I am clearing my PF...

I am clearing even my long term counters and moving to defensive stocks. The whole world is gearing for a global slowdown and SL may not be immune to that. Current market valuations are not up for value for money.

How you read the market for 2011 second half and 2012?

but when compare to other country still SL have greater potential to have speedy recovery. after 30 yrs of we just finish 3 year still more are to develop and now only some of the land government releasing to the development project. Even global slowdown we can achieve 7-8% GDP growth. still compare to Maldives SL hotel are cheaper for tourist.

Tiger wrote:I am clearing even my long term counters and moving to defensive stocks. The whole world is gearing for a global slowdown and SL may not be immune to that. Current market valuations are not up for value for money.
How you read the market for 2011 second half and 2012?

I am in for longhaul. Collect bottom fish now and wait

It is very unlikely to get short term gains nowadays. I also think of changing to medium term stocks with good financials. Safer option. Shares like HAYL,BRWN, BUKI, CARS,SAMP, GUAR, COMB, are a safer options, remains stable due to good financials slight growth can be expected even on a global recession as the PLCs continue to provide excellent financial results.

Due to global slowdown foreign investor are withdrawing from markets around the globe.... but this could be temporary...

CSE does not represent our economy to greater degree; if market down that does not mean our economy is necessarily down and wise versa. Where as in developed countries capital market represent the economy to a greater degree. So in those countries scenario is somewhat different.

some socio-economic factors of 2008 and 2011 (later half and 2012);

Sri Lankan economy 2008
Inflation around28 %
Minimal foreign reserves
We had to struggle for external barrowings
War in the NE
Political instability
Interest rates were high (around 25% were you had to pay ¼ fourth of capital as interest)
No tourism industry at all
....

2011
Inflation is below 10
We have descent foreign reserve
Conflict is over
Political stability
Interest rate kept low
Growing tourism industry
.....

So medium term to long term prospectus are favorable

Tiger wrote:I am clearing even my long term counters and moving to defensive stocks. The whole world is gearing for a global slowdown and SL may not be immune to that. Current market valuations are not up for value for money.

How you read the market for 2011 second half and 2012?

Will we be able to buy again JKH at 60,DIST at 50,DIMO at 150,BFL at 10, COMB at 100 as in those days2008-2009

I don't think this going to happen.

WildBear wrote:

Tiger wrote:I am clearing even my long term counters and moving to defensive stocks. The whole world is gearing for a global slowdown and SL may not be immune to that. Current market valuations are not up for value for money.

How you read the market for 2011 second half and 2012?

Will we be able to buy again JKH at 60,DIST at 50,DIMO at 150,BFL at 10, COMB at 100 as in those days2008-2009

I don't think this going to happen.

If you really dig in, you might see some other shares trading aat discounts which have a great potential..

good,but i feel you are late

WildBear wrote:

Tiger wrote:I am clearing even my long term counters and moving to defensive stocks. The whole world is gearing for a global slowdown and SL may not be immune to that. Current market valuations are not up for value for money.

How you read the market for 2011 second half and 2012?

Will we be able to buy again JKH at 60,DIST at 50,DIMO at 150,BFL at 10, COMB at 100 as in those days2008-2009

I don't think this going to happen.

Only in our dreams bro.. This meltdown is temporary and the impact a global slowdown bring to cse is minimum.. Foreigners may move out if they require money, then fear of our investors may bring down the market a little bit. But we've already seen some adverse effects of investor sentiments these few months bringing the market down to 2009 levels for most counters..

Still after good news we're heading on a wrong directions, it occurs to me that we're now actually like lost in between our investments and returns it gives us..

wiki wrote:
2011
Inflation is below 10
We have descent foreign reserve
Conflict is over
Political stability
Interest rate kept low
Growing tourism industry
.....

So medium term to long term prospectus are favorable

My analysis

2011
Inflation is below 10 - Don't fully trust on this value
We have descent foreign reserve - Of course but, big loans
Conflict is over -
Political stability - Not sure though
Interest rate kept low - Gud factor
Growing tourism industry - Yeah

Considering all @ one bucket => yes it is better than wht it ws sm 3yrs back

In my opinion when compared with other Asian countries SL is placed in a better position as there are a lot of development activities being carried out by the government and the private sector after the end of the 30 year war. Also last quarter results of most of the listed companies are quite good.

The global economic down turn would impact some of the export related industries like garments as US and Euro zone being major importers of garments and the tourism industry.

In any financial crisis people need to eat and drink so the agri food sector and companies that cater to the local needs would not be impacted much.

Only worrying factors are corruption and the rate of inflation which needs to be kept under control or this might have an adverse impact on the economy.

Medium to long term prospects looks very bright for SL.

Investor99 wrote:In my opinion when compared with other Asian countries SL is placed in a better position as there are a lot of development activities being carried out by the government and the private sector after the end of the 30 year war. Also last quarter results of most of the listed companies are quite good.
The global economic down turn would impact some of the export related industries like garments as US and Euro zone being major importers of garments and the tourism industry.
In any financial crisis people need to eat and drink so the agri food sector and companies that cater to the local needs would not be impacted much.
Only worrying factors are corruption and the rate of inflation which needs to be kept under control or this might have an adverse impact on the economy.
Medium to long term prospects looks very bright for SL.

Couldn't agree more.
The inflation number is to be taken with a pinch of salt.
What is stated and what is out there is far apart.
Companies cater to local consumption is a safe bet at this hour due to the US & EU situation.

Except Player everyone else is advocating to not sell off my PF. My feeling is that market will go down further after couple of days or weeks, many companies have already fairly valued and investing in those will not create any value. Therefore I will take a defensive position in the short term.

I have already disposed 50% of my PF during March-June and out of Balance I will dispose all counters which has profit and book the profits. My overall PF has 10% profit and I will book all that profit and counters which are trading at loss will be kept on Hold.

I will reinvest sales proceeds in defensive stocks.
This will be my strategy at this market, only time will tell whether its a wise move.

Thanks for all your comments, this is my personal view and please obtain professional advice before making your investment decision.

Tiger wrote:Except Player everyone else is advocating to not sell off my PF. My feeling is that market will go down further after couple of days or weeks, many companies have already fairly valued and investing in those will not create any value. Therefore I will take a defensive position in the short term.

I have already disposed 50% of my PF during March-June and out of Balance I will dispose all counters which has profit and book the profits. My overall PF has 10% profit and I will book all that profit and counters which are trading at loss will be kept on Hold.

I will reinvest sales proceeds in defensive stocks.
This will be my strategy at this market, only time will tell whether its a wise move.

Thanks for all your comments, this is my personal view and please obtain professional advice before making your investment decision.

Hi, Did you disposed your portfoio before 2008-2009 recession as well. By the way, let us know the defensive counters you selected...

RockStock wrote:

Tiger wrote:Except Player everyone else is advocating to not sell off my PF. My feeling is that market will go down further after couple of days or weeks, many companies have already fairly valued and investing in those will not create any value. Therefore I will take a defensive position in the short term.

I have already disposed 50% of my PF during March-June and out of Balance I will dispose all counters which has profit and book the profits. My overall PF has 10% profit and I will book all that profit and counters which are trading at loss will be kept on Hold.

I will reinvest sales proceeds in defensive stocks.
This will be my strategy at this market, only time will tell whether its a wise move.

Thanks for all your comments, this is my personal view and please obtain professional advice before making your investment decision.

Hi, Did you disposed your portfoio before 2008-2009 recession as well. By the way, let us know the defensive counters you selected...

In 2008-2009 period I was just a small investor, and my PF was below 1Mn so I just kept on playing in the market through trial and error. Now my PF has grown to pretty substantial level so I dont have the same levy that I had at that time, I must now stick to good PF management techniques.

Any how some of my defensive stocks are DOC, LION, DIAL, and CTC.

Tiger wrote:Except Player everyone else is advocating to not sell off my PF. My feeling is that market will go down further after couple of days or weeks, many companies have already fairly valued and investing in those will not create any value. Therefore I will take a defensive position in the short term.

if we think same,we cant be different from others...how you become a player if think like others ,no you cant...you have to think logically...

ddnt you guys saw the huge crossings happened before market went down to 6500 level ,HNWI was advised to sell off at that time and keep the money for speculation purposes..so many sold off at market bringing steep downwards in some counters...
ex-TRAN,CIND,JKH.etc(in here distribution was done to public).

market may rise after you sold,but dnt worry,it cant pass 7500 mark in this year as i feel bcoz of current trend,but it has over 60% chance to go down to 6500 level,
so i still believe you took the right decision........

btw please be wise to buy cash generating counters from that money,regardless its manipulation or speculation..
first in first out

Medium term investments and profit making PLCs with capital gains are a safer option. From this forum learnt that lot of them exit from speculative counters.

I also cashed up 50% of my pf. and put 50% of the remaining to VONE. As i feel its a safe counter with high potential when market recovers.

Tiger wrote:Except Player everyone else is advocating to not sell off my PF. My feeling is that market will go down further after couple of days or weeks, many companies have already fairly valued and investing in those will not create any value. Therefore I will take a defensive position in the short term.

I have already disposed 50% of my PF during March-June and out of Balance I will dispose all counters which has profit and book the profits. My overall PF has 10% profit and I will book all that profit and counters which are trading at loss will be kept on Hold.

I will reinvest sales proceeds in defensive stocks.
This will be my strategy at this market, only time will tell whether its a wise move.

Thanks for all your comments, this is my personal view and please obtain professional advice before making your investment decision.

You name TIGER doesnt match what u r going to do... Better to change it to CHICKEN ...

investor1984 wrote:

Tiger wrote:Except Player everyone else is advocating to not sell off my PF. My feeling is that market will go down further after couple of days or weeks, many companies have already fairly valued and investing in those will not create any value. Therefore I will take a defensive position in the short term.

I have already disposed 50% of my PF during March-June and out of Balance I will dispose all counters which has profit and book the profits. My overall PF has 10% profit and I will book all that profit and counters which are trading at loss will be kept on Hold.

I will reinvest sales proceeds in defensive stocks.
This will be my strategy at this market, only time will tell whether its a wise move.

Thanks for all your comments, this is my personal view and please obtain professional advice before making your investment decision.

You name TIGER doesnt match what u r going to do... Better to change it to CHICKEN ...

LOL, Only time will tell whether I am a Chicken, Lion, Donkey or a Tiger.