TOKYO CEMENT COMPANY (LANKA) PLC

kanishkaecomm wrote:@jaya Can you share the research report please!!!

SUSPENS wrote:Hold one month ...u will get the three figure number...
29.09.2020

Remember RCL .... 75 >>>>>>112

Guaranteed date -  01.11.2020

INDY 500 wrote:Mkt correction is on  the way.
Price will determine on the perception of the share holders.
Do not hold shares in credit basis

EquityChamp wrote:

EquityChamp wrote:I thought its good to wright some thing more on TKYO highlighting what happened, what is happening now and what will happen in future quarters.

TKYO has made a profit of 1.35bn for the 1H of 2019 compared to 0.48bn loss during the preceding year. Why they have made losses was due to increase in raw material cost and the inability to pass down the cost increases to consumer due to controlled cement prices. Then in 2019 government has allowed to increase cement prices by 100/- per bag and this has helped the company to increase the gross margins from 20% to 30% in 2019 and that's where the profits are made.

The 2 Half results announced to investors in early November and investors reacted very positively to it and that's where you all have seen the price went up from 20s to 50+ hoping a similar report in Q3 as well.

Then Q3 report was released on 29th Jan. The third quarter revenue was 1.8bn lower to 2nd quarter and as a result 543mn drop in 3rd quarter PAT to record 260mn. Investors reacted very negatively to this quarter result which brought back the stock price again to 20s with the help of Covid 19 as well. Now do we understand why 3rd quarter revenue was low. We had the presidential election going. After that a government change too happened. In the meantime lot of construction projects were also either moved slowly or put on hold so its obvious a reduction in demand for cement.

Now the fourth quarter report is due. Ideally it should be out by 31st May but delayed this time for some reason. This may be due to lockdowns for two months effectively put things on hold but it will be out by next week most probably. What can we see in that report for Q4. Can it be worse than Q3? As most of us know the delayed project works restarted during Q1 and was running smoothly until such time lock downs happened mid March. But I don't believe the two week's impact can create a major revenue loss for TKYO hence they should report more than 260mn for Q4. Even if it is 300mn still up by 50% compared to the same quarter of 2019. This will give TKYO a full year profit of close to 2bn compared to the loss of 464mn for 2019.

Now the interesting scenario of 2020. Q1 2020 will be no doubt a difficult quarter for them given that a lockdown of two months will significantly reduce their income and I am expecting a loss for them. But however from Q2 onwards what are their for TKYO for positives. The biggest one will be the imposition of higher cess on imported cement that will definitely increase their sales volumes. Next is after the conclusion of GE in early August the government will surely ramp up the construction sector which was in limbo during past five years or so. This again will be positive for TKYO. So all in all what if they manage to record the same PAT as of 2019/2020 in 2020/21 with all these developments. Then what should be the price be. Think all these and try to factor it in to the share price and see the value. Then you can decide whether the current price is an investment mode or a forget-about-it mode.

Good luck

So TKYO has generated good profits as expected mainly due to cost efficiencies. Its interesting to see that investor appetite on TKYO is so strong knowing that they are going to make losses in Apr - June quarters. Well I smell that TKYO will enter to 40s once again in the weeks to come.

abey wrote:60+++++

judecroos wrote:

abey wrote:60+++++

Yes definitely TKYO will break the 60+ next week. As the information I got this should reach 80+ before the end of 2020. Let's hope good things in the future and this counter will surely give you a good return. GL :) :) :)

Mithooshan wrote:Tokyo price appreciation was stuck after It reached RS.46.50. One of the reason for this might be because the share price appreciated from RS.35 to RS.46 within a span of a week. (31%). Many were realizing their gains, even so the price did not go down considerably due to positive outlook for share. A lot of buying is witnessed if you observe the charts. Hence, Now this shows a reversal backed with the financials posted in CSE. (Fundamental backing up technical charts)

Share price is moving up again. Based on the pattern even 55 is possible for tkyo.x and 60+ levels for tkyo.n bridging the gap between two shares.

Can expect a favourable next week !

Teller wrote:Big manipulator is on this share . Who gets into first and get down first will be the winner

• July cement production up by 26% to 413, 000 MT compared to 327, 000 MT in July 2019 
  

ErangaDS wrote:[size=33]Cement production exceeds pre-pandemic levels as construction activities rebound[/size]



5 October 2020 08:57 am - 0      - 99 


A A A

---

• July cement production up by 26% to 413, 000 MT compared to 327, 000 MT in July 2019 
  

Cement production had recovered to pre-pandemic levels as early as in July indicating that the construction sector had resumed activities at a faster pace after a pause during coronavirus related lockdowns. 


According to latest data, the local cement production in July rose by 26.3 percent to 413,000 MT compared to 327,000 MT in the same month in 2019. 


This brought the total domestic production of cement during the first seven months to 2,056,000 MT compared to 1,976,000 MT in the comparable period last year, recording an increase of 4.1 percent. 


The government commenced construction work on the first section of the Central Expressway and announced recently that it was planning to construct 100,000 kilometres of rural roads, connecting them to the main road network, which could provide a significant boost to the infrastructure construction and related sectors such as commercial and residential property development in the surrounding areas. 


Domestic cement production and imports recovered for the first time in June after the setback from coronavirus related lockdowns, but July marked the first time the aggregate production for the first eight months exceeding the year earlier period levels. 


After rising in June on a year-on-year basis, cement imports in July slightly declined to 422,000 MT from 430,000 metric tonnes in the same month a year ago, recording a decline of 1.7 percent, perhaps due to robust production of cement at home.

Total cement imports for the eight months from January through July was still down by 33.7 percent at 1,936,000 MT compared to 2,921,000 MT in the comparable period in 2019.


However, the cumulative cement use—local production and imports taken together—in July alone has risen by 10.4 percent to 835,000 MT from 756,000 MT in the same month last year.  
Despite the robust production of cement, the cumulative cement use in the first seven months of 2020 is still down by 18.5 percent at 3,992,000 MT compared to 4,897,000 MT during the same period last year. 


Due to renewed optimism from the successful pandemic control, the rapid restoration of the economy to the pre-pandemic levels, and the policy and political certainty after elections have boosted business and consumer confidence, adding a tailwind into the country’s construction sector.

• July cement production up by 26% to 413, 000 MT compared to 327, 000 MT in July 2019
  
  

Please don't sell TKYO. Take my word and make this situ. as an advantage to collect at low prices. In a very short time you will realize the value.  

judecroos wrote:

ErangaDS wrote:[size=33]Cement production exceeds pre-pandemic levels as construction activities rebound[/size]



5 October 2020 08:57 am - 0      - 99 


A A A

---

• July cement production up by 26% to 413, 000 MT compared to 327, 000 MT in July 2019 
  

Cement production had recovered to pre-pandemic levels as early as in July indicating that the construction sector had resumed activities at a faster pace after a pause during coronavirus related lockdowns. 


According to latest data, the local cement production in July rose by 26.3 percent to 413,000 MT compared to 327,000 MT in the same month in 2019. 


This brought the total domestic production of cement during the first seven months to 2,056,000 MT compared to 1,976,000 MT in the comparable period last year, recording an increase of 4.1 percent. 


The government commenced construction work on the first section of the Central Expressway and announced recently that it was planning to construct 100,000 kilometres of rural roads, connecting them to the main road network, which could provide a significant boost to the infrastructure construction and related sectors such as commercial and residential property development in the surrounding areas. 


Domestic cement production and imports recovered for the first time in June after the setback from coronavirus related lockdowns, but July marked the first time the aggregate production for the first eight months exceeding the year earlier period levels. 


After rising in June on a year-on-year basis, cement imports in July slightly declined to 422,000 MT from 430,000 metric tonnes in the same month a year ago, recording a decline of 1.7 percent, perhaps due to robust production of cement at home.

Total cement imports for the eight months from January through July was still down by 33.7 percent at 1,936,000 MT compared to 2,921,000 MT in the comparable period in 2019.


However, the cumulative cement use—local production and imports taken together—in July alone has risen by 10.4 percent to 835,000 MT from 756,000 MT in the same month last year.  
Despite the robust production of cement, the cumulative cement use in the first seven months of 2020 is still down by 18.5 percent at 3,992,000 MT compared to 4,897,000 MT during the same period last year. 


Due to renewed optimism from the successful pandemic control, the rapid restoration of the economy to the pre-pandemic levels, and the policy and political certainty after elections have boosted business and consumer confidence, adding a tailwind into the country’s construction sector.

I saw this information in another forum so I thought to share this with our members.
Cement production exceeds pre-pandemic levels as construction activities rebound

• July cement production up by 26% to 413, 000 MT compared to 327, 000 MT in July 2019
  
  

Cement production had recovered to pre-pandemic levels as early as in July indicating that the construction sector had resumed activities at a faster pace after a pause during coronavirus related lockdowns.


According to latest data, the local cement production in July rose by 26.3 percent to 413,000 MT compared to 327,000 MT in the same month in 2019.


This brought the total domestic production of cement during the first seven months to 2,056,000 MT compared to 1,976,000 MT in the comparable period last year, recording an increase of 4.1 percent.


The government commenced construction work on the first section of the Central Expressway and announced recently that it was planning to construct 100,000 kilometres of rural roads, connecting them to the main road network, which could provide a significant boost to the infrastructure construction and related sectors such as commercial and residential property development in the surrounding areas.


Domestic cement production and imports recovered for the first time in June after the setback from coronavirus related lockdowns, but July marked the first time the aggregate production for the first eight months exceeding the year earlier period levels.


After rising in June on a year-on-year basis, cement imports in July slightly declined to 422,000 MT from 430,000 metric tonnes in the same month a year ago, recording a decline of 1.7 percent, perhaps due to robust production of cement at home.

Total cement imports for the eight months from January through July was still down by 33.7 percent at 1,936,000 MT compared to 2,921,000 MT in the comparable period in 2019.


However, the cumulative cement use—local production and imports taken together—in July alone has risen by 10.4 percent to 835,000 MT from 756,000 MT in the same month last year.
Despite the robust production of cement, the cumulative cement use in the first seven months of 2020 is still down by 18.5 percent at 3,992,000 MT compared to 4,897,000 MT during the same period last year.


Due to renewed optimism from the successful pandemic control, the rapid restoration of the economy to the pre-pandemic levels, and the policy and political certainty after elections have boosted business and consumer confidence, adding a tailwind into the country’s construction sector. 
Please don't sell TKYO. Take my word and make this situ. as an advantage to collect at low prices. In a very short time you will realize the value.  :) :) :)

EquityChamp wrote:

EquityChamp wrote:

EquityChamp wrote:I thought its good to wright some thing more on TKYO highlighting what happened, what is happening now and what will happen in future quarters.

TKYO has made a profit of 1.35bn for the 1H of 2019 compared to 0.48bn loss during the preceding year. Why they have made losses was due to increase in raw material cost and the inability to pass down the cost increases to consumer due to controlled cement prices. Then in 2019 government has allowed to increase cement prices by 100/- per bag and this has helped the company to increase the gross margins from 20% to 30% in 2019 and that's where the profits are made.

The 2 Half results announced to investors in early November and investors reacted very positively to it and that's where you all have seen the price went up from 20s to 50+ hoping a similar report in Q3 as well.

Then Q3 report was released on 29th Jan. The third quarter revenue was 1.8bn lower to 2nd quarter and as a result 543mn drop in 3rd quarter PAT to record 260mn. Investors reacted very negatively to this quarter result which brought back the stock price again to 20s with the help of Covid 19 as well. Now do we understand why 3rd quarter revenue was low. We had the presidential election going. After that a government change too happened. In the meantime lot of construction projects were also either moved slowly or put on hold so its obvious a reduction in demand for cement.

Now the fourth quarter report is due. Ideally it should be out by 31st May but delayed this time for some reason. This may be due to lockdowns for two months effectively put things on hold but it will be out by next week most probably. What can we see in that report for Q4. Can it be worse than Q3? As most of us know the delayed project works restarted during Q1 and was running smoothly until such time lock downs happened mid March. But I don't believe the two week's impact can create a major revenue loss for TKYO hence they should report more than 260mn for Q4. Even if it is 300mn still up by 50% compared to the same quarter of 2019. This will give TKYO a full year profit of close to 2bn compared to the loss of 464mn for 2019.

Now the interesting scenario of 2020. Q1 2020 will be no doubt a difficult quarter for them given that a lockdown of two months will significantly reduce their income and I am expecting a loss for them. But however from Q2 onwards what are their for TKYO for positives. The biggest one will be the imposition of higher cess on imported cement that will definitely increase their sales volumes. Next is after the conclusion of GE in early August the government will surely ramp up the construction sector which was in limbo during past five years or so. This again will be positive for TKYO. So all in all what if they manage to record the same PAT as of 2019/2020 in 2020/21 with all these developments. Then what should be the price be. Think all these and try to factor it in to the share price and see the value. Then you can decide whether the current price is an investment mode or a forget-about-it mode.

Good luck

So TKYO has generated good profits as expected mainly due to cost efficiencies. Its interesting to see that investor appetite on TKYO is so strong knowing that they are going to make losses in Apr - June quarters. Well I smell that TKYO will enter to 40s once again in the weeks to come.

So TKYO N is trading at 54 - 55 range. If anyone read carefully what I have posted above and action on it well superb. So now the Q1 of 2020/21 is out. TKYO has surprised me with a growth in earnings YoY even with a steep revenue decline. This gives a hint of what can be expected to come in next three quarters. Initially my estimate was that TKYO will earn similar PAT in 2020/21 to 2019/20 but with this report I am upgrading my target PAT to be increased by 10% - 15% this year compared to last year. With improved market sentiment you can value the share at a double PE to determine the target future price.

Equity Win wrote:can you forecast Tokyo - N and X price in this quarter.

stockback wrote:I Hope two Billion Ruppes for end this quarter. according to my view.

Government takes few decision that is highly advantage for this company.

stockback wrote:I Hope two Billion Ruppes for end this quarter. according to my view.

Government takes few decision that is highly advantage for this company.

subash81 wrote:After covid break TKYO start journey to 60+ 

SANJAYANM wrote:After emerging the infection long term investment shares had changed.
Tokyo,AEL,MELS ,VONE and plantations shares could add to the list with 
some prominent bank shares.