CEYLON GRAIN ELEVATORS PLC (GRAN.N0000)

worthiness · **576** Re: CEYLON GRAIN ELEVATORS PLC (GRAN.N0000) Tue May 03, 2016 11:26 am

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Out of common key performance indicators some schools of thought prioritize the values otherwise weighing inherent drawbacks. The strength of net operating cash flows indicates the ability to expand the future growth of business/diversification avoiding added financial obligations. ROE places the long term confidentiality of stakeholders subject to the computing adjustments required. Complexities related to the drivers being used in arriving market value & economic profit of a business imbalance the expectations of buyer & seller. Apart from, certain strategies used for value gap analysis create different dimensions between business parties to reach the valuation.

worthiness · **577** Re: CEYLON GRAIN ELEVATORS PLC (GRAN.N0000) Tue May 03, 2016 12:23 pm

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Those who entered to poultry sector three months before are well benefited by now. Despite many comments about price appreciation before, poultry sector (BFL,TAFL,GRAN) is still marching ahead facing occasional hiccups.
Any approximate price of these three counters by end of May?

EquityChamp · **578** Re: CEYLON GRAIN ELEVATORS PLC (GRAN.N0000) Tue May 03, 2016 12:42 pm

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That is a tough question to answer brother. Especially with GRAN. Because the share is facing the hurdle of selling around 80-82 level. What I can see is GRAN will trading around 80-84 till the selling is over while TAFL to reach 135-140 level by the end of month with proper support from ASPI and the quarterly statement to be released shortly.

Pac-man · **579** Re: CEYLON GRAIN ELEVATORS PLC (GRAN.N0000) Tue May 03, 2016 3:16 pm

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GRAN fall down and go up. fall can fall lik 2/3 rupee more profit kattiya sell karanna

EPS · **580** Re: CEYLON GRAIN ELEVATORS PLC (GRAN.N0000) Tue May 03, 2016 6:34 pm

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Currently poultry sector GRAN is the best share to buy.
if you look last month trading pattern TAFL reach 75 to 125 range. BFL reach 135 to 180 range. Only GRAN reach 70 to 80 range.
GRAN is the mother company of TAFL. Definetly it should reach at least 100 or 110 level now. When time comes it will fly. Keep your with GRAN now.

Shammi Dharshana · **581** Re: CEYLON GRAIN ELEVATORS PLC (GRAN.N0000) Tue May 03, 2016 7:47 pm

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Pac man gharihariyanne naha bro.patta sell ekak tiyenawa.oya tika sell karala kapi tikak ganna.60 denna puluwan

Shammi Dharshana · **582** Re: CEYLON GRAIN ELEVATORS PLC (GRAN.N0000) Tue May 03, 2016 7:50 pm

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Sorry gran hari yanne naha(typying mistake)

EquityChamp · **583** Re: CEYLON GRAIN ELEVATORS PLC (GRAN.N0000) Tue May 03, 2016 10:17 pm

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4.2 mn shares will be available to sell @ 80-83 level. You can refer my GRAN analysis published today morning.

Pac-man · **584** Re: CEYLON GRAIN ELEVATORS PLC (GRAN.N0000) Tue May 03, 2016 10:27 pm

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Even Karabuwa advise to sell people with profit .

EquityChamp · **585** Re: CEYLON GRAIN ELEVATORS PLC (GRAN.N0000) Tue May 03, 2016 10:32 pm

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Yes such a large profit you can earn within a price range of 80-83 Very Happy

chamil1 · **586** Re: CEYLON GRAIN ELEVATORS PLC (GRAN.N0000) Tue May 03, 2016 10:41 pm

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Foreign seller now has much less in qty EC.

Approx 1 million shares less.

Buyers around Rs 82. Hope things happens fast. Gran has a long journey ahead

EquityChamp · **587** Re: CEYLON GRAIN ELEVATORS PLC (GRAN.N0000) Tue May 03, 2016 10:48 pm

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I have analysed the behaviour of foreign holdings. And estimates Japfa has more than 4 mn remaining. They originally had 6mn shares which reduced to 5 mn by 31st March. Between then and now foreign holding has to be dropped by 4mn or if that has been taken by another foreign party then shares traded during the period must be above 3 mn. Neither one has happened yet.
I have looked into very details of this after you pointed out the selling scenario the other day.

chamil1 · **588** Re: CEYLON GRAIN ELEVATORS PLC (GRAN.N0000) Tue May 03, 2016 11:00 pm

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I think it maybe around 3.4 million .

There had been around 4.65 million by end of 1st week of March when asked for a price for the entire qty by a broker.

Pac-man · **589** Re: CEYLON GRAIN ELEVATORS PLC (GRAN.N0000) Tue May 03, 2016 11:04 pm

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Gran will go habai, puluwan kattiya thiyaganna .
SFL.P no selling ethin yana ekae yamu neda

EquityChamp · **590** Re: CEYLON GRAIN ELEVATORS PLC (GRAN.N0000) Wed May 04, 2016 7:08 am

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Pac-man wrote:Gran will go habai, puluwan kattiya thiyaganna .
SFL.P no selling ethin yana ekae yamu neda

Eta nathi diva ona pathakata namanda puluwanne neda pac-man Very Happy

I am only talking if there are facts so there will be very low chance for turning the stance.

EPS · **591** Re: CEYLON GRAIN ELEVATORS PLC (GRAN.N0000) Wed May 04, 2016 8:46 am

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Anyhow this should trade atleast 100 now. Otherwise something is wrong in CSE.

jaya · **592** Re: CEYLON GRAIN ELEVATORS PLC (GRAN.N0000) Wed May 04, 2016 9:03 am

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EPS wrote:Anyhow this should trade atleast 100 now. Otherwise something is wrong in CSE.

If grain goes 100 definitely BFL will follow the same trend.

EPS · **593** Re: CEYLON GRAIN ELEVATORS PLC (GRAN.N0000) Wed May 04, 2016 9:11 am

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I strongly belive BFL will pass 205 very very soon. All signs seems to be ready now.

EquityChamp · **594** Re: CEYLON GRAIN ELEVATORS PLC (GRAN.N0000) Thu May 05, 2016 6:48 pm

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How the picture going to change with the just released Q1 16 result. The below is my forecast for 2016 FY.

Rs Mn	2015	Q1 16	2016 F
Rev	13,741	3,663	15,113
PAT	1,179	421	1,511
PAT for equity holders	943	332	1,209
EPS	15.7	5.5	20.2

ROE has improved to 34% in Q1. Just amazing.

And @ the CMP of 80/- the forward PE is 4x.

With these numbers I can see the current seller Japfa Ltd as an idiot. Anyway they have given the fundamental and value seekers a great opportunity to earn more than 100% profit in medium term. If I were having 400mn tomorrow I will call these fellows and take this block. What a pathetic scenario is this.

worthiness · **595** Re: CEYLON GRAIN ELEVATORS PLC (GRAN.N0000) Thu May 05, 2016 7:24 pm

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There may be a special reason unknown why Japfa want to dispose their shareholdings of growth oriented industry. ROE over 30% is fantastic unless one-off revenue is included.

chamil1 · **596** Re: CEYLON GRAIN ELEVATORS PLC (GRAN.N0000) Thu May 05, 2016 8:44 pm

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Let's hope this gets cleared fast. Massively undervalued at the moment.

EquityChamp wrote:How the picture going to change with the just released Q1 16 result. The below is my forecast for 2016 FY.

Rs Mn 2015 Q1 16 2016 F
Rev          13,741          3,663          15,113
PAT            1,179             421            1,511
PAT for equity holders                943             332            1,209
EPS 15.7 5.5 20.2

ROE has improved to 34% in Q1. Just amazing.

And @ the CMP of 80/- the forward PE is 4x.

With these numbers I can see the current seller Japfa Ltd as an idiot. Anyway they have given the fundamental and value seekers a great opportunity to earn more than 100% profit in medium term. If I were having 400mn tomorrow I will call these fellows and take this block. What a pathetic scenario is this.

Learner19 · **597** Re: CEYLON GRAIN ELEVATORS PLC (GRAN.N0000) Thu May 05, 2016 8:49 pm

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worthiness wrote:There may be a special reason unknown why Japfa want to dispose their shareholdings of growth oriented industry. ROE over 30% is fantastic unless one-off revenue is included.

Japfa has disposed its quantity of nearly 1 million TAFL already. Its a decision taken by them to quit both irrespective of company performance. So there is a great opportunity in both.

Consistent performance by TAFL with annualized EPS of Rs. 34. If we could have PER of 10, then the share price must be Rs. 340 which at some point this will reach mid term. Its now trading at PER of less than 4 which makes it grossly undervalued. Should be at least Rs. 210 if it were to trade at PER of just 6. Long way to go for this counter.

TAFL has completely settled the loan obtained from mother company GRAN to the tune of 1.5 billion rupees. Now its a debt free company with a very bright future ahead.

GRAN of course has improved much better with cash in hand of more than 1 billion rupees. Their annualized EPS comes around Rs. 22. So the share price should be around Rs. 132 for a PER of just 6. This is also a debt free company with excellent outlook.

I have shares in both these companies and am happy to keep.

Jaya sri · **598** Re: CEYLON GRAIN ELEVATORS PLC (GRAN.N0000) Thu May 05, 2016 10:38 pm

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Learner19 wrote:

worthiness wrote:There may be a special reason unknown why Japfa want to dispose their shareholdings of growth oriented industry. ROE over 30% is fantastic unless one-off revenue is included.

Japfa has disposed its quantity of nearly 1 million TAFL already. Its a decision taken by them to quit both irrespective of company performance. So there is a great opportunity in both.

Consistent performance by TAFL with annualized EPS of Rs. 34. If we could have PER of 10, then the share price must be Rs. 340 which at some point this will reach mid term. Its now trading at PER of less than 4 which makes it grossly undervalued. Should be at least Rs. 210 if it were to trade at PER of just 6. Long way to go for this counter.

TAFL has completely settled the loan obtained from mother company GRAN to the tune of 1.5 billion rupees. Now its a debt free company with a very bright future ahead.

GRAN of course has improved much better with cash in hand of more than 1 billion rupees. Their annualized EPS comes around Rs. 22. So the share price should be around Rs. 132 for a PER of just 6. This is also a debt free company with excellent outlook.

I have shares in both these companies and am happy to keep.

GRAN 80 nod bad is it

EPS · **599** Re: CEYLON GRAIN ELEVATORS PLC (GRAN.N0000) Fri May 06, 2016 6:49 am

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Gran ispromissing 50% plus return 2016...

Harry82 · **600** Re: CEYLON GRAIN ELEVATORS PLC (GRAN.N0000) Fri May 06, 2016 6:57 am

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most of the companies are trading low PER

LFIN - PER 4.5
CDB - PER 5
PABC - PER6

there4 Gran 80.00 is not bad price.
Cant expect lot

Chinwi · **601** Re: CEYLON GRAIN ELEVATORS PLC (GRAN.N0000) Fri May 06, 2016 7:54 am

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For JAPFA, selling GRAN @ 80 or 120 makes no much difference.

Their Asset value is 2,300 million US$
Their current assets in GRAN is 2.1 million US$

Since their holding in GRAN is below 0.1% of their total assets I think it makes a burden than a wealth for them to maintain it in their books.

If they sell GRAN @ 80 /- they get 2.5 million US$
If they sell GRAN @ 120/- they get 3.7 million US$

Their after tax profit for first qtr 2016 only was 37.1 million US $

---
Now, their intention is no secret , selling at higher prices is not probable for them. This makes a good opportunity to collect it with the cash flow of small inverters in coming months.

EquityChamp · **602** Re: CEYLON GRAIN ELEVATORS PLC (GRAN.N0000) Fri May 06, 2016 8:03 am

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@ Chinwi, Exactly my point. That's why I wrote if I had 400mn I will call this fellows and buy it.

Chinwi · **603** Re: CEYLON GRAIN ELEVATORS PLC (GRAN.N0000) Fri May 06, 2016 8:18 am

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Harry82 wrote:most of the companies are trading low PER

LFIN - PER 4.5
CDB - PER 5
PABC - PER6

there4 Gran 80.00 is not bad price.
Cant expect lot

accepted. above is the situation these days.

1980-90 ගණන් වල ලංකාවෙ සමාගම් වල PER එක 6 තිබිල 20 ටත් එහා නැග්ග. නැවත ආර්ථික ව්‍යාකූලත්වය මත 6 ට බැස්ස. නැවත මට මතක විදියට වසර 2 එජාප කාලයේ සටන් නැවැත්වීමේ ගිවිසුමෙන් පසුව උදාවූ කාලයේ PER ඉහල ගියා. නැවත සටන් උත්සන්න වීමත් සමග හා ලෝක අර්ථික අවපාතය හමුවේ 6 ටත් පහලට වැටුනා. 2009 න් පස්සෙ රටේ ඇතිවූ පිබිදීමත් සමග 20 පන්නල ගියා. නැවත දැන් 6 ටත් පහලට අඩු වෙලා තියෙනව.
නැවත කවදා හෝ 20 ට එහා යයි.
ඒකට යලිත් ආර්ථිකය මේ මට්ටමේ නැතුව ස්ථාවර පැහැදිලි අනාගතයක් පේන්න තියෙන තත්වයට එන්න ඕන.

එතකල් 6 ට අඩු ස්ථාවර ව්‍යාපාර වල කොටස් කෙමෙන් එකතු කර ගත්තට කමක් නෑ. නමුත් විකුණන දිනය කියන්න බෑ. සමහර විට හිතුවට වඩා කාලයක් අල්ලගෙන ඉන්න වෙයි.

Brinthan · **604** Re: CEYLON GRAIN ELEVATORS PLC (GRAN.N0000) Fri May 06, 2016 7:56 pm

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Too much of selling preasure between 82-85 range...Thats why i think gran not moving as we expect...

cseguide · **605** Re: CEYLON GRAIN ELEVATORS PLC (GRAN.N0000) Fri May 06, 2016 8:40 pm

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Chinwi wrote:

Harry82 wrote:most of the companies are trading low PER

LFIN - PER 4.5
CDB - PER 5
PABC - PER6

there4 Gran 80.00 is not bad price.
Cant expect lot

accepted. above is the situation these days.

1980-90 ගණන් වල ලංකාවෙ සමාගම් වල PER එක 6 තිබිල 20 ටත් එහා නැග්ග. නැවත ආර්ථික ව්‍යාකූලත්වය මත 6 ට බැස්ස. නැවත මට මතක විදියට වසර 2 එජාප කාලයේ සටන් නැවැත්වීමේ ගිවිසුමෙන් පසුව උදාවූ කාලයේ PER ඉහල ගියා. නැවත සටන් උත්සන්න වීමත් සමග හා ලෝක අර්ථික අවපාතය හමුවේ 6 ටත් පහලට වැටුනා. 2009 න් පස්සෙ රටේ ඇතිවූ පිබිදීමත් සමග 20 පන්නල ගියා. නැවත දැන් 6 ටත් පහලට අඩු වෙලා තියෙනව.
නැවත කවදා හෝ 20 ට එහා යයි.
ඒකට යලිත් ආර්ථිකය මේ මට්ටමේ නැතුව ස්ථාවර පැහැදිලි අනාගතයක් පේන්න තියෙන තත්වයට එන්න ඕන.

එතකල් 6 ට අඩු ස්ථාවර ව්‍යාපාර වල කොටස් කෙමෙන් එකතු කර ගත්තට කමක් නෑ. නමුත් විකුණන දිනය කියන්න බෑ. සමහර විට හිතුවට වඩා කාලයක් අල්ලගෙන ඉන්න වෙයි.

ඔය කියන්ඩ හදනෙ අය MR එනකම් MARKET නගිනේ නැ කියලා නේද ? මේවා අහලා දැන් නම් ඇති වෙලා තියනේ .කොහෙන් ගියත් ඔතෙන්ද තමා CHINWI එනේ . NEGATIVE වෙනද එපා . මේ ආන්ඩුවට කාලයක් දීල බලමු

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