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Unfortunately poultry sector stocks going to stagnate for a while

3 posters

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EquityChamp

EquityChamp
Moderator
Moderator

According to technical signals TAFL,GRAN & BFL are going to be stagnated for a while before the up move. may be sometimes there will be downword movement as well. So don't panic. If you couldn't buy at low prices then you will be having another chance as well.Basketball

prabath


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

EquityChamp wrote:According to technical signals TAFL,GRAN & BFL are going to be stagnated for a while before the up move. may be sometimes there will be downword movement as well. So don't panic. If you couldn't buy at low prices then you will be having another chance as well.Basketball
Wrong it's stuck because of JKH

EquityChamp

EquityChamp
Moderator
Moderator

prabath wrote:
EquityChamp wrote:According to technical signals TAFL,GRAN & BFL are going to be stagnated for a while before the up move. may be sometimes there will be downword movement as well. So don't panic. If you couldn't buy at low prices then you will be having another chance as well.Basketball
Wrong it's stuck because of JKH

Really not the case. Lot of people are waiting to sell. Last few days in the downword trend we saw increasing volumes of trade when the share price comes down. There were more selling at the price of 90 for GRAN than 100 and even more selling at the price of 80 than 90. How it could happen is that you will find by looking at analysisng price and volume graphs since September last year. The reason is that lot of investors were there holding large quantities with profits as the shares in this sector went up more than 100% in relatively small time frame.

So what has actually happened was when the share is coming down the people who bought at really lower levels got panicked and dump, the higher the price drops the higher the sales volumes.

Finally the current selling pattern reflectes if you closely analyse the technical graphs that there are still quantities availble unsold but still with unrealised profits. They will come slowly depending on the price in the market so I can predict a bit stagnation for these counters.

Anybody can prove if I am wrong here.

prabath


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

EquityChamp wrote:
prabath wrote:
EquityChamp wrote:According to technical signals TAFL,GRAN & BFL are going to be stagnated for a while before the up move. may be sometimes there will be downword movement as well. So don't panic. If you couldn't buy at low prices then you will be having another chance as well.Basketball
Wrong it's stuck because of JKH

Really not the case. Lot of people are waiting to sell. Last few days in the downword trend we saw increasing volumes of trade when the share price comes down. There were more selling at the price of 90 for GRAN than 100 and even more selling at the price of 80 than 90. How it could happen is that you will find by looking at analysisng price and volume graphs since September last year. The reason is that lot of investors were there holding large quantities with profits as the shares in this sector went up more than 100% in relatively small time frame.

So what has actually happened was when the share is coming down the people who bought at really lower levels got panicked and dump, the higher the price drops the higher the sales volumes.

Finally the current selling pattern reflectes if you closely analyse the technical graphs that there are still quantities availble unsold but still with unrealised profits. They will come slowly depending on the price in the market so I can predict a bit stagnation for these counters.

Anybody can prove if I am wrong here.
ehema naththe moko,dan me okkoma set karan up karanna hadaddi JKH awith ude pandarama kelinawa index ekata.

EquityChamp

EquityChamp
Moderator
Moderator

Another reason is that the unpredictability of the profits of these three stocks. Look at the five year summary of these stocks.

BFL
2010/11 - 486mn
2011/12 - 453mn
2012/13 - 161mn
2013/14 - 129mn
2014/15 - 164mn
2015/16 - 600mn (Forcast)

GRAN
2010 - 475mn
2011 - 346mn
2012 - 134mn
2013 - 124mn
2014 - 80mn
2015 - 750mn (Forcast)

TAFL
2010 - 229mn
2011 - 171mn
2012 - 36mn
2013 - 176mn
2014 - 165mn
2015 - 500mn(Forcast)

Common feature is that huge profits followed by very pathetic profits for some years. Now I think the 2015 earnings are reflecting on the current share prices and if these companies can manage a growth in profits in 2016 also these companies will move to 200+. But for that happen first quarter of 2016 results have to be released. Therefore I think there is a risk factor involved with future profitability.

Look at CTC,NEST,DIST,etc. They are continue in huge profits so anyone can predict the future cash flows very easily so that they are trading at very high prices.

If these three companies can follow the same trend within a couple of years time these shares will be above 300.

EquityChamp

EquityChamp
Moderator
Moderator

EquityChamp wrote:According to technical signals TAFL,GRAN & BFL are going to be stagnated for a while before the up move. may be sometimes there will be downword movement as well. So don't panic. If you couldn't buy at low prices then you will be having another chance as well.Basketball

When I were writing this TAFL was 103.40 and GRAN was 82.50. Now after report TAFL 101 and GRAN 77. I wrote this to educate all of you to keep some cash to buy when it comes down. All members be realistic and try to make your decision within the current context. Give your brains the prioroty not for traders who are in this forum.

Joe007


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

Thank you Equitychamp

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