On the occasion passing 5000th post : CSE Past , Present and Future

I was wondering whether to write something after my 5000th post and decided against it due some reasons. But as we hit ASI 6000 and people seems to come back to forum I thought I post the below for the reference of the new comers as I feel it is social duty to inform them ( I am volunteer at the forum)




So when did the bull market start?

I think we can safely say ( unless there is a catastrophe) that 4700 was the bottom and the turn around.

I posted below when ASi around 4700-4900

http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t19939-good-shares-time-to-analyze-and-post-findings-open-invitation-to-all

http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t19816-some-thoughts-on-cse-market-situation-at-present




What will happen in the short term now that we are at asi 6000?

a) If buying momentum continues the market can be pushed much higher maybe to 6300 in the first go.
b) Overall market is in the overbought region. So we are in the dangerous territory. A correction can happen and I really hope it stays above 5800. else big worry




I am a new comer and what share should I pick now?


1) Stock market is not a gambler den ( it was at one point but I doubt it will repeat at that level again like in 2010-2011). It is a place for investment. Investment takes time to realize. when you plant your seeds it takes time to harvest.
Know the difference in Investment and Short term trading. It is okay to have short term well as long term shares in your portfolio. but have a balance. When you invest atleast look at 2 year horizon ( or much more). When you trade it can be days or just months.

Greed is the mother of evil. We want to make quickest profit as possible. You can follow others to blindly buy speculatives. You might win some but also you might loose bigger if you do not know what you are doing. Do not but at peak of a run. Example if you buy TWOD at Rs 20 and CIFL at RS 6 and GREG.W at Rs 15 you will have to wait a long time till next big run happens . This is the danger of speculatives. Also for them to reach those prices again will take considerable time or maybe never.

2) Know the different between fundamentals adn speculatives

Fundamentals companies have intrinsic value due to earning growth, dividend policy , assets good management. Even if they fall in short term they will bounce back and go higher in long term. ( Example JKH,DFCC, SAMP, NTB etc ) .

For speculatives we cannot guarantee the same. That is why some people have lost 90% due to greed. GREG.W I can say with 95% of probability that it will not hit Rs 100 again. Some people would have lost 90% of their investment in trading GREG,PCH etc. Do you know once GREG was at Rs 250+. PCH at Rs 30+ . I am not saying they can never reach those levels. But how long will it take?


For investments try to identify stocks that are trading below Market PE and NAV. Look at the history of the company. Have they been treating their share holders well with dividends, share bonuses etc? Do they have reputable management. You will have peace of mind with them.





I have lost 90% as I bought at peak in 2011. How do I recover?


If you hold the wrong shares you will never. Example I mentioned before. So best thing is to invest in something else and compound gains. Example :

Invest in share X. Say it run 40% and you think it has reached peak fundamental value. At that time you can sell. There is no rule to say investment have to be held forever ( contrary to Mr Buffet).

Next invest in share Y: It runs for 50%.

Do you see you investment has now doubled ? What if you invest and that run 50% again. Now you have tripled.

Okay if you patiently repeat this cycle , I just told you a secret to recover most of what you lost or make profit even.

I know it is easier said than done. Some times my greed has got the better of me also , but knowledge and experience is a weapon.


I think this is enough for now.





More reads
http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t27907-asi-will-hit-8000-buy-cxxx-txxx




I normally posted a topic every 1000th post.

http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t3932-message-to-new-comers-on-the-occasion-of-my-celebrating-4-months-1000-posts-at-the-forum?highlight=on the occasion of my

http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t13740-on-the-occasion-of-my-2000th-post?highlight=on the occasion

http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t21103-on-the-occasion-of-my-3000th-post




Finally as always

"Learn the basics, Invest not gamble, know your investment period, have Patience , have lesser Greed , know your entry and exit points and you will be a victor on the longer run at CSE"

Be ahead of the pack. Luck will favour the brave most times. All the best.

Slstock

Well said Sir.
Thanks a lot.

Good Read. Well said !

omg 5000 :O:O:O:O

u r grt sir

those posts are very worth,ur posts may worth around 6000 US$ to me

hehe,just added some value based on forum posting projects doing by freelancers.


gud luck sir

thanks . will read again & again.

Plenty have been burnt by fundamentals as well.

Regardless of fundamentals or not, the most important thing is the entry and exit price. Price graphs should be accompanied by volume graphs. Note the thin volume at low prices and high volume at high prices.

In a bull period - avoid high volume days on the stocks you trade

thanks for the replies gentleman.

Bond:

Define a fundamental first. One mistake we make is consider blue chips fundamentals always ( I made that mistake too. )

DFCC at RS 500? JKH at Rs 340. SPEN at Rs 200 were they fundamentals at that time? so buyinmg high would have paid the price.

I already said what share I would look for. Even if they fall now they won't fall to bits like some other.

"In a bull period - avoid high volume days on the stocks you trade "

this can work to you advantage also. Sometime the day following high volume can give you 10%

But we are talking trading now, which I do not want to get into as this is meant mainly for new comers.

Bond wrote:Plenty have been burnt by fundamentals as well.

Regardless of fundamentals or not, the most important thing is the entry and exit price. Price graphs should be accompanied by volume graphs. Note the thin volume at low prices and high volume at high prices.

In a bull period - avoid high volume days on the stocks you trade

Also let me point out one thing. When bull gets into full gear , if you sell today to buy cheaper in a week iIt might just not happen. You will miss the train.

This maybe mainly true for severely undervalued shares. Note buyers can come in only when volume is there and market is moving. Still quantity is not there and buyer do not come as the "Bear Burn" is in mind

There I just invented a new term "Bear Burn" .

Bear Burn meaning: relates to Skepticism and anticipation of the price will drop further.

Copyright Slstock.

Just to re read the following link regarding volume.
http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t11476-basic-volume-theory?highlight=volume

slstock wrote:thanks for the replies gentleman.

Bond:

Define a fundamental first. One mistake we make is consider blue chips fundamentals always ( I made that mistake too. )

DFCC at RS 500? JKH at Rs 340. SPEN at Rs 200 were they fundamentals at that time? so buyinmg high would have paid the price.

I already said what share I would look for. Even if they fall now they won't fall to bits like some other.

"In a bull period - avoid high volume days on the stocks you trade "

this can work to you advantage also. Sometime the day following high volume can give you 10%

But we are talking trading now, which I do not want to get into as this is meant mainly for new comers.

Bond wrote:Plenty have been burnt by fundamentals as well.

Regardless of fundamentals or not, the most important thing is the entry and exit price. Price graphs should be accompanied by volume graphs. Note the thin volume at low prices and high volume at high prices.

In a bull period - avoid high volume days on the stocks you trade

Salute you, slstock with thanksss......!!!

Bond wrote:Plenty have been burnt by fundamentals as well.

Regardless of fundamentals or not, the most important thing is the entry and exit price. Price graphs should be accompanied by volume graphs. Note the thin volume at low prices and high volume at high prices.

In a bull period - avoid high volume days on the stocks you trade

100% true...It is all about entry point & exit point.

@ SLstock ......Highly appreciate your service to this forum...

Congradulations slstock and thanks for your timely article.

Congratz.. Appreciate your valuable and genuine work

Congtardulation..! Eye opening article. Love this way of explaining Thx Slstock.

Thanks a lot for your grate contribution for the forum. Guys like you always encourage us to learn to invest. Please continue your good work. I normally don't miss one single post by you.

Good work ............ But a serious waste of time

@slstock, great contribution. How do u find time?. Are u full time for this equity forum?.

slstock you have done a great job. keep it up

Good article as always.

There are more you could share with us. I wish you will continuously guide us through out next years with such valued information's.

Thanks.

"Learn the basics, Invest not gamble, know your investment period, have Patience , have lesser Greed , know your entry and exit points and you will be a victor on the longer run at CSE"

Be ahead of the pack. Luck will favour the brave most times. All the best.

Slstock
Sir
Tks you very much
I am learning

Congratz.. Good post..

Fundamentals are sometimes fun-da-mantals.. UR correct, we bought blue ships in the past thinking that those have strong fundamentals. Whether they have or not, those were over-priced then. We've been paying premiums to buy those companies.
Any why would've us done that? We thought the future was bright and those would appreciate more and more.. The reality is none would go like that..
Every stock reacts to market situations, so we would've thought that..

Past is past, now that we know this, its better we select the stocks and do the valuations to justify the prices they trade.

Is JKH the only conglomerate in SL? Cant any other company be in the state of it in 5-10 years time?

Carry on the God work sir, God Bless u always

Good Luck Sir. Need 6000, 7000...comments also in future.
It’s like chairman’s review in annual reports.

Valuable advice as always.
Really appreciate your commitments towards the forum.
Wish you all the best.
God bless you.