Was today a follow-through day?

anubis · 1 Was today a follow-through day? Wed Aug 22, 2012 11:40 pm

anubis

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Let's say for a moment that we have seen the real market bottom (my personal belief is otherwise). If that is indeed the case, can we fit any of the bottom-picking strategies into ASI? (assuming the market trends upwards from now on).

Sometime back I think sriranga pointed to this article: http://www.learn-stock-options-trading.com/stock-market-bottom.html

According to this article, can we call today a "follow-through" day? Or may be we can fit a double-bottom?

Cheers!

anubis · 2 Re: Was today a follow-through day? Wed Aug 22, 2012 11:55 pm

anubis

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http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CSEALL:IND

Hmmm, hard to see a double bottom forming... scratch

Redbulls · 3 Re: Was today a follow-through day? Thu Aug 23, 2012 2:31 am

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Still room for bottom fishing.

Light of Hope · 4 Re: Was today a follow-through day? Thu Aug 23, 2012 8:04 am

Light of Hope

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Today is the day that I will decide if I'm holding or selling the stuff I bought last week. we need to keep an eye on the resistance levels.

worthiness · 5 Re: Was today a follow-through day? Thu Aug 23, 2012 9:11 am

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Can you please pass few resistance levels for readers information.

hariesha · 6 Re: Was today a follow-through day? Thu Aug 23, 2012 9:56 am

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When everybody tries to react on resistance levels those levels may fail. So best thing is trading, while going forward. It's safe and reliable. Take profits. They buy again.

Some may resist the upward move. So react accordingly.

anubis · 7 Re: Was today a follow-through day? Thu Aug 23, 2012 3:31 pm

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@Light of Hope: so what was your decision?

IMO, in the coming days (1 - 10) if we don't see a follow-through day (at least +50 points with good turnover), we can safely assume that this is not the long-awaited rally most were expecting.

Cheers!

Slstock · 8 Re: Was today a follow-through day? Thu Aug 23, 2012 3:38 pm

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Anubis,

This follow through concept was only extracted for the USA market. I personally have not done a study to see whether this is true to sri lankan market. Not sure anybody did.

As far as the market is concerned , yes we might have to take the future days performance to determine the medium term term. Today was not bad. The present trend and trader participation also has improved. But as our market is small and can be changed with few million $$ up or down , things are more unpredictable.

I addressed more stuff here
http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t20621-crucial-stage-for-short-term?highlight=short+term

Last edited by slstock on Thu Aug 23, 2012 3:44 pm; edited 1 time in total

anubis · 9 Re: Was today a follow-through day? Thu Aug 23, 2012 3:43 pm

anubis

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@slstock, thanks for the pointer!

My main concern was that, assuming the market picks up from now on, we should be able to fit some sort of a "bottom-indicator" pattern. The reason I say so is that I remember reading somewhere that almost all market recoveries corresponded to some sort of a "bottom-indicator" pattern (double bottom, counting, etc.).

However, no such pattern would fit into ASI in such a manner (if the market picks up from these levels). Then again, this is CSE (as you pointed)...

Let's wait and see what happens, I'm more positive on this being a fake rally (yeah, that's a nice way to be positive! Very Happy

).

Cheers!

Slstock · 10 Re: Was today a follow-through day? Thu Aug 23, 2012 3:48 pm

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We saw a 4730+ and then again ASI dipped to 4800 couple of time I think but did not dip to 4730. So there is some indication of a bottom if we consider 4730.

But I too have learnt too much technicals or fundamentals does not work at CSE. Sometimes it has a mind of its own . We saw when world markets went up we go down and opposite also.
Welcome to the mysterious CSE. Wonder whther it is a lady. No offence ladies.

Overall , market behaviour changed somewhat from some time ago.
http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t18928-do-you-see-a-slighlt-positive-difference?highlight=can+you+see+a+difference

So it is better than before.

anubis · 11 Re: Was today a follow-through day? Thu Aug 23, 2012 3:53 pm

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http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CSEALL:IND/chart

If ASI goes above 5050 in the short term (current run) and plunges back into 4750 levels and then trend upwards.... we would get a double bottom... Basketball

(but this guessing is premature at this point)

Cheers!

Slstock · 12 Re: Was today a follow-through day? Thu Aug 23, 2012 4:06 pm

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anubis wrote:http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CSEALL:IND/chart

If ASI goes above 5050 in the short term (current run) and plunges back into 4750 levels and then trend upwards.... we would get a double bottom...

(but this guessing is premature at this point)

Cheers!

I do not know exact numbers are taken to count double bottoms. So far 4730+ and 4820+ have been close.

Sometimes if we wait for all these technicals the bus is missed. I am not sure whether some shares which hit lowest in June will go there ever again.

But if ASI doesdown BUKI/CARS holders will need to worry. If these shares correct another 15-20% ASI hitting 4730 will be a piece of cake. But following ASI number only will not tell the true picture of your portfolio.

hariesha · 13 Re: Was today a follow-through day? Thu Aug 23, 2012 5:11 pm

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slstock wrote:

anubis wrote:http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CSEALL:IND/chart

If ASI goes above 5050 in the short term (current run) and plunges back into 4750 levels and then trend upwards.... we would get a double bottom...

(but this guessing is premature at this point)

Cheers!

Sometimes if we wait for all these technicals the bus is missed. I am not sure whether some shares which hit lowest in June will go there ever again.

But if ASI doesdown BUKI/CARS holders will need to worry. If these shares correct another 15-20% ASI hitting 4730 will be a piece of cake. But following ASI number only will not tell the true picture of your portfolio.

I don't know where this rally will go. I don't care either. As I adjust according to trends.

But in TA there's no concept as exact double bottoms. And not practical either. We already have a double bottom formation. But I don't know it will go up from here or make a 3rd bottom.

All depends on news and sentiments and TA follows. When you are buying for investment, study and buy. Good shares will always give good returns. For trading, go with trends. For positive news start accumulating shares. If you are satisfied with the return, dispose.

hariesha · 14 Re: Was today a follow-through day? Thu Aug 23, 2012 5:18 pm

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One more thing, charts give different formations with time frames. If we consider the same chart above, when we look at three months chart it gives a different picture, a clear double bottom. But if you take 1 year chart, to make a double bottom, it should hit above 5500 and come back.

I think charts are good to analyzed what had happened.