Market turnaround -Technical Signals witnessed!!

According to my technical analysis market is likely to turnaround in the coming week. Buy signals are witnessed in many stocks including ASI and MPI. MacD's, Stochastic Oscillators, Wiliams, RMO all positive. All leading and lagging signal indicators show an upward trend. I am not the best around, but I am sure our Technical Guru.. GANN knows better than all of us.

Let's wait for his report!!!!

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Above is the weekly chart of ASI.

I would be bullish only when ASI closes above 7320(Marked in cyan color)
Also note how the market changed the trend around the 50% re-tracement.

DIST looks promising too
http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t2203-dist-broke-the-triangle

Thanks.. Gann
I agree with you on candlesticks on fibonacci retracement, with the indicative support and resistant, but have a look the MacD of MPI and the leading oscillators. ASI is just about to break the signal line. Also the RMO and the rainbow!!! All look very positive..

Quibit wrote:Thanks..
I agree with you on candlesticks on fibonacci retracement, but have a look the MacD of MPI and the leading oscillators. ASI is just about to break the signal line. Also the RMO and the rainbow!!! All look very positive..

To confirm uptrend you need to see a higher high and a higher low. We have the higher low from last week. ASI is required to close above 7320 to post a higher high. Also The probability for ASI to move sideways is also high. ASI showed some sideways movement on the 25th.

BTW MILANKA looks good.

gann wrote:To confirm uptrend you need to see a higher high and a higher low. We have the higher low from last week. ASI is required to close above 7320 to post a higher high. Also The probability for ASI to move sideways is also high. ASI showed some sideways movement on the 25th.

Hi Gann,

I did a similar analysis (but I prefer the daily candles). I too second your opinion on the ASI.

After the double-top and the breaking of the key support level (7498), the ASI crashed down only to recover at the 61.8% level (no surprise there!). Now its bouncing along at 50% level. Though there is a higher-low, the ASI must give us a higher-high around the 38.2% level (according to my chart its 7354 - slightly higher than yours) to indicate a clear Northern direction. This I see as a critical indicator, because the current 50% level has been a Resistance in early October. So hopefully, it will become a Support now.

Once the 38.2% level is broken through, the next resistance could be 23.6% level (7498-7549 region).
The reason is the valley between the double-top.

--------------------

Another interesting thing was shown in the RSI. The ASI was in "overbought" region for more than a month. It moved past 80 for a considerable period as well. But on the recovery, the ASI barely went into the "oversold" area. It turned back around 35. In other words, the ASI was quite content at being in the "overbought" area than being in the "oversold" area. So I believe, that the market is capable of quick recovery. However, it must show clear evidence as I (and Gann) observed above.

(Pls click on the image below to view the full chart)
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Thanks for the Charts and information.

gann wrote:

Quibit wrote:Thanks..
I agree with you on candlesticks on fibonacci retracement, but have a look the MacD of MPI and the leading oscillators. ASI is just about to break the signal line. Also the RMO and the rainbow!!! All look very positive..

To confirm uptrend you need to see a higher high and a higher low. We have the higher low from last week. ASI is required to close above 7320 to post a higher high. Also The probability for ASI to move sideways is also high. ASI showed some sideways movement on the 25th.

BTW MILANKA looks good.

yes ASI 7320 is a key level according to my charts also
but this wapo is killing every one.

Hi Supun,

Thanks for sharing your analysis. I have noted some keypoints you had mentioned.
What do you think of MILANKA?

Meta Trader wrote:

yes ASI 7320 is a key level according to my charts also
but this wapo is killing every one.

APO WAPO EPO

Observations on Milanka

1. Milanka has recovered above a major support line (6800), which had been strong in November and December as well (the green line).

2. Milanka started forming the double-top days before the ASI.

3. Despite the current Northern movement, the main trend still remains bearish (note the long blue trend line).

4. There seems to be a resistance around 7350 area. It has been clearly broken only in late September where high momentum was seen (note the trend line near late September and RSI above 70).

5. Milanka is still below the 38.2% level. The next key level would be the 61.8% (note the perfect alignment between the 61.8% level (7100) and the valley between the double-top. In addition, 7100 has been S/R since mid October).

6. RSI on Milanka has clearly moved out of the "oversold" area. Note that, at its worse, the RSI on Milanka has been around 18!


Analysis:
- The Milanka constituents were offered at good prices lately. This is the reason for the RSI to reach lows around 18. (RSI was low because of the stronger negative changes). But a Bullish trend is now evident from the last week's performance on Milanka (In addition, RSI currently hovers around 40-50).

- Milanka is sitting on a stable support (6800) and moving up. Its possible for it to consolidate around the 61.8% level. The current upward momentum could allow that (note the blue trend line starting from 22nd March). According to the crossing of the trend lines with the 61.8% level, and the upward pointing RSI, this could happen within this week itself (or early next week).

- In order to indicate real growth, Milanka needs to prove itself by clearly breaking above, on reaching the 61.8% level.

- IF Milanka can do so, then the only resistance level is at 7350. However, as seen in late September, this resistance can easily be broken if there is strong momentum. From last week's price action as well as current RSI value, such momentum is possible.

Conclusion
According to Milanka's performance, the market has potential for a strong upward momentum within the next two weeks.

This is just my personal view of the market, so guys pls don't hold me against this, ok. :)

(Click on image to view completely)
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gann wrote:Hi Supun,
Thanks for sharing your analysis. I have noted some keypoints you had mentioned.

you are welcome. Would like to know which keypoints interested you...

gann wrote:
What do you think of MILANKA?

Posted above.

All this is very well if the market upwards moves had been organic. As has been mentioned here many times it's been anything but. Even a couple of brokers acknowledged that the upwards movements had an artificial flavour to it (eg: NDB Stock brokers report published in the papers last week).

Even today it's obvious that someone is making a valiant effort to keep the index afloat but without much success.

tubal wrote:All this is very well if the market upwards moves had been organic. As has been mentioned here many times it's been anything but. Even a couple of brokers acknowledged that the upwards movements had an artificial flavour to it (eg: NDB Stock brokers report published in the papers last week).

What you say is quite true in real life.

However, my post was based on an interpretation of the charts and nothing else.

My view is to stick to ones own judgment/analysis, whilst acknowledging such artificial movements.
There are shepherds and then there are sheep... As per my understanding, there are two options for success in this kind of a market - either be a Shepherd OR be a Black Sheep :) (well... there is always the third option of being a broker)

I don't have the millions to become a shepherd (or a broker), so I rely more on technicals rather than fundamentals, hoping that it would make me more of a black-sheep.

I may be wrong here. But it keeps me sane and hopefully in profit. Just like you implied, if the price-action is not consistent with fundamentals, what other option do we have? In my opinion, its technicals. And hence this sub-forum for technical traders.

But fundamentals has its place on longer term views. No amount of manipulation will erase that!

I mean no offense to anyone. I merely wanted to clarify my position with regard to trading, even during artificial market conditions.

Green trades to all!

supun.perera wrote:

gann wrote:Hi Supun,
Thanks for sharing your analysis. I have noted some keypoints you had mentioned.

you are welcome. Would like to know which keypoints interested you...

gann wrote:
What do you think of MILANKA?

Posted above.

Milanka index has gome up today.

Aamiable wrote:

Milanka index has gome up today.

I would like to see MILANKA trading above 6900 to be optimistic

gann wrote:

Aamiable wrote:

Milanka index has gome up today.

I would like to see MILANKA trading above 6900 to be optimistic

There some early indications. Banks have picked up today , some diversified blue chips and so on.

gann wrote:
I would like to see MILANKA trading above 6900 to be optimistic :bounce: :bounce:

yes.... 6900 is the 38.2% Fib level...

btw, Milanka is up only by 0.39 ... well.. at least it didn't go down... :scratch:

Supun, et al, the point I am trying to raise is that both Technical analysis and Fundamental analysis in this market is equally useful (or useless take your pick).

I don't think you were around in early February, when some of us called a market top. The ASI continued to climb after that point and it looked like the call was wrong. But in actual fact the market continued to decline while the ASI kept going on up.

First the ASI went up because of the GREG group, then it was oil palm, then of course the notorious WAPO. if you look at the charts of individual stocks, you will find that almost all of them had their peak during the first 10 days of February. This phenomena was identified and reported here.

The the ASI started to dip, it actually started happening around the time that many of the shares found support levels. So once again the majority of the shares in the market kept going up while the index declined. The advance/decline ratio will show you that.

Even today, the intra day chart had many ups and downs. Compare that with the intraday charts of SLTL, CFIN, COMB and BUKI. WAPO no longer has the impact it used to have. But there are plenty of better and more subtle alternatives

supun.perera wrote:

Would like to know which keypoints interested you...

Once the 38.2% level is broken through, the next resistance could be 23.6% level (7498-7549 region).

The keypoint is relavance given to 23.6 based on previous pivot point.

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According to my MACD analysis on ASI, its about to cross the line. SO hopefully we can expect the line to be crossed in couple of days. According to stochastic Oscillator clearly ASI have come up from over sold region. But its trend has been disturbed in last couple of days. So to be optimistic we can call it due to WAPO and some credit clearing issued caused that.

As a conclusion i feel that ASI is on the fence, with more advantage for upside movement. Next couple of days will bring us the initiation indicators of the movement. Hopefully should be green due to ; End of March credit clearing, UBC commencement, Most of the investors feel optimistic these days.

tubal wrote:Supun, et al, the point I am trying to raise is that both Technical analysis and Fundamental analysis in this market is equally useful (or useless take your pick).

LOL yes....I agree that both have their uses.

Push up SLTL, JKH, DIAL, CFIN and COMB simultaneously and viola the index which was down 0.75% five minutes ago is now down only 0.1% push up BUKI, CARS and woah there the market is green yipeeeee!

Never mind that we have 100 counters that have declined while only 50 have gone up

Sorry guys small error. The second stage of the push didn't involve BUKI and CARS after all. It was SLTL being pushed up a little further and then HNB.

chamith wrote:[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]
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According to my MACD analysis on ASI, its about to cross the line. SO hopefully we can expect the line to be crossed in couple of days. According to stochastic Oscillator clearly ASI have come up from over sold region. But its trend has been disturbed in last couple of days. So to be optimistic we can call it due to WAPO and some credit clearing issued caused that.

As a conclusion i feel that ASI is on the fence, with more advantage for upside movement. Next couple of days will bring us the initiation indicators of the movement. Hopefully should be green due to ; End of March credit clearing, UBC commencement, Most of the investors feel optimistic these days.

Hi Chamith, What is MACD?How to read it from the graph?