EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000)

RJ1010 wrote:

MarketWch wrote:Research more and you will understand.

My research doesn’t point to 10 anytime for the next 2yrs by a long shot. You can see valuations done by others in this thread as well.
Haven’t seen anything from you to suggest a future valuation of 10.

MarketWch wrote:This will come down to 10 level or below for sure

MarketWch wrote:This will come down to 10 level or below for sure

ONTHEMONEY wrote:

ONTHEMONEY wrote:Hi All,
 
Thought of giving my opinion on EXPO with the published results with info I gathered from my research avenues; will start off with the below summary computations EXPOs share valuation based on earnings.
 
SCENARIO I - HIGHLY PESIMISTIC VIEW
 
1H EPS -  3.21
2H EPS -  1.16 (2Q20 EPS DISCOUNTED BY 75% and considered only 25% equally for 3Q and 4Q on a highly conservative model)
 
Total estimated EPS = 4.37
Estimated Market value = 43.7 (Market of 10x Multiplier)
 
SCENARIO II - REALISITIC VIEW
 
1H EPS -  3.21
2H EPS -  2.32 (2Q20 EPS DISCOUNTED BY 50% and considered only 50% equally for 3Q and 4Q on a highly conservative model)
 
Total estimated EPS = 5.53
Estimated Market value = 55.3 (Market of 10x Multiplier)


SCENARIO III - HIGHLY OPTIMISTIC VIEW
 
1H EPS -  3.21
2H EPS -  3.48 (2Q20 EPS DISCOUNTED BY 25% and considered only 75% equally for 3Q and 4Q on a highly conservative model)
 
Total estimated EPS = 6.69
Estimated Market value = 66.9 (Market of 10x Multiplier)
 
Notes (As at 19.11.2020)
Current Market P/E  = 10.28
Sector P/E                  =  46

In depth evaluation of the Financial Performance in 2Q20
How will EXPO maintain/ increase the same Q2 profits; If you analyze the data well, you will understand the reduction in the total reported volumes (SGH info) vs Q1 ( Drop of 35%) while an significant increase in profits. How is this possible in a scenario where comparative C19 impact was lesser compared to Q1? My hypothesis is the stabilization of their general business along with a partial support from PPE transportation which should be less than Q1. Which gives an indication on how they are no more only a company which depends only in PPE transportation. This also revalidates with the use of significantly higher number of charter flights to transport a significantly lesser volume vs Q1 (25% more). My takeout completely will be a continuation of EXPOs strength on their ability and agility to deliver business requirements with a larger number of charter flights will deliver even higher EPS in coming quarters with a help of an increased PPE transportation with the current C19 development vs Q2.          
 
This pushes me to put my expectation towards a SCENARIO I - HIGHLY PESIMISTIC as the minimum to be on the safe side where the price ESTIMATED @ 40/-
 
PS : For all the critics who still wants to check only the NAV, my submission is to check global giants like Amazon, Uber and even most of the established companies who works on a no | minimum Fixed assets policy to have the advantage on flexibility | agility to market volatilities.
 
For those who think of Expo as a COVID stock, I think we need to move away from that assumption. Although Expo benefited from C19, Q2 results clearly indicate they are not dependent on corona. They used COVID to fundamentally change the company. Everyone in the forwarding industry now know of Expo as a logistics powerhouse in Asia. I believe it will remain that way even after COVID ends
 
Not a BUY or SELL Recommendation; Just sharing my views. Please read more about the company in depth and take your positions taking calculated risk as EXPO reached many heights from very low levels.


Good Luck

Hi all,

The above is computed based on DYNAMIC DISCOUNTED model where future earnings were discounted at SIGNIFICANT RATIO. Still, EXPO is valued at Rs 43/- even at the LOWEST/CONSERVATIVE BASIS.

Hence, I draw attention of the BLACK SWAN PPORTUNITY SEEKERS at this juncture on what basis do you justify to BUY @ Rs 9/- where EXPO having a Trailing EPS of Rs 3.18 while the PE stands at 8.52 as of now. 

Hence, I do not WORRY about DAY TRADERS or SWING TRADERS. I analyze the Medium Term EARNING CURVE ONLY. There can be many YouTube heroes and technical chart experts whom would have a different view about a GROWTH STOCK and failed to predict EXPO number of times. 

The following are the KEY FACTORS JUSTIFYING EXPOs GROWTH 

EXPO have a distinctive advantage being ranked at 26th in GLOBAL AIR FRIEGHT INDUSTRY, catering the need of TRANSPORTATION OF C19 vaccine across the GLOBE similar to PPE in coming quarters

EXPO will surely DELIVER SUPER NORMAL RETURNS than any other company in the market recording HISTORICAL HIGHEST EARNINGS AND GROWTH % by end January[3Q2020] and YEARS to come.

EXPO is FOCUSSED on EXPORT ORIENTED BUSINESS which may not HAMPER with any new Government policy as the country now desperately needs EXPORT EARNINGS 

EXPO is a GLOBAL PLAYER marketing its services in many countries where the AVENUES TO GROW is ENDLESS not like catering to LOCAL MARKET ONLY.2


EXPO is highly DIVERSIFIED service offices not only in Sri Lanka which minimize any adverse impact due to any second wave in Sri Lanka. Hence, supply chain disruption risk is minimal.


EXPO forward PE @ 4.7 multiples


EXPO is AGILE to EXPLOIT ANY NEW MARKET OPPORTUNITIES far BETTER than COMPETITION which they have PROVEN 1Q2020 and 2Q2020.


Therefore, EXPO is FUNDAMENTALS wise and future BUSINESS/EARNINGS GROWTH wise displays STRONG OUTLOOK to delivery POCKET FULL OF GAINS in QUARTERS to come


Good Luck
 
Note - This is not a BUY or SELL Recommendation and please do more research about EXPO before making a judgement

samaritan wrote:

ONTHEMONEY wrote:

ONTHEMONEY wrote:Hi All,
 
Thought of giving my opinion on EXPO with the published results with info I gathered from my research avenues; will start off with the below summary computations EXPOs share valuation based on earnings.
 
SCENARIO I - HIGHLY PESIMISTIC VIEW
 
1H EPS -  3.21
2H EPS -  1.16 (2Q20 EPS DISCOUNTED BY 75% and considered only 25% equally for 3Q and 4Q on a highly conservative model)
 
Total estimated EPS = 4.37
Estimated Market value = 43.7 (Market of 10x Multiplier)
 
SCENARIO II - REALISITIC VIEW
 
1H EPS -  3.21
2H EPS -  2.32 (2Q20 EPS DISCOUNTED BY 50% and considered only 50% equally for 3Q and 4Q on a highly conservative model)
 
Total estimated EPS = 5.53
Estimated Market value = 55.3 (Market of 10x Multiplier)


SCENARIO III - HIGHLY OPTIMISTIC VIEW
 
1H EPS -  3.21
2H EPS -  3.48 (2Q20 EPS DISCOUNTED BY 25% and considered only 75% equally for 3Q and 4Q on a highly conservative model)
 
Total estimated EPS = 6.69
Estimated Market value = 66.9 (Market of 10x Multiplier)
 
Notes (As at 19.11.2020)
Current Market P/E  = 10.28
Sector P/E                  =  46

In depth evaluation of the Financial Performance in 2Q20
How will EXPO maintain/ increase the same Q2 profits; If you analyze the data well, you will understand the reduction in the total reported volumes (SGH info) vs Q1 ( Drop of 35%) while an significant increase in profits. How is this possible in a scenario where comparative C19 impact was lesser compared to Q1? My hypothesis is the stabilization of their general business along with a partial support from PPE transportation which should be less than Q1. Which gives an indication on how they are no more only a company which depends only in PPE transportation. This also revalidates with the use of significantly higher number of charter flights to transport a significantly lesser volume vs Q1 (25% more). My takeout completely will be a continuation of EXPOs strength on their ability and agility to deliver business requirements with a larger number of charter flights will deliver even higher EPS in coming quarters with a help of an increased PPE transportation with the current C19 development vs Q2.          
 
This pushes me to put my expectation towards a SCENARIO I - HIGHLY PESIMISTIC as the minimum to be on the safe side where the price ESTIMATED @ 40/-
 
PS : For all the critics who still wants to check only the NAV, my submission is to check global giants like Amazon, Uber and even most of the established companies who works on a no | minimum Fixed assets policy to have the advantage on flexibility | agility to market volatilities.
 
For those who think of Expo as a COVID stock, I think we need to move away from that assumption. Although Expo benefited from C19, Q2 results clearly indicate they are not dependent on corona. They used COVID to fundamentally change the company. Everyone in the forwarding industry now know of Expo as a logistics powerhouse in Asia. I believe it will remain that way even after COVID ends
 
Not a BUY or SELL Recommendation; Just sharing my views. Please read more about the company in depth and take your positions taking calculated risk as EXPO reached many heights from very low levels.


Good Luck

Hi all,

The above is computed based on DYNAMIC DISCOUNTED model where future earnings were discounted at SIGNIFICANT RATIO. Still, EXPO is valued at Rs 43/- even at the LOWEST/CONSERVATIVE BASIS.

Hence, I draw attention of the BLACK SWAN PPORTUNITY SEEKERS at this juncture on what basis do you justify to BUY @ Rs 9/- where EXPO having a Trailing EPS of Rs 3.18 while the PE stands at 8.52 as of now. 

Hence, I do not WORRY about DAY TRADERS or SWING TRADERS. I analyze the Medium Term EARNING CURVE ONLY. There can be many YouTube heroes and technical chart experts whom would have a different view about a GROWTH STOCK and failed to predict EXPO number of times. 

The following are the KEY FACTORS JUSTIFYING EXPOs GROWTH 

EXPO have a distinctive advantage being ranked at 26th in GLOBAL AIR FRIEGHT INDUSTRY, catering the need of TRANSPORTATION OF C19 vaccine across the GLOBE similar to PPE in coming quarters

EXPO will surely DELIVER SUPER NORMAL RETURNS than any other company in the market recording HISTORICAL HIGHEST EARNINGS AND GROWTH % by end January[3Q2020] and YEARS to come.

EXPO is FOCUSSED on EXPORT ORIENTED BUSINESS which may not HAMPER with any new Government policy as the country now desperately needs EXPORT EARNINGS 

EXPO is a GLOBAL PLAYER marketing its services in many countries where the AVENUES TO GROW is ENDLESS not like catering to LOCAL MARKET ONLY.2


EXPO is highly DIVERSIFIED service offices not only in Sri Lanka which minimize any adverse impact due to any second wave in Sri Lanka. Hence, supply chain disruption risk is minimal.


EXPO forward PE @ 4.7 multiples


EXPO is AGILE to EXPLOIT ANY NEW MARKET OPPORTUNITIES far BETTER than COMPETITION which they have PROVEN 1Q2020 and 2Q2020.


Therefore, EXPO is FUNDAMENTALS wise and future BUSINESS/EARNINGS GROWTH wise displays STRONG OUTLOOK to delivery POCKET FULL OF GAINS in QUARTERS to come


Good Luck
 
Note - This is not a BUY or SELL Recommendation and please do more research about EXPO before making a judgement

Thumbs up for a Merit worthy analysis by 'ONTHEMONEY'

THUWA wrote:

samaritan wrote:

ONTHEMONEY wrote:

ONTHEMONEY wrote:Hi All,
 
Thought of giving my opinion on EXPO with the published results with info I gathered from my research avenues; will start off with the below summary computations EXPOs share valuation based on earnings.
 
SCENARIO I - HIGHLY PESIMISTIC VIEW
 
1H EPS -  3.21
2H EPS -  1.16 (2Q20 EPS DISCOUNTED BY 75% and considered only 25% equally for 3Q and 4Q on a highly conservative model)
 
Total estimated EPS = 4.37
Estimated Market value = 43.7 (Market of 10x Multiplier)
 
SCENARIO II - REALISITIC VIEW
 
1H EPS -  3.21
2H EPS -  2.32 (2Q20 EPS DISCOUNTED BY 50% and considered only 50% equally for 3Q and 4Q on a highly conservative model)
 
Total estimated EPS = 5.53
Estimated Market value = 55.3 (Market of 10x Multiplier)


SCENARIO III - HIGHLY OPTIMISTIC VIEW
 
1H EPS -  3.21
2H EPS -  3.48 (2Q20 EPS DISCOUNTED BY 25% and considered only 75% equally for 3Q and 4Q on a highly conservative model)
 
Total estimated EPS = 6.69
Estimated Market value = 66.9 (Market of 10x Multiplier)
 
Notes (As at 19.11.2020)
Current Market P/E  = 10.28
Sector P/E                  =  46

In depth evaluation of the Financial Performance in 2Q20
How will EXPO maintain/ increase the same Q2 profits; If you analyze the data well, you will understand the reduction in the total reported volumes (SGH info) vs Q1 ( Drop of 35%) while an significant increase in profits. How is this possible in a scenario where comparative C19 impact was lesser compared to Q1? My hypothesis is the stabilization of their general business along with a partial support from PPE transportation which should be less than Q1. Which gives an indication on how they are no more only a company which depends only in PPE transportation. This also revalidates with the use of significantly higher number of charter flights to transport a significantly lesser volume vs Q1 (25% more). My takeout completely will be a continuation of EXPOs strength on their ability and agility to deliver business requirements with a larger number of charter flights will deliver even higher EPS in coming quarters with a help of an increased PPE transportation with the current C19 development vs Q2.          
 
This pushes me to put my expectation towards a SCENARIO I - HIGHLY PESIMISTIC as the minimum to be on the safe side where the price ESTIMATED @ 40/-
 
PS : For all the critics who still wants to check only the NAV, my submission is to check global giants like Amazon, Uber and even most of the established companies who works on a no | minimum Fixed assets policy to have the advantage on flexibility | agility to market volatilities.
 
For those who think of Expo as a COVID stock, I think we need to move away from that assumption. Although Expo benefited from C19, Q2 results clearly indicate they are not dependent on corona. They used COVID to fundamentally change the company. Everyone in the forwarding industry now know of Expo as a logistics powerhouse in Asia. I believe it will remain that way even after COVID ends
 
Not a BUY or SELL Recommendation; Just sharing my views. Please read more about the company in depth and take your positions taking calculated risk as EXPO reached many heights from very low levels.


Good Luck

Hi all,

The above is computed based on DYNAMIC DISCOUNTED model where future earnings were discounted at SIGNIFICANT RATIO. Still, EXPO is valued at Rs 43/- even at the LOWEST/CONSERVATIVE BASIS.

Hence, I draw attention of the BLACK SWAN PPORTUNITY SEEKERS at this juncture on what basis do you justify to BUY @ Rs 9/- where EXPO having a Trailing EPS of Rs 3.18 while the PE stands at 8.52 as of now. 

Hence, I do not WORRY about DAY TRADERS or SWING TRADERS. I analyze the Medium Term EARNING CURVE ONLY. There can be many YouTube heroes and technical chart experts whom would have a different view about a GROWTH STOCK and failed to predict EXPO number of times. 

The following are the KEY FACTORS JUSTIFYING EXPOs GROWTH 

EXPO have a distinctive advantage being ranked at 26th in GLOBAL AIR FRIEGHT INDUSTRY, catering the need of TRANSPORTATION OF C19 vaccine across the GLOBE similar to PPE in coming quarters

EXPO will surely DELIVER SUPER NORMAL RETURNS than any other company in the market recording HISTORICAL HIGHEST EARNINGS AND GROWTH % by end January[3Q2020] and YEARS to come.

EXPO is FOCUSSED on EXPORT ORIENTED BUSINESS which may not HAMPER with any new Government policy as the country now desperately needs EXPORT EARNINGS 

EXPO is a GLOBAL PLAYER marketing its services in many countries where the AVENUES TO GROW is ENDLESS not like catering to LOCAL MARKET ONLY.2


EXPO is highly DIVERSIFIED service offices not only in Sri Lanka which minimize any adverse impact due to any second wave in Sri Lanka. Hence, supply chain disruption risk is minimal.


EXPO forward PE @ 4.7 multiples


EXPO is AGILE to EXPLOIT ANY NEW MARKET OPPORTUNITIES far BETTER than COMPETITION which they have PROVEN 1Q2020 and 2Q2020.


Therefore, EXPO is FUNDAMENTALS wise and future BUSINESS/EARNINGS GROWTH wise displays STRONG OUTLOOK to delivery POCKET FULL OF GAINS in QUARTERS to come


Good Luck
 
Note - This is not a BUY or SELL Recommendation and please do more research about EXPO before making a judgement

Thumbs up for a Merit worthy analysis by 'ONTHEMONEY'

Samaritan said is said , If Kipling liked that post then that is double time confirmed

samaritan wrote:

THUWA wrote:

samaritan wrote:

ONTHEMONEY wrote:

ONTHEMONEY wrote:Hi All,
 
Thought of giving my opinion on EXPO with the published results with info I gathered from my research avenues; will start off with the below summary computations EXPOs share valuation based on earnings.
 
SCENARIO I - HIGHLY PESIMISTIC VIEW
 
1H EPS -  3.21
2H EPS -  1.16 (2Q20 EPS DISCOUNTED BY 75% and considered only 25% equally for 3Q and 4Q on a highly conservative model)
 
Total estimated EPS = 4.37
Estimated Market value = 43.7 (Market of 10x Multiplier)
 
SCENARIO II - REALISITIC VIEW
 
1H EPS -  3.21
2H EPS -  2.32 (2Q20 EPS DISCOUNTED BY 50% and considered only 50% equally for 3Q and 4Q on a highly conservative model)
 
Total estimated EPS = 5.53
Estimated Market value = 55.3 (Market of 10x Multiplier)


SCENARIO III - HIGHLY OPTIMISTIC VIEW
 
1H EPS -  3.21
2H EPS -  3.48 (2Q20 EPS DISCOUNTED BY 25% and considered only 75% equally for 3Q and 4Q on a highly conservative model)
 
Total estimated EPS = 6.69
Estimated Market value = 66.9 (Market of 10x Multiplier)
 
Notes (As at 19.11.2020)
Current Market P/E  = 10.28
Sector P/E                  =  46

In depth evaluation of the Financial Performance in 2Q20
How will EXPO maintain/ increase the same Q2 profits; If you analyze the data well, you will understand the reduction in the total reported volumes (SGH info) vs Q1 ( Drop of 35%) while an significant increase in profits. How is this possible in a scenario where comparative C19 impact was lesser compared to Q1? My hypothesis is the stabilization of their general business along with a partial support from PPE transportation which should be less than Q1. Which gives an indication on how they are no more only a company which depends only in PPE transportation. This also revalidates with the use of significantly higher number of charter flights to transport a significantly lesser volume vs Q1 (25% more). My takeout completely will be a continuation of EXPOs strength on their ability and agility to deliver business requirements with a larger number of charter flights will deliver even higher EPS in coming quarters with a help of an increased PPE transportation with the current C19 development vs Q2.          
 
This pushes me to put my expectation towards a SCENARIO I - HIGHLY PESIMISTIC as the minimum to be on the safe side where the price ESTIMATED @ 40/-
 
PS : For all the critics who still wants to check only the NAV, my submission is to check global giants like Amazon, Uber and even most of the established companies who works on a no | minimum Fixed assets policy to have the advantage on flexibility | agility to market volatilities.
 
For those who think of Expo as a COVID stock, I think we need to move away from that assumption. Although Expo benefited from C19, Q2 results clearly indicate they are not dependent on corona. They used COVID to fundamentally change the company. Everyone in the forwarding industry now know of Expo as a logistics powerhouse in Asia. I believe it will remain that way even after COVID ends
 
Not a BUY or SELL Recommendation; Just sharing my views. Please read more about the company in depth and take your positions taking calculated risk as EXPO reached many heights from very low levels.


Good Luck

Hi all,

The above is computed based on DYNAMIC DISCOUNTED model where future earnings were discounted at SIGNIFICANT RATIO. Still, EXPO is valued at Rs 43/- even at the LOWEST/CONSERVATIVE BASIS.

Hence, I draw attention of the BLACK SWAN PPORTUNITY SEEKERS at this juncture on what basis do you justify to BUY @ Rs 9/- where EXPO having a Trailing EPS of Rs 3.18 while the PE stands at 8.52 as of now. 

Hence, I do not WORRY about DAY TRADERS or SWING TRADERS. I analyze the Medium Term EARNING CURVE ONLY. There can be many YouTube heroes and technical chart experts whom would have a different view about a GROWTH STOCK and failed to predict EXPO number of times. 

The following are the KEY FACTORS JUSTIFYING EXPOs GROWTH 

EXPO have a distinctive advantage being ranked at 26th in GLOBAL AIR FRIEGHT INDUSTRY, catering the need of TRANSPORTATION OF C19 vaccine across the GLOBE similar to PPE in coming quarters

EXPO will surely DELIVER SUPER NORMAL RETURNS than any other company in the market recording HISTORICAL HIGHEST EARNINGS AND GROWTH % by end January[3Q2020] and YEARS to come.

EXPO is FOCUSSED on EXPORT ORIENTED BUSINESS which may not HAMPER with any new Government policy as the country now desperately needs EXPORT EARNINGS 

EXPO is a GLOBAL PLAYER marketing its services in many countries where the AVENUES TO GROW is ENDLESS not like catering to LOCAL MARKET ONLY.2


EXPO is highly DIVERSIFIED service offices not only in Sri Lanka which minimize any adverse impact due to any second wave in Sri Lanka. Hence, supply chain disruption risk is minimal.


EXPO forward PE @ 4.7 multiples


EXPO is AGILE to EXPLOIT ANY NEW MARKET OPPORTUNITIES far BETTER than COMPETITION which they have PROVEN 1Q2020 and 2Q2020.


Therefore, EXPO is FUNDAMENTALS wise and future BUSINESS/EARNINGS GROWTH wise displays STRONG OUTLOOK to delivery POCKET FULL OF GAINS in QUARTERS to come


Good Luck
 
Note - This is not a BUY or SELL Recommendation and please do more research about EXPO before making a judgement

Thumbs up for a Merit worthy analysis by 'ONTHEMONEY'

Samaritan said is said , If Kipling liked that post then that is double time confirmed

Thuwa,

I am a MINO (Moderator In Name Only) in this forum and don't have powers or privileges like what you think. I can only see a Mafia joining hands to mark green & red lines to posts to achieve their own objectives. I wonder how many have the basic intelligence to see through what's happening here. 

I only believe that any claim should be substantiated with facts or acceptable assumptions/assessments or forecasts.

jaya wrote:"Latest trading in Expolanka has been led by high net worth individuals such as Nimal Perera, Ajith Devasurendra etc, retailers and a few local companies such as Galle Face Hotel Group, Hi Line Group, and Almas Group etc. There has not been much buying from unit trusts, and foreigners didn’t purchase this share."
Ref, Sunday times.

Value Pick wrote:Probably the last few days that the EXPO is trading below Rs30s. Another 10.0mn - 20.0mn volume will take EXPO towards Rs28++ levels. Sell others buy EXPO you will not regret definitely for that decision.

DamithAsian wrote:Many shares have good potentials to climb high. No wrong with the stocks. Feeling of dullness of investors as well as whole country is the reason. Have to awake up the market with some strategies. Didn't see any direct attention towards investors even though exemptions and all there for businesses. Reducing CSE transaction fee, levy in line with upper countries may motivate market. Saw some investors propose direct inspiration for Share market by reducing cost of transaction. If government do some fairness to the transaction cost all investors may be benefited. And also it may boost operation of stock trading opportunities. See how much cost incurred in our transactions without real support or service.

Mick wrote:

Value Pick wrote:Probably the last few days that the EXPO is trading below Rs30s. Another 10.0mn - 20.0mn volume will take EXPO towards Rs28++ levels. Sell others buy EXPO you will not regret definitely for that decision.

 What's the reason to go high in coming days? Expo reached the optimum level and stuck in 26+ now and it will go down after XD date.

Value Pick wrote:

Mick wrote:

Value Pick wrote:Probably the last few days that the EXPO is trading below Rs30s. Another 10.0mn - 20.0mn volume will take EXPO towards Rs28++ levels. Sell others buy EXPO you will not regret definitely for that decision.

 What's the reason to go high in coming days? Expo reached the optimum level and stuck in 26+ now and it will go down after XD date.

That’s what you know. If you do your home work well you will see the hidden value of EXPO...

Mick wrote:

Value Pick wrote:

Mick wrote:

Value Pick wrote:Probably the last few days that the EXPO is trading below Rs30s. Another 10.0mn - 20.0mn volume will take EXPO towards Rs28++ levels. Sell others buy EXPO you will not regret definitely for that decision.

 What's the reason to go high in coming days? Expo reached the optimum level and stuck in 26+ now and it will go down after XD date.

That’s what you know. If you do your home work well you will see the hidden value of EXPO...

Thank you, it's not me the ground situation in CSE today, BTW, i really grateful if you could enlighten us why it should go high as this will help many of us in this forum?

RJ1010 wrote:

Mick wrote:

Value Pick wrote:

Mick wrote:

Value Pick wrote:Probably the last few days that the EXPO is trading below Rs30s. Another 10.0mn - 20.0mn volume will take EXPO towards Rs28++ levels. Sell others buy EXPO you will not regret definitely for that decision.

 What's the reason to go high in coming days? Expo reached the optimum level and stuck in 26+ now and it will go down after XD date.

That’s what you know. If you do your home work well you will see the hidden value of EXPO...

Thank you, it's not me the ground situation in CSE today, BTW, i really grateful if you could enlighten us why it should go high as this will help many of us in this forum?

Read this entire thread. There are many reasons already mentioned.

ONTHEMONEY wrote:

ONTHEMONEY wrote:Hi All,
 
Thought of giving my opinion on EXPO with the published results with info I gathered from my research avenues; will start off with the below summary computations EXPOs share valuation based on earnings.
 
SCENARIO I - HIGHLY PESIMISTIC VIEW
 
1H EPS -  3.21
2H EPS -  1.16 (2Q20 EPS DISCOUNTED BY 75% and considered only 25% equally for 3Q and 4Q on a highly conservative model)
 
Total estimated EPS = 4.37
Estimated Market value = 43.7 (Market of 10x Multiplier)
 
SCENARIO II - REALISITIC VIEW
 
1H EPS -  3.21
2H EPS -  2.32 (2Q20 EPS DISCOUNTED BY 50% and considered only 50% equally for 3Q and 4Q on a highly conservative model)
 
Total estimated EPS = 5.53
Estimated Market value = 55.3 (Market of 10x Multiplier)


SCENARIO III - HIGHLY OPTIMISTIC VIEW
 
1H EPS -  3.21
2H EPS -  3.48 (2Q20 EPS DISCOUNTED BY 25% and considered only 75% equally for 3Q and 4Q on a highly conservative model)
 
Total estimated EPS = 6.69
Estimated Market value = 66.9 (Market of 10x Multiplier)
 
Notes (As at 19.11.2020)
Current Market P/E  = 10.28
Sector P/E                  =  46

In depth evaluation of the Financial Performance in 2Q20
How will EXPO maintain/ increase the same Q2 profits; If you analyze the data well, you will understand the reduction in the total reported volumes (SGH info) vs Q1 ( Drop of 35%) while an significant increase in profits. How is this possible in a scenario where comparative C19 impact was lesser compared to Q1? My hypothesis is the stabilization of their general business along with a partial support from PPE transportation which should be less than Q1. Which gives an indication on how they are no more only a company which depends only in PPE transportation. This also revalidates with the use of significantly higher number of charter flights to transport a significantly lesser volume vs Q1 (25% more). My takeout completely will be a continuation of EXPOs strength on their ability and agility to deliver business requirements with a larger number of charter flights will deliver even higher EPS in coming quarters with a help of an increased PPE transportation with the current C19 development vs Q2.          
 
This pushes me to put my expectation towards a SCENARIO I - HIGHLY PESIMISTIC as the minimum to be on the safe side where the price ESTIMATED @ 40/-
 
PS : For all the critics who still wants to check only the NAV, my submission is to check global giants like Amazon, Uber and even most of the established companies who works on a no | minimum Fixed assets policy to have the advantage on flexibility | agility to market volatilities.
 
For those who think of Expo as a COVID stock, I think we need to move away from that assumption. Although Expo benefited from C19, Q2 results clearly indicate they are not dependent on corona. They used COVID to fundamentally change the company. Everyone in the forwarding industry now know of Expo as a logistics powerhouse in Asia. I believe it will remain that way even after COVID ends
 
Not a BUY or SELL Recommendation; Just sharing my views. Please read more about the company in depth and take your positions taking calculated risk as EXPO reached many heights from very low levels.


Good Luck

Hi all,

The above is computed based on DYNAMIC DISCOUNTED model where future earnings were discounted at SIGNIFICANT RATIO. Still, EXPO is valued at Rs 43/- even at the LOWEST/CONSERVATIVE BASIS.

Hence, I draw attention of the BLACK SWAN PPORTUNITY SEEKERS at this juncture on what basis do you justify to BUY @ Rs 9/- where EXPO having a Trailing EPS of Rs 3.18 while the PE stands at 8.52 as of now. 

Hence, I do not WORRY about DAY TRADERS or SWING TRADERS. I analyze the Medium Term EARNING CURVE ONLY. There can be many YouTube heroes and technical chart experts whom would have a different view about a GROWTH STOCK and failed to predict EXPO number of times. 

The following are the KEY FACTORS JUSTIFYING EXPOs GROWTH 

EXPO have a distinctive advantage being ranked at 26th in GLOBAL AIR FRIEGHT INDUSTRY, catering the need of TRANSPORTATION OF C19 vaccine across the GLOBE similar to PPE in coming quarters

EXPO will surely DELIVER SUPER NORMAL RETURNS than any other company in the market recording HISTORICAL HIGHEST EARNINGS AND GROWTH % by end January[3Q2020] and YEARS to come.

EXPO is FOCUSSED on EXPORT ORIENTED BUSINESS which may not HAMPER with any new Government policy as the country now desperately needs EXPORT EARNINGS 

EXPO is a GLOBAL PLAYER marketing its services in many countries where the AVENUES TO GROW is ENDLESS not like catering to LOCAL MARKET ONLY.2


EXPO is highly DIVERSIFIED service offices not only in Sri Lanka which minimize any adverse impact due to any second wave in Sri Lanka. Hence, supply chain disruption risk is minimal.


EXPO forward PE @ 4.7 multiples


EXPO is AGILE to EXPLOIT ANY NEW MARKET OPPORTUNITIES far BETTER than COMPETITION which they have PROVEN 1Q2020 and 2Q2020.


Therefore, EXPO is FUNDAMENTALS wise and future BUSINESS/EARNINGS GROWTH wise displays STRONG OUTLOOK to delivery POCKET FULL OF GAINS in QUARTERS to come


Good Luck
 
Note - This is not a BUY or SELL Recommendation and please do more research about EXPO before making a judgement

ONTHEMONEY wrote:Hi all,


Many of the Technical people seems to be indicating SELL calls of EXPO as it appreciated sharply from Rs 18 to Rs 30 within a quick time. 


This could be the primary reason for EXPO dampen the price 


Good Luck

vikey wrote:

ONTHEMONEY wrote:Hi all,


Many of the Technical people seems to be indicating SELL calls of EXPO as it appreciated sharply from Rs 18 to Rs 30 within a quick time. 


This could be the primary reason for EXPO dampen the price 


Good Luck

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