EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000)

Kipling wrote:They are waiting to re-enter @ 9.

@ RajapaksaDON

Miss-Sangeetha wrote:

@ RajapaksaDON

before the dividend announcement also, TKYO was trading above R.66/= after the dividend announcement of Rs.1.50, most of the forum q-expert predicted TKYO'S trading over Rs.75/- like EXPO'S prediction of 30 and 40 by some people after the dividend announcement.

What was the impact on TKYO after the Rs.1.50 dividend announcement? you mean yesterday TKYO was traded@ 62 and today 60.20 to 61 ? What about the TKYO'S trade above 66 before the dividend announcement?

 After the government decision to ban on foreign Investment by Sri Lankans , vehicle imports, luxury items  as well as some groceries imports to spare foreign exchange.

These foreign Investment by Sri Lankans ,vehicle importers. luxury goods and groceries importers are now without no option compel to invest in CSE as short term investment as advised by some of the influential people at central Bank counter when they visit for import permit, 

This is the reason recent surge in share market mostly inflated . Some are satisfied that new fund replacing /absorbing with the foreigners exit from CSE.

What will happen if the government remove the ban on these items? some will argue gov't won't remove the ban at least for two years like tax on tin fish

Elasticity not electricity, applicable until materials elastic limit that is Hooke's Law of elasticity again not electricity.  that is says   
Deformations of an object, the displacement or size of the deformation is directly proportional to the deforming force subject to materials elastic limit.       ,

Miss-Sangeetha wrote:

@ RajapaksaDON

before the dividend announcement also, TKYO was trading above R.66/= after the dividend announcement of Rs.1.50, most of the forum q-expert predicted TKYO'S trading over Rs.75/- like EXPO'S prediction of 30 and 40 by some people after the dividend announcement.

What was the impact on TKYO after the Rs.1.50 dividend announcement? you mean yesterday TKYO was traded@ 62 and today 60.20 to 61 ? What about the TKYO'S trade above 66 before the dividend announcement?

 After the government decision to ban on foreign Investment by Sri Lankans , vehicle imports, luxury items  as well as some groceries imports to spare foreign exchange.

These foreign Investment by Sri Lankans ,vehicle importers. luxury goods and groceries importers are now without no option compel to invest in CSE as short term investment as advised by some of the influential people at central Bank counter when they visit for import permit, 

This is the reason recent surge in share market mostly inflated . Some are satisfied that new fund replacing /absorbing with the foreigners exit from CSE.

What will happen if the government remove the ban on these items? some will argue gov't won't remove the ban at least for two years like tax on tin fish

Elasticity not electricity, applicable until materials elastic limit that is Hooke's Law of elasticity again not electricity.  that is says   
Deformations of an object, the displacement or size of the deformation is directly proportional to the deforming force subject to materials elastic limit.       ,

Kipling wrote:Teller now busy with Huckeem & Baludeen & Hisballa. Planning next move.

ONTHEMONEY wrote:

Miss-Sangeetha wrote:

@ RajapaksaDON

before the dividend announcement also, TKYO was trading above R.66/= after the dividend announcement of Rs.1.50, most of the forum q-expert predicted TKYO'S trading over Rs.75/- like EXPO'S prediction of 30 and 40 by some people after the dividend announcement.

What was the impact on TKYO after the Rs.1.50 dividend announcement? you mean yesterday TKYO was traded@ 62 and today 60.20 to 61 ? What about the TKYO'S trade above 66 before the dividend announcement?

 After the government decision to ban on foreign Investment by Sri Lankans , vehicle imports, luxury items  as well as some groceries imports to spare foreign exchange.

These foreign Investment by Sri Lankans ,vehicle importers. luxury goods and groceries importers are now without no option compel to invest in CSE as short term investment as advised by some of the influential people at central Bank counter when they visit for import permit, 

This is the reason recent surge in share market mostly inflated . Some are satisfied that new fund replacing /absorbing with the foreigners exit from CSE.

What will happen if the government remove the ban on these items? some will argue gov't won't remove the ban at least for two years like tax on tin fish

Elasticity not electricity, applicable until materials elastic limit that is Hooke's Law of elasticity again not electricity.  that is says   
Deformations of an object, the displacement or size of the deformation is directly proportional to the deforming force subject to materials elastic limit.       ,

Hi all,

I respect your view. However, I wish counter with my thoughts about the CSE now.

I am not surprised by any of these Foreign sales. Because ASI recorded many HIGH all this way from Feb 2020 to now with significant foreign sales due to increased country risk. Recently Moody's have further downgraded it and time to come Fitch and other key rating agencies may downgrade by looking at Fiscal side of the economy. Similar types of downgrades recently happened in Pakistan but check what has happened to stocks. Nothing but stocks have unticked. I remember it happened to Bangladesh sometime back and see where Bangladesh is now

The foreign investment is NOT the only factor determining a market direction. The market is still in 10PE multiples which is extremely UNDERVALUED cf. peer markets. Given the BUDGET 2021 sets VERY STRONG SIGNAL for POLICY CONSISTANCY and INCENTIVES for EXPORTS/GROWTH BUSINESS SEGMENTS. Hence, BUDGET has made provisions for BUSINESS to GROW for a 3~4 year horizon. Given these facts, the EARNINGS POTENTIAL FOR COMPANIES technically has to be on the upside which ensure much higher EPS rewarding the investor.  

Foreign investments will revert back to emerging/frontier markets when factors influencing equities in developed markets becomes negative. For example, newly elected president it not in favor of equities and it is expected to impose taxes on US equities. This may shed funds in developed markets and shift them to emerging/frontier markets.


What is important is to know in depth of your invested companies especially future earnings growth potential, what are Capital Investments and strategies implemented to grow business and how emerging opportunities have open doors to outperform competition for companies like EXPO. There are companies having STRONG FUNDAMENTALS together with SUPER NORMAL GROWTH POTENTIAL primarily correlated to C19, US/China Trade War opportunities and Government Led Opportunities which are DIAMONDs.

This view may be not the traditional method of looking at companies

Good Luck

Miss-Sangeetha wrote:

@ RajapaksaDON

before the dividend announcement also, TKYO was trading above R.66/= after the dividend announcement of Rs.1.50, most of the forum q-expert predicted TKYO'S trading over Rs.75/- like EXPO'S prediction of 30 and 40 by some people after the dividend announcement.

What was the impact on TKYO after the Rs.1.50 dividend announcement? you mean yesterday TKYO was traded@ 62 and today 60.20 to 61 ? What about the TKYO'S trade above 66 before the dividend announcement?

 After the government decision to ban on foreign Investment by Sri Lankans , vehicle imports, luxury items  as well as some groceries imports to spare foreign exchange.

These foreign Investment by Sri Lankans ,vehicle importers. luxury goods and groceries importers are now without no option compel to invest in CSE as short term investment as advised by some of the influential people at central Bank counter when they visit for import permit, 

This is the reason recent surge in share market mostly inflated . Some are satisfied that new fund replacing /absorbing with the foreigners exit from CSE.

What will happen if the government remove the ban on these items? some will argue gov't won't remove the ban at least for two years like tax on tin fish

Elasticity not electricity, applicable until materials elastic limit that is Hooke's Law of elasticity again not electricity.  that is says   
Deformations of an object, the displacement or size of the deformation is directly proportional to the deforming force subject to materials elastic limit.       ,

ONTHEMONEY wrote:

Miss-Sangeetha wrote:

@ RajapaksaDON

before the dividend announcement also, TKYO was trading above R.66/= after the dividend announcement of Rs.1.50, most of the forum q-expert predicted TKYO'S trading over Rs.75/- like EXPO'S prediction of 30 and 40 by some people after the dividend announcement.

What was the impact on TKYO after the Rs.1.50 dividend announcement? you mean yesterday TKYO was traded@ 62 and today 60.20 to 61 ? What about the TKYO'S trade above 66 before the dividend announcement?

 After the government decision to ban on foreign Investment by Sri Lankans , vehicle imports, luxury items  as well as some groceries imports to spare foreign exchange.

These foreign Investment by Sri Lankans ,vehicle importers. luxury goods and groceries importers are now without no option compel to invest in CSE as short term investment as advised by some of the influential people at central Bank counter when they visit for import permit, 

This is the reason recent surge in share market mostly inflated . Some are satisfied that new fund replacing /absorbing with the foreigners exit from CSE.

What will happen if the government remove the ban on these items? some will argue gov't won't remove the ban at least for two years like tax on tin fish

Elasticity not electricity, applicable until materials elastic limit that is Hooke's Law of elasticity again not electricity.  that is says   
Deformations of an object, the displacement or size of the deformation is directly proportional to the deforming force subject to materials elastic limit.       ,

Hi all,

I respect your view. However, I wish counter with my thoughts about the CSE now.

I am not surprised by any of these Foreign sales. Because ASI recorded many HIGH all this way from Feb 2020 to now with significant foreign sales due to increased country risk. Recently Moody's have further downgraded it and time to come Fitch and other key rating agencies may downgrade by looking at Fiscal side of the economy. Similar types of downgrades recently happened in Pakistan but check what has happened to stocks. Nothing but stocks have unticked. I remember it happened to Bangladesh sometime back and see where Bangladesh is now

The foreign investment is NOT the only factor determining a market direction. The market is still in 10PE multiples which is extremely UNDERVALUED cf. peer markets. Given the BUDGET 2021 sets VERY STRONG SIGNAL for POLICY CONSISTANCY and INCENTIVES for EXPORTS/GROWTH BUSINESS SEGMENTS. Hence, BUDGET has made provisions for BUSINESS to GROW for a 3~4 year horizon. Given these facts, the EARNINGS POTENTIAL FOR COMPANIES technically has to be on the upside which ensure much higher EPS rewarding the investor.  

Foreign investments will revert back to emerging/frontier markets when factors influencing equities in developed markets becomes negative. For example, newly elected president it not in favor of equities and it is expected to impose taxes on US equities. This may shed funds in developed markets and shift them to emerging/frontier markets.


What is important is to know in depth of your invested companies especially future earnings growth potential, what are Capital Investments and strategies implemented to grow business and how emerging opportunities have open doors to outperform competition for companies like EXPO. There are companies having STRONG FUNDAMENTALS together with SUPER NORMAL GROWTH POTENTIAL primarily correlated to C19, US/China Trade War opportunities and Government Led Opportunities which are DIAMONDs.

This view may be not the traditional method of looking at companies

Good Luc

CSE welcomes progressive Budget 2021 proposals directed at developing the capital market.

ONTHEMONEY wrote:Hi All,
 
Thought of giving my opinion on EXPO with the published results with info I gathered from my research avenues; will start off with the below summary computations EXPOs share valuation based on earnings.
 
SCENARIO I - HIGHLY PESIMISTIC VIEW
 
1H EPS -  3.21
2H EPS -  1.16 (2Q20 EPS DISCOUNTED BY 75% and considered only 25% equally for 3Q and 4Q on a highly conservative model)
 
Total estimated EPS = 4.37
Estimated Market value = 43.7 (Market of 10x Multiplier)
 
SCENARIO II - REALISITIC VIEW
 
1H EPS -  3.21
2H EPS -  2.32 (2Q20 EPS DISCOUNTED BY 50% and considered only 50% equally for 3Q and 4Q on a highly conservative model)
 
Total estimated EPS = 5.53
Estimated Market value = 55.3 (Market of 10x Multiplier)


SCENARIO III - HIGHLY OPTIMISTIC VIEW
 
1H EPS -  3.21
2H EPS -  3.48 (2Q20 EPS DISCOUNTED BY 25% and considered only 75% equally for 3Q and 4Q on a highly conservative model)
 
Total estimated EPS = 6.69
Estimated Market value = 66.9 (Market of 10x Multiplier)
 
Notes (As at 19.11.2020)
Current Market P/E  = 10.28
Sector P/E                  =  46

In depth evaluation of the Financial Performance in 2Q20
How will EXPO maintain/ increase the same Q2 profits; If you analyze the data well, you will understand the reduction in the total reported volumes (SGH info) vs Q1 ( Drop of 35%) while an significant increase in profits. How is this possible in a scenario where comparative C19 impact was lesser compared to Q1? My hypothesis is the stabilization of their general business along with a partial support from PPE transportation which should be less than Q1. Which gives an indication on how they are no more only a company which depends only in PPE transportation. This also revalidates with the use of significantly higher number of charter flights to transport a significantly lesser volume vs Q1 (25% more). My takeout completely will be a continuation of EXPOs strength on their ability and agility to deliver business requirements with a larger number of charter flights will deliver even higher EPS in coming quarters with a help of an increased PPE transportation with the current C19 development vs Q2.          
 
This pushes me to put my expectation towards a SCENARIO I - HIGHLY PESIMISTIC as the minimum to be on the safe side where the price ESTIMATED @ 40/-
 
PS : For all the critics who still wants to check only the NAV, my submission is to check global giants like Amazon, Uber and even most of the established companies who works on a no | minimum Fixed assets policy to have the advantage on flexibility | agility to market volatilities.
 
For those who think of Expo as a COVID stock, I think we need to move away from that assumption. Although Expo benefited from C19, Q2 results clearly indicate they are not dependent on corona. They used COVID to fundamentally change the company. Everyone in the forwarding industry now know of Expo as a logistics powerhouse in Asia. I believe it will remain that way even after COVID ends
 
Not a BUY or SELL Recommendation; Just sharing my views. Please read more about the company in depth and take your positions taking calculated risk as EXPO reached many heights from very low levels.


Good Luck

DamithAsian wrote:https://twitter.com/LSE75837719/status/1329664275032403973?s=08

MaJa wrote:Who thought that when the share was trading at 4 , it would almost  earn 2x of it s share value for the year !
There s no doubt that share is fairly valued / under valued based on current years performance. Only thing we need to assess is sustainability of it s profits for next couple of years.
Once investors get a feel of that , this share will fly.  

MarketWch wrote:This will come down to 10 level or below for sure

MarketWch wrote:Research more and you will understand.

RJ1010 wrote:

MarketWch wrote:Research more and you will understand.

My research doesn’t point to 10 anytime for the next 2yrs by a long shot. You can see valuations done by others in this thread as well.
Haven’t seen anything from you to suggest a future valuation of 10.

MarketWch wrote:This will come down to 10 level or below for sure

MarketWch wrote:This will come down to 10 level or below for sure

ONTHEMONEY wrote:

ONTHEMONEY wrote:Hi All,
 
Thought of giving my opinion on EXPO with the published results with info I gathered from my research avenues; will start off with the below summary computations EXPOs share valuation based on earnings.
 
SCENARIO I - HIGHLY PESIMISTIC VIEW
 
1H EPS -  3.21
2H EPS -  1.16 (2Q20 EPS DISCOUNTED BY 75% and considered only 25% equally for 3Q and 4Q on a highly conservative model)
 
Total estimated EPS = 4.37
Estimated Market value = 43.7 (Market of 10x Multiplier)
 
SCENARIO II - REALISITIC VIEW
 
1H EPS -  3.21
2H EPS -  2.32 (2Q20 EPS DISCOUNTED BY 50% and considered only 50% equally for 3Q and 4Q on a highly conservative model)
 
Total estimated EPS = 5.53
Estimated Market value = 55.3 (Market of 10x Multiplier)


SCENARIO III - HIGHLY OPTIMISTIC VIEW
 
1H EPS -  3.21
2H EPS -  3.48 (2Q20 EPS DISCOUNTED BY 25% and considered only 75% equally for 3Q and 4Q on a highly conservative model)
 
Total estimated EPS = 6.69
Estimated Market value = 66.9 (Market of 10x Multiplier)
 
Notes (As at 19.11.2020)
Current Market P/E  = 10.28
Sector P/E                  =  46

In depth evaluation of the Financial Performance in 2Q20
How will EXPO maintain/ increase the same Q2 profits; If you analyze the data well, you will understand the reduction in the total reported volumes (SGH info) vs Q1 ( Drop of 35%) while an significant increase in profits. How is this possible in a scenario where comparative C19 impact was lesser compared to Q1? My hypothesis is the stabilization of their general business along with a partial support from PPE transportation which should be less than Q1. Which gives an indication on how they are no more only a company which depends only in PPE transportation. This also revalidates with the use of significantly higher number of charter flights to transport a significantly lesser volume vs Q1 (25% more). My takeout completely will be a continuation of EXPOs strength on their ability and agility to deliver business requirements with a larger number of charter flights will deliver even higher EPS in coming quarters with a help of an increased PPE transportation with the current C19 development vs Q2.          
 
This pushes me to put my expectation towards a SCENARIO I - HIGHLY PESIMISTIC as the minimum to be on the safe side where the price ESTIMATED @ 40/-
 
PS : For all the critics who still wants to check only the NAV, my submission is to check global giants like Amazon, Uber and even most of the established companies who works on a no | minimum Fixed assets policy to have the advantage on flexibility | agility to market volatilities.
 
For those who think of Expo as a COVID stock, I think we need to move away from that assumption. Although Expo benefited from C19, Q2 results clearly indicate they are not dependent on corona. They used COVID to fundamentally change the company. Everyone in the forwarding industry now know of Expo as a logistics powerhouse in Asia. I believe it will remain that way even after COVID ends
 
Not a BUY or SELL Recommendation; Just sharing my views. Please read more about the company in depth and take your positions taking calculated risk as EXPO reached many heights from very low levels.


Good Luck

Hi all,

The above is computed based on DYNAMIC DISCOUNTED model where future earnings were discounted at SIGNIFICANT RATIO. Still, EXPO is valued at Rs 43/- even at the LOWEST/CONSERVATIVE BASIS.

Hence, I draw attention of the BLACK SWAN PPORTUNITY SEEKERS at this juncture on what basis do you justify to BUY @ Rs 9/- where EXPO having a Trailing EPS of Rs 3.18 while the PE stands at 8.52 as of now. 

Hence, I do not WORRY about DAY TRADERS or SWING TRADERS. I analyze the Medium Term EARNING CURVE ONLY. There can be many YouTube heroes and technical chart experts whom would have a different view about a GROWTH STOCK and failed to predict EXPO number of times. 

The following are the KEY FACTORS JUSTIFYING EXPOs GROWTH 

EXPO have a distinctive advantage being ranked at 26th in GLOBAL AIR FRIEGHT INDUSTRY, catering the need of TRANSPORTATION OF C19 vaccine across the GLOBE similar to PPE in coming quarters

EXPO will surely DELIVER SUPER NORMAL RETURNS than any other company in the market recording HISTORICAL HIGHEST EARNINGS AND GROWTH % by end January[3Q2020] and YEARS to come.

EXPO is FOCUSSED on EXPORT ORIENTED BUSINESS which may not HAMPER with any new Government policy as the country now desperately needs EXPORT EARNINGS 

EXPO is a GLOBAL PLAYER marketing its services in many countries where the AVENUES TO GROW is ENDLESS not like catering to LOCAL MARKET ONLY.2


EXPO is highly DIVERSIFIED service offices not only in Sri Lanka which minimize any adverse impact due to any second wave in Sri Lanka. Hence, supply chain disruption risk is minimal.


EXPO forward PE @ 4.7 multiples


EXPO is AGILE to EXPLOIT ANY NEW MARKET OPPORTUNITIES far BETTER than COMPETITION which they have PROVEN 1Q2020 and 2Q2020.


Therefore, EXPO is FUNDAMENTALS wise and future BUSINESS/EARNINGS GROWTH wise displays STRONG OUTLOOK to delivery POCKET FULL OF GAINS in QUARTERS to come


Good Luck
 
Note - This is not a BUY or SELL Recommendation and please do more research about EXPO before making a judgement