett says, “half of all coin-flippers will win their first toss; none of those winners has an expectation of profit if they continue…” Buying a stock because you think it will “go up” based on whatever factors you dream up, isn’t much better than walking into a casino and gambling.
“Games are won by players who focus on the playing field – not by those whose eyes are glued to the scoreboard. If you can enjoy Saturdays and Sundays without looking at stock prices, give it a try on weekdays.” This is Warren’s way of reminding us to focus on the long-run. Day to day movements in stock price are inconsequential. We should be focused on investing for the years ahead, not for the next quarter. (Related: How Often Do You Check On Your Investments?)
“Listening to the macro or market predictions of others is a waste of time. Indeed, it is dangerous because it may blur your vision of the facts that are truly important.” In other words: Turn off CNBC and the rest of the 24 hour “news” networks, and don’t listen to the hundreds of talking heads that are out there (on any topic). The networks blow tiny things out of proportion because they have to fill 24 hours worth of programming with something. Likewise, Jim Cramer, Suze Orman or any other “expert” has no clue who you are or what your investing situation is. I’ve never once heard him say “This stock is a buy for Jay, because he’s in his early 30′s with no debt and wants to focus on building an income stream from the dividends in his portfolio” So until he does, I’ll be better off assuming his “buy” picks aren’t directed towards me.
“What the economy, interest rates, or the stock market
might do in the years immediately following – 1987 and 1994 – was of no importance to me in making those investments. I can’t remember what the headlines or pundits were saying at the time.” Speaking of his farm purchase in Nebraska and his second real estate purchase of a property near NYU in New York City, Buffett reminds us to focus on the fundamentals of our investments. Not on whatever macro issues are big news at the moment. He goes on to say that no matter what, corn would grow in Nebraska and students would flock to NYU. It’s easy to get caught up in the “The market is up today because of ____” or “The S&P 500 fell today due to fears over _____”. Regardless of what those headlines are, Visa will still continue to collect fees on the swipe of every credit card and McDonald’s will continue to sell millions of hamburgers. These fundamentals are what’s important. Short-term changes in interest rates, inflation and other factors will have little effect over your investments in the long-term.

Mr Shark, can you pls share the CTC chart. Thanks

geshan.weerakkody wrote:CTC - held Rs 1100 well (the rather big sell that happened was also handled well with price reaching Rs 1100 in a moment).

So 1200-1250 initial target and then 1400-1600 gets opened? I'm looking at Fib levels and that can happen. What do you say Mr Shark?

i am Not sure whether i posted a DIST chart here. Here is what i see for this counter.
As you see we are witnessing a negative MACD divergence.Which means the upward movement is falling apart on thin volume.Probably the reversal has already commenced and we are half way through there.

BUYING is encouraged around 175-180 levels should share price falls gradually.

Look for accumulation for target around 245 then onwards.

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