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Sri Lanka Equity Forum » Stock Market Talk » Easieast way to find the top and the bottom

Easieast way to find the top and the bottom

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1Easieast way to find the top and the bottom Empty Easieast way to find the top and the bottom on Tue Jul 12, 2011 8:03 am

gann

gann
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
When majority thinks everything is great and expecting this rally and that rally you bet thats the top. (height of optimism, overbought) thats the final 5th wave in elliot theory.
When majority thinks we are doomed and no more hope you bet thats the bottom. (height of pessimism, oversold) thats the final leg of c wave in elliot theory.

mcyi9rt4


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
thanks for explaining that i have studied technical analysis too much
i should perhaps read into elliots theories when i find the time
+ reps from me bro bounce

mcyi9rt4


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
*i have not

Jude

Jude
Stock Analytic
Stock Analytic
thank you for sharing buddy

duke


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Only time travellers can say the top and bottoms, as at that time in history.

Share prices has to come down by half the current values or the company profits has to double soon. But because the previous quarter results had lots of one time sell offs and revaluations the profits will go down in the next quarters.

Even Coca Cola is going at a PE ratio of 13.

People were predicting bull runs all the time. The following classic for dooms day forecasters was referenced in May when people talked about a bear phase then.
http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t3801-hitler-misses-the-bull-market



Last edited by duke on Tue Jul 12, 2011 9:10 am; edited 1 time in total

Light of Hope


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
so where are we now? could our situation be applied to this? please elaborate

suja


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
In the middle I guess, who can predict?

gann

gann
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
ASI 6350 thats my bottom.

gann

gann
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@duke
traders love optimism since you cant short in cse.

RichDad

RichDad
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
6300 is mine.

rijayasooriya

rijayasooriya
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@mcyi9rt4 wrote:thanks for explaining that i have studied technical analysis too much
i should perhaps read into elliots theories when i find the time
+ reps from me bro bounce
Be careful brother.
Even creators of Elliot Wave Theory says it has poor value on predictions.
Even applying Fibonacci Ratio u can not guarantee the outcome.

mono

mono
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
usually tops and bottoms in the markets are large buy or sell orders. that over extend the market. on either direction.

gann

gann
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@rijayasooriya wrote:
@mcyi9rt4 wrote:thanks for explaining that i have studied technical analysis too much
i should perhaps read into elliots theories when i find the time
+ reps from me bro bounce
Be careful brother.
Even creators of Elliot Wave Theory says it has poor value on predictions.
Even applying Fibonacci Ratio u can not guarantee the outcome.

usually c wave end near the end of the 4th wave which is at 6400. its just a guideline. but i have seen that occur in practice many times.
correction after the 5th wave is the largest. 2nd and 4th are minor.
Easieast way to find the top and the bottom Elliot10



Last edited by gann on Tue Jul 12, 2011 3:05 pm; edited 3 times in total

gann

gann
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@mono wrote:usually tops and bottoms in the markets are large buy or sell orders. that over extend the market. on either direction.

yes. you get large buy orders when optimism is at its height and vice versa. when you see couple of distribution days (ie: when increase in volume than the previous session but the price or index movement is lower than the prev session) you know the top is near.

15Easieast way to find the top and the bottom Empty How to Identify the Bottom of the Stock Market on Thu Jan 12, 2012 8:58 pm

cseguide

cseguide
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
How to Identify the Bottom of the Stock Market
Knowing when Prices have Hit their Lowest can Mean Big Profits

By Ken Little,

Do you want to know the exact date the stock market hits bottom and begins a true rebound during a bear market?

This is a magic date because stocks often post substantial gains coming out of a bear market and the biggest percentage increases happen early in the rebound.

The rebound usually doesn’t correspond with an upturn in the economy, but often precedes it. The market always looks forward so bad news today has already been factored into prices.

If you know when the market is hitting bottom, you can pick up some bargains before the upswing raises prices - the perfect “buy low” opportunity.

But what if you’re wrong?

Wrong Signals
The market is notorious for sending signals about false bottoms. If you jump at one of these false bottoms, you may soon see your value investment sinking further.

Even worse, the false bottom could be the first of many - each one a blip of hope before the market sinks further.

When the true rebound comes, it may be hard to identify.

It could be marked in the initial stages with bursts and retreats in prices.

So, how will you know the true rebound from the false start?

It’s actually fairly easy to spot - about three months after it happens.

Market Bottom
That’s when most observers will speak with confidence that the market bottomed and a true rebound began.

Of course, that information three months after the fact isn’t very useful, but it points up an important consideration.

Trying to time the bottom of the market is a guessing game a best - not a way to invest your money.

Your best strategy is to stay invested during downturns that way you can’t miss the bottom of the market and the subsequent gains on the upside.

It is difficult to watch the value of your portfolio drop in a down market, but study after study has shown that staying invested with a well-balanced portfolio is the best strategy.

Kumar

Kumar
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Thanks for sharing.
There are some more valuable posts regarding this in our forum.
Please find below the link.
http://forum.srilankaequity.com/search?search_keywords=bottom

Stockmate


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
You can minimize the risk by collecting close to a technical support line.

Rajaraam


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Stockmate wrote:You can minimize the risk by collecting close to a technical support line.

very correct.

Kumar

Kumar
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Thanks gann.

aj


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Wow people thought 6300 is the bottom.

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