Sri-Lankan rupee outlook

VALUEPICK · 1 Sri-Lankan rupee outlook Sun Apr 10, 2016 10:46 am

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Will it reach around $140 to USD in the coming months?

VALUEPICK · 2 Re: Sri-Lankan rupee outlook Sun Apr 10, 2016 2:00 pm

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Asian currencies from the Malaysian ringgit, Indian rupee to the South Korean won have been rallying in the past month. Just like Sri-Lankan rupee, they were under-performing during last couple of months. It looks like Asian currencies are re-adjusting after sell-off.

Will Sri-Lankan rupee also follow other Asian currencies?

http://www.businesskorea.co.kr/english/news/money/14282-sharpest-rise-asia-south-korean-currency-appreciated-8-vis-%C3%A0-vis-us-dollar-last

South Korean Currency Appreciated by 8% vis-à-vis U.S. Dollar Last Month -

VALUEPICK · 3 Re: Sri-Lankan rupee outlook Sat Apr 30, 2016 12:55 pm

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http://www.reuters.com/article/sri-lanka-markets-idUSL3N17W1VT

Sri Lankan rupee rises after IMF loan announcement

VALUEPICK · 4 Re: Sri-Lankan rupee outlook Sat May 07, 2016 1:57 pm

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As I expected, Rupee is strengthening gradually. It should strengthen further in the coming months. I won’t surprise even if rupee trade around Rs.138 against USD in the second half this year. Rupee dropped artificially as it devalued twice during last couple of years.

We should see more foreign inflow into bonds, government treasury and stocks. In addition, funds from IMF, China and other institutions also should boost foreign reserve.

Gradually, foreigners are returning to some Asian bond and stock markets.

http://www.reuters.com/article/sri-lanka-markets-idUSL3N1821OF

Sri Lankan rupee rises on dollar selling by foreign banks

May 5 The rupee currency of Sri Lanka edged up on Thursday as foreign banks sold dollars to help offshore investors buy government bonds, dealers said, outpacing demand for the U.S. benchmark from importers.

The spot rupee reference rate stood at 145.70, dealers said, as Sri Lanka's central bank sold the spot currency at that rate through state-run banks for a third straight session.

The banking regulator had fixed the spot trading rate at 143.90 per dollar until Monday, dealers said, but officials from the central bank were not available to comment on whether it had indeed intervened in the forex market.

Trading in spots has been intermittent since Jan. 27 and this was the case on Thursday as well as the spot was barely bid, but the slight movement in short-term dollar/rupee forwards indicated the rupee was being traded firmer.

The spot next dollar/rupee forwards were at 146.00/15 per dollar, compared with Wednesday's close of 146.10/20.

The spot next, which basically acts as a proxy for the spot currency, indicates the exchange rate for the day following the conventional spot settlement, meaning it is five days ahead.
Dealers said a loan with the IMF and a likely $1.5-billion bond issue in the short term have helped build confidence in the currency.

The IMF said last week it had reached a staff-level agreement with Sri Lankan authorities for a $1.5 billion, three-year loan to help the island nation avert a balance of payments crisis.
And, on Sunday, a top finance ministry official told Reuters that the government will raise $1.5 billion by selling 10-year sovereign bonds within the next 10-12 days.

Meanwhile, trading was tepid in Sri Lanka's stock market with the main stock index falling 0.09 percent to 6,563.14 as of 0558 GMT on a turnover of 122.8 million rupees ($841,096). ($1 = 146.0000 Sri Lankan rupees) (Reporting by Ranga Sirilal and Shihar Aneez; Editing by Biju Dwarakanath)[url=https://www.facebook.com/sharer/sharer.php?u=http%3A%2F%2Freut.rs%2F1SQj7W7&t=Sri Lankan rupee rises on dollar selling by foreign banks][/url]

worthiness · 5 Re: Sri-Lankan rupee outlook Sat May 07, 2016 4:37 pm

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Receipts of international funds in the forms of loans,grants & FDI either appreciate or slow down currency depreciation. As well, a considerable drop in importing vehicles due to high custom duties & Yen appreciation in past few months made a benefit against draining US$. Slow progress of capital market signs the entrance of incoming investors would be an another cause to keep currency depreciation at bay.

VALUEPICK · 6 Re: Sri-Lankan rupee outlook Sun May 08, 2016 2:25 am

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worthiness wrote:Receipts of international funds in the forms of loans,grants & FDI either appreciate or slow down currency depreciation. As well, a considerable drop in importing vehicles due to high custom duties & Yen appreciation in past few months made a benefit against draining US$. Slow progress of capital market signs the entrance of incoming investors would be an another cause to keep currency depreciation at bay.

Yes I agree with you.

As I said before Rupee should stay strong in 2016/17 provided we don’t see any unforeseen circumstances. My target is around Rs.138-140 against USD. Among global currencies, commodity currencies such as NZD and AUD more vulnerable in the coming years and we can expect bigger fall in them. USD should appreciate against NZD and AUD in the coming years.