Maharaja's Advice

wisdom79 wrote:Without boasting buy some ANILANA and loll. Buy at the corect time and sell at the bad time.....

Market will remain forever and you will perish soon.

Buy anilana and wait and then sell at 2.00

Maharaja wrote:If anybody have JKH in their portfolios please sell now. It is a very good price now to exit JKH.


Maharaja

Maharaja wrote:

Maharaja wrote:If anybody have JKH in their portfolios please sell now. It is a very good price now to exit JKH.


Maharaja

I remind you again, clear JKH from your portfolios. 
It is like keeping dead animal inside the house. clean the dead animal before the smell spreads inside the house.


Maharaja

sampath.anuradha wrote:කොළඹ කොටස් තවමත් අවුරුදු 8 කට කලින් තිබුණු තැනමයි



[ltr]http://biz.adaderana.lk[/ltr]

Maharaja wrote:Maharaja's call is Immediate EXIT for JKH. 

Now its not the time to think about investing in JKH for any period. Your question can be valid after 18 months.

Price Maharaja will buy ? Only below 60/-
I do not give target price of 60/- but my bid is 60/-


Maharaja.

Maharaja wrote:Maharaja's call is Immediate EXIT for JKH. 

Now its not the time to think about investing in JKH for any period. Your question can be valid after 18 months.

Price Maharaja will buy ? Only below 60/-
I do not give target price of 60/- but my bid is 60/-


Maharaja.

TraderCSE wrote:

Maharaja wrote:Maharaja's call is Immediate EXIT for JKH. 

Now its not the time to think about investing in JKH for any period. Your question can be valid after 18 months.

Price Maharaja will buy ? Only below 60/-
I do not give target price of 60/- but my bid is 60/-


Maharaja.

Who is this "Maharaja"? 

If this happens (At least to a certain extent) where the ASI will ended up? 

I'm not going to argue with his prediction as so far he is correct on ASI prediction though I don't want it to happen in that way.

Anyway I'm also looking at to buy JKH and COMB during next down turn. Need your advise on COMB also.

ruwan326 wrote:

TraderCSE wrote:

Maharaja wrote:Maharaja's call is Immediate EXIT for JKH. 

Now its not the time to think about investing in JKH for any period. Your question can be valid after 18 months.

Price Maharaja will buy ? Only below 60/-
I do not give target price of 60/- but my bid is 60/-


Maharaja.

Who is this "Maharaja"? 

If this happens (At least to a certain extent) where the ASI will ended up? 

I'm not going to argue with his prediction as so far he is correct on ASI prediction though I don't want it to happen in that way.

Anyway I'm also looking at to buy JKH and COMB during next down turn. Need your advise on COMB also.

http://biz.adaderana.lk/කොළඹ-කොටස්-තවමත්-අවුරුදු-8/
Go through this article first and get all the details. You have to learn the hard way when it comes to trading and investing in CSE. Some say wait till 2020 and that is the most childish thing to say. Whether Bull or Bear market you should be able to invest and trade, to do that do your own analysis and be brave to pick the winning shares @the right time. Do not pick a share depending on predictions/rumors/forums or just because some one said   Do your own analysis first by using investing.com,CSE.lk and annual reports and quarter results and etc...........

DS Wijesinghe wrote:

Maharaja wrote:

Maharaja wrote:If anybody have JKH in their portfolios please sell now. It is a very good price now to exit JKH.


Maharaja

I remind you again, clear JKH from your portfolios. 
It is like keeping dead animal inside the house. clean the dead animal before the smell spreads inside the house.


Maharaja

Is this stock in your watch list Maharaja? If so 

1. at what price do you think it is worth for a 5-6 year investment?

2. if you are going to buy this stock at what price would you buy?

ruwan326 wrote:

TraderCSE wrote:

Maharaja wrote:Maharaja's call is Immediate EXIT for JKH. 

Now its not the time to think about investing in JKH for any period. Your question can be valid after 18 months.

Price Maharaja will buy ? Only below 60/-
I do not give target price of 60/- but my bid is 60/-


Maharaja.

Who is this "Maharaja"? 

If this happens (At least to a certain extent) where the ASI will ended up? 

I'm not going to argue with his prediction as so far he is correct on ASI prediction though I don't want it to happen in that way.

Anyway I'm also looking at to buy JKH and COMB during next down turn. Need your advise on COMB also.

http://biz.adaderana.lk/කොළඹ-කොටස්-තවමත්-අවුරුදු-8/
Go through this article first and get all the details. You have to learn the hard way when it comes to trading and investing in CSE. Some say wait till 2020 and that is the most childish thing to say. Whether Bull or Bear market you should be able to invest and trade, to do that do your own analysis and be brave to pick the winning shares @the right time. Do not pick a share depending on predictions/rumors/forums or just because some one said   Do your own analysis first by using investing.com,CSE.lk and annual reports and quarter results and etc...........

TraderCSE wrote:

ruwan326 wrote:

TraderCSE wrote:

Maharaja wrote:Maharaja's call is Immediate EXIT for JKH. 

Now its not the time to think about investing in JKH for any period. Your question can be valid after 18 months.

Price Maharaja will buy ? Only below 60/-
I do not give target price of 60/- but my bid is 60/-


Maharaja.

Who is this "Maharaja"? 

If this happens (At least to a certain extent) where the ASI will ended up? 

I'm not going to argue with his prediction as so far he is correct on ASI prediction though I don't want it to happen in that way.

Anyway I'm also looking at to buy JKH and COMB during next down turn. Need your advise on COMB also.

http://biz.adaderana.lk/කොළඹ-කොටස්-තවමත්-අවුරුදු-8/
Go through this article first and get all the details. You have to learn the hard way when it comes to trading and investing in CSE. Some say wait till 2020 and that is the most childish thing to say. Whether Bull or Bear market you should be able to invest and trade, to do that do your own analysis and be brave to pick the winning shares @the right time. Do not pick a share depending on predictions/rumors/forums or just because some one said   Do your own analysis first by using investing.com,CSE.lk and annual reports and quarter results and etc...........

Thanks Ruwan,

I did every thing before building up current PF. But it is now at 50% lost. Can't see any recovery up to date. If this down trend continues I don't think I can survive any more as I'm on the huge margin.

But hope for the best.

Thanks lot for your advice.

Maharaja wrote:

Eugine Fernando wrote:

Maharaja wrote:

Maharaja wrote:I believe my technical analysis. 6077 will test. 

When everybody including asha phillips said 6200 support said I told No, it will break. 
Likewise 6077 will test for sure.


Maharaja

Though I don't like your comments, I salutes to your predictions. So tell us now what next. :drunken: :drunken:

Thankyou Mr.Fernando. Today ASI reached my support level. Tomorrow we can see how the 6077 support reacts.

What is next ?
I expect a technical bounce tomorrow. But only a short term bounce. Not a market turnaround. Market is in extreme BEAR market category. ASI direction is 100% downwards. 
SO there will only be short term trading opportunities when market moves sideways for 100-150 points. 

Can ASI break 6077 tomorrow ?
Yes, it can break if selling pressure applied. Bad news is still real selling did not begin. Japanese,Korean,Middle-east & European funds didn't even think to exit the counters. So I expect a technical bounce only due to oversold levels in S&P counters.

When to BUY ?

In this kind of extreme BEAR market I cannot recommend to buy. If we analyse the market, nothing is positive. Earlier company earning were good but now if you analyse financial reports, earnings keep dropping. Main sectors - Banking NPLs higher, Int.expenses higher. Construction sector - SME construction companies closing, No FDIs to start new projects. So in next couple of years company earnings will fall further with interest rates crossing sky high levels.

Politics and CSE ?

As I see, we all must follow a wait and see approach till 2020.
Till 2020 there will be no political change. This government will continue till 2020. 

Who will come to power in 2020 ?

The presidential candidate from Pohottu party will surely win the contest without doubts.

Will CSE rise in 2020 ?

I am doubtful. As soon as Pohottu party wins, the European trade bans will be put. Fish ban will come into effect. Human rights cases against SL will begin once again. So conditions will be worse for the country and CSE after election.
But political stability will be there in the country. New investments will begin to flow.
So there will be mixed effects which we will see. It is too early to predict about about these political effects.


When to enter this bear market ?

After presidential election in 2020 we have to see if the new Pohottu government will actually do a change to the economy. If they are able to bring proper growth to country then CSE will grow.
If they also eat the economy CSE will fall.
SIMPLE AS THAT.

Till then we have to follow a wait and see approach.


What is next support level ?

6000 is the psychological support level. Not a technical support level. 
If 6077 breaks, next is 6020-6023 area support. 
And after 6020-6023, it is down to 5800 support. This is really a strong support. I don't think market needs to test this level soon. May be this month end/ next month it is possible but not this week.


Happy trading,
Maharaja

Maharaja wrote:

Maharaja wrote:

Eugine Fernando wrote:

Maharaja wrote:

Maharaja wrote:I believe my technical analysis. 6077 will test. 

When everybody including asha phillips said 6200 support said I told No, it will break. 
Likewise 6077 will test for sure.


Maharaja

Though I don't like your comments, I salutes to your predictions. So tell us now what next.

Thankyou Mr.Fernando. Today ASI reached my support level. Tomorrow we can see how the 6077 support reacts.

What is next ?
I expect a technical bounce tomorrow. But only a short term bounce. Not a market turnaround. Market is in extreme BEAR market category. ASI direction is 100% downwards. 
SO there will only be short term trading opportunities when market moves sideways for 100-150 points. 

Can ASI break 6077 tomorrow ?
Yes, it can break if selling pressure applied. Bad news is still real selling did not begin. Japanese,Korean,Middle-east & European funds didn't even think to exit the counters. So I expect a technical bounce only due to oversold levels in S&P counters.

When to BUY ?

In this kind of extreme BEAR market I cannot recommend to buy. If we analyse the market, nothing is positive. Earlier company earning were good but now if you analyse financial reports, earnings keep dropping. Main sectors - Banking NPLs higher, Int.expenses higher. Construction sector - SME construction companies closing, No FDIs to start new projects. So in next couple of years company earnings will fall further with interest rates crossing sky high levels.

Politics and CSE ?

As I see, we all must follow a wait and see approach till 2020.
Till 2020 there will be no political change. This government will continue till 2020. 

Who will come to power in 2020 ?

The presidential candidate from Pohottu party will surely win the contest without doubts.

Will CSE rise in 2020 ?

I am doubtful. As soon as Pohottu party wins, the European trade bans will be put. Fish ban will come into effect. Human rights cases against SL will begin once again. So conditions will be worse for the country and CSE after election.
But political stability will be there in the country. New investments will begin to flow.
So there will be mixed effects which we will see. It is too early to predict about about these political effects.


When to enter this bear market ?

After presidential election in 2020 we have to see if the new Pohottu government will actually do a change to the economy. If they are able to bring proper growth to country then CSE will grow.
If they also eat the economy CSE will fall.
SIMPLE AS THAT.

Till then we have to follow a wait and see approach.


What is next support level ?

6000 is the psychological support level. Not a technical support level. 
If 6077 breaks, next is 6020-6023 area support. 
And after 6020-6023, it is down to 5800 support. This is really a strong support. I don't think market needs to test this level soon. May be this month end/ next month it is possible but not this week.


Happy trading,
Maharaja

Good to see a green market after a long time.
Sideway movement like this can swing between 6020 area and 6200 area. As Maharaja told 10% profit is possible.

Now I will give my next prediction.
Market will test ASI 5800. I am telling this while market is in upswing. 



Maharaja

Small Investor wrote:What is the definition for the term "Market Crash"?

As I have heard/learnt it's "a decline of 10% or over of the indices just in one day" ?Has this happened after this thread is opened. No.

It will never happen, unless, the current Macro/Micro economic/political variables change or turn negative so rapidly that it induces  such a catastrophe.   

What you all witness now a days is not a Market Crash but a normal decline of indices in response to Macro and Micro economic factors/variables of our country and the world at large.

My advise is that this should be taken as an opportunity to slowly collect value stocks in small quantities with cash(not on credit).

jayathu wrote:what ever said and done we have to accept that maharaja prediction was somewhat right that market will come down 6077.

His prediction of JKH coming to 60 level is wrong, thats what i believe. It wont come below 100 level if they have 2-6 bad qtrs. They're aggressively in property business and building up capacity in other segment.Those business efficiently turnaround and show good bottom line growth. Right now with JKH, it's wait n see approach. If u have holding power accumulate now and keep some cash in reserve. If next two to three qtrs are not as expected there might be a chance of collecting at 120 level.

Right now market is going sideways. My prediction is invest half of your allocated funds in equity now and see next two qtrs. Enter again in 2019 after march to avg your price or consolidate your original position.  

jayathu wrote:what i said was he predicted it'll come down to 6077 level and it'll support there. Which was right when you saw what happened last two weeks. If u go through this thread, everyone blasted him it wont come down to 6077 level.

DS Wijesinghe wrote:On 17th May 2017 Mark Levin predicted a miserable future for John Keels till 2020 in this forum. I am copying and pasting below his post.



A recent Analysis of John Keells done by an International Fund Management Company. Some say Khazanah Nasional Berhad Fund of Malaysia will start shedding the shares.

Sri Lanka's John Keells at a Decisive Moment and at a Miserable Future until 2020


In order to fund the Watefront Project (Cinnamon Life) JKH raised Rs.23.1 billion (approx US$ 178mn) in FY 2013/14 by way of a rights issue attached with two types of warrants. Subsequently by excising the warrants Rs.8 billion was raised in 2015 but however the 2016 warrant was heavily undersubscribed. Only Rs.3.2 billion was raised from it though it was supposed to raise Rs.8.6 billion. This was because investors were doubtful about the success of this project and how wisely JKH has used the cash from the rights issue.

Extraordinary gains and interest income from the recent rights issue have buoyed earnings during the last several years. In 2016, interest income of Rs.8,011mn amounted to the 42% of PBT and far exceeded the best performing leisure sector which posted pre-tax profit of only Rs2,311mn. Going forward, such large amounts of interest income may not recur as rights issue proceeds will get utilized in the Water Front Project in the next two years.  

"Waterfront Project” is now behind schedule and there has been a cost overrun in the piling stage of the project due to unanticipated barriers. Officially there has been an acceptance of an 18 month delay by Hyndai, Keangnam, & Nawaloka (HKN-Joint Venture) that would result in reduction in profitability of the project. 

During FY 2015/16 ROCE of all sectors of JKH have improved. However excluding the Food & Retail, Financial Services, and Transportation Sectors all other major sectors’ ROCE is below the 12 month Treasury Bill yield, with some sectors operating at less than half the TB rate.

JKH management sold down their stakes in Union Assurance, Access Engineering and Expo Lanka Holdings and recognized capital gains of Rs2.2 billion in 2014/15. Reasons for this move have not been satisfactorily explained. As JKH has sufficient cash, perhaps these sales demonstrate a pre-occupation with short-term earnings rather than a long-term strategic focus. However investments in hotels which JKH management are eyeing to dispose are rather difficult to be sold immediately.  Hence there won’t be any capital gains realized through sale of investments in the near future.   

Waterfront Project is the largest private sector investment to date in Sri Lanka with an estimated cost of approximately USD 800 Million. The company has entered in to USD 395 Million syndicated loan facility with Standard Charted Bank being the required debt financing for this project. The massive interest cost of this syndicated loan will be capitalized in to fixed assets under the accruals basis of accounting. However after completing the project the interest cost will get charged to the income statement as an expense which will significantly reduce profitability. The income generated from various buildings of the project will take many years to exceed the interest charge.