why market is going down ? Market is under correction .... It will hit this level.. (this is for a open discussion)

We can hear like above statements these days from many in the forum & beyond this forum.

My questions are, why it is going down ? what is the reason ? (except the Regulations) pls do not talk about the regulations & regulators. Because now the situation is far beyond of those things.

Who is selling at this level ? - panic sellers, credit clearing ......what else
Because selling is pushing down the indics.

Why tournover is such a low ? - Because of HINWs away from the market ???. It means our CSE is depends on those ???????. Or no credit buying. If it is so our CSE is highly depends on credit ?????

pls share your thoughts. Pls do not throw words to regulators. I did past, but now i realised it is beyond that.

1.i think some people are going to leave the market for a long time or forever as there are more optional business opportunities are exist in the country.

2.as far as last few months are concern no recovery signs to be seen.unusual downtrend has created panic among the most of the investors.

3.no one to take responsibility of this continuous downtrend.

4. it seems to be that authorities are in a deep sleep,no signs of wake up .

Read this.
http://stocks.about.com/od/advancedtrading/a/101208Price.htm

Kumar wrote:Read this.
http://stocks.about.com/od/advancedtrading/a/101208Price.htm

thank you kumar

Everything seems to be messed up these days. Need to resolve all issues one by one.

education, economy, cse all sectors in trouble..

I think now CSE at a different stage, correction is more less is over, now its about confidence and clarity of policies.

If regulators can clear about the policies and be consistent with it, the confidence will be restored back to the market. However it can take time. For example if SEC says "NO" to credit relaxation there could be sudden drop in the market, such uncertinity keeps investors and traders away.

CSE's cash position is very low.We have passed enough technical buying points @ 7000,6800,6450,6250 again reaching to 5850..
When it was up to 6100, we saw how bears' power is. There are a lot of parcels available for sale only in banking sector(others also same). So how can we run the market without buying those.. that's why we need inflows...

That's why I reiterate we need strong real cash in put for this problem rather than searching technical buying points and credit relaxation ( if credit is relaxed we can expect short run by maximum 300 points and then again start crashing)

So IMO we have to wait till foreigners come back to CSE Sad

My old post on 21 Dec 2011
http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t14208-is-this-crisis-due-to-secs-over-regulations-or-illiquidity

Tiger wrote:I think now CSE at a different stage, correction is more less is over, now its about confidence and clarity of policies.

If regulators can clear about the policies and be consistent with it, the confidence will be restored back to the market. However it can take time. For example if SEC says "NO" to credit relaxation there could be sudden drop in the market, such uncertinity keeps investors and traders away.

Tiger, you mean the out come of the meeting will be bad? Is that why the market coming down like this?

swan03 wrote:

Tiger wrote:I think now CSE at a different stage, correction is more less is over, now its about confidence and clarity of policies.

If regulators can clear about the policies and be consistent with it, the confidence will be restored back to the market. However it can take time. For example if SEC says "NO" to credit relaxation there could be sudden drop in the market, such uncertinity keeps investors and traders away.

Tiger, you mean the out come of the meeting will be bad? Is that why the market coming down like this?

No dear, I don't know anything about that.
However I would be very much wonder the professionalism if they allow broker credit more than 100%, because brokers are not banks. However my feeling is that they will allow more credit under a different mechanism.

What I am saying is its not about liquidity now, its about investor confidence. Money is there with investors. When we say that market has lost this many billions and so on, where has this money gone??? Its with those who sold High. All the money circulated is still in the system.

Why do foreign investors selling? because of unsustainable exchange rate policy, the rupee was artificially kept high over last 2 years. That was expecting FDI inflows into the country which never materiarised, even Govt. estimates of FDI for 2012 is abut $1bn, which is far below what we need. One should wonder when GDP is growing at 8%, and budget deficit at 7-8% why people are not investing, and taking their fund away.

Anyhow I am not trying to spread the rumors and pessimism. As a Sri Lankan I think we as a country will do great and all these foreign funds will be pouring in. BUT we need to restore confidence in the market and in general business enviornment, for that its all about policies and consistency.

Tiger wrote:

swan03 wrote:

Tiger wrote:I think now CSE at a different stage, correction is more less is over, now its about confidence and clarity of policies.

If regulators can clear about the policies and be consistent with it, the confidence will be restored back to the market. However it can take time. For example if SEC says "NO" to credit relaxation there could be sudden drop in the market, such uncertinity keeps investors and traders away.

Tiger, you mean the out come of the meeting will be bad? Is that why the market coming down like this?

No dear, I don't know anything about that.
However I would be very much wonder the professionalism if they allow broker credit more than 100%, because brokers are not banks. However my feeling is that they will allow more credit under a different mechanism.

What I am saying is its not about liquidity now, its about investor confidence. Money is there with investors. When we say that market has lost this many billions and so on, where has this money gone??? Its with those who sold High. All the money circulated is still in the system.

Why do foreign investors selling? because of unsustainable exchange rate policy, the rupee was artificially kept high over last 2 years. That was expecting FDI inflows into the country which never materiarised, even Govt. estimates of FDI for 2012 is abut $1bn, which is far below what we need. One should wonder when GDP is growing at 8%, and budget deficit at 7-8% why people are not investing, and taking their fund away.

Anyhow I am not trying to spread the rumors and pessimism. As a Sri Lankan I think we as a country will do great and all these foreign funds will be pouring in. BUT we need to restore confidence in the market and in general business enviornment, for that its all about policies and consistency.

Tiger you got the point.
Really appreciate and thanking for the valuable points.

Tiger wrote:

swan03 wrote:

Tiger wrote:I think now CSE at a different stage, correction is more less is over, now its about confidence and clarity of policies.

If regulators can clear about the policies and be consistent with it, the confidence will be restored back to the market. However it can take time. For example if SEC says "NO" to credit relaxation there could be sudden drop in the market, such uncertinity keeps investors and traders away.

Tiger, you mean the out come of the meeting will be bad? Is that why the market coming down like this?

No dear, I don't know anything about that.
However I would be very much wonder the professionalism if they allow broker credit more than 100%, because brokers are not banks. However my feeling is that they will allow more credit under a different mechanism.

What I am saying is its not about liquidity now, its about investor confidence. Money is there with investors. When we say that market has lost this many billions and so on, where has this money gone??? Its with those who sold High. All the money circulated is still in the system.

Why do foreign investors selling? because of unsustainable exchange rate policy, the rupee was artificially kept high over last 2 years. That was expecting FDI inflows into the country which never materiarised, even Govt. estimates of FDI for 2012 is abut $1bn, which is far below what we need. One should wonder when GDP is growing at 8%, and budget deficit at 7-8% why people are not investing, and taking their fund away.

Anyhow I am not trying to spread the rumors and pessimism. As a Sri Lankan I think we as a country will do great and all these foreign funds will be pouring in. BUT we need to restore confidence in the market and in general business enviornment, for that its all about policies and consistency.

While agreeing to your point about the real problem now in the market, the lack of confidence, I would like to correct you about FDIs. We exceeded the FDI target for 2011 by achieving 1.070 b U.S dollars, and our target for 2012 is 1.75b USD.

hariesha, thanks for correction.

thank you all for the contribution. I expected this kind of a discussion & it is going on. Keep it up friends. we need this kind of discussions rather than the bullshit.

Aamiable wrote:Everything seems to be messed up these days. Need to resolve all issues one by one.

so as the CSE

I have two questions.

Let's imagine the government sells the Galle Face Green to a company for 1 billion gain. Does that money also count into FDI?

Why do foreigners don't invest in the stock market but go for direct investment? For example why would they build a hotel from ground up instead of buying hotel shares? Or start up new businesses instead of investing in massive growth companies with massive profits in the stock market now going at bargain prices?

aj wrote:I have two questions.

Let's imagine the government sells the Galle Face Green to a company for 1 billion gain. Does that money also count into FDI?

Why do foreigners don't invest in the stock market but go for direct investment? For example why would they build a hotel from ground up instead of buying hotel shares? Or start up new businesses instead of investing in massive growth companies with massive profits in the stock market now going at bargain prices?

In order for a investment to qualify as FDI, there should be controlling interest transfer.
It will be interesting to see the medium term repercussions of Expropriation Law.

osmand wrote:We can hear like above statements these days from many in the forum & beyond this forum.

My questions are, why it is going down ? what is the reason ? (except the Regulations) pls do not talk about the regulations & regulators. Because now the situation is far beyond of those things.

Who is selling at this level ? - panic sellers, credit clearing ......what else
Because selling is pushing down the indics.

Why tournover is such a low ? - Because of HINWs away from the market ???. It means our CSE is depends on those ???????. Or no credit buying. If it is so our CSE is highly depends on credit ?????

pls share your thoughts. Pls do not throw words to regulators. I did past, but now i realised it is beyond that.

1. Market confidence issues

2. Heavy foreign outflow

3. De-attachment from fundamentals

4. GOSL's investor unfriendly laws

5. High Interest rates

It is "FEAR"
at this juncture "FEAR" is the cause which drag the market down.
Thinking tomorrow market will go further down , today everyone is trying to sell.This happens day by day .

Why "FEAR" ?Reasons for it.shall we discuss...

If one idiot dump shares at a low level, others also follow him like "Eheiyo"