Cargills Bank reported an EPS of LKR 0.49 per share for the 9 months ended 30th Sep 2023 compared to LKR 0.12 per share in 2022 (More than 300% increase) ahead of Initial Public Offering (IPO) mainly due to capital gains from derecognition of financial assets and other operating Income. https://cdn.cse.lk/cmt/upload_report_file/3118_1704772352765.pdfAccounting...
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Overall soundness of the banking sector as indicated by the BSI improved at end Q3 of 2023 compared to the corresponding period of the previous year. However, the index remained below 100 during the recent past, reflecting the challenging operating environment of the banking sector. Liquidity, market risk, capital adequacy, and profitability sub- indices improved at end Q3 of 2023 compared to Q3 of 2022, while asset quality and efficiency sub-indices deteriorated during the same period. Increasing...
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Prices of many essential goods and services have been increased with effect from 1st January 2024 due to government decision to increase the Value Added Tax (VAT) to 18%. Some of the key price revisions are given below. Fuel Price IncreaseThe Ceylon Petroleum Corporation (Ceypetco) announced that fuel prices will be revised with effect from 5.00 a.m. today (January 01). Petrol 92 Octane: 346 to 366 (
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According to latest trend analysis, Colombo Stock Market All Share Price Index (ASPI) expected to trade between ASPI 10600-9400 during 2024. Key Events - 2024 (1) Annual Reports/3Q Results (Feb/March/April) (2) IMF 2nd Review/4Q Results (May/June) (3) 1Q Results (July/August) (4) 2Q Results (October/November) (5) Elections (November/December) Sri Lanka's cabinet approved a hike in Value Added Tax (VAT) up to 18% from the current 15% with effect...
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The Cabinet recently sanctioned an increase in the Value Added Tax (VAT) rate, is due to come into effect on January 1, 2024. This amendment will increase the rate from the present 15% to 18%, marking the highest level in two decades. Increase of Value Added Taxes from 15% to 18% is expected to result in a sudden increase in retail prices with effect from 1st January 2024, when suppliers pass on VAT to consumers. According to experts any increase in VAT will lead to higher...
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Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals have recovered only 76.32% of 2019 (pre pandemic) levels and 62.6% of 2018 (pre Easter bombing) level in 2023. Sri Lanka target 3mn arrivals in 2024. Sri Lanka's tourism sector has shown a remarkable recovery, with the Central Bank of Sri Lanka reporting a significant surge in earnings. In November 2023, the island nation's tourism revenue reached $205.3 million,...
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Colombo Stock Market, All Share Price Index (ASPI) is currently heading downwards after reaching the peak of ASPI 11,724 on 8th August 2023. As can be seen from the above chart, Colombo Stock Market has taken a significant dive by shedding more than 1,000 points (10%) of its previous gains during the 2H2023. Market is currently fluctuating between ASPI 10,500-10,900 level since October 2023 whilst falling to ASPI 10,471 on 28th November 2023 lowest for 2H2023. Colombo Stock Market recorded...
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Movement of the All Share Price Index (ASPI) before and after the Sovereign Debt Default in April 2022 indicate that Colombo Stock Market is currently in the recovery phase despite current downward trend due to economic and political uncertainty. Colombo Stock Market next support is around ASPI 10,400 level and If misses that next resting point would be around ASPI 9,600.
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Colombo Stock Market ASPI is currently trading above 10,500 Stock Market offers many opportunities to Enter and Exit with Profits. Here is another opportunity in the offing above ASPI 10.500 for those who missed the opportunity to Exit @ ASPI 11,500. Take it or Leave it! Stock Market is currently Hyped by unscruples traders to Exit by over emphasising the success of Debt Restructuring in the backdrop...
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Sri Lanka Stock Market ready for the big fall below ASPI 10,400 according to stock market experts. https://x.com/ChronicleLK/status/1732074531932557532?s=20According to Market Experts: ASI is searching for the direction. Bulls need a candle close above the falling wedge line (10798) to continue the momentum. Meanwhile RSI broken out early now showing...
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Turnaround expected in 2024/25. SHL is financially strong and solvent at company level despite issues at group level.
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The economic downturn in 1Q 2023 hit badly the banking sector as the NPL ratio has elevated to 12.9% from the 4Q 2022 11.5%. The moratorium offered during the pandemic era ends n Jan 2023 and many sectors are still struggling which has put banks in trouble. According analysts Banking Sector NPL's are currently in excess of 18% and expected to rise to 40% if no action taken by the banks or Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) to restructure bad and irrecoverable debts and loans owed to small to medium...
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John Keells Holdings PLC (JKH) share price has failed to surpass LKR 200/= barrier during last 10 years despite its last attempt in September 2023. According to the 12-Year Price Chart, JKH share price continued to trade below the price of LKR 200/= per share with the exceptions in year 2010 and 2013. Current trading price of JKH is LKR 185/= per share whilst Average price during last 12 years is LKR 148/= (Based on 100 day moving average). According to the current trend...
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With the impending demutualisation of the Colombo Stock Exchange (CSE), three investors from Europe have expressed interest in a strategic stake in the entity after the demutualisation process.The 15-member stockbroking firms have got a detailed report done with the help of the IFC on the demutualisation...
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Ajith Fernando, the second largest shareholder and founder of of Capital Alliance PLC (CALT) sold 21.69 million shares at LKR 60.10 per share to Capital Alliance Holdings Ltd at a value of LKR 1.3 Billion immediately after declaration of dividends. According to the disclosure Ajith Fernando is no longer a shareholder of Capital Alliance PLC. CALT Share Price Crash after Exit
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- Sovereign Default: Prior to the Debt Default (8th April 2022) ASPI was 8,135 and market crashed to ASPI 7513 on 25th April 2022 immediately after debt default. - IMF Staff Approval: ASPI 10,102 (16th September 2022) - IMF Board Approval: ASPI 9,699 (20th March 2023) - DDO Approval by GOSL: Prior...
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Above Table indicate % Loss of Banking Sector share value since end September 2023. As predicted by market experts shares prices of all banks have fallen since September 2023. PABC Bank has lost 12.87% share value, closely followed by Seylan Bank with a loss of 11.20%. HNB Bank is the best loser with only 2.47% loss. Accordingly to market experts, the Banking sector share prices are likely to fall further during the remaining weeks of November and in the month of December due to current economic...
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Stock Market offers many opportunities to Enter and Exit with Profits. Here is another opportunity in the offing. Take it or Leave it! https://srilankaequity.forumotion.com/t63018-colombo-stock-market-opportunity-to-exit
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Colombo Stock Exchange (CSE) expected to implement RSS and SBL (Short Selling) on 6th Nov '23. Will it initiate a negative trend which may eventually cause a major down trend and collapse of already depressed Colombo stock market by further 20%? Empirical study by Harvard Law School Forum on Short Selling:First, the punch line of the empirical study: activist short selling, which we call “negative activism,”...
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The Central Bank of Sri Lanka Governor Nandalal Weerasinghe is talking about Commendable Achievements! during his period. Let's examine his achievements. When the Governor Nandalal Weerasinghe came-1. the country's growth rate was 3.4%. He brought it to -7.8%. It's still MINUS, and would be so, for the next several quarters. 2. Interest rates were 8%. Nandalal took it up to 28%, and has now brought it down to 18%. 3. Inflation...
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- Downtrend has been identified and noticed in an around ASPI 11,500 levels due to deteriorating market and macro economic conditions. - Stock Market was hyped by few individuals (HNWI) with vested interest which resulted in ASPI being pushed above 10,000 levels in July 2023. (‘DDO Hype’) - Given the current economic conditions a strong down trend can be identified due to many factors. - Higher consumption and lower productivity during Nov/Dec seasonal period is expected...
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A corporation framework agreement worth US $ 1.565 billion was signed in Beijing on Tuesday by the Port City Economic Commission, China Harbour Engineering Company, Browns Investments and Hunan Construction Investment Group, for the phase two development of the Colombo Port City project. This agreement encompasses the development of the Marina Project, Marina Hotel...
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The Legend for the Next President of Sri Lanka- Richest Person in Sri Lanka - Successful Businessman - Philanthropist and Academic - Member of Parliament - Honest and Candid Politician We wish him all success at the next Presidential Election 2024. https://www.dhammikaperera.lk
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Share prices of all major banks have fallen during the first half of October 2023. Even at this level the Banking Sector is highly inflated when considering the deep recession that Sri Lanka is experiencing. When the 2nd quarter results are out, the sector will crash beyond recognition. Investors are desperately trying to sell and exit, without triggering a major meltdown. Banking Sector share values based on Net Asset Value (Adjusted) as given below indicate that shares are...
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“Program Risks” which are termed “exceptional” by the IMF staff themselves, will almost certainly materialize and negate the entire program. The IMF Staff candidly acknowledge in their Report of March 2023 that the Risks of Sri Lanka’s Program are “exceptionally high”. This is how the Report highlights the risks (page 2). “Program Risks: “Risks to program...
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When the policy rate falls, bank profits can decrease even if the net interest margin still increases.The effect of policy rate cuts on bank lending and risk-taking depends on how the low interest rate environment affects banks’ ability to raise external financing. When interest rates are low, easing monetary policy relaxes banks’ external financing constraint less...
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L-R: Rohana Kumara Wanni Achchge (LOLC Regional Director, Africa), Justin Kagishiro (CEO), and Roshan Abeysinghe Gunawardena (DCEO). FEATURED: LOLC Mauritius Holdings Ltd acquires Unguka Bank PLC in RwandaEXCERPTS FROM THE ARTICLE:
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As per the information collected through the Condominium Market Survey conducted by the Central Bank of Sri Lanka, transactions recorded in the primary condominium market remained at low levels during Q2, 2023. The Condominium Property Volume Index which measures the trend in number of new condominium sales, declined marginally by 1.3 per cent on a year-on-year basis. Meanwhile, new condominium prices in the Colombo district prevailed at high levels during the quarter, with a 10.5 per cent year-on-year...
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- Corporate Tax Impact on Earnings Increased Tax implication expected to have full impact in September Quarter. GOSL expected to levy more taxes on banks as per IMF recent review. In this context taxes on Treasury Bill Gains are likely to be included in the budget. Taxation of banks in Sri Lanka remains at a very high level totalling around 60% to 70% of its profits before tax, including the consumption taxes.
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Banking SectorThe Banking Sector reported Net Interest Income of Rs. 328.6 billion for the Q2 of 2023, recording a decline of 12.8 % YoY whilst Gross Income reported a decline of 27.5% YoY. Increased Corporate taxes yet to have the full affect on the Profit after Tax of the Banking Sector. Asset growth of the banking sector continued...
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Entrepreneurs, philanthropists, business owners and former government officials from the US and Russia - Lukoil, Russia Former Vice President Andrei Gaidamaka and T.H. Properties USA CEO and owner Todd Hendricks were among the delegates who visited Port City Colombo to scope out promising investment opportunities in Sri Lanka, last week. In attendance were...
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As given above Government Treasury Bill Rates have fallen from high of 32% p.a to 18% from January to August 2023. How much more can TB Rates fall? How will it impact Banks and Treasury Bond Companies like CALT/CFVF/FCT? Can they maintain the same earnings growth in coming Quarters? Future Outlook does not look all that promising. Why?TB rates went upto 32% p.a due to economic crisis. These Bond Companies only make profits when TB/Interest Rates come down...
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There has been a lot of conversation about Sri Lanka’s DDO, and the supposed impact on the EPF (as well as other superannuation funds). I’ve personally found most of this conversation lacking in analysis and when analysis has been present, to be woefully lacking in the technical reality of how markets work. In this piece, I’m aiming to set out an analytical basis for the impact of the DDO on the EPF - taking an approach that prioritizes...
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Colombo Stock Market capital gains have exceeded over 30% during the last 12 month. (Image-1). The Smart investors who entered the CSE below ASPI 8000 levels which was the lowest level ASPI felt during last 12 months, gained over 30% to dated whilst investors who exited the stock market around ASPI 10,500 levels gained 23%. However the Investors who entering the stock market at current ASPI levels of 11,500 will have to wait until APSI reach 12,540 to make 10% gain. 10,500...
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The Sri Lankan economic crisis is an ongoing crisis in the island country of Sri Lanka that started in 2019. It is the country's worst economic crisis since its independence in 1948. It has led to unprecedented levels of inflation, near-depletion of foreign exchange reserves, shortages of medical supplies, and an increase in prices of basic commodities. The crisis is said to have begun due to multiple compounding factors like tax cuts, money creation, a nationwide policy to shift to organic or...
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Browns Investment PLC (BIL) own Palm Garden Hotel PLC (PALM) via Browns Hotels and Resorts Limited. PALM owns Eden Hotel Lanka PLC (EDEN). EDEN owns 600 hotel rooms excluding Maldives. EDEN has 158 rooms of its own in addition to Serendib Hotels PLC (SHOT) which has 366 rooms collectively and 76 rooms of Dickwella Hotel. Of the 366 Rooms owned by Serendib Hotels, 154 rooms by Dolphin Hotel PLC (STAF) and 79 rooms by Sigirya Hotel PLC (HSIG). PALM is also planning to construct...
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Sri Lanka Central Bank Governor has been named as Top Governors of the World by Global Finance Magazine for below heroics. - Sri Lanka's inflation has returned to single digit with no real reduction in prices of consumer goods and services. - Interest rates are being normalised at the expense of EPF/ETF Pension Funds in an incomplete debt restructuring that favour bond traders and banks. - Volatility in the exchange rate has been curtailed with Hot Money deals and Export Taxes....
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Fuel and transport price increases will inevitably flow through to food and other goods, economists said. Fuel prices were increased with effect from midnight on Thursday (31) August 2023. The Ceylon Petroleum Corporation said a litre of 92 Octane Petrol was increased by Rs.13 to Rs.361. - A litre of 95 Octane Petrol was increased by Rs.42 to Rs.417. - A litre of Auto Diesel was increased by Rs.35 to Rs.341. - A litre of Super Diesel was increased by Rs.1 to...
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- Sri Lanka within a period of 7 years have produced some of the top financial and economic experts of the world. Top Central Bank Governor 2023- In. 2023 CSBL Governor Nandalal Weerasinghe has been rated among the top central bank Governors in the world by Global Finance magazine.! https://d2tyltutevw8th.cloudfront.net/media/document/press-release-central-banker-report-cards-2023-1693511830.pdf
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Stock Market investors have yet another opportunity to exit Colombo Stock market after the Covid 19 pandemic which caused economic crisis and sovereign debt default in Sri Lanka prior to the implementation of the IMF proposals and resultant market impact. Tombstones- Covid19 Start: February 2020 - Covid19 End: December 2021 - Economic Crisis Start: January 2022 - Debt Default: April 12, 2022 - IMF Staff Level Approval: September 2022
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Exceptional Profits Reported By Bond Trading Companies (Primary Dealers)Capital Alliance PLC#CALT owned by Ajith Fernando reported exceptional earnings (2.94 bn PAT) in June Q as expected. Q EPS (8.94) has exceeded last year annual EPS. Simply exceptional.
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Wonder of AsiaBond Trading Companies (Primary Dealerships) owned by few individuals make huge profits from Treasury Bills Sales whilst over 2 million EPF members undergo Domestic Debt Restructuring (DDR) and loss of value for their life time savings with no mercy from justice system. In the implementation of DDR, the government has excluded the country’s financial sector, mainly represented by banks and non-bank financial institutions since they are already...
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#SriLanka: Economy is yet to face serious crisis. - manipulated inflation Rate - Half Baked DDR - Contracting GDP Growth - Unstable Exchange Rate - falling Corporate Earnings - Overhyped stock market - Pending presidential elections Look below: Argentina Example. In the coming months, Sri Lanka's path will be shaped, possibly following the examples of...
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Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals have recovered only 62.38% of 2019 (pre pandemic) levels in 2022. As a result Sri Lanka tourism recovery prolonged until 2024 to reach 2.3 mn tourist arrivals recorded in 2018.
The Tourism Ministry announced this week an ambitious target of luring 1.5 million international visitors in 2023 and double of that (3 million) in 2024.
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Sri Lanka Exchange Rate USD/LKR remain highly unpredictable due to FX shortages expected to be faced by the banks. Banks could face significant capital and FX shortfalls as a result of a sovereign debt restructuring. A sovereign debt restructuring will crystalize both sovereign credit risk and FX risk facing the banks. Banks’ exposure to the public sector as of end-September 2022 amounts to 33 percent of projected 2022 GDP, more than 5 times their total capital of 61⁄2...
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Extracts from the official valuation given in the prospectshttps://cdn.cse.lk/pdf/upcoming_listing/prime-pros6-23-04-2021.pdfWe have carried out a detailed analysis of the business operations of PLR to arrive at an average of the Discounted Cashflow based valuation method and P/E multiples based method on trailing 12 months’ earnings and forward earnings, and the results have been summarized below
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Japanese funded Light Rail Transport (LRT) from Colombo to Malabe (15km) Cost US$ 1.9bn compared to recently approved IMF facility of US$2.9bn. LRT cost is equivalent to almost 3 Southern expressways. Instead just serving minor section of the community, Government of Sri Lanka should utilise funds to expands current road network covering entire Sri Lanka by connecting the current expressways and creating new townships which will contribute more significantly to the future growth of...
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- Blue Ocean Residencies (BORL) enters the Colombo Stock Market via the acquisition of the Kelsey Development PLC (KDL). -BORL is a company headed by wellknown property developer Sivarajah Thumilan - BORL acquired 60% stake (10,457,564 Shares) in Kelsey Developments PLC (KDL) on 15th November 2022 for a consideration of LKR 257.25 Mn (LKR 24.6 per share). - Independent Advisor has advised the shareholders to divest KDL Shares at the mandatory offer at LKR 24.60/= -...
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BANKING SECTOR Price Range for Banking Sector Investors based on 4x PER and 0.5x PBV #SrilankaDownload Report: www.stockplanets.com/research
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