EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC (EXPO.N0000)

Bullish signs: Maersk revision, Evergreen report, Deutsche Bank ‘super cycle’ call

 Thursday, September 16, 2021
 3 minutes read

Seven months ago, Maersk CEO Soren Skou touted Q4 2020 as “the best quarter ever.” Announcing the initial outlook for this year on Feb. 10, he said the best-case scenario “would basically mean for us to do four times what we did in the fourth quarter.”
That outlook has long since been left in the dust. On Thursday, Maersk revised its numbers skyward yet again.
The second half is now looking even more profitable for ocean carriers — and more ominous for cargo shippers — than the first. But the second half may not be the peak: A new forecast from Deutsche Bank argues that container shipping has entered a “super cycle” and ocean carriers will actually rake in more money in 2022 than they will this year.
According to Stifel analyst Ben Nolan, “Container craziness should abate, although we expect not until sometime later next year or perhaps even in 2023.”

Maersk upgrades guidance — again

In February, Maersk announced full-year guidance for earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization of $8.5 billion-$10.5 billion. The high end of the range was roughly quadruple Q4 2020 EBITDA of $2.7 billion.
After the first quarter came in better than the fourth, Maersk upgraded its 2021 guidance to $13 billion-$15 billion. By early August, it was clear that the third quarter would be better than the second, thus another upgrade, to $18 billion-$19.5 billion.

Maersk said Thursday that it expects 2021 EBITDA of $22 billion-$23 billion. The new midpoint is 137% higher than the February midpoint.

Record monthly revenues for Evergreen

Deutsche Bank makes ‘super cycle’ call

EPS wrote:See below quick comparison for the Freight Index increases during Q2, against Q1.
Can anyone guess the profitability for Q2 ?   

EPS wrote:See below quick comparison for the Freight Index increases during Q2, against Q1.
Can anyone guess the profitability for Q2 ?   

Wickyz wrote:චීනයේ ණය උගුලට අසුවූ චීන දේපල වෙළද සමාගම.  2021/09/20 @china


චීනය කඩා වැටීම ආරම්භයක්. ලෝකයටම බලපෑම්.
 ඇමෙරිකා කොටස් වෙළදපොල කඩා වැටේ.
 යුරෝපා කොටස් වෙළදපොල කඩා වැටේ
ඉන්දියාව, සිංගප්පුරුව, බංගලාදේශය, ඇතුළු මුළු ආසියාවේ  සියළුම කොටස් වෙළදපල කඩා වැටේ.


MARKET INSIDER

The global economy could feel the effects of China’s Evergrande crisis. Here’s what investors should know.


චීන  Evergrande සමාගම බංකලොත් බාවය ප්‍රකාශ කිරීමට සැරසේ. (Evergarde යනු චීනයේ ලොකුම දේපල වෙළද සමාගම යි. ) චීන ජනයා evergrande සමාගම වටලයි.

චීනයට යට වී සිටින ලංකාවට මොකක් වේද?

මේ සමග ලංකාවේ මුල්‍ය අර්බුදයත් දෙගුණ තෙගුණ වන ලකුණු.

Wickyz wrote:චීනයේ ණය උගුලට අසුවූ චීන දේපල වෙළද සමාගම.  2021/09/20 @china


චීනය කඩා වැටීම ආරම්භයක්. ලෝකයටම බලපෑම්.
 ඇමෙරිකා කොටස් වෙළදපොල කඩා වැටේ.
 යුරෝපා කොටස් වෙළදපොල කඩා වැටේ
ඉන්දියාව, සිංගප්පුරුව, බංගලාදේශය, ඇතුළු මුළු ආසියාවේ  සියළුම කොටස් වෙළදපල කඩා වැටේ.


MARKET INSIDER

The global economy could feel the effects of China’s Evergrande crisis. Here’s what investors should know.


චීන  Evergrande සමාගම බංකලොත් බාවය ප්‍රකාශ කිරීමට සැරසේ. (Evergarde යනු චීනයේ ලොකුම දේපල වෙළද සමාගම යි. ) චීන ජනයා evergrande සමාගම වටලයි.

චීනයට යට වී සිටින ලංකාවට මොකක් වේද?

මේ සමග ලංකාවේ මුල්‍ය අර්බුදයත් දෙගුණ තෙගුණ වන ලකුණු.

Wickyz wrote:චීනයේ ණය උගුලට අසුවූ චීන දේපල වෙළද සමාගම.  2021/09/20 @china


චීනය කඩා වැටීම ආරම්භයක්. ලෝකයටම බලපෑම්.
 ඇමෙරිකා කොටස් වෙළදපොල කඩා වැටේ.
 යුරෝපා කොටස් වෙළදපොල කඩා වැටේ
ඉන්දියාව, සිංගප්පුරුව, බංගලාදේශය, ඇතුළු මුළු ආසියාවේ  සියළුම කොටස් වෙළදපල කඩා වැටේ.


MARKET INSIDER

The global economy could feel the effects of China’s Evergrande crisis. Here’s what investors should know.


චීන  Evergrande සමාගම බංකලොත් බාවය ප්‍රකාශ කිරීමට සැරසේ. (Evergarde යනු චීනයේ ලොකුම දේපල වෙළද සමාගම යි. ) චීන ජනයා evergrande සමාගම වටලයි.

චීනයට යට වී සිටින ලංකාවට මොකක් වේද?

මේ සමග ලංකාවේ මුල්‍ය අර්බුදයත් දෙගුණ තෙගුණ වන ලකුණු.

 Thursday, September 16, 2021
 3 minutes read

Seven months ago, Maersk CEO Soren Skou touted Q4 2020 as “the best quarter ever.” Announcing the initial outlook for this year on Feb. 10, he said the best-case scenario “would basically mean for us to do four times what we did in the fourth quarter.”
That outlook has long since been left in the dust. On Thursday, Maersk revised its numbers skyward yet again.
The second half is now looking even more profitable for ocean carriers — and more ominous for cargo shippers — than the first. But the second half may not be the peak: A new forecast from Deutsche Bank argues that container shipping has entered a “super cycle” and ocean carriers will actually rake in more money in 2022 than they will this year.
According to Stifel analyst Ben Nolan, “Container craziness should abate, although we expect not until sometime later next year or perhaps even in 2023.”

Maersk upgrades guidance — again

In February, Maersk announced full-year guidance for earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization of $8.5 billion-$10.5 billion. The high end of the range was roughly quadruple Q4 2020 EBITDA of $2.7 billion.
After the first quarter came in better than the fourth, Maersk upgraded its 2021 guidance to $13 billion-$15 billion. By early August, it was clear that the third quarter would be better than the second, thus another upgrade, to $18 billion-$19.5 billion.

Maersk said Thursday that it expects 2021 EBITDA of $22 billion-$23 billion. The new midpoint is 137% higher than the February midpoint.

Record monthly revenues for Evergreen

Deutsche Bank makes ‘super cycle’ call

samaritan wrote:Foreign Purchase of EXPO on 24th Sept'21 (Friday) amounted to 291,000 shares @ Rs 175/50 reflects  the confidence in future growth and earnings of the the logistics giant. 

stockchaser wrote:

samaritan wrote:Foreign Purchase of EXPO on 24th Sept'21 (Friday) amounted to 291,000 shares @ Rs 175/50 reflects  the confidence in future growth and earnings of the the logistics giant. 

Game is with lolc stop there and come here

samaritan wrote:

stockchaser wrote:

samaritan wrote:Foreign Purchase of EXPO on 24th Sept'21 (Friday) amounted to 291,000 shares @ Rs 175/50 reflects  the confidence in future growth and earnings of the the logistics giant. 

Game is with lolc stop there and come here

LOLC Group & Expo will be the stars and lead the bull run commencing today. 

(source: from a tweet by "Arul Raam')

samaritan wrote:

EPS wrote:See below quick comparison for the Freight Index increases during Q2, against Q1.
Can anyone guess the profitability for Q2 ?   

The Q2 & Q3 performance is expected to far exceed the previous quarters. The Company's positive future growth prospects coupled with its strategic acquisitions and planned expansion under a strong parent Company's backing & guidance will take EXPO to greater heights in the future for sure. GL. 

samaritan wrote:

EPS wrote:See below quick comparison for the Freight Index increases during Q2, against Q1.
Can anyone guess the profitability for Q2 ?   

The Q2 & Q3 performance is expected to far exceed the previous quarters. The Company's positive future growth prospects coupled with its strategic acquisitions and planned expansion under a strong parent Company's backing & guidance will take EXPO to greater heights in the future for sure. GL. 

cheetah wrote:Expo is delivering results and it’s actual company. 

Some companies are only telling stories , no outcome .

EXPO has 3 announcements to make next year:

- Building largest warehouse in Kenya for Apparel sector logistics 

- USD 150mn acquisition in Europe to buy out an entire European network of logistics 

- USD 400mn acquisition by SG Holdings for EFL - 11 months due diligence study has started

Who is patient with low average cost will be the largest beneficiary next year !

dhanushkacse wrote:

cheetah wrote:Expo is delivering results and it’s actual company. 

Some companies are only telling stories , no outcome .

EXPO has 3 announcements to make next year:

- Building largest warehouse in Kenya for Apparel sector logistics 

- USD 150mn acquisition in Europe to buy out an entire European network of logistics 

- USD 400mn acquisition by SG Holdings for EFL - 11 months due diligence study has started

Who is patient with low average cost will be the largest beneficiary next year !

trusted and proven ---expo

samaritan wrote:

dhanushkacse wrote:

cheetah wrote:Expo is delivering results and it’s actual company. 

Some companies are only telling stories , no outcome .

EXPO has 3 announcements to make next year:

- Building largest warehouse in Kenya for Apparel sector logistics 

- USD 150mn acquisition in Europe to buy out an entire European network of logistics 

- USD 400mn acquisition by SG Holdings for EFL - 11 months due diligence study has started

Who is patient with low average cost will be the largest beneficiary next year !

trusted and proven ---expo

Ocean Freight Market Update

Asia → North America (TPEB)

• Traffic on the TPEB worsens as the number of vessels awaiting berths has surged in recent weeks at destination (70 vessels awaiting berth at LA/LB) and particularly at origin (150 doing the same at Shanghai and Ningbo). Sustained peak season demand on TPEB continues to produce congestion flare-ups, which in turn breed bottlenecks and strains elsewhere on the trade lane. This cycle of pile-ups worsening, improving, and worsening again is proving to be the new normal and is expected to continue at least through the New Year and likely until inventories are replenished to sufficient levels.
  
  
• Rates October 1 GRI implemented by most carriers.
  
  
• Space Critical
  
  
• Capacity/Equipment Critical/Severe Undercapacity
  
  
• Recommendation Continue to book well in advance (at least 4 to 6 weeks) prior to CRD for best chance of hitting it. Encourage suppliers to support departures from different origin ports. Consider terminating cargo at destination coastal ports to prevent intermodal delays.
  
  

Asia → Europe (FEWB)

• Space and equipment crunches continue. Market demand is consistently exceeding supply, and rates have skyrocketed for quite a long period. Overall space situation is worsened by blank sailings and poor equipment availability. Carriers are overcommitted and are limiting booking acceptance or rolling shipments. With continuous vessel delays and shiftings, schedule reliability is very low.
  
  
• Rates Rates remain at a record high level but have been stable going into September and a marginal increase in October. Most carriers have extended their premium rates.
  
  
• Space Extremely critical space situation
  
  
• Capacity/Equipment Severe equipment shortage across all Asia origins.
  
  
• Recommendation Book at least 4 to 5 weeks prior to CRD. Consider premium options, which may be limited. Be flexible in regard to equipment.
  
  

Europe → North America (TAWB)

• Terminal congestion along the US East Coast is creating a cascade of delays in vessel schedules. Congestion at LAX/LGB port is getting worse with over 70 vessels in queue. Rates remain high and expect to maintain at these levels at least till end of Q4 due to tight capacity.
  
  
• Rates GRI October 1 implemented
  
  
• Space Critical
  
  
• Capacity/Equipment Capacity remains tight for both North Europe and Mediterranean services. Better equipment availability at port, shortages remain at inland depots.
  
  
• Book 5 or more weeks prior to CRD. Request premium service for higher reliability and no-roll guarantees.
  
  

India → North America

• Global port congestion is challenging the repositioning of equipment and available ocean carrier capacity as local ISC governments explore ways to incentivise carriers to support the ISC market
  
  
• Rates Increased for 1H October
  
  
• Space remains a challenge as global congestion is resulting in omissions and altered sailing schedules
  
  
• Equipment of all types are in deficit. Carriers are working to reposition empties while also placing large orders of new equipment. Local governments are looking internally to create monetary incentives to attract ocean carrier support. India is doing this by temporarily extending when carriers must pay import duties on empty containers from 6 to 9 months.
  
  
• Recommendation Use premiums on urgent shipments and shipments with CRD approaching. If routing to USWC, consider rerouting to USEC. Be flexible with inland container depot (ICD) location and equipment type.
  
  

North America → Asia

• Space continues to be tight for USWC POLs. USEC capacity has been more readily available; however, as port congestion continues to increase, there is concern of void sailings occurring due to extensive schedule delays.
  
  
• Rates Multiple GRI’s announced for dry and reefer cargoes on Oct 1 and Oct 15 expected to be implemented..
  
  
• Equipment Deficits on containers and chassis are still plaguing IPI origins. Availability for standard equipment at ports has not been an issue, but any special equipment is hard to come by.
  
  
• Recommendation Please place bookings 4 to 6 weeks in advance to secure your ideal sailing
  
  

North America → Europe

• There is available capacity on the TAEB trade with carriers looking for cargo from the US East and Gulf Coasts. US West Coast service to Europe is extremely tight.
  
  
• Rates to remain steady into October.
  
  
• Equipment Deficits are still plaguing IPI origins. Availability for standard equipment at ports has not been an issue, but any special equipment is hard to come by.
  
  
• Please place bookings 3 to 4 weeks in advance for East Coast/Gulf sailings and 4 to 6 weeks for Pacific Coast sailings.
  
  

Air Freight Market Update

Asia

• N.China: With the upcoming national holiday in mainland China (10/1-10/7) just around the corner, the market remains hot as shippers rush to push out cargo. TPEB rates remain high and capacity is tight, but post-Golden Week, some supply is expected to return to the market, and rates may also start decreasing. The FEWB market is trending similarly to TPEB with capacity also quite tight. LHR rate levels have increased due to a capacity shortage. Lastly, the mainland has recently been affected by rolling power cuts and rationing of power supply largely due to the coal shortage and increased prices in the market. This may result in decreased production and help alleviate the current market constraints however the power situation is ongoing. Overall, we anticipate the market to be relatively quiet from the end of the holiday to the week after.
  
  
• S.China: Capacity in the market continues to be tight and several carriers have canceled flights as a result of numerous flight re-routings to HKG caused by increased Covid cases in China. TPEB and FEWB rates continue to climb in the lead up to Golden Week, and shippers are rushing to ship out their cargo before the holiday.
  
  
• Taiwan: Due to ongoing supply chain constraints around the world some shippers are facing raw material shortages, resulting in delayed production times. Capacity to the USWC is quite full with many technology companies continuing to ship their Q4 volume as scheduled. USEC capacity is very congested and many ORD flights are still cancelled until further notice. Due to the strong market demand some carriers are pushing their express and priority service. Ocean to air conversions are also starting to pick up on FEWB lanes and may lead to tighter capacity to come.
  
  
• SE Asia: Space ex-Northern Vietnam is full until October 7 for all US destinations. Due to SE Asia origins being transit hubs, airlines are sometimes not able to guarantee space even with express rates. The situation is worsening as the US holiday season and year end approaches and more ocean to air conversions are saturating the market. Rate levels are expected to either stay at the current levels or increase come October. Space ex-Southern Vietnam remains extremely tight with rate levels continuing to increase. Rates are expected to climb even higher next month. The Vietnamese government has allowed some factories to resume production in Southern Vietnam, so demand is likely to increase.
  
  

Europe

• Demand stable WoW, various cargo projects on the market from AMS, MXP and OPO airports. Rates still have remained steady as there is enough capacity to meet demand. Some delays for import and export cargo due to high volume experienced at ground handling terminals. FRA and AMS are affected in particular
  
  
• Great news in terms of PAX capacity injection from November onwards on the TAWB. Fully vaccinated EU travelers will be allowed to enter the US, vice versa for US travellers entering the EU. This is promising for air freight, as any uptick in demand before various holidays in the US can be met with more capacity quickly. Potentially a sign of a more stable peak season on TAWB when comparing with other distrusted tradelanes.
  
  
• EU airlines still offer attractive solutions into US hubs via secondary hubs. This is keeping the rate levels stable.
  
  
• Far East Eastbound still recovering, but almost back to full operational capacity. Golden Week is approaching, therefore be prepared for any consignee warehouse closures.
  
  
• US ground handler delays are still 2 days on average. We are also beginning to see a strain on EU export terminals at AMS and FRA, but this is not uncommon as we enter Q4. Manage expectations with clients accordingly for the upcoming quarter
  
  
• Advice continues for all trade lanes ex EU: Place bookings at least 7 days ahead of CRD for most optimal rates and routing solutions.
  
  

Americas

• US: Export demand remains steady and stable. Some capacity constraints are reported, but still manageable. Larger shipments from major outbound gateways can take 2 to 4 days from booking to uplift into the EU, LATAM, or Asia.
  
  
• LAX/ORD/JFK ground handlers continue to face large backlogs and are using off-airport facilities to manage the flood of inbound cargo, which has a trickle-down effect on the export side. Many have implemented new earlier close outs for exports to accommodate the additional time.
  
  
• Recommendation Book early considering the dwell time at airports.
  
  

Updates from Flexport's Customs & Compliance Team

Factory Output News

Freight Market News

Economic highlights from Flexport Chief Economist Dr. Phil Levy

• Canadian parliamentary elections left Prime Minister Justin Trudeau with a plurality.