Reason for green market?

The market recovered from a bad dip and most shares were showing positive trends today. what could be the reason for this? I'm thinking the statement made by Robert Blake. refer to the link below for further information.

http://www.dailymirror.lk/top-story/11223-us-rejects-reports-on-regime-change.html

optimistic wrote:The market recovered from a bad dip and most shares were showing positive trends today. what could be the reason for this? I'm thinking the statement made by Robert Blake. refer to the link below for further information.

http://www.dailymirror.lk/top-story/11223-us-rejects-reports-on-regime-change.html

Whose Blake? is he and investor or a trader? which company did he buy into?

The market moved up today because the Milanka bounced up from the 200 day moving average. Now I don't believe in the indices all that much. But the Milanka gives better indication than the rediculous ASI. Even so some of the gains could still be attributed to manipulation rather than genuine buying pressure.

Robert Blake was the former ambassador to US for Sri Lanka and now he holds the position as the US Assistant Secretary of state for South Asia. he may not be an investor or a trader, but as I see it, the CSE has been very sensitive to news rather than fundamentals or technicals. and I'm not very knowledgeable as far as technicals are concerned, but knowing you, I would not rule out your expert view. also I have in no way claimed 100% accuracy to my statement, it was just an expression of opinion.

optimistic wrote:Robert Blake was the former ambassador to US for Sri Lanka and now he holds the position as the US Assistant Secretary of state for South Asia. he may not be an investor or a trader, but as I see it, the CSE has been very sensitive to news rather than fundamentals or technicals. and I'm not very knowledgeable as far as technicals are concerned, but knowing you, I would not rule out your expert view. also I have in no way claimed 100% accuracy to my statement, it was just an expression of opinion.

I appologise for my response being too sarcastic. I didn't mean to hurt your feelings. But I must say that the downtrend really doesn't have anything to do with politics. We are in a serious bear market. With hind sight it can be said that the bearish period started on Oct 04 of 2011

SLTL.N0000

Prev.Close - 55.10

Open - 59.00 ( RS 59.00 100Qty at 09:30:03 am )

thats ok my friend. no hard feelings taken. all of us are frustrated of this bear market. so there could be all sorts of theories formed to explain the direction of the market. i remember the bloodiest day of all. that was a week after october 4th 2010, which was on the 12th of october 2010 where both ASI and MPI came crashing. but this has been slowly killing us.

I don't believe there is a effect of former US ambassador' statement that much for CSE.But there was a positive rumor about UN fund clearance for srilanka.This will strength the economy and there is a effect to the CSE too.
As far as i concern banking and finance sector shares will fly.

tubal wrote:

optimistic wrote:Robert Blake was the former ambassador to US for Sri Lanka and now he holds the position as the US Assistant Secretary of state for South Asia. he may not be an investor or a trader, but as I see it, the CSE has been very sensitive to news rather than fundamentals or technicals. and I'm not very knowledgeable as far as technicals are concerned, but knowing you, I would not rule out your expert view. also I have in no way claimed 100% accuracy to my statement, it was just an expression of opinion.

I appologise for my response being too sarcastic. I didn't mean to hurt your feelings. But I must say that the downtrend really doesn't have anything to do with politics. We are in a serious bear market. With hind sight it can be said that the bearish period started on Oct 04 of 2011

I respect both of your view. It is true that we are in a bear phase, but the question is WHY ???
If it is not due to political reason then what are possible reasons..

Is it due to

credit clearance?
High PE of Market?
Undue fear caused by UN?
lack of liquidity created by changed margin rule?
manipulators wants the market to come down ?

wiki wrote:

tubal wrote:

optimistic wrote:Robert Blake was the former ambassador to US for Sri Lanka and now he holds the position as the US Assistant Secretary of state for South Asia. he may not be an investor or a trader, but as I see it, the CSE has been very sensitive to news rather than fundamentals or technicals. and I'm not very knowledgeable as far as technicals are concerned, but knowing you, I would not rule out your expert view. also I have in no way claimed 100% accuracy to my statement, it was just an expression of opinion.

I appologise for my response being too sarcastic. I didn't mean to hurt your feelings. But I must say that the downtrend really doesn't have anything to do with politics. We are in a serious bear market. With hind sight it can be said that the bearish period started on Oct 04 of 2011

I respect both of your view. It is true that we are in a bear phase, but the question is WHY ???
If it is not due to political reason then what are possible reasons..

Is it due to

credit clearance?
High PE of Market?
Undue fear caused by UN?
lack of liquidity created by changed margin rule?
manipulators wants the market to come down ?

It's reason number 2 on your list. Reason number 1 acted as the trigger. That's the way it is with markets. Markets can sustain rediculously high prices for a long time and they can sustain rediculously low prices for a long time. What triggered the downtrend may have been credit clearence but it's inaccurate to say that credit clearence is the cause.

The bearish phase started on Oct 10. I was ready for it at the time but even I didn't think it was the start of the bear. It is only in recent weeks that I have come to realize that the bear started running on Oct 04, 2010

Prices are still declining and I wouldn't say they are at rediculous levels yet (except for one or two counters which have declined faster than the market, or their earnings have grown tremoundously since Oct 2010)

As for UN report, I don't think there is a single member here who has actually read it. And I think you can say the same about foreign investors, they just don't care about politics. The less we talk about the UN report the sooner it will be forgotten by everyone.

As for manipulators, what they are trying to do is to show that the market is rising. I have addressed this in several threads. The February peak on the ASI was a bogus peak created purely through manipulations. The manipulators are trying to artificially prop up the market through illiquid shares and also with SLTL so that they can off load their other shares.

@ tubal
thank you for your valuable comment

What my thoughts are

market PE will come down with IPOs and improved earnings of companies..

Still there is credit to be cleared unless they arranged marging
trading facility with a marging provider (dont know how much but there is) or regulators may have to amend the rule again.

Regarding UN report, though we are trying to forget it government using it to entertain the Gallery (but big fish may act differently).

Is there a way to predict when this bear phase will end or do we have to just wait and see ?

Tubal,

you said that the bearish period began on the 4th of october 2010. Then what about the bull run we experienced with the dawn of 2011 until mid february? was this artificial to draw more investors when all the foreign investors were selling and exiting the market? i've been hearing that EPF has been the culprit behind new year bull run. would love to know your intel about this.

optimistic wrote:Tubal,

you said that the bearish period began on the 4th of october 2010. Then what about the bull run we experienced with the dawn of 2011 until mid february? was this artificial to draw more investors when all the foreign investors were selling and exiting the market? i've been hearing that EPF has been the culprit behind new year bull run. would love to know your intel about this.

That wasn't a bull run, it was a retracement to the bear. The bear ran too fast and the prices dropped too fast, so it corrected to more realistic levels. However about 200 points in that upswing came from BUKI, CARS and the palm oil shares rising to absurd levels. Bukit in particularly went up by 50% even though earnings didn't grow at all. So in reality the feb peak would have been much lower than the Oct 1st peak (if not for this push). If you look at the MPI it clearly shows that the feb peak is lower