See the reality now

I was so sure about a blood bath last week. But it was not so. So you were all taken for a ride by the market behavior.
But all the signs of a blood bath are still there more clearly than before. Brokers did their best to maintain the indices ( ASPI & Milanka) without falling with the help,of the new system.
But next ten days is going to be great for swing traders.

Some may charge that I am going to push the market down to collect at low rates. They make me laugh.

I thought I shoud not look at the charts for next week or so..
Also thinking whether I should sell my last few tiny qty of remaining shares and collect lower than that or forget and hold..

Stockmate wrote:I was so sure about a blood bath last week. But it was not so. So you were all taken for a ride by the market behavior.
But all the signs of a blood bath are still there more clearly than before. Brokers did their best to maintain the indices ( ASPI & Milanka) without falling with the help,of the new system.
But next ten days is going to be great for swing traders.

Some may charge that I am going to push the market down to collect at low rates. They make me laugh.

Thanks for your expert openion. Can you support your point with technical charts. That will be useful for novices.

I am waiting to collect below ASI 4000. Wonder how long I should wait.
My estimate is within 2~3 months.

BTW: Political situation might even make it within weeks

Stockmate wrote:I was so sure about a blood bath last week. But it was not so. So you were all taken for a ride by the market behavior.
But all the signs of a blood bath are still there more clearly than before. Brokers did their best to maintain the indices ( ASPI & Milanka) without falling with the help,of the new system.
But next ten days is going to be great for swing traders.

Some may charge that I am going to push the market down to collect at low rates. They make me laugh.

Thanks mate for your valuable comments which I always appreciate.

Stockmate wrote:
Some may charge that I am going to push the market down to collect at low rates. They make me laugh.

Few members who brought share for higher price dont like to see Threads saying "ASI will go down" ,as always they just say some try to push the market down to collect low. I didn't had time to look in to charts and bit pissed cus in DFN candlesticks lower shadow end in hell, but so many people saying what u said so lets wait and see

FXX wrote:

Stockmate wrote:
Some may charge that I am going to push the market down to collect at low rates. They make me laugh.

Few members who brought share for higher price dont like to see Threads saying "ASI will go down" ,as always they just say some try to push the market down to collect low. I didn't had time to look in to charts and bit pissed cus in DFN candlesticks lower shadow end in hell, but so many people saying what u said so lets wait and see

FXX big bear,feel sorry for you no ones selling for you know??

"but so many people saying what u said" nice try.right now so many people are waiting without panicking.

rishanpossitive wrote:

FXX wrote:

Stockmate wrote:
Some may charge that I am going to push the market down to collect at low rates. They make me laugh.

Few members who brought share for higher price dont like to see Threads saying "ASI will go down" ,as always they just say some try to push the market down to collect low. I didn't had time to look in to charts and bit pissed cus in DFN candlesticks lower shadow end in hell, but so many people saying what u said so lets wait and see

FXX big bear,feel sorry for you no ones selling for you know??

"but so many people saying what u said" nice try.right now so many people are waiting without panicking.

im not buying anything these days so i dont need anyone to sell me anything

"Brokers did their best to maintain the indices ( ASPI & Milanka) without falling with the help,of the new system. ".
This is absolutely wrong.I think most of here are related to broker firms,They don't know nothing.There are lot of people ahead of them who controls market,HNWI and funds.Broker firms did nothing these days market is kept green by some high cap shares like JKH,SLT,DIAL.Do you think brokers put orders to these shares.Noo.Nobody knows.

dont be so negative.... the mentality has changed..... lot of people saw how people like you collected shares for almost half the price last few weeks and our idiots sold what they had and now crying..... you guys cashed in this week and now hoping the same will happen again....... hmmmmmmmmmmm... will be hard this time cause the margins will be more tighter this time cause more are ready to play your guys game... so it will hit the bottom at 5350 max.... my prediction is.. as soon as the word comes that UNHRC is cleared the market will run up for two three days like bulls and people will cash in and it will end around 5600 to 5700 for some time till the next good or bad news thats going to effect it.... but most likely it will go down gradually but not yet as you says... right now all r waiting for some good news to boost and cash in....

I dnt know why,but market dont come down fast as i expects
my only issue is this damn trading platform,it makes market up

I did a lot of buying on 13/14 of february when the market went down, here's how my portfolio looked then:

https://2img.net/h/oi39.tinypic.com/2a5dnix.jpg (14/02/2012)

Within a couple of days the market went up, more than I expected:

https://2img.net/h/oi41.tinypic.com/qqoky0.jpg (23/02/2012)

About a week ago I decided to get out from some of the counters with a small amount of profit. This is how my portfolio looks like now:

https://2img.net/h/oi41.tinypic.com/sobdc8.jpg

I'm a bit sceptic about the market, this is why I decided to back off a little. Following are my reasons:

- Quarterly reports of many companies are OK, but not "impressive" IMHO (except for few).

- Given the unstable economic conditions (floating of rupee, unstable policies, fuel price hike, credit growth cap on banks, increasing interest rates etc.) It's bit hard to imagin that the next couple of months would bring a lot of profits for companies. I don't intend to mean that they'll do bad, but I can hardly see how they'll do better than what they are doing now.

- Market psyche: from this forum, day to day trading activities and from the news I'm seeing, I got the feeling that market is struggling to keep it's current position. I fear that a small negative fall could bring an avalanche with it.

- Can there be a positive change in economic conditions that could boost the market mentality within the year? I can hardly think of one.

Please note that I'm not an expert, I started trading from 2011, so don't take my word serious (and as you can see, I'm a puny little retailer). I'm just explaining what I did and the reasons for doing so. Market can go either way - and I'm prepared for both

Cheers!

K.Haputantri wrote:

Stockmate wrote:I was so sure about a blood bath last week. But it was not so. So you were all taken for a ride by the market behavior.
But all the signs of a blood bath are still there more clearly than before. Brokers did their best to maintain the indices ( ASPI & Milanka) without falling with the help,of the new system.
But next ten days is going to be great for swing traders.

Some may charge that I am going to push the market down to collect at low rates. They make me laugh.

Thanks for your expert openion. Can you support your point with technical charts. That will be useful for novices.

My DFN technical charts are Totally wrong after the updation. Has anybody experienced errors in the charts? From the updation date, yet no turnover or volume graf working.

It is very clear that new system can be manipulated easily.
ASI we are looking at is not the actual ASI but a manipulated figure.
For example all of following symbols have traded less than 100 shares, but at a highly exaggerated price.
Price difference between last trade to current bid shows the real picture.
You think your shares are valued at Rs.x,
but in reality you can't get no where close to that value if you decided to sell.

In my opinion actual ASI is about 6~8% less than what is shown.
In yesterdays case, although the ASI is shown as 5460 actual may be as low as 5000~5100.

rishanpossitive wrote:"Brokers did their best to maintain the indices ( ASPI & Milanka) without falling with the help,of the new system. ".
This is absolutely wrong.I think most of here are related to broker firms,They don't know nothing.There are lot of people ahead of them who controls market,HNWI and funds.Broker firms did nothing these days market is kept green by some high cap shares like JKH,SLT,DIAL.Do you think brokers put orders to these shares.Noo.Nobody knows.

My bearish mood will not change until posts of this nature disappear from the forum. We see quite a few Positives, Rajas and 123s still active, who fail to to see the obvious or wish to suppress the truth to mislead others.

rishanpossitive wrote:"Brokers did their best to maintain the indices ( ASPI & Milanka) without falling with the help,of the new system. ".
This is absolutely wrong.I think most of here are related to broker firms,They don't know nothing.There are lot of people ahead of them who controls market,HNWI and funds.Broker firms did nothing these days market is kept green by some high cap shares like JKH,SLT,DIAL.Do you think brokers put orders to these shares.Noo.Nobody knows.

Absolutely .

Leo wrote:
My DFN technical charts are Totally wrong after the updation. Has anybody experienced errors in the charts? From the updation date, yet no turnover or volume graf working.

http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t16417-directfn-wrong-data

on 7th March they are going to do a new release

Dileepa wrote:It is very clear that new system can be manipulated easily.
ASI we are looking at is not the actual ASI but a manipulated figure.
For example all of following symbols have traded less than 100 shares, but at a highly exaggerated price.
Price difference between last trade to current bid shows the real picture.
You think your shares are valued at Rs.x,
but in reality you can't get no where close to that value if you decided to sell.

In my opinion actual ASI is about 6~8% less than what is shown.
In yesterdays case, although the ASI is shown as 5460 actual may be as low as 5000~5100.

Dear Dileepa,
May be you are trying to say that the possibility of manipulating is much easier with the new system than the old one.Yes I too agree with you to some extent. But in the same time if someone can do so with one or two shares even a small investor too take action against that. Isn't it?

However , I cant agree with your view on the ASI figures. It is a totaly wrong asumption based on incorrect numbers and it would misguide the small investors. May be you have not done that intentionaly and you wanted to invite the attention of the members on the weakness of the new system.
Anyway, I just collected actual figures from JBS website and found that sale of small quantities by any party(either brokers or manifulaters )yesterday has not pushed the ASI or MILANKA up.

I will give below the actual figures relating to the shares you mentioned These details include price change(+ or -),volume of sale, and affect to index by each counter:

PARA
-Price change = +95.00
-Volume = 1
-Affect to Index =+0.03

IDL
-Price change = + 4.90
-Volume = 5
-Affect to Index =+0.06

JFIN
-Price change = +9.10
-Volume = 99
-Affect to Index =+0.87

ASHA
-Price change = (-14.00)
-Volume = 2
-Affect to Index =(-0.85)

MSL
-Price change = +51.30
-Volume = 26
-Affect to Index = +0.40

AGST
-Price change = (-1.00)
-Volume = 2
-Affect to Index =(-0.84)

SFL
-Price change = +17.00
-Volume = 1
-Affect to Index = +0.29

TANG
-Price change = (-2.00)
-Volume = 1
-Affect to Index = (-0.11)

ASHO
-Price change = (-3.60)
-Volume = 1
-Affect to Index = (-0.04)

According to above figures total positive= 1.65 and Total negative 1.84. Therfore net effect to the ASI is negative 0.19. That means instead of ASI increase, the above transaction has brought down the ASI by 0.19 points . So Small sales have not affected to enhance the indices.

Rajaraam wrote:

Dileepa wrote:It is very clear that new system can be manipulated easily.
ASI we are looking at is not the actual ASI but a manipulated figure.
For example all of following symbols have traded less than 100 shares, but at a highly exaggerated price.
Price difference between last trade to current bid shows the real picture.
You think your shares are valued at Rs.x,
but in reality you can't get no where close to that value if you decided to sell.

In my opinion actual ASI is about 6~8% less than what is shown.
In yesterdays case, although the ASI is shown as 5460 actual may be as low as 5000~5100.

Dear Dileepa,
May be you are trying to say that the possibility of manipulating is much easier with the new system than the old one.Yes I too agree with you to some extent. But in the same time if someone can do so with one or two shares even a small investor too take action against that. Isn't it?

However , I cant agree with your view on the ASI figures. It is a totaly wrong asumption based on incorrect numbers and it would misguide the small investors. May be you have not done that intentionaly and you wanted to invite the attention of the members on the weakness of the new system.
Anyway, I just collected actual figures from JBS website and found that sale of small quantities by any party(either brokers or manifulaters )yesterday has not pushed the ASI or MILANKA up.

I will give below the actual figures relating to the shares you mentionedhe details include price chage+ or -,volume of sale, and affect to index by each counter:

PARA
-Price change = +95.00
-Volume = 1
-Affect to Index =+0.03

IDL
-Price change = + 4.90
-Volume = 5
-Affect to Index =+0.06

JFIN
-Price change = +9.10
-Volume = 99
-Affect to Index =+0.87

ASHA
-Price change = (-14.00)
-Volume = 2
-Affect to Index =(-0.85)

MSL
-Price change = +51.30
-Volume = 26
-Affect to Index = +0.40

AGST
-Price change = (-1.00)
-Volume = 2
-Affect to Index =(-0.84)

SFL
-Price change = +17.00
-Volume = 1
-Affect to Index = +0.29

TANG
-Price change = (-2.00)
-Volume = 1
-Affect to Index = (-0.11)

ASHO
-Price change = (-3.60)
-Volume = 1
-Affect to Index = (-0.04)

According to above figures total positive= 1.65 and Total negative 1.84. Therfore net effect to the ASI is negative 0.19. ( That means instead of ASI increase, the above transaction has brought down the ASI by 0.19 points . So Small sales have not affected to enhance the indices.

If someone wants to tumble the ASPI or move up, he needs to play with the high cap shares namely JKH,CARS,SLTL etc.
Which I do not think that much one can do.
This is Sri Lanka if they want they can do whatever they want.

yeah everywhere bloodbath & everyone talks about blood bath

If someone wants to tumble the ASPI or move up, he needs to play with the high cap shares namely JKH,CARS,SLTL etc.
Which I do not think that much one can do.
This is Sri Lanka if they want they can do whatever they want..
Redbulls
Manager - Equity Analytics

Yes Redbulls, Under any circumpstance.

After the new system was implemented my DirectFN gives wrong charts. So I can not publish charts. My broker says they are updating the system . It is not yet over.

Stockmate wrote:After the new system was implemented my DirectFN gives wrong charts. So I can not publish charts. My broker says they are updating the system . It is not yet over.

7th of march they going to release a new version
http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t16417-directfn-wrong-data

Do not separate the stock market from the current economy. It can not stand alone. Now we must watch the economy more closely. Economy is hell bent. There is nothing to be happy about the economy and the people
who handle it.
Pay attention to:-
Rupee depreciation
Trade balance
Debt
Government giving priority to wrong projects
Economic recession in Europe
ect

Foreign presence improves when the rupee weakens.

Stockmate wrote:After the new system was implemented my DirectFN gives wrong charts. So I can not publish charts. My broker says they are updating the system . It is not yet over.

Thank you Stockmate. New system is killing us. Puwak gahe naggath debeleyak. Monawa karannada Dr.TK save us from this mess.