GRAN & TAFL - 1Q2011 results out on cse website

As some one calculated before GRAN forward yearly earnings = 1.57*4 = 6.28!
Current PE ratio = 145.50/6.28 = 23.18
According to some one when first run take it past 300 PE ratio = Over 50!

econ wrote:We can not compare 4th quarter to 1st quarter in a year for food related stocks. 4th quarter is a festive season and demand for foods are extreamly higher. infact both GRAN and TAFL has increased revenue and profit significantly compare with 2010 1st quarter..

Revenue 2010(Q1) 2011(Q1) Growth
GRAN 1.8 b 2.2 b 26%
TAFL 240m 331m 38%

Profit 2010(Q1) 2011(Q1) Growth
GRAN 57m 94m 64%
TAFL 0.5m 41m NM

Are you not the guy who forcasted EPS of Rs 4 for this quarter and annualized it to Rs 16 EPS for year! Then ou went on to multiply it by PE ratios of over 20 if I remember just a day or 2 ago!

Ps:- Reguarding http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:RSf87GGSZucJ:forum.srilankaequity.com/t131-still-chance-for-bfl-tafl-and-gran+http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t131-still-chance-for-bfl-tafl-and-gran&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=lk&source=www.google.lk
Nice to know I actually cared those days to explain so humbly to people who are too stubborn to learn!

Antonym wrote:For those who are clinging on steadfastly to yesterday's winners, there's a word for this: 'Rationalizing'.

People anyway believe what they want to. They find it convenient to cling on to arguements that support their point of view and disregard those that don't; that's a human tendency. Guard against such emotional traps. What if the other guy is right?

Remember: The human mind is like a parachute; it works best when it is open!

+ from me what you said.
It is extremely funny to see pessimistic and optimistic view of the people and try to defend their views. Some people have extreme pessimism of the market - Taking lot about manipulation of the market. But missing good opportunities. Others are so optimistic putting so many facts and figures to prove their views. I think to be successful trader person have to undone all those external biases and analyses what you own.

Rajitha wrote:

econ wrote:We can not compare 4th quarter to 1st quarter in a year for food related stocks. 4th quarter is a festive season and demand for foods are extreamly higher. infact both GRAN and TAFL has increased revenue and profit significantly compare with 2010 1st quarter..

Revenue 2010(Q1) 2011(Q1) Growth
GRAN 1.8 b 2.2 b 26%
TAFL 240m 331m 38%

Profit 2010(Q1) 2011(Q1) Growth
GRAN 57m 94m 64%
TAFL 0.5m 41m NM

Are you not the guy who forcasted EPS of Rs 4 for this quarter and annualized it to Rs 16 EPS for year! Then ou went on to multiply it by PE ratios of over 20 if I remember just a day or 2 ago!

Ps:- Reguarding http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:RSf87GGSZucJ:forum.srilankaequity.com/t131-still-chance-for-bfl-tafl-and-gran+http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t131-still-chance-for-bfl-tafl-and-gran&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=lk&source=www.google.lk
Nice to know I actually cared those days to explain so humbly to people who are too stubborn to learn!

Rajitha> I have never said in this quarter they will report 4 EPS. I said it can report around 4 EPS in next few quarters assming increased demand for poultry products. I have always talked about the long term value of poultry sector. but in this quarter poultry sector seem to affect by high maize price and government imports of chicks from india which I belive are short term effects.

Perpetual (Perpetual Capital and Perpetual Assest Management) has sold more than 2.5 Mn shares of GRAN

As at 30th Dec 2010 - 5.59%
As at 31st March 2011 - 1.67%

I expect the share price of GRAN to stagnate for few qurarters till better eps show.

i dont think its ethical to pointing each other... I have seen many experts making wrong decisions here... so no point of pointing each other... n i guess we got nothing to celebrate....

When the results were out.... after market closed or before....

ipoguru wrote:When the results were out.... after market closed or before....

after the market close.. Thats the normal procedure.

econ wrote:

Rajitha> I have never said in this quarter they will report 4 EPS. I said it can report around 4 EPS in next few quarters assming increased demand for poultry products. I have always talked about the long term value of poultry sector. but in this quarter poultry sector seem to affect by high maize price and government imports of chicks from india which I belive are short term effects.

Yes you just said this!

econ wrote:

Rajitha wrote:

econ wrote:In the next run it may end up in 300s. it was trade at 50s 6months ago.
so dont worry it has long term value.. its price increase not because of manupulation. it had a massive growth of profit last year.

Can you please explain how you get to a figure of over Rs 300 for GRAN over twice the current market price? Or is that just a number you thought of to make him by the share?

As you said
6 months ago share price Rs 57.10 and known quarterly EPS Rs 2.42
Now Share price Rs 147.50 known quarterly EPS Rs 3.42
when EPS risen for the poultry sectors best quarter by 41.3% the price has risen by 176%!

At over Rs 300 to justify its price as you said because of its great earnings increase it should show over Rs 10.90 quarterly earnings! hummmm....

PS:- One of the main people who got the GRAN price high actually sold their share lot with a crossing at Rs 250! They got the rpice to this level as fat as I know to get this deals done! I know this because one of the brokers their when crossing happened was my broker! The people who bought the shares are a quite reputed trust as well and lets see if they can make the share run as its previous owners did!

I said the long term value of GRAN.
I think GRAN can produce 240 million profit mark in next few quarter. so EPS would be around 4. if we annulized it to then 16.
for a instance if you take sector PER as 20 then expected price is 20* 16 = 320.


In my opinion food stocks will be the leaders in next few years.
TAFL,BFL,GRAN,NEST,CIC are favourite shares for next few years.

what will be the market tomorrow....

pls pls.. why this...
econ purely mentioned 'next few quarters' and not 'next quarter'
i'm not implying that it will make such profits, but we don't have to do a postmortem on who said what and argue over that!

npp wrote:pls pls.. why this...
econ purely mentioned 'next few quarters' and not 'next quarter'
i'm not implying that it will make such profits, but we don't have to do a postmortem on who said what and argue over that!

Postmortem may be good for others watching... Then they can determines writers credibility for future posts...

Let Rajitha get some fun because what he said is correct for first quarter... That will motivate him to do further posts... I see him as a guy who speaks bitter truth when others are afraid to do that...

I do not say he is always correct...

Rajitha wrote:



As some one calculated before GRAN forward yearly earnings = 1.57*4 = 6.28!
Current PE ratio = 145.50/6.28 = 23.18
According to some one when first run take it past 300 PE ratio = Over 50!

Still this is not a bad result when we compare to other counters. PE for GRAN is 17 and TAFL is just under 13. Can any one say this is overvalued?

Rajitha, i think you have invested on LDEV. Did you consider PE ratio before you invest?

npp wrote:pls pls.. why this...
econ purely mentioned 'next few quarters' and not 'next quarter'
i'm not implying that it will make such profits, but we don't have to do a postmortem on who said what and argue over that!

I think the understanding of a post, especially reading a sentence is really at kindergarten level for some.. primary motive is to pin point errors of others the time spent on such things could've been easily used to educate a crowd..

ipoguru wrote:

npp wrote:pls pls.. why this...
econ purely mentioned 'next few quarters' and not 'next quarter'
i'm not implying that it will make such profits, but we don't have to do a postmortem on who said what and argue over that!

Postmortem may be good for others watching... Then they can determines writers credibility for future posts...

Let Rajitha get some fun because what he said is correct for first quarter... That will motivate him to do further posts... I see him as a guy who speaks bitter truth when others are afraid to do that...

I do not say he is always correct...

I understand. but as per your point, I don't think that econ was misleading. maybe his prediction went wrong. but that does not mean he is not credible. There is no need to go behind someone so far to say 'you were wrong'. let's keep this forum professional and tidy.

Bottom line is no one here gives/is supposed to give recommendations. Everyone must make their own decision on what is posted here. If someone says, share YYY will touch 200 in a month while currently it is 100, others must not make a decision based on that. decision must be based on facts posted, analyzing all the views shared and mainly own thinking.

I do not post on this forum as much as I used to previously mainly because of two reasons
1) I have more work these days
2) the appearance of posts such as "what hapd to ABC tomo, I bought ABC what should i do, will ABC touch 1000"

Let me do a Analysis about KGAL like that !

WE can at least expect KGAL to have EPS of Rs 25 with the high rubber price in the coming quarter!
So that makes the annualized EPS of Rs 100! When considering sector PE of 16 we can expect this to go past Rs 1600 in the next big rally! OFC if we consider it as a rubber plantation and the best prime stock in plantation sector and put a PE of about 22 then the share price should be around Rs 2200!
SO the share is at a huge discount now!

In my opinion Plantation stocks will be the leaders in next few years.
KGAL, ...,....,.... are favourite shares for next few years.

Rajitha wrote:Let me do a Analysis about KGAL like that !

WE can at least expect KGAL to have EPS of Rs 25 with the high rubber price in the coming quarter!
So that makes the annualized EPS of Rs 100! When considering sector PE of 16 we can expect this to go past Rs 1600 in the next big rally! OFC if we consider it as a rubber plantation and the best prime stock in plantation sector and put a PE of about 22 then the share price should be around Rs 2200!
SO the share is at a huge discount now!

In my opinion Plantation stocks will be the leaders in next few years.
KGAL, ...,....,.... are favourite shares for next few years.

that's way absurd. in which quarter did KGAL report an EPS of 25?

If we could be a little more out of sarcasm, KGAL's Last qtr EPS was 9.15 as stated, and the qtr before that ard 8.65.. a small growth from qtr-qtr.. So with the help of soaring rubber prices this could do more than 10 EPS in Q1/2011..

Hmmm.. thats not fo pun

smallville wrote:If we could be a little more out of sarcasm, KGAL's Last qtr EPS was 9.15 as stated, and the qtr before that ard 8.65.. a small growth from qtr-qtr.. So with the help of soaring rubber prices this could do more than 10 EPS in Q1/2011..

Hmmm.. thats not fo pun

what about the rain we had earlier this year. would it have any effect.

I would more rather look at the growth compared to the corresponding quarter

npp wrote:

ipoguru wrote:

npp wrote:pls pls.. why this...
econ purely mentioned 'next few quarters' and not 'next quarter'
i'm not implying that it will make such profits, but we don't have to do a postmortem on who said what and argue over that!

Postmortem may be good for others watching... Then they can determines writers credibility for future posts...

Let Rajitha get some fun because what he said is correct for first quarter... That will motivate him to do further posts... I see him as a guy who speaks bitter truth when others are afraid to do that...

I do not say he is always correct...

I understand. but as per your point, I don't think that econ was misleading. maybe his prediction went wrong. but that does not mean he is not credible. There is no need to go behind someone so far to say 'you were wrong'. let's keep this forum professional and tidy.

Bottom line is no one here gives/is supposed to give recommendations. Everyone must make their own decision on what is posted here. If someone says, share YYY will touch 200 in a month while currently it is 100, others must not make a decision based on that. decision must be based on facts posted, analyzing all the views shared and mainly own thinking.

I do not post on this forum as much as I used to previously mainly because of two reasons
1) I have more work these days
2) the appearance of posts such as "what hapd to ABC tomo, I bought ABC what should i do, will ABC touch 1000"

I am not quite good in English...
How I define credibility is if some one is correct at least 6 times out of 10 we can say he/she is somewhat credible... if its 9 out of 10 quite credible...

So if you were wrong once it counts to the credibility.... no offence to anyone but its the truth and valid for everyone... The market is not rational so its quite difficult to make predictions...

Its true that its our money and we should think about before investing and if we don't think about it we will suffer....

It should also apply for the posts... If you predict correctly you should get applauded and if you predict wrong you should be willing to get the criticism... Thats how we can get good posts and make the forum more reliable.. Thats how all the good systems evolve in the world...

If someone ask whether ABC share will go up or down ... post your genuine comment if you know about the share and has done research on it with the backing information... If you are correct you will be applauded if you are wrong you will be criticized... Thats how its should be right...

Sorry for writing about rubber on a poultry post...

@mono: On a visit to a plantation in Mawanella, I learned that in the past, the rubber tapper did not extract latex on rainy days, which curtailed his productive days to 110 per year - 30 days being lost due to rain.

But with the introduction of a simple protective device called the ‘rain-guard’, his productivity goes up to 140 days, resulting in the yield increasing by 27%.

ipoguru wrote:
I am not quite good in English...
How I define credibility is if some one is correct at least 6 times out of 10 we can say he/she is somewhat credible... if its 9 out of 10 quite credible...

So if you were wrong once it counts to the credibility.... no offence to anyone but its the truth and valid for everyone... The market is not rational so its quite difficult to make predictions...

Its true that its our money and we should think about before investing and if we don't think about it we will suffer....

It should also apply for the posts... If you predict correctly you should get applauded and if you predict wrong you should be willing to get the criticism... Thats how we can get good posts and make the forum more reliable.. Thats how all the good systems evolve in the world...

If someone ask whether ABC share will go up or down ... post your genuine comment if you know about the share and has done research on it with the backing information... If you are correct you will be applauded if you are wrong you will be criticized... Thats how its should be right...

with due respect, I disagree.

this is not a broker site with brokers to evaluate their 'credibility'. maybe you can call it their success rate. I do not know if there are brokers here bt assuming there are none, all of us here are sharing the knowledge, information gathered and any analysis done.
One may 'expect' a share genuinely to reach a certain value but anything is open for discussion. whether it does or not does not affect 'credibility'

npp wrote:

Rajitha wrote:Let me do a Analysis about KGAL like that !

WE can at least expect KGAL to have EPS of Rs 25 with the high rubber price in the coming quarter!
So that makes the annualized EPS of Rs 100! When considering sector PE of 16 we can expect this to go past Rs 1600 in the next big rally! OFC if we consider it as a rubber plantation and the best prime stock in plantation sector and put a PE of about 22 then the share price should be around Rs 2200!
SO the share is at a huge discount now!

In my opinion Plantation stocks will be the leaders in next few years.
KGAL, ...,....,.... are favourite shares for next few years.

that's way absurd. in which quarter did KGAL report an EPS of 25?

I can bet my value is much close % wise than his!!

On another note Please go check the TOP share holder in December quarterly report with a simple small name! And see if he is present in this quarterly! OFC Perputual also was smart enough to sell as much as they could!

Ignorance is a bliss!

Is market already reacted to this quarterly reports .... (normally they get the info earlir ... :evil: :lol!: )

What is the first quarter earnings in 2010 and 2nd, 3rd and 4th quarter earnings also...

So that we can compare

Well the argument is going very well, it will be more nice than try to find out what others said, it will be more helpful if everybody argue on the Positive and negative side generally

I found out the answers

GRan 0.96 to 1.57 increase

TAFL 0.02 to 1.75 increase..

Second quarter and fourth quarter results should be better than this...

See following approximation of my PE analysis for GRAN

1.57+2.5+2+3 = 9.03 EPS ... So GRAN P/E will be 16 at current market price..

So no need to panic and sell..... I think market has already reacted to this quarterly results... Please comment.

Rajitha wrote:

npp wrote:

Rajitha wrote:Let me do a Analysis about KGAL like that !

WE can at least expect KGAL to have EPS of Rs 25 with the high rubber price in the coming quarter!
So that makes the annualized EPS of Rs 100! When considering sector PE of 16 we can expect this to go past Rs 1600 in the next big rally! OFC if we consider it as a rubber plantation and the best prime stock in plantation sector and put a PE of about 22 then the share price should be around Rs 2200!
SO the share is at a huge discount now!

In my opinion Plantation stocks will be the leaders in next few years.
KGAL, ...,....,.... are favourite shares for next few years.

that's way absurd. in which quarter did KGAL report an EPS of 25?

I can bet my value is much close % wise than his!!

On another note Please go check the TOP share holder in December quarterly report with a simple small name! And see if he is present in this quarterly! OFC Perputual also was smart enough to sell as much as they could!

Ignorance is a bliss!

hehe .. you are now saying that I would be in top share holders list last quarter and could not get out before this quarter.lol.. man i wish I have that much money like Arjun Allocius in the perputal capital have , to invest in the market.

any way as I said earlier and many other guys pointed out here : I have never said things like it will reach this this and give buy reccommendations like advisors... I always say with words such as 'I think",'may','can' , 'next few years' ,'Unless some thing bad happens','few quarters etc because there is always a risk involving in the stock market and short term fluctuations are always there.

check my earlier posts I have usually stated the phrase of 'Unless some thing bad happens ' to my posts.In this quarter poultry sector seems to be affected by outside coditions such as weather and government short term trade policies. Any economist can only give predictions based on available data and now today only the reports came to the market find that their profit margin has been affected by rain and government trade policy. But market has reacted to the this news on poultry sector well before this official results, indicating the information is leaked before the official annoucement as always in the cse.

The economists always give predictions based on available data and the expected demand and supply assumptions.
The predictions are always based on available data and prior assumptions made on that availabe data and future predictions change according to the new data.
I would like to remind that no economist can predict 100% otherwise there will be no recessions,business cycles at all in this world..

As I remember you said that GRAN will reach around 375

Pichchiya wrote:As I remember you said that GRAN will reach around 375

No. my predictions were GRAN - 275, TAFL - 300, BFL - 600 based on last year(4 quarters) results.
Now predictions has to change according to the new results.