Decisive Factor

klpfernando · 1 Decisive Factor Mon Oct 22, 2012 6:10 pm

klpfernando

Manager - Equity Analytics

Posts : 109
Equity Stars : 4898
Reputation : 3
Join date : 2011-06-02

What will be the next decisive factor to push the market above 6000?
1.next budget
2.central bank bring down the interest rates
3.encouraging quarterly results
If we are lucky enough all 3 could take place in this November .what do you think?

Slstock · 2 Re: Decisive Factor Mon Oct 22, 2012 6:16 pm

Slstock

Director - Equity Analytics

Posts : 6610
Equity Stars : 13374
Reputation : 1158
Join date : 2011-01-22

1, Budget : Budget runs usually can happen ( not guranteed but in past 2 years there was some interest

2.central bank bring down the interest rates : I don;t think any big difference should
happen soon

3.encouraging quarterly results : Only for selected companies.

klpfernando · 3 Re: Decisive Factor Mon Oct 22, 2012 6:33 pm

klpfernando

Manager - Equity Analytics

Posts : 109
Equity Stars : 4898
Reputation : 3
Join date : 2011-06-02

slstock I really appreciate your effort to keep this forum alive .

worthiness · 4 Re: Decisive Factor Mon Oct 22, 2012 6:50 pm

worthiness

Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

Posts : 2577
Equity Stars : 8943
Reputation : 115
Join date : 2011-04-08

Authorities are aware of the necessity of changing fiscal policies for better economic outlook with heavy pressure from international funds.

a) Budget- it is possible to provide more concessions on export oriented enterprises & leisure sector which boost the bottom line.

b) Interest rates- Minor revisions are likely as single digit inflation is politically advantageous.

c)Quarterly results-many companies have launched painful cost cutting program that partly set off high operational & financing cost. Again, banking & leisure sector got high chance of showing good results.

Counters of which financial year ending in December with better performance may push the prices up.....those who got the opportunity for insider information would be the great winners.....

klpfernando · 5 Re: Decisive Factor Mon Oct 22, 2012 8:12 pm

klpfernando

Manager - Equity Analytics

Posts : 109
Equity Stars : 4898
Reputation : 3
Join date : 2011-06-02

Next budget-I think president is keen to see a vibrant capital market so as finance minister he could bring some proposals to help market.As worthiness mentioned exports will be encourage.At the same time they will try to discourage imports.So we should study which counters will be benefited in cse.

quarterly results-I think some exporters will show notable exchange gains in this quarter.

central bank- as slstock mentioned it could be too early to bring down interest rates

LateTackle · 6 Re: Decisive Factor Mon Oct 22, 2012 11:45 pm

LateTackle

Senior Equity Analytic

Posts : 69
Equity Stars : 4801
Reputation : 3
Join date : 2011-06-04
Location : ABU DHABI

Any chance of vehicle tax being reduced ?

Rapaport · 7 Re: Decisive Factor Tue Oct 23, 2012 12:11 am

Rapaport

Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

Posts : 681
Equity Stars : 5733
Reputation : 55
Join date : 2011-02-01

SL sees no need to adjust policy rates

Sri Lanka's central bank sees no need to change its policy rates in the near future and it has reduced credit growth to the desired level, Governor Ajith Nivard Cabraal said.

"Our overall policies are working in the way we had projected and wanted it to work," Cabraal told Reuters on Monday. "So I think there is no need for us to make any further adjustments in the near future."

Cabraal was speaking ahead of the Monetary Board's October meeting, on Monday, to set policy rates. The bank will announce its monetary policy stance at 0200 GMT Tuesday.

Sri Lanka raised rates twice in the first four months of the year to nearly three-year highs and imposed tough credit controls and a flexible exchange rate to deal with trade and balance-of-payments deficits from 2011.

In February, the central bank limited credit growth to a maximum of 23 percent in 2012 from 35 percent last year. In 2011, the policy of a defended rupee and lower interest rates fueled cheap credit and a huge import bill, resulting in a record trade gap.

"Credit growth has come down to the level that we had wanted. Our view is it will be resting in that exact spot we had projected," Cabraal said without giving data on recent credit growth.

Cabraal also said the central bank, which is concerned about future inflationary pressures does not need to cut policy rates at the moment.

Keeping the rate unchanged "seems to be appropriate," he said adding that the central bank is looking at 8-8.5 percent annual inflation by end-2012.
The island nation's economic growth is projected to slow to 6.8 percent from last year's record 8.3 percent due to tough policy measures and conditions in Europe, Sri Lanka's top export destination.

Early this year, the central bank had estimated 8.5 percent growth in 2013, but Cabraal said this is too ambitious.

"The global conditions are such that it would be somewhat tough to pitch for a growth of that nature. But certainly above 7.5 percent is something that we could safely work towards," Cabraal said.

He also predicted that the rupee, which has fallen 14.8 percent since a 3 percent devaluation last November, will appreciate and settle around 125 per U.S. dollar as expected earlier due to expected inflows. On Monday, it was trading around 129.75 to the U.S. dollar.

"We are seeing some fresh inflows due to come in to the stock market, property market, and FDI (foreign direct investment)," he said without elaborating on the numbers.

The governor said he believes it is "pretty realistic" to think that the rupee could settle around 125 to the dollar. (Reuters)

MONDAY, 22 OCTOBER 2012 19:00

http://www.dailymirror.lk/news/22882-sl-sees-no-need-to-adjust-policy-rates.html

Rohan Perera · 8 Re: Decisive Factor Tue Oct 23, 2012 1:41 am

Rohan Perera

Stock Trader

Posts : 7
Equity Stars : 4234
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2012-10-15
Age : 49
Location : Colombo

klpfernando
Equity Analytic

Sorry to disappoint you. None of the three points you mentioned will lift the market. An honest and a transparent regulatory regime and stable fiscal and monetary policy will help. Changing tax structures annually will not instill confidence into investors, but help attract only a few fly-by-night types looking for a laundry to clean their dirty money. No prizes for guessing the biggest black money laundry in Asia, next to Dubai.

traderathome · 9 Re: Decisive Factor Tue Oct 23, 2012 2:49 am

traderathome

Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

Posts : 2485
Equity Stars : 7191
Reputation : 133
Join date : 2012-02-26
Age : 50
Location : Abu Dhabi

klpfernando wrote:What will be the next decisive factor to push the market above 6000?
1.next budget
2.central bank bring down the interest rates
3.encouraging quarterly results
If we are lucky enough all 3 could take place in this November .what do you think?

all 3

klpfernando · 10 Re: Decisive Factor Tue Oct 23, 2012 2:33 pm

klpfernando

Manager - Equity Analytics

Posts : 109
Equity Stars : 4898
Reputation : 3
Join date : 2011-06-02

Rohan Perera wrote:klpfernando
Equity Analytic

Sorry to disappoint you. None of the three points you mentioned will lift the market. An honest and a transparent regulatory regime and stable fiscal and monetary policy will help. Changing tax structures annually will not instill confidence into investors, but help attract only a few fly-by-night types looking for a laundry to clean their dirty money. No prizes for guessing the biggest black money laundry in Asia, next to Dubai.

thanks rohan.
If, not transparent regulatory regime and changing tax structures annually ,hurt investor confident so much how do we get big investment into hotel and telecom sectors.How did we get 34 billion into cse so far this year.I do agree these things hurts investors to some degree but they have better reason to come to sri lanka like
1 our location
2 best in the global ease of doing business ranking in the south asian region
3 political stability
4 well educated work force
5 better security in the region
Black money-my personal view-better we have a laundry in the country than in Dubai or in switz.