CEYLON GRAIN ELEVATORS PLC (GRAN.N0000)

nimantha80 wrote:Jafpa has sold 8 laks in Q2 but still 3.8 million remaining.

stockback wrote:

nimantha80 wrote:Jafpa has sold 8 laks in Q2 but still 3.8 million remaining.

I think Japfa not selling now. foreign attraction building now after another 3-6 Japfa can give parcel at 120 very easily 

you guys upset  for this selling no.


mainly 17.05.2016 date Director sold 5000 stocks at 81 level. Director  doing this type of cheap thing and collecting at low level. this is ugly side of business.

think and invest.....

nimantha80 wrote:

stockback wrote:

nimantha80 wrote:Jafpa has sold 8 laks in Q2 but still 3.8 million remaining.

I think Japfa not selling now. foreign attraction building now after another 3-6 Japfa can give parcel at 120 very easily 

you guys upset  for this selling no.


mainly 17.05.2016 date Director sold 5000 stocks at 81 level. Director  doing this type of cheap thing and collecting at low level. this is ugly side of business.

think and invest.....

lets see.definitely high time for gran.Tafl has moved massively compared to GRAN.Today also 50000 outflow as I remember(Gran)

newer1 wrote:Next report definitely will be worse than this one with ongoing production failure.better to exit with chickens.
Thnks

EquityChamp wrote:Well, Q2 results are out with a revenue of 3537 mn and PAT of 350mn. Though this result is some what below my expectation it confirms that even within challenges this company can stand strong and I estimate still GRAN will surpass the profits achieved in 2015 by a minimum of 40%.

If I summarise what has happened with GRAN from Q1 to Q2 it would be like this.
 

Rs mn	Q1 16	Q2 16	Q2 15	QoQ	YoY
Rev	3663	3537	3135	-3%	13%
GP	620	530	355
GP margin	17%	15%	11%
PBT	506	457	230	-10%	99%
TAX	86	107	29
Effective tax rate	17%	23%	13%

YoY both revenue and profits grew remarkably however QoQ revenue drop by 3% and PBT drop by 10%. Why?
I anyway anticipated the QoQ revenue drop due to adverse whether prevailed in the country. The PBT decline is mainly due to revenue drop, escalating costs from raw materials and exchange rates resulting a 2pp drop in gross margins and increase in effective corporate tax rates to 23%.

This adverse situation will improve in next quarter due to following.
a) Stabilizing exchange rates (July already witnessed LKR appreciation)
b)Increase in maximum price of 1kg of chicken by Rs30 will improve the gross margins by 5 percentage points
c)demand shift from small scale players who are unable to sell at Rs410 towards branded chicken will boost the revenue in coming quarter

Now its very much certain that current performances are not similar to what this company demonstrated in 2010-11 period but it has more promising future. Moreover the retained earnings now standing at Rs3.3 bn with over 1.5bn as cash hence a good offering may be possible such as bonus issues and higher dividends. Therefore my general advice is keep holding your GRAN holdings and if the price fall below 75 level BUY some more quantity.




Quoting from CEO statement;
"The good results came from the sustained growth in revenue and efficient management, in spite of the challenges posted by  fluctuating exchange rates,  high cost of local maize, increase in taxes and adverse climatic conditions. The recent upward revision in the Maximum Retail Price of whole chicken with effect from 14 July 2016, would  help the Industry to cover the escalating cost of production to a certain extent" 

Thanks till the next quarter.

EquityChamp wrote:Further I have noticed that Japfa has shed a further 800,000 shares during the 2nd quarter. I assume they havn't changed their mind to sell the stake completely. Sometimes recent days also they might be selling and another foreign party will be buying too.
Anyways the wait @ 80s might be continue for a further period and it seems that investors need to be patient for some more time.
GL

stockback wrote:GRAN has foreign selling pressure as well Foreign buying.

karuna wrote:

stockback wrote:GRAN has foreign selling pressure as well Foreign buying.

Yes yes

stockback wrote:

karuna wrote:

stockback wrote:GRAN has foreign selling pressure as well Foreign buying.

Yes yes

near future this will be absorb.

CSE foreign buying  started. I feel this will continue 

I know one foreign party is collecting GRAN. maybe they will continue very slowly

has to spend little time.  nearly 3 months. within 3 months 50% gain not a bad one.

Chicken Price band, Maize/Corn approve to import by Government. world market Maize/Corn  dropping. these are the plus points for Chicken family 

will see....

karuna wrote:

stockback wrote:

karuna wrote:

stockback wrote:GRAN has foreign selling pressure as well Foreign buying.

Yes yes

near future this will be absorb.

CSE foreign buying  started. I feel this will continue 

I know one foreign party is collecting GRAN. maybe they will continue very slowly

has to spend little time.  nearly 3 months. within 3 months 50% gain not a bad one.

Chicken Price band, Maize/Corn approve to import by Government. world market Maize/Corn  dropping. these are the plus points for Chicken family 

will see....

Naaa lowi gahan eanawa patta na

stockback wrote:

karuna wrote:

stockback wrote:

karuna wrote:

stockback wrote:GRAN has foreign selling pressure as well Foreign buying.

Yes yes

near future this will be absorb.

CSE foreign buying  started. I feel this will continue 

I know one foreign party is collecting GRAN. maybe they will continue very slowly

has to spend little time.  nearly 3 months. within 3 months 50% gain not a bad one.

Chicken Price band, Maize/Corn approve to import by Government. world market Maize/Corn  dropping. these are the plus points for Chicken family 

will see....

Naaa lowi gahan eanawa patta na

I didnt get.

TARGET wrote:Band getting narrower means no real trend. I don't know how you use it to explain a breakout. Is it a new theory?

TARGET wrote:Band getting narrower means no real trend. I don't know how you use it to explain a breakout. Is it a new theory?

stockback wrote:

TARGET wrote:Band getting narrower means no real trend. I don't know how you use it to explain a breakout. Is it a new theory?

BREAKING DOWN 'Bollinger Band'
Because standard deviation is a measure of volatility, Bollinger Bands adjust themselves to the market conditions. When the markets become more volatile, the bands widen (move further away from the average), and during less volatile periods, the bands contract (move closer to the average). The tightening of the bands is often used by technical traders as an early indication that the volatility is about to increase sharply.

TARGET wrote:

stockback wrote:

TARGET wrote:Band getting narrower means no real trend. I don't know how you use it to explain a breakout. Is it a new theory?

BREAKING DOWN 'Bollinger Band'
Because standard deviation is a measure of volatility, Bollinger Bands adjust themselves to the market conditions. When the markets become more volatile, the bands widen (move further away from the average), and during less volatile periods, the bands contract (move closer to the average). The tightening of the bands is often used by technical traders as an early indication that the volatility is about to increase sharply.

Yes it may be also a downtrend...

TARGET wrote:That's mean if 200 points down will this be a downtrend?

TARGET wrote:I also hv gran and still collecting.  But I think when we give a analysis it's better to give the all possibilities. Don't you think stockback?