EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000)

MarketWch wrote:This will come down to 10 level or below for sure

geesura wrote:

desh87 wrote:

Equityinvestor wrote:

desh87 wrote:

Equityinvestor wrote:

desh87 wrote:It’s amazing how people justify the price of EXPO! I hope too many people won’t get in trouble.

Today or tomorrow you will have to eat your own words...

I don’t own any expo shares FYI

Sorry 

still feeling sorry for u

ONTHEMONEY wrote:Hi All,
 
Thought of giving my opinion on EXPO with the published results with info I gathered from my research avenues; will start off with the below summary on results with last years data points.

Year	Profit	EPS	Dividend Payout
2021 1H	6299	3.21
2021 Q2	4545	2.32
2021 Q1	1754	0.89
2020	-438	Negative	No Dividends
2019	1909	0.741	20%
2018	962	0.364	41%
2017	1229	0.488	31%
2016	1446	0.57	21%
2015	1047	0.868	38%

 
While most of above are self-explanatory let me give my perspective on what we can expect in coming quarters;
 
SCENARIO I - HIGHLY PESIMISTIC VIEW
 
1H EPS -  3.21
2H EPS -  1.16 (25% of Q2 EPS delivery in coming two quarters considering on a conservative model)
 
Total estimated EPS = 4.37
Estimated Market value = 43.7 (Market of 10x Multiplier)
 
SCENARIO II - REALISITIC VIEW
 
1H EPS -  3.21
2H EPS -  2.32 (50% of Q2 EPS delivery in coming two quarters considering on a conservative model)
 
Total estimated EPS = 5.53
Estimated Market value = 55.3 (Market of 10x Multiplier)

SCENARIO III - HIGHLY OPTIMISTIC VIEW
 
1H EPS -  3.21
2H EPS -  3.48 (75% of Q2 EPS delivery in coming two quarters considering on a conservative model)
 
Total estimated EPS = 6.69
Estimated Market value = 66.9 (Market of 10x Multiplier)
 
Notes (As at 09.11.2020)
Current Market P/E  = 10.36
Sector P/E                  =  46

In depth evaluation of the Financial Performance in 2Q20

How will EXPO maintain/ increase the same Q2 profits; If you analyze the data well, you will understand the reduction in the total reported volumes (SGH info) vs Q1 ( Drop of 35%) while an significant increase in profits. 

How is this possible in a scenario where comparative C19 impact was lesser compared to Q1? My hypothesis is the stabilization of their general business along with a partial support from PPE transportation which should be less than Q1. Which gives an indication on how they are no more only a company which depends only in PPE transportation. This also revalidates with the use of significantly higher number of charter flights to transport a significantly lesser volume vs Q1 (25% more). 

My takeout completely will be a continuation of EXPOs strength on their ability and agility to deliver business requirements with a larger number of charter flights will deliver even higher EPS in coming quarters with a help of an increased PPE transportation with the current C19 development vs Q2.          
 
This pushes me to put my expectation towards a SCENARIO I - HIGHLY PESIMISTIC as the minimum to be on the safe side. However, valuations can be reassessed with 3Q20 earnings which I will still keep my hopes towards the SCENARIO II - REALISTIC VIEW; with a Dividend expectation of Rupees 1.80~2 with company’s historical dividend payout ratio. (Average 30%)
 
PS : For all the critics who still wants to check only the NAV, my submission is to check global giants like Amazon, Uber and even most of the established companies who works on a no | minimum Fixed assets policy to have the advantage on flexibility | agility to market volatilities.
 
For those who think of Expo as a COVID stock, I think we need to move away from that assumption. Although Expo benefited from C19, Q2 results clearly indicate they are not dependent on corona. They used COVID to fundamentally change the company. Everyone in the forwarding industry now know of Expo as a logistics powerhouse in Asia. I believe it will remain that way even after COVID ends
 
Note - Not a BUY or SELL Recommendation; Just sharing my views only. Please read more about the company in depth and take your positions taking calculated risk as EXPO reached many heights from very low levels.

Good Luck

The POSITIVE INVESTORS SENTIMENTS in EXPO just before 3Q21 Financials, which passes a STRONG HINT about the improved RESULTS in EXPO. On top of these, I feel the hefty EPS DISCOUNTED by 50%~75% seems to be very pessimistic and I personally believe Rs 66/- noted above in scenario 3 with the computation looks a POSSIBILITY too. Fingers crossed

ONTHEMONEY wrote:

ONTHEMONEY wrote:Hi All,
 
Thought of giving my opinion on EXPO with the published results with info I gathered from my research avenues; will start off with the below summary on results with last years data points.

Year	Profit	EPS	Dividend Payout
2021 1H	6299	3.21
2021 Q2	4545	2.32
2021 Q1	1754	0.89
2020	-438	Negative	No Dividends
2019	1909	0.741	20%
2018	962	0.364	41%
2017	1229	0.488	31%
2016	1446	0.57	21%
2015	1047	0.868	38%

 
While most of above are self-explanatory let me give my perspective on what we can expect in coming quarters;
 
SCENARIO I - HIGHLY PESIMISTIC VIEW
 
1H EPS -  3.21
2H EPS -  1.16 (25% of Q2 EPS delivery in coming two quarters considering on a conservative model)
 
Total estimated EPS = 4.37
Estimated Market value = 43.7 (Market of 10x Multiplier)
 
SCENARIO II - REALISITIC VIEW
 
1H EPS -  3.21
2H EPS -  2.32 (50% of Q2 EPS delivery in coming two quarters considering on a conservative model)
 
Total estimated EPS = 5.53
Estimated Market value = 55.3 (Market of 10x Multiplier)

SCENARIO III - HIGHLY OPTIMISTIC VIEW
 
1H EPS -  3.21
2H EPS -  3.48 (75% of Q2 EPS delivery in coming two quarters considering on a conservative model)
 
Total estimated EPS = 6.69
Estimated Market value = 66.9 (Market of 10x Multiplier)
 
Notes (As at 09.11.2020)
Current Market P/E  = 10.36
Sector P/E                  =  46

In depth evaluation of the Financial Performance in 2Q20

How will EXPO maintain/ increase the same Q2 profits; If you analyze the data well, you will understand the reduction in the total reported volumes (SGH info) vs Q1 ( Drop of 35%) while an significant increase in profits. 

How is this possible in a scenario where comparative C19 impact was lesser compared to Q1? My hypothesis is the stabilization of their general business along with a partial support from PPE transportation which should be less than Q1. Which gives an indication on how they are no more only a company which depends only in PPE transportation. This also revalidates with the use of significantly higher number of charter flights to transport a significantly lesser volume vs Q1 (25% more). 

My takeout completely will be a continuation of EXPOs strength on their ability and agility to deliver business requirements with a larger number of charter flights will deliver even higher EPS in coming quarters with a help of an increased PPE transportation with the current C19 development vs Q2.          
 
This pushes me to put my expectation towards a SCENARIO I - HIGHLY PESIMISTIC as the minimum to be on the safe side. However, valuations can be reassessed with 3Q20 earnings which I will still keep my hopes towards the SCENARIO II - REALISTIC VIEW; with a Dividend expectation of Rupees 1.80~2 with company’s historical dividend payout ratio. (Average 30%)
 
PS : For all the critics who still wants to check only the NAV, my submission is to check global giants like Amazon, Uber and even most of the established companies who works on a no | minimum Fixed assets policy to have the advantage on flexibility | agility to market volatilities.
 
For those who think of Expo as a COVID stock, I think we need to move away from that assumption. Although Expo benefited from C19, Q2 results clearly indicate they are not dependent on corona. They used COVID to fundamentally change the company. Everyone in the forwarding industry now know of Expo as a logistics powerhouse in Asia. I believe it will remain that way even after COVID ends
 
Note - Not a BUY or SELL Recommendation; Just sharing my views only. Please read more about the company in depth and take your positions taking calculated risk as EXPO reached many heights from very low levels.

Good Luck

Hi all,

I sense strong BULL pressure in EXPO as the way it broke Rs 40 and continued CONSOLIDATED BULL pressure during last week which continued with a significant volume.


The POSITIVE INVESTORS SENTIMENTS in EXPO just before 3Q21 Financials, which passes a STRONG HINT about the improved RESULTS in EXPO. On top of these, I feel the hefty EPS DISCOUNTED by 50%~75% seems to be very pessimistic and I personally believe Rs 66/- noted above in scenario 3 with the computation looks a POSSIBILITY too. Fingers crossed

Good Luck

NOTE - not a BUY or SELL RECOMMENDATION. Make your Buy or Sell decision based on own risk/return appetite

subash81 wrote:Now it’s clear we are going to Rs 55

Karthick wrote:It is going to stagnate soon. Don't get trap. Safe trade guys. Especially for beginners...

MR.T5n wrote:SAFE and SECURE Journey towards 60...

subash81 wrote:

MR.T5n wrote:SAFE and SECURE Journey towards 60...

Yes 

Tiger_Wolf wrote:Oops !!! යාලු,,,,
ඉන්දියානු covid එන්නත Feb end ලංකාවට ගෙනාවා. සියලුම සේවාවන් සපයන්නේ ලංකා රජය විසින්. 
ඉතුරු සියලුම එන්නත් චීනයෙන් ගෙනාවා. 
EXPO is nothing to do....

I will buy EXPO 20.00 again  

Tiger_Wolf wrote:Oops !!! යාලු,,,,
ඉන්දියානු covid එන්නත Feb end ලංකාවට ගෙනාවා. සියලුම සේවාවන් සපයන්නේ ලංකා රජය විසින්. 
ඉතුරු සියලුම එන්නත් චීනයෙන් ගෙනාවා. 
EXPO is nothing to do....

I will buy EXPO 20.00 again  

Equityinvestor wrote:

Tiger_Wolf wrote:Oops !!! යාලු,,,,
ඉන්දියානු covid එන්නත Feb end ලංකාවට ගෙනාවා. සියලුම සේවාවන් සපයන්නේ ලංකා රජය විසින්. 
ඉතුරු සියලුම එන්නත් චීනයෙන් ගෙනාවා. 
EXPO is nothing to do....

I will buy EXPO 20.00 again  

Vikey ge malli.

හරි අපි expo විකුනමු එහෙනම්

RJ1010 wrote:

Tiger_Wolf wrote:Oops !!! යාලු,,,,
ඉන්දියානු covid එන්නත Feb end ලංකාවට ගෙනාවා. සියලුම සේවාවන් සපයන්නේ ලංකා රජය විසින්. 
ඉතුරු සියලුම එන්නත් චීනයෙන් ගෙනාවා. 
EXPO is nothing to do....

I will buy EXPO 20.00 again  

Ah Joker is back!

abey wrote:EXPO LANKA  2021.01.15 SHARE PRICE                              5...............0  5.............0

EPS wrote:

ONTHEMONEY wrote:

ONTHEMONEY wrote:Hi All,
 
Thought of giving my opinion on EXPO with the published results with info I gathered from my research avenues; will start off with the below summary on results with last years data points.

Year	Profit	EPS	Dividend Payout
2021 1H	6299	3.21
2021 Q2	4545	2.32
2021 Q1	1754	0.89
2020	-438	Negative	No Dividends
2019	1909	0.741	20%
2018	962	0.364	41%
2017	1229	0.488	31%
2016	1446	0.57	21%
2015	1047	0.868	38%

 
While most of above are self-explanatory let me give my perspective on what we can expect in coming quarters;
 
SCENARIO I - HIGHLY PESIMISTIC VIEW
 
1H EPS -  3.21
2H EPS -  1.16 (25% of Q2 EPS delivery in coming two quarters considering on a conservative model)
 
Total estimated EPS = 4.37
Estimated Market value = 43.7 (Market of 10x Multiplier)
 
SCENARIO II - REALISITIC VIEW
 
1H EPS -  3.21
2H EPS -  2.32 (50% of Q2 EPS delivery in coming two quarters considering on a conservative model)
 
Total estimated EPS = 5.53
Estimated Market value = 55.3 (Market of 10x Multiplier)

SCENARIO III - HIGHLY OPTIMISTIC VIEW
 
1H EPS -  3.21
2H EPS -  3.48 (75% of Q2 EPS delivery in coming two quarters considering on a conservative model)
 
Total estimated EPS = 6.69
Estimated Market value = 66.9 (Market of 10x Multiplier)
 
Notes (As at 09.11.2020)
Current Market P/E  = 10.36
Sector P/E                  =  46

In depth evaluation of the Financial Performance in 2Q20

How will EXPO maintain/ increase the same Q2 profits; If you analyze the data well, you will understand the reduction in the total reported volumes (SGH info) vs Q1 ( Drop of 35%) while an significant increase in profits. 

How is this possible in a scenario where comparative C19 impact was lesser compared to Q1? My hypothesis is the stabilization of their general business along with a partial support from PPE transportation which should be less than Q1. Which gives an indication on how they are no more only a company which depends only in PPE transportation. This also revalidates with the use of significantly higher number of charter flights to transport a significantly lesser volume vs Q1 (25% more). 

My takeout completely will be a continuation of EXPOs strength on their ability and agility to deliver business requirements with a larger number of charter flights will deliver even higher EPS in coming quarters with a help of an increased PPE transportation with the current C19 development vs Q2.          
 
This pushes me to put my expectation towards a SCENARIO I - HIGHLY PESIMISTIC as the minimum to be on the safe side. However, valuations can be reassessed with 3Q20 earnings which I will still keep my hopes towards the SCENARIO II - REALISTIC VIEW; with a Dividend expectation of Rupees 1.80~2 with company’s historical dividend payout ratio. (Average 30%)
 
PS : For all the critics who still wants to check only the NAV, my submission is to check global giants like Amazon, Uber and even most of the established companies who works on a no | minimum Fixed assets policy to have the advantage on flexibility | agility to market volatilities.
 
For those who think of Expo as a COVID stock, I think we need to move away from that assumption. Although Expo benefited from C19, Q2 results clearly indicate they are not dependent on corona. They used COVID to fundamentally change the company. Everyone in the forwarding industry now know of Expo as a logistics powerhouse in Asia. I believe it will remain that way even after COVID ends
 
Note - Not a BUY or SELL Recommendation; Just sharing my views only. Please read more about the company in depth and take your positions taking calculated risk as EXPO reached many heights from very low levels.

Good Luck

Hi all,

I sense strong BULL pressure in EXPO as the way it broke Rs 40 and continued CONSOLIDATED BULL pressure during last week which continued with a significant volume.

The POSITIVE INVESTORS SENTIMENTS in EXPO just before 3Q21 Financials, which passes a STRONG HINT about the improved RESULTS in EXPO. On top of these, I feel the hefty EPS DISCOUNTED by 50%~75% seems to be very pessimistic and I personally believe Rs 66/- noted above in scenario 3 with the computation looks a POSSIBILITY too. Fingers crossed

Good Luck

NOTE - not a BUY or SELL RECOMMENDATION. Make your Buy or Sell decision based on own risk/return appetite

Agreed.
Witnessed Last few days,
1. Heavy buying pressure.
2. Happened larger few Crossings
3. Price Above the Rs.38/- traded large volumes
4. If the selling comes, nicely absorbing
5. Some large parcels absorb within 1 -2 minutes
6. May be HNI's also playing
So, more possible to reach even Rs.75/-

CSE daily says Market PER 12 (Yesterday Report).
EXPO mostly deliver above the Rs.7.5 Earnings Per Share for the full FY.
So, as per Market PE = 12 x 7.5 = Rs.90
as per 10 PE = 10 X 7.5 = Rs.75
as per 8 PE = 8 X 7.5 = Rs.60
Many investors and Larger money seems inflow to EXPO and sometimes, this may push to above expectation level.

Other way, Positive factors....
1. Worldwide Ocean & Freight rates are continually going up and compare to Q2, it has increased min 30%. (Check Shanghai freight index)
2. EXPO 75% owned by Japanese Management and their growth planed published in SGH web as they wanted to be upgrade EXPO as south Asian giant in Logistic business sector.
3. Increase Demand for Flight Charters
4. Not only Sri Lanka, they having World wide business offices.
5. 26th place in World container handling index.
6. Ongoing large earnings and they Having enough Cash in their Balance Sheet. (Guess each month they do earn 1 Billion above. Q2 its 1.7 Bn and waiting to see Q3 financials ). Thinks, they can do larger investments to grow their business.

So, probably we will see positive investor sentimental in coming days with trading EXPO.

abey wrote:2021.01.15 share price

abey wrote:2021.01.15 share price

Ahilan007 wrote:

abey wrote:2021.01.15 share price

tomorrow expo might reach 50.. Remember on  Q2 report date it has reached 30, and with the super earnings expo will reach 55 on or before Q3 report...

Value Pick wrote:

Ahilan007 wrote:

abey wrote:2021.01.15 share price

tomorrow expo might reach 50.. Remember on  Q2 report date it has reached 30, and with the super earnings expo will reach 55 on or before Q3 report...

It looks like with the report will touch Rs75/-

subash81 wrote:

Value Pick wrote:

Ahilan007 wrote:

abey wrote:2021.01.15 share price

tomorrow expo might reach 50.. Remember on  Q2 report date it has reached 30, and with the super earnings expo will reach 55 on or before Q3 report...

It looks like with the report will touch Rs75/-

Yes. tomorrow 55 and with the result 75