GRAN & TAFL - 1Q2011 results out on cse website

Well the argument is going very well, it will be more nice than try to find out what others said, it will be more helpful if everybody argue on the Positive and negative side generally

I found out the answers

GRan 0.96 to 1.57 increase

TAFL 0.02 to 1.75 increase..

Second quarter and fourth quarter results should be better than this...

See following approximation of my PE analysis for GRAN

1.57+2.5+2+3 = 9.03 EPS ... So GRAN P/E will be 16 at current market price..

So no need to panic and sell..... I think market has already reacted to this quarterly results... Please comment.

Rajitha wrote:

npp wrote:

Rajitha wrote:Let me do a Analysis about KGAL like that !

WE can at least expect KGAL to have EPS of Rs 25 with the high rubber price in the coming quarter!
So that makes the annualized EPS of Rs 100! When considering sector PE of 16 we can expect this to go past Rs 1600 in the next big rally! OFC if we consider it as a rubber plantation and the best prime stock in plantation sector and put a PE of about 22 then the share price should be around Rs 2200!
SO the share is at a huge discount now!

In my opinion Plantation stocks will be the leaders in next few years.
KGAL, ...,....,.... are favourite shares for next few years.

that's way absurd. in which quarter did KGAL report an EPS of 25?

I can bet my value is much close % wise than his!!

On another note Please go check the TOP share holder in December quarterly report with a simple small name! And see if he is present in this quarterly! OFC Perputual also was smart enough to sell as much as they could!

Ignorance is a bliss!

hehe .. you are now saying that I would be in top share holders list last quarter and could not get out before this quarter.lol.. man i wish I have that much money like Arjun Allocius in the perputal capital have , to invest in the market.

any way as I said earlier and many other guys pointed out here : I have never said things like it will reach this this and give buy reccommendations like advisors... I always say with words such as 'I think",'may','can' , 'next few years' ,'Unless some thing bad happens','few quarters etc because there is always a risk involving in the stock market and short term fluctuations are always there.

check my earlier posts I have usually stated the phrase of 'Unless some thing bad happens ' to my posts.In this quarter poultry sector seems to be affected by outside coditions such as weather and government short term trade policies. Any economist can only give predictions based on available data and now today only the reports came to the market find that their profit margin has been affected by rain and government trade policy. But market has reacted to the this news on poultry sector well before this official results, indicating the information is leaked before the official annoucement as always in the cse.

The economists always give predictions based on available data and the expected demand and supply assumptions.
The predictions are always based on available data and prior assumptions made on that availabe data and future predictions change according to the new data.
I would like to remind that no economist can predict 100% otherwise there will be no recessions,business cycles at all in this world..

As I remember you said that GRAN will reach around 375

Pichchiya wrote:As I remember you said that GRAN will reach around 375

No. my predictions were GRAN - 275, TAFL - 300, BFL - 600 based on last year(4 quarters) results.
Now predictions has to change according to the new results.

True

econ wrote:

hehe .. you are now saying that I would be in top share holders list last quarter and could not get out before this quarter.lol.. man i wish I have that much money like Arjun Allocius in the perputal capital have , to invest in the market.

any way as I said earlier and many other guys pointed out here : I have never said things like it will reach this this and give buy reccommendations like advisors... I always say with words such as 'I think",'may','can' , 'next few years' ,'Unless some thing bad happens','few quarters etc because there is always a risk involving in the stock market and short term fluctuations are always there.

check my earlier posts I have usually stated the phrase of 'Unless some thing bad happens ' to my posts.In this quarter poultry sector seems to be affected by outside coditions such as weather and government short term trade policies. Any economist can only give predictions based on available data and now today only the reports came to the market find that their profit margin has been affected by rain and government trade policy. But market has reacted to the this news on poultry sector well before this official results, indicating the information is leaked before the official annoucement as always in the cse.

The economists always give predictions based on available data and the expected demand and supply assumptions.
The predictions are always based on available data and prior assumptions made on that availabe data and future predictions change according to the new data.
I would like to remind that no economist can predict 100% otherwise there will be no recessions,business cycles at all in this world..

Man are you seriously that self absorbed ? Where in the hell I talked about you in that post? Go check what I said and get the name list and compare names and see who is missing this time around! I don't even know you name to begin with, and I hardly doubt the guy I'm talking about is you considering he was one of the people to get the share running and had the brains to quite at perfect timing!

BTW some of the points you pointed out about poultry stocks are quite true! There are also quite more uncertainties in this sector! That was why this sector should be trading at a very low PE ratio and why it did in the past! Unfortunetly people assign high PE ratios only to promoted and manipulated stocks as usual!

ipoguru wrote:I found out the answers

GRan 0.96 to 1.57 increase

TAFL 0.02 to 1.75 increase..

Second quarter and fourth quarter results should be better than this...

See following approximation of my PE analysis for GRAN

1.57+2.5+2+3 = 9.03 EPS ... So GRAN P/E will be 16 at current market price..

So no need to panic and sell..... I think market has already reacted to this quarterly results... Please comment.

First lets get the truth out.

- Am I and are we dissapointed with TAFL/GRAN results this quarter. YES. We who invested were all expecting more naturally.
- were there people warning about generalizing earnings based on December . YES. And I agreed then and now. Hats off to them.

Now, is the company going down the drain and should we panic My answer is NO. Not yet especially if you are Long term investor. But then again it really depends on the individual mentality and intention to panic.



Shorterm :

The price has come down from a Rs 265 to Rs 145 now. I would say the current price is adjusted mostly to incorporate this off quarter issue. It appears the big investors had already done their selling including perpetual who got wind of this quarter issue and disposed part of their shares, which they bought at Rs 250.

Can there be further selling? If one panics and base their assumption on this 1 quarter EPS then this should be valued at around Rs 100. Then again should we do so? Is it correct? If we do so it is contradictory to the same statement to annulize eps from December isn't it?

Will there be people panicing and want to sell and will the price go down further. Maybe it depends on the person.

Below description is for Long term Investors ( who can hold for 1 year or more atleast. Not for short term traders)

My advice is do not panic yet. Watch for further develpments from now and next quarter. TAFL and GRAN went through much harder times from from 2007 to early 2010. There are recovering and have growth plan which will take time to take effect. As IPOGuru and Econ mentioned their year to year growth is not bad. It just quarter to quarter is bad.

The reason as mentioned on GRAN report,

"As the local maize production was badly affected by the unfavorable weather conditions early this year and the Government restriction on importation of maize still continues, the sourcing of the main raw material has become a major challenge for the poultry industry.
In spite of high raw material prices, the company was able to make a profit during the period under review mainly due to its cost effective feed formulation & efficient operations."


ALso notice on the report NOTE

EPF has roughly 5 million shares
Laugf Gas limited has 1 miilion
Perpetual still has collectively about 1.1 million
Nimal Perera has 0.4 million.

I am not sure whether the latter 2 sold again but EPF and Laugf might go for long term on this. They still have a reason. If EPF and Laugf quits next quarter I would be worried more.



Finally a note to my fellow investors:

Folks lets pull our selves together here.None of us are perfect. We are volunteerign our free time to comment and help here. I don;t beleive any of us professionals and even if so nobody can predict market 100% though they may claim to do so falsely . Please do not blame others ( unless someone insults and abuses what you say where I leave the judgement upto you.

Finally, let us be united in anothers time of misery and help each other and not prove who is right and who is wrong to show superiority.
We all have made mistakes. But is GRAN/TAFL a mistake for long term? People who warned about GRAN /TAFL situation in the short term thank you for you insight.

Excellent Post !! Brilliant advise , Finally some consolation for chicks.

great well balanced post by slstock.

EPS is calculated by adding all 4 quarter EPS.
Not multiplying by one quarter result by 4.
GRAN and TAFL having improvement on 1st quarter results compare with 2010 1st quarter result.
I feel that we don't want worry.
GRAN and TAFL perfomance is good enough.




Quater results pattern of GRAN.

rm wrote:EPS is calculated by adding all 4 quarter EPS.
Not multiplying by one quarter result by 4.
GRAN and TAFL having improvement on 1st quarter results compare with 2010 1st quarter result.
I feel that we don't want worry.
GRAN and TAFL perfomance is good enough.




Quater results pattern of GRAN.

Good prospects...

rm wrote:EPS is calculated by adding all 4 quarter EPS.
Not multiplying by one quarter result by 4.
GRAN and TAFL having improvement on 1st quarter results compare with 2010 1st quarter result.
I feel that we don't want worry.
GRAN and TAFL perfomance is good enough.




Quater results pattern of GRAN.

Great work. Pls let me also know how you got those, so in the future it will be helpful.
Thanks man

Aladin:

You can get these details from Anual Reports published in CSE web site.

rm wrote:EPS is calculated by adding all 4 quarter EPS.
Not multiplying by one quarter result by 4.
GRAN and TAFL having improvement on 1st quarter results compare with 2010 1st quarter result.
I feel that we don't want worry.
GRAN and TAFL perfomance is good enough.




Quater results pattern of GRAN.

mate i hav bit confusion tht u hav taken the group PE 1.57 but company PE is 1.04

i hv this confusion when select the PE do wanna get company PE or group PE

how to check that i had same issue with PCH & LGL too

cheerz

BFL is a good company and I would hold my lot till this December and reap the benefits.

No worries at all.

I will will show its colors soon.

Just my thought

Rajitha wrote:

npp wrote:

Rajitha wrote:Let me do a Analysis about KGAL like that !

WE can at least expect KGAL to have EPS of Rs 25 with the high rubber price in the coming quarter!
So that makes the annualized EPS of Rs 100! When considering sector PE of 16 we can expect this to go past Rs 1600 in the next big rally! OFC if we consider it as a rubber plantation and the best prime stock in plantation sector and put a PE of about 22 then the share price should be around Rs 2200!
SO the share is at a huge discount now!

In my opinion Plantation stocks will be the leaders in next few years.
KGAL, ...,....,.... are favourite shares for next few years.

that's way absurd. in which quarter did KGAL report an EPS of 25?

I can bet my value is much close % wise than his!!

On another note Please go check the TOP share holder in December quarterly report with a simple small name! And see if he is present in this quarterly! OFC Perputual also was smart enough to sell as much as they could!

Ignorance is a bliss!

Rajitha's prediction went wrong on KGAL as the same way others predicted on poultry stocks.

Monster wrote:

Rajitha wrote:

npp wrote:

Rajitha wrote:Let me do a Analysis about KGAL like that !

WE can at least expect KGAL to have EPS of Rs 25 with the high rubber price in the coming quarter!
So that makes the annualized EPS of Rs 100! When considering sector PE of 16 we can expect this to go past Rs 1600 in the next big rally! OFC if we consider it as a rubber plantation and the best prime stock in plantation sector and put a PE of about 22 then the share price should be around Rs 2200!
SO the share is at a huge discount now!

In my opinion Plantation stocks will be the leaders in next few years.
KGAL, ...,....,.... are favourite shares for next few years.

that's way absurd. in which quarter did KGAL report an EPS of 25? :D

I can bet my value is much close % wise than his!!

On another note Please go check the TOP share holder in December quarterly report with a simple small name! And see if he is present in this quarterly! OFC Perputual also was smart enough to sell as much as they could!

Ignorance is a bliss!

Rajitha's prediction went wrong on KGAL as the same way others predicted on poultry stocks. :lol!:

Hey I think his value is % wise more closer than earlier value

4/1.6 = 2.5 (GRAN)

25/12.01 = 2.08 (KGAL) So Rajitha won right :roll:


The more important question what will be the KGAL price on Monday

280 rupees....

ipoguru wrote:

Monster wrote:

Rajitha wrote:

npp wrote:

Rajitha wrote:Let me do a Analysis about KGAL like that !

WE can at least expect KGAL to have EPS of Rs 25 with the high rubber price in the coming quarter!
So that makes the annualized EPS of Rs 100! When considering sector PE of 16 we can expect this to go past Rs 1600 in the next big rally! OFC if we consider it as a rubber plantation and the best prime stock in plantation sector and put a PE of about 22 then the share price should be around Rs 2200!
SO the share is at a huge discount now!

In my opinion Plantation stocks will be the leaders in next few years.
KGAL, ...,....,.... are favourite shares for next few years.

that's way absurd. in which quarter did KGAL report an EPS of 25?

I can bet my value is much close % wise than his!!

On another note Please go check the TOP share holder in December quarterly report with a simple small name! And see if he is present in this quarterly! OFC Perputual also was smart enough to sell as much as they could!

Ignorance is a bliss!

Rajitha's prediction went wrong on KGAL as the same way others predicted on poultry stocks.

Hey I think his value is % wise more closer than earlier value

4/1.6 = 2.5 (GRAN)

25/12.01 = 2.08 (KGAL) So Rajitha won right


The more important question what will be the KGAL price on Monday

280 rupees....

If it 280 I'm the happiest person to be as I'm currently having massive amount. But over optimism not work on this tight market as what I feel.