Sri Lanka Economy

Sri Lanka climbs in misery index in 2019 after currency collapse

ECONOMYNEXT – Sri Lanka’s economic misery has increase in 2019, according to an annual global index compiled by a Johns Hopkins economist Steve Hanke, as the island’s growth slipped and inflation and interest rates climbed after the latest currency collapse.

Sri Lanka’s misery index score climbed to 17.9 points in 2019 from 16 in 2018, according to the latest index published in National Review, a US based publication.

The rupee collapsed from 153 to 182 to the US dollar in 2018, amid liquidity injections to keep down rates.

In 2018, Sri Lanka’s misery index number fell to 16 points from 18.9 points in 2017 as the economy recovered from a previous currency collapse.

Sri Lanka’s tourism sector was also hit by suicide bombings in April 2019.

Hanke’s Annual Misery Index (HAMI) is compiled by adding unemployment, inflation and bank lending rates, and substracting the percentage change in real gross domestic per capita.

The original misery index had been compiled by economist Arthur Okun to provide then US President Lyndon Johnson an easy to understand view of the economy, using only inflation and unemployment.

It had then been modified by economist Robert Barrow of Harvard, which had been further refined by Hanke.

Sri Lanka’s misery index has been climbing since monetary instability worsened after 2015, when the index was around 15.

Sri Lanka’s unemployment relatively low and stable and lending rates has usually been the main driver of index changes in recent years.

Sri Lanka place worsened to the 31 st most miserable countries out of 95 in 2019, from 35 in 2018.

The relative ranking changes depending on how other countries perform. The relative ranking may worsen depending on how others perform, even if there is an absolute improvement in the index number.

In 2019, conditions in Hong Kong, a country with a high degree of monetary stability and usually a strong performer also plunged.

Countries that experience increases in the index usually see government’s change, while those that to not or improve, find it easier to get re-elected.

“Japan takes the prize as the world’s least miserable country, moving up from the third-least miserable in 2018,” writes Hanke.

“It’s no surprise that prime minister Shinzo Abe remains firmly in the saddle.”

“Hungary delivers yet another stunner. It ranks as the second-least miserable country in the world.

While the European Union and the international elites have thrown everything they can at Prime Minister Viktor Orban, it’s easy to see why he commands a strong following at home. After all, the Magyars held the second-happiest spot in the world in 2018 as well.”

Among the ‘most miserable’ countries the index are countries with the worst soft-pegged central banks in the world, which are found in Latin America.

Predictably Venezuela ranked first in 2019, with 7,459 points with inflation driving misery.

Argentina came second with 1,361 points. Iran followed with 75 points.

“Venezuela holds the inglorious title of the most miserable country in the world in 2019, as it did in 2018, 2017, 2016, and 2015,” writes Hanke.

“Inflation, while still the world’s highest, came down. On the other hand, the unemployment rate surged to 24 percent from 14.9 percent in 2018, while GDP per capita took a dive from -16.5 percent per year to -32.2 percent per year.

“Argentina held down the second-most miserable spot after yet another peso crisis,” Hanke said. “Since its founding, Argentina has endured numerous economic crises.

“Most can be laid at the feet of domestic mismanagement and currency problems (read: currency collapses). Such crises have occurred in 1876, 1890, 1914, 1930, 1952, 1958, 1967, 1975, 1985, 1989, 2001, 2018, and 2019, to name but a few.

“Until Argentina dumps the beleaguered peso and replaces it with the U.S. dollar, it will be, well . . . miserable.”

Currency crises have come thick and fast after a soft-pegged central bank was set up in 1934. (Colombo/Mar02/2020)

https://economynext.com/sri-lanka-climbs-in-misery-index-in-2019-after-currency-collapse-54809/

Rupee is life time low today in the black market.

Sri Lanka could finalize billion dollar plus China loan within weeks
Thursday March 5, 2020 12:48:33

ECONOMYEXT – Sri Lanka is making good progress with loans of more than a billion US dollars loan from China Development Bank, which may be finalized within weeks, Central Bank Deputy Governor Nandalal Weerasinghe said.

Discussions centered around a loan of 1 to 2 billion US dollars, but could be around 1.3 billion US dollars, he said.

The loan could be finalized within weeks, he said and could amount to around 1.3 billion US dollars.

The loan would be within the borrowing limits approved in a vote on account up to April, Weerasinghe said.

Sri Lanka’s budget deficit is expected to rise to 7.5-7.9 percent of the gross domestic product in 2020, after value-added taxes were slashed.

A cash injection from China would help keep domestic interest rates in check.

Data showed that the government borrowing from the banking system was 120 billion rupees in January. (Colombo/Mar05/2020)

There are 6 major scenarios which i have analysed for the foreign exit. No 1 reason is expecting the further rupee depreciation. It suppose to be 191 against USD. So who ever exit now, they can take more $ back rather further depreciation of rupee. 2.foreign market has big opportunity cost due to attractive prices in recent downtrend. 3. Sri lanka government debt and doubt of gov income. 4. Government international policy, 5.

I NOT AGAINST THE GOVT LAST NOVEMBER BUDGET NOT SUBMITTED DUE p e, AFTER ELECTION NEW GOVT APPOINTED. NOW AGAIN G E NO BUDGET EVEN A SUPPLEMENTARY CANNOT PASS DUE TO NOT HAVING 113 S IN GOVT. MR RECENTLY TOLD "i TOLD NO NEED GOVT UNTIL G E.? WHO WISH THIS GOVT FORMED? UNTIL NEXT BUDGET GOVT FACE DIFFICULTY ECONOMY GO DOWN FURTHER

The free-market economy of Sri Lanka is worth $88.9 billion by nominal gross domestic product (GDP) and $291.5 billion by purchasing power parity (PPP). The country has experienced an annual growth of 6.4 percent from 2003 to 2012, well above its regional peers. With an income per capita of 12,811 PPP Dollars (2018 World Bank) or 4,103 nominal US dollars, Sri Lankais the second wealthiest nation in South Asia after the Maldives and is an upper middle income nation The main economic sectors of the country are tourism, tea export, apparel, textile, rice production and other agricultural products. In addition to these economic sectors, overseas employment contributes highly in foreign exchange: 90% of expatriate Sri Lankans reside in the Middle East.^[
Sri Lanka has met the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) target of halving extreme poverty and is on track to meet most of the other MDGs, outperforming other South Asian countries. Sri Lanka experienced a major decline in poverty between 2002 and 2009 – from 23 percent to 9 percent of the population. Despite this pockets of poverty continue to exist. An estimated 9 percent of Sri Lankans who are no longer classified as poor live within 20 percent of the poverty line and are, thus, vulnerable to shocks which could cause them to fall back into poverty. Since the end of the three-decade civil war, Sri Lanka has begun focusing on long-term strategic and structural development challenges as it strives to transition to an upper middle income country. Sri Lanka has one of the lowest tax-to-GDP ratios in the world, and creating jobs for the bottom 40% has become a challenge. Sri Lanka also faces a challenges in social inclusion, governance and sustainability.
According to government policies and economic reforms stated by Prime Minister and Minister of National Policy and economic affairs Ranil Wickremesinghe, Sri Lanka plans to create Western Region Megapolis a Megapolis in the western province to promote economic growth. The creation of several business and technology development areas island-wide specialised in various sectors, as well as tourism zones are also being planned.^{[28][29][30][31]} But Sri Lanka has recently been facing a danger of falling into economic malaise, with increasing debt levels and a political crisis which saw the country's debt rating being dropped.

• 1Economic history
  
• 2Macro-economic trend
  
• 3Economy
  
  
  
  • 3.1GDP growth for 2018 and 2019 calendar years
    
  • 3.2Inflation by June 2018
    
  • 3.3Interest rates - 1 year T bill market rate by June 2019
    
  
  
  
• 4External sector
  
  
  
  • 4.1Trade account issues
    
  • 4.2Capital account
    
  • 4.3Overall balance (BOP)
    
  
  
  
• 5Financial institutions
  
• 6Economic infrastructure and resources
  
  
  
  • 6.1Transportation and roads
    
  • 6.2Energy
    
  • 6.3Skilled Labor
    
  
  
  
• 7Economic sectors
  
  
  
  • 7.1Tourism
    
  • 7.2Tea industry
    
  • 7.3Apparel and textile industry
    
  • 7.4Agriculture
    
  • 7.5IT industry
    
  • 7.6Mining
    
  
  
  
• 8Major companies
  
• 9Global economic relations
  
  
  
  • 9.1Credit rating and commercial borrowing
    
  • 9.2Foreign assistance
    
  • 9.3Debt and IMF assistance
    
  
  
  
• 10See also
  
• 11References
  
• 12Notes
  
• 13External links
  

Since becoming independent from Britain in February 1948, the economy of the country has been affected by natural disasters such as the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and a number of insurrections, such as the 1971, the 1987–89 and the 1983–2009 civil war. Between 1977 and 1994 the country came under UNP rule in which under President J.R Jayawardana Sri Lanka began to shift away from a socialist orientation in 1977. Since then, the government has been deregulating, privatizing, and opening the economy to international competition. In 2001, Sri Lanka faced bankruptcy, with debt reaching 101% of GDP. The impending currency crisis was averted after the country reached a hasty ceasefire agreement with the LTTE and brokered substantial foreign loans. After 2004 the UPFA government has concentrated on mass production of goods for domestic consumption such as rice, grain and other agricultural products.^[33] however twenty five years of civil war slowed economic growth,^{[citation needed]} diversification and liberalisation, and the political group Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) uprisings, especially the second in the early 1980s, also caused extensive upheavals.^[34]
Following the quelling of the JVP insurrection, increased privatization, economic reform, and a stress on export-oriented growth helped improve the economic performance, increasing GDP growth to 7% in 1993.
Economic growth has been uneven in the ensuing years as the economy faced a multitude of global and domestic economic and political challenges. Overall, average annual GDP growth was 5.2% over 1991–2000.
In 2001, however, GDP growth was negative 1.4%--the first contraction since independence. The economy was hit by a series of global and domestic economic problems and affected by terrorist attacks in Sri Lanka and the United States. The crises also exposed the fundamental policy failures and structural imbalances in the economy and the need for reforms. The year ended in parliamentary elections in December, which saw the election of United National Party to Parliament, while Sri Lanka Freedom Partyretained the Presidency.
During the short lived peace process from 2002 to 2004, the economy benefited from lower interest rates, a recovery in domestic demand, increased tourist arrivals, a revival of the stock exchange, and increased foreign direct investment (FDI). In 2002, the economy experienced a gradual recovery. During this period Sri Lanka has been able to reduce defense expenditures and begin to focus on getting its large, public sector debt under control. In 2002, economic growth reached 4%, aided by strong service sectorgrowth. The agricultural sector of the economy staged a partial recovery. Total FDI inflows during 2002 were about $246 million^[35]
The Mahinda Rajapakse government halted the privatization process and launched several new companies as well as re-nationalising previous state owned enterprises, one of which the courts declared that privatizationis null and void.^[36] Some state-owned corporations became overstaffed and less efficient, making huge losses with series of frauds being uncovered in them and nepotism rising.^[37] During this time EU revoked GSP plus preferential tariffs from Sri Lanka due to alleged human rights violations, which cost about US$500 million a year.^[38][39]
The resumption of the civil-war in 2005 led to a steep increase defense expenditures. The increased violence and lawlessness also prompted some donor countries to cut back on aid to the country.[1][2].
A sharp rise in world petroleum prices combined with economic fallout from the civil war led to inflation that peaked 20%. However, as the civil war ended in May 2009 the economy started to grow at a higher rate of 8.0% in the year 2010 and reached 9.1% in 2012 mostly due to the boom in non-tradable sectors. However the boom didn't last and the GDP growth for 2013 fell to 3.4% in 2013 and only slightly recovered to 4.5% in 2014.^{[40][41][42][43]}
In 2016 the government succeeded in lifting an EU ban on Sri Lankan fish products which resulted in fish exports to EU rising by 200% and in 2017 improving human rights conditions resulted in the European Commission proposing to restore GSP plus facility to Sri Lanka.^{[29][30][44][45]} Sri Lanka's tax revenues per GDP also increased from 10% in 2014 which was the lowest in nearly two decades to 12.3% in 2015^[46] Despite reforms, Sri Lanka was listed among countries with the highest risk for investors by Bloomberg.^[47]

The chart below summarizes the trend of Sri Lanka's gross domestic product at market prices.^[48] by the International Monetary Fund with figures in millions of Sri Lankan Rupees.

































[th]Year[/th][th]Gross Domestic Product[/th][th]US Dollar Exchange[/th]

1980	66,167	16.53 Sri Lankan Rupees
1985	162,375	27.20 Sri Lankan Rupees
1990	321,784	40.06 Sri Lankan Rupees
1995	667,772	51.25 Sri Lankan Rupees
2000	1,257,637	77.00 Sri Lankan Rupees
2005	2,363,669	100.52 Sri Lankan Rupees
2016	6,718,000	145.00 Sri Lankan Rupees

For purchasing power parity comparisons, the US Dollar is exchanged at 113.4 Sri Lankan Rupees only.
The following table shows the main economic indicators in 1980–2017.^[49]


























[th]Year[/th][th]1980[/th][th]1985[/th][th]1990[/th][th]1995[/th][th]2000[/th][th]2005[/th][th]2006[/th][th]2007[/th][th]2008[/th][th]2009[/th][th]2010[/th][th]2011[/th][th]2012[/th][th]2013[/th][th]2014[/th][th]2015[/th][th]2016[/th][th]2017[/th]

GDP in $ (PPP)	16.58 Bln.	27.43 Bln.	37.74 Bln.	56.28 Bln.	83.03 Bln.	112.59 Bln.	124.94 Bln.	136.99 Bln.	147.99 Bln.	154.39 Bln.	168.80 Bln.	186.76 Bln.	207.60 Bln.	218.11 Bln.	233.01 Bln.	247.37 Bln.	261.72 Bln.	274.72 Bln.
GDP per capita in $ (PPP)	1,135	1,772	2,320	3,257	4,496	5,739	6,319	6,874	7,309	7,540	8,164	8,949	10,164	10,599	11,220	11,798	12,343	12,811
GDP growth (real)	5.8%	5.0%	6.2%	6.1%	8.4%	6.2%	7.7%	6.8%	6.0%	3.5%	8.0%	8.4%	9.1%	3.4%	5.0%	5.0%	4.5%	3.1%
Inflation (in Percent)	26.1%	1.5%	21.5%	7.7%	6.2%	11.0%	10.0%	15.8%	9.6%	3.4%	6.3%	6.7%	7.5%	6.9%	2.8%	2.2%	4.0%	6.5%
Government debt (Percentage of GDP)	...	...	82%	80%	82%	79%	77%	74%	71%	75%	72%	71%	70%	72%	72%	78%	80%	79%

In 1977, Colombo abandoned statist economic policies and its import substitution trade policy for market-oriented policies and export-oriented trade.
Sri Lanka's most dynamic industries now are food processing, textiles and apparel, food and beverages, telecommunications, and insurance and banking.
By 1996 plantation crops made up only 20% of exports (compared with 93% in 1970), while textiles and garments accounted for 63%. GDP grew at an annual average rate of 5.5% throughout the 1990s until a drought and a deteriorating security situation lowered growth to 3.8% in 1996.
The economy rebounded in 1997–98 with growth of 6.4% and 4.7% – but slowed to 3.7% in 1999. For the next round of reforms, the central bank of Sri Lanka recommends that Colombo expand market mechanisms in nonplantation agriculture, dismantle the government's monopoly on wheat imports, and promote more competition in the financial sector.
Pre 2009 there was a continuing cloud over the economy the civil war and fighting between the Government of Sri Lanka and LTTE. However the war ended with a resounding victory for the Sri Lankan Government on 19 May 2009 with the total elimination of LTTE.

2018E: 4.5%, 2019E: 4.8%
Following a real GDP expansion of 3.1% in 2017, the economy is however anticipated to be in the "negative output gap" territory in 2018E and 2019E (i.e. below its potential output of 5.25% - estimated by the IMF)
Global Environment not likely to assist in reducing the Negative Output Gap of Sri Lanka
Even though the CBSL tried to adopt a soft monetary policy by early April 2018 to reduce the output gap of the Sri Lankan economy, the chances of the Regulator opting for further policy interest rate cuts seem to be limited at this juncture, given hawkish approach of the FED in the near term (as there could be a potential capital flight from domestic markets as already seen with the domestic fixed income market's foreign holding). The expected FED rate (at least more than a couple in 2H2018E) hikes are anticipated to continue to reduce foreign participation in the domestic fixed income markets as seen during previous rate hikes of the FED.
Climatic Change Impact on South Asia to Hinder Agri allied output in the Short to Medium Term
Another reason why the Sri Lankan (real GDP) output is likely to be low in the near to medium term is low absolute output expected from Agriculture and Agri-allied manufacturing processes. There was a flood in May 2018 (followed by floods in May 2016 and May 2017), and based on the World Bank's recent Annual Reports, world climatic change related impact may likely result in annual floods and / or droughts for the South Asian region in the near to medium term (that includes Sri Lanka).
Investment Environment and Sustainable Revenue allied Limitations
Sri Lanka's investment to GDP ratio (average for past five years) hovers ~ 31% which is made up of 24% Private Sector Investment, 5% Public Investment (or Government Capex) and 2% via Foreign Direct Investment (FDIs). For an economy to reach a sustainable productive capacity (or real GDP growth rate) equivalent to 6% - 7%, the investment to GDP ratio has to at least increase to the level of ~34% - 35%, which requires an increase in the said investments level. Given Sri Lanka's natural savings rate of ~23% - 24%, private sector investment may continue to remain at 24% levels at least in the near term. Given Government of Sri Lanka's (GoSL) commitment to contain fiscal deficits in the near term, Public investment in GoSL' s best case will be at ~5% level in the short to medium term. This leaves room only for one area of focus in the near term, if Sri Lanka needs to increase its potential output level, which is FDIs. For this to improve, few indices like the "doing business index (Sri Lanka stood at 111 for 2018 which deteriorated its rank from 85th position during 2014)", the overall tariff structure & allied reforms and infrastructure project execution pace (to increase economic efficiency) play a key role. However, increasing FDI level to 5% - 6% in the medium term may require fast pacing the matters mentioned above.
From a sustainable revenue point of view, Sri Lanka has continued to perform low, given its declining Export to GDP ratio, which was at 33% in 2000, that deteriorated to 15% in 2014 which has now (by end of 2017) further deteriorated to 12%, emphasizing the fact that policies by the successive Governments during past few decades have not helped in increasing the country's sustainable revenue. A classic example for this is, during 1992, Sri Lanka's absolute Export Value was on par with countries like Vietnam and Bangladesh (at US$2bn), which has only grown to a shade below US$12bn by end of 2017 (compared to Vietnam's US$214bn and Bangladesh's US$36bn for 2017)

Head line CCPI and NCPI will hover at 6% by 30 June 2019
Even though the Government did not adopt the fuel pricing formula, the Government took action to increase domestically controlled Petrol and Diesel prices, that will eventually increase non-financial SOE gains (which were in the red zone up to 2015) in the near term. This reform (even though, it is a spot action) and the anticipated adoption of the electricity pricing reform or a similar adjustment to electricity prices by end of September 2018 (as agreed with IMF's reform agenda for Sri Lanka), may transfer Ceylon Petroleum Corporation - CPC and the Ceylon Electricity Board - CEB (two of the top three loss making SOEs – other being Sri Lankan air lines) in to the green zone (profits), in SOE financials.
These changes may however, result in upward inflationary pressures in the short to medium term which will also be further slightly stimulated by supply side shocks anticipated via adverse weather related mishaps in the near term.
However, given the tighter monetary approach in the world economy, commodity prices may likely ease at least commencing 2019, which will eventually help sustain imported inflation to the country. As a result, inflation in Sri Lanka could be possibly contained at around 6% by mid-2019.

12 Month T bill to be at 10% by 30 June 2019
The CBSL has reduced its T bill holding significantly from April 2017 to date reversing any monetary stimulated inflationary actions. Thus the resultant liquidity levels in the money market broadly reflects natural market conditions compared to the market that was there an year ago, which reflected more realistic banking sector interest rates as of June 2018.
Private sector credit growth declined from high levels of 29% YoY in July 2016 to 15% YoY levels in 1Q2018. One of the main features of this decline includes a significant reduction in the uptake of credit from the Corporates, which is depicted by the declining Prime - Net Interest Margins (Prime - NIMs) since September 2016. Prime - NIMs declined from 5.2% in Sep 2016 to 2.2% in May 2018, which is a 300bit/s reduction in corporate lending business for the local banking system. However, retail margins in the economy declined only 30bit/s to 5% during the same period, which confirms the tilt of credit towards less credit worthy from high credit rated corporates (pausing possible NPA threats for the banking system in the near term).
Given the changes taking place in the private credit space (i.e. the retail tilt), and provided the CBSL's recent policy rate cut in April 2018, credit growth may still continue to move either horizontally (i.e. at 15% level) or continue to reduce slightly given anticipated near term inflationary pressures, as the consumption led borrowings may also tend to decline on account of anticipated reduction in near term disposable income. This will however not add any excessive upward pressures on interest rates (including 12-month T bill yields) especially during 2H2018E. As a result, 12-month Treasury bill yields may in fact slightly decline from its June 2018 --> 9.4% to 9% levels by end of 2018E. However, given the International Sovereign Bond (ISB) bullet payments >US$3bn p.a. commencing from 2019E may likely add some upward pressure on interest rates, resulting in the 12-month T bill yields rising to at least 10% by 30 June 2019.
The author of this segment (Sanjeewa Fernando) is a Lecturer at the University of Colombo for Master of Financial Economics

In the recent past, the Sri Lankan Government has identified some key focal areas to address the external imbalances of the economy, especially with regard to reducing its high trade deficit (~15% of GDP for 2012) in order to make the economy comply with the Marshall–Lerner condition. Sri Lanka's oil import bill accounts for an estimated 27% of total imports while its pro-growth policies have resulted in an investment goods import component of 24% of total imports. These inelastic import components have led to Sri Lanka's Export goods price elasticity + Import goods price elasticity totalling less than 1, resulting in the country not complying with the Marshall–Lerner condition.
Some of the suggested proposals include:

• Import substitution of investment goods and consumer goods
  
  
• Tax concessions towards value added exports
  
  
• Negotiating longer credit periods for oil imports
  
  
• Allowing the external value of the currency to be determined by market forces (with minimal central bank intervention).
  
  

• Within the capital account, borrowings still account for a significant proportion as opposed to Foreign direct investments.
  
  
• FDIs were estimated at ~US$800mn for FY2012
  
  

• The economy ended with an overall positive balance of US$151mn for 2012 (vs. a US$1,061mn deficit in FY2011)
  
  

[3]

The Central Bank of Sri Lanka is the monetary authority of Sri Lanka and was established in 1950. The Central Bank is responsible for the conduct of monetary policy in the country and also has supervisory powers over the financial system.^[50]
The Colombo Stock Exchange (CSE) is the main stock exchange in Sri Lanka. It is one of the most modern exchanges in South Asia, providing a fully automated trading platform. The vision of the CSE is to contribute to the wealth of the nation by creating value through securities. The headquarters of the CSE have been located at the World Trade Center Towers [4] in Colombo since 1995 and it also has branches across the country in Kandy, Matara, Kurunegala, Negombo and Jaffna.^[51] In 2009, after the 30 years long civil war came to an end, the CSE was the best performing stock exchange in the world.
See also: Central Bank of Sri Lanka and Colombo Stock Exchange

Main article: Transport in Sri Lanka

Most Sri Lankan cities and towns are connected by the Sri Lanka Railways, the state-run railway operator. The Sri Lanka Transport Board is the state-run agency responsible for operating public bus services across the island.
The government has launched several highway projects to bolster the economy and national transport system, including the Colombo-Katunayake Expressway, the Colombo-Kandy (Kadugannawa) Expressway, the Colombo-Padeniya Expressway and the Outer Circular Highway to ease Colombo's traffic congestion. The government sponsored Road Development Authority (RDA) has been involved in several large-scale projects all over the island in an attempt to improve the road network in Sri Lanka. Sri Lanka's commercial and economic centres, primarily the capitals of the nine provinces are connected by the "A-Grade" roads which are categorically organised and marked. Furthermore, "B-Grade" roads, also paved and marked, connect district capitals within provinces. The grand total of A, B and E grade roads are estimated at 12,379.49 km.^[52]

Main article: Energy in Sri Lanka

The energy policy is governed by the Ministry of Power and Energy, while the production and retailing of electricity is carried out by the Ceylon Electricity Board. Policy recommendations and planning comes under the oversight of the Public Utilities Commission of Sri Lanka. Energy in Sri Lanka is mostly generated by hydroelectric power stations in the Central Province.^[53][54]

Sri Lanka has a well established education system which has successfully created vast supply of skilled labor. The Sri Lanka's population has a literacy rate of 92%, higher than that expected for a third world country; it has the highest literacy rate in South Asia and overall, one of the highest literacy rates in Asia.^[55] Information technology literacy of the urban sector population is also satisfactory at 39.9 percent and people around the country use web based job boards to find skilled employment together with other sources such as news papers and government gazette. In Sri Lanka all persons above age limit 15 years and above of either gender are identified as working age population.^[56] In the fourth quarter of 2017, Sri Lanka had an unemployment rate of 4.2 percent^[57] and is shown to reduce gradually over the years.

Main article: Tourism in Sri Lanka
Tourism is one of the main industries in Sri Lanka. Major tourist attractions are focused around the islands famous beaches located in the southern and the eastern parts of the country and ancient heritage sites located in the interior of the country and resorts located in the mountainous regions of the country.^[58][59] Also, due to precious stones such as rubies and sapphires being frequently found and mined in Ratnapura and its surrounding areas, they are a major tourist attraction.^[60]
The 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami^[61] and the past civil war have reduced the tourist arrivals, however the number of tourists visiting have been recently increasing, beginning in early 2008.^[62] March 2008 by 8.6% and Sri Lanka attracted 1,003,000 tourists in 2012 according to the Central Bank of Sri Lanka's 2013 roadmap.^[63]

Main article: Tea industry of Sri Lanka
The tea industry, operating under the Ministry of Public Estate Management and Development, is one of the main industries in Sri Lanka. It became the world's leading exporter in 1995 with a 23% share of global tea export, higher than Kenya's 22% share. The central highlands of the country have a low temperature climate throughout the year and annual rainfall and the humidity levels that are suitable for growing tea. The industry was introduced to the country in 1867 by James Taylor, a British planter who arrived in 1852.^[64]
Recently, Sri Lanka has become one of the countries exporting fair trade tea to the UK and other countries. It is believed that such projects could reduce rural poverty.^[65][66]

Main article: Apparel industry of Sri Lanka
The apparel industry of the Sri Lanka mainly exports to the United States and Europe.^[67] There are about 900 factories throughout country serving companies such as Victoria's Secret, Liz Claiborne and Tommy Hilfiger.^[68] Textiles & Apparels, as categorized and reported by the Sri Lanka Export Development Board, made up to around 44% of Sri Lankan merchandise exports, in the year 2017.^[69]

Main articles: Agriculture in Sri Lanka and Livestock in Sri Lanka
The agricultural sector of the country produces mainly rice, coconut and grain, largely for domestic consumption and occasionally for export. The tea industry which has existed since 1867 is not usually regarded as part of the agricultural sector, which is mainly focused on export rather than domestic use in the country.^[70]

Main article: Information Technology in Sri Lanka
Export revenue of Sri Lankan IT sector is estimated to be US$720 million in 2013.^[71][72]

Main article: Gems of Sri Lanka
Sri Lanka is known for producing a variety of gemstones, including chrysoberyl, corundum, garnet, ruby, spinel, and tourmaline, and is a leading producer of the Ceylon Blue sapphire. The best known areas for gemstone mining in Sri Lanka were Balangoda, Elahera, Kamburupitiya, Moneragala, Okkampitiya, and Ratnapura. In addition Sri Lanka has a variety of industrial minerals, which include ball clay, kaolin, and other clays, calcite, dolomite, feldspar, graphite, limestone, Ilmenite, mica, rutile mineral sands, phosphate rock, quartz, zircon, dolomite and silica sand. Pulmoddai beach sand deposit is the most important non-ferrous mineral reserve in Sri Lanka as well as one of the world's most richest mineral sand deposits with heavy mineral concentrates of 50% to 60% and contain manyminerals including titanium.^[73][74][75]
Sri Lanka is famous specially for its highly valued and high-purity vein graphite. As of 2014, graphite was produced at the two largest graphite mines in Sri Lanka, the Bogala and the Kahatagaha Mines. Major investors in graphite mining are Graphite Lanka Ltd., Bogala Graphite Lanka Plc, Bora Bora Resources Ltd. (BBR) of Australia, MRL Corp. Ltd. of Australia, and Saint Jean Carbon Inc. of Canada.^[76][73]

Sri Lanka has developed several multi-national companies and international brands. The most notable companies include:
Conglomerates
Cargills, JKH, Hayleys
Apparel
MAS Holdings
Energy
LAUGFS Holdings
Hospitality
Aitken Spence
Tea
Dilmah
Consumer Goods
Ceylon Tobacco Company, Elephant House, DCSL, CBL, Maliban

Exports to the United States, Sri Lanka's most important market, were valued at $1.8 billion in 2002, or 38% of total exports. For many years, the United States has been Sri Lanka's largest market for garments, receiving more than 63% of the country's total garment exports. India is Sri Lanka's largest supplier, with imports worth $835 million in 2002. Japan, traditionally Sri Lanka's largest supplier, was its fourth-largest in 2002 with exports of $355 million. Other important suppliers include Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan, and South Korea. The United States is the 10th-largest supplier to Sri Lanka; US imports amounted to $218 million in 2002, according to Central Bank trade data.
A new port is being built in Hambantota in Southern Sri Lanka, funded by the Chinese government as a part of the Chinese aid to Sri Lanka. This will ease the congestion in Sri Lankan ports, particularly in Colombo. In 2009, 4456 ships visited Sri Lankan ports.

Sri Lanka had applied for credit ratings from international agencies in its efforts to apply for loans from international markets in 2005 after the election of Mahinda Rajapakse as president. Standard and Poor's has rated Sri Lanka a "B+" speculative rating, four grades below investment grade. Fitch has rated Sri Lanka with "BB-" which is three grades below investment grade. Standard and Poor's maintains Sri Lanka is constrained by providing widespread subsidies, a bloated public sector, transfers to loss-making state enterprises, and high interest local and international burdens [5]. Standard and Poor's estimates public sector debt has reached 95% of GDP [6], in comparison to CIA estimates of 89% of GDP [7]. Sri Lanka in mid-2007 sought to borrow $500 million from international markets to shore up the deteriorating exchange rate and reduce pressure on repayment of the domestic debt market [8]. The head of the opposition UNP, Ranil Wickremasinghe has warned that such intense borrowing is unsustainable and will not repay these loans if elected to power [9].

Sri Lanka is highly dependent on foreign assistance, and several high-profile assistance projects were launched in 2003. The most significant of these resulted from an aid conference in Tokyo in June 2003; pledges at the summit, which included representatives from the International Monetary Fund, World Bank, Asian Development Bank, Japan, the European Unionand the United States, totalled $4.5 billion.

During the past few years,^[when?] the country's debt has soared as it was developing its infrastructure to the point of near bankruptcy which required a bailout from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). "Without an IMF loan, Sri Lanka would have been in a precarious position" in May 2016, according to Krystal Tan, an Asia economist at Capital Economics, who added "foreign exchange reserves only covered around 80 percent of short-term external debt."^[77] The IMF had agreed to provide a $1.5 billion bailout loan in April 2016 after Sri Lanka provided a set of criteria intended to improve its economy.
By the fourth quarter of 2016 the debt was estimated to be $64.9 billion. Additional debt had been incurred in the past by state-owned organizations and this was said to be at least $9.5 billion. Since early 2015, domestic debt has increased by 12 percent and external debt by 25 percent.^[78]
In late 2016 the World Bank provided US$100 million in financing and the Japan International Cooperation Agency provided a US$100M loan, both intended to "provide budget financing and to support reforms in competitiveness, transparency, public sector and fiscal management", according to the World Bank. The bank also reported that the country's government had agreed that there was a need for reforms "in the areas of fiscal operations, competitiveness and governance" and if fully implemented, "these could help the country reach Upper Middle Income status in the medium term" according to the bank.^[79]
In November 2016, the International Monetary Fund reported that it would disburse a higher amount than the US$150 million originally planned, a full US$162.6 million (SDR 119.894 million), to Sri Lanka. The agency's evaluation was cautiously optimistic about the future: "While inflation has abated, credit growth remains strong. The central bank indicates its readiness to tighten the monetary policy stance further if inflationary pressures resurge or credit growth persists. The authorities intend to continue building up reserves through outright purchases while allowing for greater exchange rate flexibility. The banking sector is currently well capitalized. Steps are being taken to find a resolution mechanism for the distressed financial institutions. Going forward, there is a need to strengthen the supervisory and regulatory framework, and identify and mitigate vulnerabilities in the financial sector, particularly with regard to non-banks and state-owned banks."^[80]
As part of the debt management program the Sri Lankan government carried out several reforms which included the implementation of a new Inland Revenue Act as well as an automatic fuel pricing formula. Tax reforms also increased VAT rates and narrowed exemptions and the third review by the IMF noted that performance was on track regarding fiscal consolidation, revenue mobilization, monetary policy management, and reserves accumulation. In the fourth review in June 2018 the IMF claimed that "Sri Lanka has made important progress under its Fund-supported program", but stressed the need of further progress with revenue-based fiscal consolidation and a prudent monetary policy with sustained efforts to build up international reserves. In 2018 China extended a loan of $1.25 billion consisting of a below-market-rate syndicated loan and smaller Panda bond to bail out Sri Lanka.^[81][82][83]

• List of companies of Sri Lanka
  
  
• Central Bank of Sri Lanka
  
  
• Colombo Stock Exchange
  
  

will go into depression ...........worse case scenario ....crash ...need to get some debt relief as soon as possible

Monetary Policy Review: No. 2 of 2020

Policy interest rates of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka to remain unchanged
The Monetary Board of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka, at its meeting held on 04 March 2020, decided to maintain the Standing Deposit Facility Rate (SDFR) and the Standing Lending Facility Rate (SLFR) of the Central Bank at their current levels of 6.50 per cent and 7.50 per cent, respectively, and thereby continue its accommodative monetary policy stance. The Board arrived at this decision following a careful analysis of the current and expected developments in the domestic economy and the financial market as well as the global economy. The decision of the Monetary Board is consistent with the aim of maintaining inflation in the 4-6 per cent range while supporting economic growth to reach its potential over the medium term.

Many economies are becoming increasingly accommodative amidst global growth concerns
The escalation of the coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak to a ‘global health emergency’ and its potential to become a pandemic pose significant threats to global economic recovery in 2020. The widespread impact on China, the world’s second largest economy, will have spillover effects on the global economy through weakening trade, tourism and investment flows. The recent rapid rise in cases outside China highlights the high degree of health and economic contagion that the outbreak entails. Policymakers around the globe are expected to intensify policy support to address the effect of the outbreak on global demand and supply conditions, while monetary policies in both advanced economies and emerging market and developing economies are projected to be relaxed at a faster pace than previously envisaged.

The COVID-19 outbreak is likely to affect Sri Lanka’s economic performance
The exact impact on the Sri Lankan Economy would depend on the extent of the global spread of the COVID-19 outbreak, its persistence and policy responses of major economies and trading partners. Sri Lanka’s economic links with China could be directly affected as significant volumes of consumer goods, intermediate goods and investment goods are imported from China. The likely slowdown of the global economy and disruptions to the supply chain could affect Sri Lanka’s merchandise and service exports as well as related logistics. The slowdown in global tourist movements will affect Sri Lanka’s tourism sector, in addition to the direct impact of lower arrivals from China. The spread of the virus to countries with a significant number of Sri Lankan migrant workers could affect remittance inflows as well. These adverse implications are likely to outweigh any marginal benefit arising from reduced global energy prices and international interest rates.

Continued policy support would ensure a gradual recovery of domestic economic activity over the medium term
Despite global disruptions to growth caused by the spread of COVID-19 and uncertainties in the domestic market due to upcoming elections and the delayed presentation of the annual government budget, the economy is expected to somewhat recover in 2020 from the current subpar performance, supported by monetary and fiscal stimulus measures complemented by improving investor confidence. However, the introduction of appropriate structural reforms is essential to foster high economic growth, given limited policy spaces available to sustain such momentum over the medium to long term.

External sector remains resilient despite rising global uncertainties
A notable improvement was observed in the external current account balance in 2019, with the trade deficit contracting significantly as a result of a sharp decline in the growth of imports and a marginal growth of exports. The tourism sector witnessed a faster than expected recovery in 2019 following the Easter Sunday attacks. Yet, the COVID-19 outbreak is likely to pose challenges to the tourism sector in the period ahead. Workers’ remittances that moderated in the first eleven months of 2019, showed an improvement in December 2019 as well as January 2020. In the meantime, foreign investment in rupee denominated government securities recorded a net outflow thus far in 2020, partly due to increased investor appetite for safe haven assets amidst rising global uncertainty. Outflows of foreign investment from the secondary market of the Colombo Stock Exchange (CSE) remained modest thus far during the year. Reflecting these developments, the Sri Lankan rupee remained broadly stable with a marginal depreciation, while gross official reserves stood at US dollars 7.5 billion by end January 2020, sufficient to cover 4.5 months of imports.

Inflation is expected to stabilise within the desired range over the medium term despite transitory deviations arising from supply side disruptions
In January and February 2020, headline inflation, as measured by the year-on-year change in the Colombo Consumer Price Index (CCPI) showed an unexpected uptick, driven by a rapid acceleration in food inflation. Headline inflation based on the National Consumer Price Index (NCPI), which has a higher weight on food, also recorded a notable acceleration in January 2020. However, reflecting the subdued aggregate demand conditions, core inflation based on both CCPI and NCPI currently remains below 4 per cent. Meanwhile, vegetable prices showed a sharp downward adjustment since end February with improving supply conditions. Accordingly, the latest projections indicate that inflation would decline in the near term and stabilise within the desired range thereafter. Although demand driven inflationary pressures in the near term are not envisaged, the Central Bank will continue to closely monitor incoming data and take proactive measures to ensure the continued anchoring of inflation expectations in mid single digit levels.

An acceleration in the growth of money and credit aggregates was observed in January 2020
The year-on-year growth of credit extended to the private sector by commercial banks continued to accelerate in January 2020, although the absolute increase during the month was marginal compared to the average monthly increases observed since August 2019. Meanwhile, credit to the government increased notably in January 2020, reflecting its increased financing needs. Driven by the domestic credit expansion, broad money growth (year-on-year) also accelerated in January 2020. With the ongoing pass-through of policy measures to market lending rates and improving business confidence, the growth of credit to the private sector is expected to accelerate further, thereby supporting the envisaged expansion in economic activity in the period ahead.

Market lending rates are expected to reduce further
Market lending rates continued to decline as a result of the accommodative monetary policy stance and the regulatory measures taken by the Central Bank over the past several months. However, a faster downward adjustment in market lending rates is required to pass the full benefit of recent policy measures to borrowers, thereby to the economy.

Policy interest rates maintained at current levels
In consideration of the current and expected macroeconomic developments as highlighted above, the Monetary Board, at its meeting held on 04 March 2020, was of the view that the current accommodative monetary policy stance is appropriate, and decided to maintain the Standing Deposit Facility Rate (SDFR) and the Standing Lending Facility Rate (SLFR) of the Central Bank at their current levels of 6.50 per cent and 7.50 per cent, respectively. The Monetary Board was also of the view that there is ample space for market lending rates to reduce without a further adjustment in policy rates at this juncture. Such downward adjustment in the market lending rates would also help weather any short term impact on financial markets and the real economy arising from the COVID-19 outbreak. The Central Bank will continue to monitor domestic and global macroeconomic and financial market developments, including the impact of the spread of COVID-19 globally and its effects on Sri Lanka, with a view to maintaining stable economic conditions in the period ahead, while standing ready to provide liquidity to domestic financial markets as necessary.
Monetary Policy Decision: Policy rates and SRR unchanged
Standing Deposit Facility Rate (SDFR) Standing Lending Facility Rate (SLFR) Statutory Reserve Ratio (SRR)
6.50% 7.50% 5.00%

INFORMATION NOTE:
A press conference with Governor Prof. W D Lakshman will be held on 05 March 2020 at 11.30 am at the Atrium of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka.

The release of the next regular statement on monetary policy will be on 09 April 2020.

EMERGING SIGNS OF A REVIVAL

Biz confidence picks up with corporates planning to get back to doing business

Hot on the heels of a scathing review of the country’s monetary policy by President Gotabaya Rajapaksa on 16 June, in response to the COVID-19 crisis, the Central Bank of Sri Lanka announced a further reduction of the Statutory Reserve Ratio (SRR) applicable on all rupee deposit liabilities of licensed commercial banks (LCBs).
This lowering of the SRR by 200 basis points (that’s a total of 300 basis points so far this year) to two percent is expected to inject Rs. 115 billion of additional liquidity to the domestic money market, “enabling the financial system to expedite credit flows to the economy while reducing the cost of funds of LCBs,” according to a statement issued by the Central Bank later that night.
Meanwhile, the latest LMD-Nielsen Business Confidence Index (BCI) paints a more optimistic picture than witnessed previously this year.

THE INDEX The BCI has begun to pick up for the first time in 2020, rising by seven basis points from the previous month to 96 in June. This also marks an improvement compared to where it stood a year ago (81) when the nation was reeling from the 4/21 attacks although the index is still 21 points shy of its average for the last 12 months.

According to Nielsen’s Director – Consumer Insights Therica Miyanadeniya, “optimism is on the rise once again and sentiment is positive as the country has opened up ahead of others in the region. The civilian population, businesses, and private and public enterprises are adjusting to a post-COVID life with many stringent measures put in place to curb a second wave of the pandemic.”
She adds: “Following more than three gruelling months of lockdown, life is gradually adjusting to a ‘new normal’; and companies, businesses and enterprises are picking up from where they left off to salvage what they can over the next half of the year.”
Moreover, she notes that “the resilience of the Sri Lankan people and businesses – who have weathered far more in the past amid a near 30 year civil war and more recently, the Easter Sunday bombings – is evident as they start to rise up like a phoenix from the ashes.”
SENSITIVITIES The impact of the coronavirus continues to feature prominently among the most pressing issues for business today with the value of the rupee and inflation also warranting mentions by survey respondents – but to a far lesser extent than COVID-19. Financial instability is another emerging issue that’s highlighted.
According to those consulted by the pollsters, COVID-19 is also the most pressing national issue at this time.
PROJECTIONS As life appears to be gradually gaining a semblance of normalcy, and businesses begin to adjust to regaining fully operational status, we’re inclined to believe that the BCI may continue on an upward trajectory.
Furthermore, with the general election scheduled for 5 August and the prospect of an end to the political stalemate of recent months, we may continue to witness an uptrend in business confidence.
The other side of the coin is whether or not the anticipated business turnaround will eventuate – and crucially, how soon. That’s anyone’s guess.
– LMD

another indication that economy activities are back to track.
http://epaper.dailynews.lk/Home/ShareArticle?OrgId=47e20644&imageview=0


and probably you all went through the CBSL report,
even at end of May, manufacturing and service sectors PMI touched the 2019 curve.
in Industrial sector , IIP value is not recorded yet for the month May, you can see that in the next week report, it is also and V shape recovery.

I think GOVERNMENT should ban import of Apple's,grapes...forever and give chances to local fruits (srilanka has morethan 70 fruits)
And vegetables /salt / even canned fish
Also ban import of luxury vehicles above 50000dolelrs

Complete Ban of luxury items may not be the way to go in a neo liberal economy. As a free and a democratic country, all the people Rich and Poor alike should be able to live the way they want to. Instead of a complete ban, Government can Introduce more Taxes for imported luxury items and introduce more income taxes from the Rich so that it could be put in to good use for the development of the lives of the less fortunate. Complete banning of imports will side line a country. Imagine if Iran, Iraq ban imports of tea from us, or US, EU completely ban imports of garments and other items from us? It doesn't work only one way. It works both ways. Unfortunately for our country, leaders thus far have failed to utilize the taxes to serve the people and uplift the quality of living.

I MEAN GOVERNEMNT SHOULD HAVE TRADE AGREEMENT WITH CHINA AND INDIA ,US and EU with mutual benefits .
Why we order apples and grapes which plucked month ago.
And why canned fish ??
Should totally ban people should face bitter truth now and prosper child's future.

Sri Lanka exports rebound in June 2020 as Covid-19 controlled, PPE $100mn