MADU will hit 70 very quickly for sure.

Leader · 1 MADU will hit 70 very quickly for sure. Thu Feb 10, 2011 8:31 pm

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i have told that MADU will rock the market very soon. see its just started. watch wat will happn in 2rw and next week.still the train is waiting at the station.

at the end of the day no sellers, but thousands of buyers are waiting on the list. i have told u this will happn in 2 days earlier. its ur money. make ur own decision. dnt let only big players to gain profit.

cselk · 2 Re: MADU will hit 70 very quickly for sure. Thu Feb 10, 2011 8:46 pm

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in your dream..it's pure manipulation

mono · 3 Re: MADU will hit 70 very quickly for sure. Thu Feb 10, 2011 8:54 pm

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i don't know about manipulation but MADU is a not a great plantation. It has many problems and the upcoming wage revision will be another one of those.

So even if this revaluation is true there is a large disincentive for long term investors to invest in MADU.

Leader · 4 why Thu Feb 10, 2011 9:09 pm

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why are u saying its a manipulation? if the net asset value per share is around 70, cant v expect the increment of share price. if u say this is a manipulation ,all other stocks in the market are manipulated. bcoz all shares market price is higher than its net asset value per share. im saying this after having deep analysis and having so many discussions with many knowledgeable advisors. so if u are saying this is a manipulation plc give ur facts without discouraging other investors.

cselk · 5 Re: MADU will hit 70 very quickly for sure. Thu Feb 10, 2011 9:19 pm

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Leader wrote:why are u saying its a manipulation? if the net asset value per share is around 70, cant v expect the increment of share price. if u say this is a manipulation ,all other stocks in the market are manipulated. bcoz all shares market price is higher than its net asset value per share. im saying this after having deep analysis and having so many discussions with many knowledgeable advisors. so if u are saying this is a manipulation plc give ur facts without discouraging other investors.

SEC usually put the price band when a share most likely being manipulated or protect the investors while falling drastically (examples PCH , LALU, MADU and KAPI, BOPL for the latter)

Go and see the NAV of Kuruwita textlies, (its somewhere around 60 but currently stagnating at 30 levels since because of losses), MPRH and i saw some more but i cannot recall..

90% weightage of a share price is from EPS and profits and future growth etc. may be 10% can be given to NAVPS

what i feel is MADU is worth around 24

DMA · 6 who says a manipulation?,,,,,,, on wt grounds? Thu Feb 10, 2011 9:23 pm

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I dont kw y u say a manipulation.
does the independent valuer did a mistake?
Auditors did a mistake or will do a mistake since it is unaudited??

@ mono........
you ar correct. MADU is a loss making company and they will adjst the wages again. it has a big negative impact........
but it cannot trade with 50% dicount to the NAV.
remember it traded at 18 when the NAV was at Rs 8. so there is a possibility to break 100 in the mid term may be short term, after adjusting the NAV to 75 + with there 4th q statment.

so i dont seany risk in this investment, for me MADU is with 0 risk untill 60.
u may agree or not. but it is risk free oppotunitu u may ever heard.

this is my last analysis i posted two days back.now u may too late.
thank u friends.

IN the last q statement they (MADU) clearly say,

Events Subsequent to the interim Period

The Carrying Value of Fuel wood (Timber) Plantations which reflects as Rs. 110.667 Mn.as at 30th September 2010, have been revalued by an independent Qualified Valuer and the revaluation has not yet been incorporated into the Financial Statements. The revalued amount is Rs.2,261,054,393/=

It says event after Baance sheet date. so in this quoter they should adjust the NAV other wise it will be a misleading infomation.

MADU growing Trees with the intention to cue those and regrow next set with out damaging to the environment or with less effects and it is a common practice of the industry.

MADU has already grew rubber and company's bottemline will get benifit in the long run, so it is a good company for long term investors as well,

MASKELIYA is trading under NAV (.94) and it is a fully tea plantation so if we take MASK as a proxi company MADU should at least trade at 70 Level.

IF we take a advers senario like TWOD, MADU should trade with a 68% discount to the NAV which is RS 51 and hope it will never happen due to the discounting rate MADU used to revalue will never low as TWOD. ( i dont think MADu will use a low discounting rate like TWOD after seen the TWOD case)

3 million traded on friday from 18 to 28 and the person who bought it may kw the real value before us.

so with all these analysis hope MADU is a risk free investment at this price with a good expected return. i just post this as a answer for my previos post.
Conclution.
MADU cannot trade under 50 after their Revaluation which they ar going to publish with in 2 or 3 weeks.price is slowly adjusting from 18 level.

good luck

Leader · 7 wow Thu Feb 10, 2011 9:45 pm

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thats a great analysis. thanx DMA. others dnt buy if u think its a manipulation. we will make profit. no issue. thanx.

mono · 8 Re: MADU will hit 70 very quickly for sure. Thu Feb 10, 2011 9:54 pm

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there are plenty of companies here that trade at an considerable discount. look at the entire textile sector & real estate sector. or internationally look at US banks there plenty of them trading 10% nav

DMA · 9 Respect ur idias,,,,,,,, Thu Feb 10, 2011 10:26 pm

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u may correct mono. i respect all ur ideas and learning from them.

but in sri lanka banks ar trading at 3.5 times higher than tha Net assts.
wt u think about MADU s previouse trading pattern??????
NEt assets 8 traded above 15.
only issue i see is it is biological assets and and we will see a SLAS on this sooner than leater.

we cant get US banks now due to financial crisis.those ar with big negative losses with subprime morgage issue and having a negative image on their poor risk control.

if we get examples from all over the world there may be situations where big blue chips trading at 25% NAV with big corrections like dot. com bubble and wall street crash at 1929.

but u all saw MADU is adjusting from 18 to some higher number.
so no need further explanations. as per my knowledge some big broker firms just started the collection of MADU.

i dont want to promote MADU since it is already moving and i am definitly tell this forum where i drop this share since there may be at least one person who collected after reading my posts.i have the responsibility.

I am certain that this higer no is far more than 50.

any way thanks friends.

shaankh · 10 Re: MADU will hit 70 very quickly for sure. Fri Feb 11, 2011 2:39 am

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Chances of moving MADU is evident since it did not drop even after price band.
I am optimistic about MADU.

SilverHawk · 11 Re: MADU will hit 70 very quickly for sure. Fri Feb 11, 2011 6:56 am

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Leader wrote:why are u saying its a manipulation? if the net asset value per share is around 70, cant v expect the increment of share price. if u say this is a manipulation ,all other stocks in the market are manipulated. bcoz all shares market price is higher than its net asset value per share. im saying this after having deep analysis and having so many discussions with many knowledgeable advisors. so if u are saying this is a manipulation plc give ur facts without discouraging other investors.

they are financial statements say NAVP is 8.5
How is become 70 mark??

dhamm · 12 Re: MADU will hit 70 very quickly for sure. Fri Feb 11, 2011 7:43 am

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SilverHawk wrote:

Leader wrote:why are u saying its a manipulation? if the net asset value per share is around 70, cant v expect the increment of share price. if u say this is a manipulation ,all other stocks in the market are manipulated. bcoz all shares market price is higher than its net asset value per share. im saying this after having deep analysis and having so many discussions with many knowledgeable advisors. so if u are saying this is a manipulation plc give ur facts without discouraging other investors.

they are financial statements say NAVP is 8.5
How is become 70 mark??

SilvefrHawk,

read the following post.
http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t44-madulsima-madu-is-there-any-value-in-timber?highlight=MADU

analyst123 · 13 MADU-Short term or long term Fri Feb 11, 2011 8:11 am

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As per this discussion, I believe the NAV of MADU is expected to adjust to the 70/- and above through the quarterly results.
What we should look at is the ability of it to trade at or close to the NAV in the short term. Since it is a tea plantation, the profitability may not be their in the short term, but that does not mean it should not trade at such a discount to the the NAV.
Timber stock has a value which is appreciating all the time, therefore the probability that they will realize the gain is highly likely.
Therefore in the short term the I expect the price to increase in the regions of NAV, but going furthur a lot of work needs to be done if the company is to turnaround.
Therefore I see a possible upside till it reach the NAV, but it is difficult to imagine a 2X multiple of NAV (As the case of KGAL and other highly profitable plantations).
All the best..

Marketsentiment · 14 Reply to mono Fri Feb 11, 2011 8:26 am

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Those who coudn't collect @ 32 level, try to stick manipulation label. Laughing

dhamm · 15 Re: MADU will hit 70 very quickly for sure. Fri Feb 11, 2011 8:43 am

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Revaluation seems to be true. I don't know whether its manipulated or not.

But what i saw,from the order book was that the share is appreciating. Two days, ppl tried to bargain and to collect it around 32. But, the third day, since the sellers are not ready to sell around 32, it went up to 34+ with 10% up.