LCEY and its future prospects

invest77 · 1 LCEY and its future prospects Mon Feb 07, 2011 8:05 pm

invest77

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Dear Friends,

With Some people expecting lankem to reach 600 in the short term can somebody who followed this stock explain whether this is actually possible. Their diversified portfolio presence in different sectors of the market seem to be reaping benefits. Please share your views on LCEY and the price expectation after the financials are out.

Thanks in advance.

madu1977 · 2 Re: LCEY and its future prospects Mon Feb 07, 2011 8:45 pm

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CFLB HOLDING 51.98% OF LCEY,
LCEY HOLDING 48% LANKEM PLANTATION HOLDING > 37.81% KOTA
55.72% SIGIRIYA VILLAGE
28.03% MARA
48.40% LDEV
48.00% LANKEM TEA & RUBBER PLANTATION > 50.01% KOTA
About CFLB some broker firms predict may touch 4 digit very soon.we may guess that may true according to tradibg pattern.so LCEY has a bright future with good performence.

ShareShares · 3 Re: LCEY and its future prospects Tue Feb 08, 2011 12:01 am

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Found in my portfolio as well.
Thanks

seyon · 4 Re: LCEY and its future prospects Tue Feb 08, 2011 5:52 pm

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invest77 wrote:Dear Friends,

With Some people expecting lankem to reach 600 in the short term can somebody who followed this stock explain whether this is actually possible. Their diversified portfolio presence in different sectors of the market seem to be reaping benefits. Please share your views on LCEY and the price expectation after the financials are out.

Thanks in advance.

Hi invest77

LCEY annualized EPS Rs.18.60 and NAV Rs. 92.55, last two quarters would be the most earning contributed from Maha paddy season. Hence there would be possibility the annualized EPS would hit more than Rs.30 and NAV would hit Rs.150 level. Further LANKEM diversifies it business to chemical, agro chemicals, consumer product, leisure, construction, plantation and poultry. Hence there will be more chances to get more value addition in its investment portfolio.

Kotagala Plantations---- 16,709,008--- 144 --- 2,406,097,152.00
Marawila Resorts------- 42,242,161--- 14 --- 591,390,254.00
Lankem Developments-- 3,459,241--- 38 --- 131,451,158.00
SigiryaVillage---------- 5,383,718--- 114 --- 613,743,852.00
CW Mackie------------ 13,581,552--- 90--- 1,222,339,680.00
Total Portfolio-------------------------------------- 4,965,022,096.00

Hence the contributed value for LCEY share from marketable value of investments in listed subsidiary companies is (4,965Mn/24Mn) is Rs.206.. This portfolio i just analyzed before one month... Now the prices are went up.. Hence the portfolio would be in the range of 5.5 Bn ...

Further i would expect share split once it reached to Rs.500... then it would very attractive.. It would be affordable to every one...

Happy Trading

smallville · 5 Re: LCEY and its future prospects Tue Feb 08, 2011 7:45 pm

smallville

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Well..illiquid nature of a stock adds attraction to investors but right after the splits when the counter goes liquid, it decrease the value as every1 can afford it..no celebrity status ;-))
Along with the subdivision, dividends come low, earlier 1.50 dividend may come down to .25/-.50/- which again disturbs investors ;-) as u have to have a number of shares for a dividend. However its the normal value even u used to have so need not to be worried..

However I hope they'd not go for absurd ratios such as 1->10 to bring down the shares to 50-60 range..

I think this analysis is fair enuf for us to judge the potentiality of this.. It has to be the company performance+investment portfolio value (as its a cash in tool) basis the analysis had to be carried out..
A rigorous study on this would be further useful if anyone want to jump in..

LCEY is so attractive, time to time may retract adjusting to market sentiments, so volatility may be seen around 400-500.. u gotta time the market now to grab in a lower end to see ur investment grow.. or u'll be a cry baby over spilt milk.. ;-)

Last edited by smallville on Tue Feb 08, 2011 7:52 pm; edited 1 time in total

econ · 6 Re: LCEY and its future prospects Tue Feb 08, 2011 7:50 pm

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what about results?? is it out??
I think their agri business has an impact from floods..profits may be lower in 4 quarter..

invest77 · 7 Re: LCEY and its future prospects Tue Feb 08, 2011 10:07 pm

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Thanks everybody for some wonderful analysis and projections. I have sold my BFL stake time to collect more LCEY and bit from the lankem family as well. Good Luck

seyon · 8 Re: LCEY and its future prospects Tue Feb 08, 2011 10:07 pm

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econ wrote:what about results?? is it out??
I think their agri business has an impact from floods..profits may be lower in 4 quarter..

Hi econ

The 3rd quarter results will be very much attractive.. that is about to release. I don't think there will be huge impact on 4th quarter results... Since other companies in the group will compensate..

Happy Trading...

seyon · 9 Re: LCEY and its future prospects Wed Apr 27, 2011 8:15 pm

seyon

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seyon wrote:

invest77 wrote:Dear Friends,

With Some people expecting lankem to reach 600 in the short term can somebody who followed this stock explain whether this is actually possible. Their diversified portfolio presence in different sectors of the market seem to be reaping benefits. Please share your views on LCEY and the price expectation after the financials are out.

Thanks in advance.

Hi invest77

LCEY annualized EPS Rs.18.60 and NAV Rs. 92.55, last two quarters would be the most earning contributed from Maha paddy season. Hence there would be possibility the annualized EPS would hit more than Rs.30 and NAV would hit Rs.150 level. Further LANKEM diversifies it business to chemical, agro chemicals, consumer product, leisure, construction, plantation and poultry. Hence there will be more chances to get more value addition in its investment portfolio.

Kotagala Plantations---- 16,709,008--- 144 --- 2,406,097,152.00
Marawila Resorts------- 42,242,161--- 14 --- 591,390,254.00
Lankem Developments-- 3,459,241--- 38 --- 131,451,158.00
SigiryaVillage---------- 5,383,718--- 114 --- 613,743,852.00
CW Mackie------------ 13,581,552--- 90--- 1,222,339,680.00
Total Portfolio-------------------------------------- 4,965,022,096.00

Hence the contributed value for LCEY share from marketable value of investments in listed subsidiary companies is (4,965Mn/24Mn) is Rs.206.. This portfolio i just analyzed before one month... Now the prices are went up.. Hence the portfolio would be in the range of 5.5 Bn ...

Further i would expect share split once it reached to Rs.500... then it would very attractive.. It would be affordable to every one...

Happy Trading

To recap our previous discussion...

Today LCEY started it upward momentum, everyone looking the last quarter results, which is expected to be very attractive...

Look at the quarter performance ( Group)

EPS & NAV

Quarter-----------2010/11---------- 2009/10-------- NAV

1st quarter-------- 6.24------------- 2.70--------- 89.51

2nd quarter --------3.04---------- --(2.52)------- 92.55

3rd Quarter--------23.63------------12.99-------- 110.00

4the Quarter-------???-------------- 6.72--------- ????

Based on the previous trend of EPS, the last quarter EPS of the current year expected to be in the range of Rs.12 ( expecting halve of the 3rd quarter). Therefore expected EPS for the year would be around in the range of 40-45... and trading PE @ 12 ( as per the today price)

Hence still the price is very much attractive us to hold based on current PE...... Since shares is illiquid 24mn shares ( top 20 representing about 20.8Mn as per last quarter).. there would be high possibility the company to go for split....

Happy Trading...