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I was thinking what I should be writing on my 2000th post. As most people are down in the dumps these days
and there is so much of negative vs positive talk, I think it best to throw some ideas at you to look at things from another perspective.
I have been with this forum from the time it had less than 50 people. I am happy to see it grow up to 5800 people to date.
We had times of cheer , we had time of sorrow , we had times of vehement arguments, we had times of agreement and but most importantly most of us are still here. Through thick and thin. I also think we will be here for many more decades,
but only if we think with a balanced mind set.
Here we go.
I see 3 prominent parties at the forum now.
Those who
i) strongly believes market is overvalued and see there is no hope for growth within the immediate future and
market as a whole needs a significant (more) correction ( thinks negative trends ahead)
ii) those who strongly believes market has corrected enough from the top ASI of 7800 ( near 25% fall) and there is growth
and it deserves the bull trend ( positive trends ahead)
iii) those do not worry really about macro factors but believes due to recent developments at SEC and the President being
involved the tides will change very soon ( positive trends irrespectively)
First let us realize the truth that each investor's sentiment and outlook rests on their personal beliefs, their experiences and how successful their strategies were shaped by their Investing Periods.
Some like
a) Short term and trend trading : so their vision and thinking is within that frame.
b) Long term ( Many years) : so their vision and thinking will be atleast 2-3 years from now.
Each party can condemn the other's strategy. Firstly I request DON'T.
During these times some would prefer to stay away as trading is difficult due to lower volumes. Some would systematically collect thinking these are bargains values which would have the potential to go up to even 50-100% within identified time frame ( several years). Some would say why buy even if it a bargain if I can buy cheaper in the future. Some say why hold shares in a loosing market. Some say why don't you collect when you see bargains. Some say buy when others are fearful. Some say buy when their is blood on the streets. Some say sell before we loose more.
Let's pause now . Take a breather and just think why forum is so divided with negative and positive posts.
Has it anything to do with at least something what is I said above?
Irrespective of your beliefs here is my suggestions : DON'T THINK EXTREMELY ALWAYS BUT TAKE THE MIDDLE PATH
( as per some religions)
WHY? At any given time in a market
a) some set of shares have a possibility to take off ( isn't it true even in bear market. How many instances have we seen this happen). We also need to understand that some shares have a higher probability to go up than others.
(Manipulation or not but please realize any shares needs a kick to make a upward movement. This is a different topic but the fact remains).
Have you ever said "Oh $%^% why did I not buy it before. REG was Rs 160 not is it Rs 500. Curse oh curse. I could have gained xx%. Everything goes up but the shares I hold and use all the other 4 letter words to curse yourself.
b) there will be a set of shares which will be undervalued to market. Even if the market is overvalued will it be right to
say all shares at CSE are useless and overvalued. If so why are we even wasting time looking at CSE or talking about it?
Now , if we can identify those shares depending on the time frame of your holding ( weeks, months or years), aren't you the winner? Aren't you ahead of the pack. Ofcourse the question is what are these shares. That is the hardest part.
That is the skill we need to develop. Do I have it. NO. But I admit am improving as I am ready to accept that I do not know everything and not be focused only on my fixed mindset. We need to try and adopt to situations.
There was a time I invested only on fundamentally strong shares. I gained XXX% . But these days in this down market
I have
a) collected my long term shares ( all fundamentally strong shares from my view and belief)
b) rotate some weaker shares for more attractive ones
c) changed my mind set to do SMALL trades on even some speculatives ( please do not confuse with gambling. These were
trade identified with patience and held for sometimes weeks ) which I have made small profit ( sometimes less than RS
1000 or sometime RS100s) most times than not.
BTW, What should an Investor have in the basket ?
a) Identified strong shares for Long term ( which should atleast give you decent some dividend in worst case).
b) Some value shares and other shares , which will have higher possibility of a take off at any time ( these could be fundamentals or speculative but with some backing) .
c) shares looking at trend patterns for short term gain
Is the market overvalued or undervalued now ?
Neither.
There are overvalued shares which I agree still needs further correction . Some of them systematically are going through corrections. Ex: look at what happend to JKH, HNB.N and many more others . Some are trading at unbelievable prices still.
There are undervalued shares which are very attractive for investors with patience. Trading less than market and sector
So hereafter I suggest we also talk more about individual shares and strategies than and making post after post about
a "bubble market" or a "heaven". Both extremes are not suitable as we will miss or loose.
Again remember depending on your mind set and skills you can be ahead of the pack if you keep an open mind.
As the market is about to start I will stop now.
Let me leave you with this thought. Let us not waste time to condemn or praise the market excessively at any given time. Instead let us try more to identify opportunities and adapt to situation. Find a strategy that best work for you.
Finally as always
"Learn the basics, Invest not gamble, know your investment period, have Patience , have lesser Greed , know your entry and exit points and you will be a victor on the longer run at CSE"
Just for anybody interested. This is what I wrote many months ago on my 1000 post.
http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t3932-message-to-new-comers-on-the-occasion-of-my-celebrating-4-months-1000-posts-at-the-forum?highlight=on+the+occasion+of+my
and there is so much of negative vs positive talk, I think it best to throw some ideas at you to look at things from another perspective.
I have been with this forum from the time it had less than 50 people. I am happy to see it grow up to 5800 people to date.
We had times of cheer , we had time of sorrow , we had times of vehement arguments, we had times of agreement and but most importantly most of us are still here. Through thick and thin. I also think we will be here for many more decades,
but only if we think with a balanced mind set.
Here we go.
I see 3 prominent parties at the forum now.
Those who
i) strongly believes market is overvalued and see there is no hope for growth within the immediate future and
market as a whole needs a significant (more) correction ( thinks negative trends ahead)
ii) those who strongly believes market has corrected enough from the top ASI of 7800 ( near 25% fall) and there is growth
and it deserves the bull trend ( positive trends ahead)
iii) those do not worry really about macro factors but believes due to recent developments at SEC and the President being
involved the tides will change very soon ( positive trends irrespectively)
First let us realize the truth that each investor's sentiment and outlook rests on their personal beliefs, their experiences and how successful their strategies were shaped by their Investing Periods.
Some like
a) Short term and trend trading : so their vision and thinking is within that frame.
b) Long term ( Many years) : so their vision and thinking will be atleast 2-3 years from now.
Each party can condemn the other's strategy. Firstly I request DON'T.
During these times some would prefer to stay away as trading is difficult due to lower volumes. Some would systematically collect thinking these are bargains values which would have the potential to go up to even 50-100% within identified time frame ( several years). Some would say why buy even if it a bargain if I can buy cheaper in the future. Some say why hold shares in a loosing market. Some say why don't you collect when you see bargains. Some say buy when others are fearful. Some say buy when their is blood on the streets. Some say sell before we loose more.
Let's pause now . Take a breather and just think why forum is so divided with negative and positive posts.
Has it anything to do with at least something what is I said above?
Irrespective of your beliefs here is my suggestions : DON'T THINK EXTREMELY ALWAYS BUT TAKE THE MIDDLE PATH
( as per some religions)
WHY? At any given time in a market
a) some set of shares have a possibility to take off ( isn't it true even in bear market. How many instances have we seen this happen). We also need to understand that some shares have a higher probability to go up than others.
(Manipulation or not but please realize any shares needs a kick to make a upward movement. This is a different topic but the fact remains).
Have you ever said "Oh $%^% why did I not buy it before. REG was Rs 160 not is it Rs 500. Curse oh curse. I could have gained xx%. Everything goes up but the shares I hold and use all the other 4 letter words to curse yourself.
b) there will be a set of shares which will be undervalued to market. Even if the market is overvalued will it be right to
say all shares at CSE are useless and overvalued. If so why are we even wasting time looking at CSE or talking about it?
Now , if we can identify those shares depending on the time frame of your holding ( weeks, months or years), aren't you the winner? Aren't you ahead of the pack. Ofcourse the question is what are these shares. That is the hardest part.
That is the skill we need to develop. Do I have it. NO. But I admit am improving as I am ready to accept that I do not know everything and not be focused only on my fixed mindset. We need to try and adopt to situations.
There was a time I invested only on fundamentally strong shares. I gained XXX% . But these days in this down market
I have
a) collected my long term shares ( all fundamentally strong shares from my view and belief)
b) rotate some weaker shares for more attractive ones
c) changed my mind set to do SMALL trades on even some speculatives ( please do not confuse with gambling. These were
trade identified with patience and held for sometimes weeks ) which I have made small profit ( sometimes less than RS
1000 or sometime RS100s) most times than not.
BTW, What should an Investor have in the basket ?
a) Identified strong shares for Long term ( which should atleast give you decent some dividend in worst case).
b) Some value shares and other shares , which will have higher possibility of a take off at any time ( these could be fundamentals or speculative but with some backing) .
c) shares looking at trend patterns for short term gain
Is the market overvalued or undervalued now ?
Neither.
There are overvalued shares which I agree still needs further correction . Some of them systematically are going through corrections. Ex: look at what happend to JKH, HNB.N and many more others . Some are trading at unbelievable prices still.
There are undervalued shares which are very attractive for investors with patience. Trading less than market and sector
So hereafter I suggest we also talk more about individual shares and strategies than and making post after post about
a "bubble market" or a "heaven". Both extremes are not suitable as we will miss or loose.
Again remember depending on your mind set and skills you can be ahead of the pack if you keep an open mind.
As the market is about to start I will stop now.
Let me leave you with this thought. Let us not waste time to condemn or praise the market excessively at any given time. Instead let us try more to identify opportunities and adapt to situation. Find a strategy that best work for you.
Finally as always
"Learn the basics, Invest not gamble, know your investment period, have Patience , have lesser Greed , know your entry and exit points and you will be a victor on the longer run at CSE"
Just for anybody interested. This is what I wrote many months ago on my 1000 post.
http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t3932-message-to-new-comers-on-the-occasion-of-my-celebrating-4-months-1000-posts-at-the-forum?highlight=on+the+occasion+of+my
